Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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357
FXUS64 KMAF 231651
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1151 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue at southeast New Mexico
and southwest Texas terminals through Sunday morning. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible mainly from southeast New Mexico into
Davis Mountains area, potentially impacting CNM, HOB, PEQ and INK.
The probability of occurrence is too low to include in area TAFs.
Winds will be generally southerly at less than 12 knots with
stronger southerly winds over the Permian Basin.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas during the next 24 hours.  Isolated thunderstorms are expected
to develop this afternoon and evening, but probabilities are too low
to carry a mention at any area TAF sites.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Our area continues to remain on the west side of the upper ridge
that has been nearly stationary over the Lower Mississippi River
Valley this week. Showers and storms have formed along a sfc trough
axis the last few afternoons and will again today. However, upper
level energy will be displaced well to the north unlike earlier this
week. The upper ridge will also build west across more of our region
today into early next week. For these reasons, only isolated storms
are expected in the higher terrain and adjacent areas for the next
several days. Temperatures will remain about 5 degrees above normal
with very little change in mid level heights.

The upper ridge to our east then begins to break down as a trough
develops across the central U.S. This trough will likely bring a
weak front into the area along with better rain chances late next
week. Timing of the front is in question as the GFS is faster with
the trough while the ECMWF is slower and deeper. Either way we
should see temperatures fall back to near normal for at least a few
days.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05

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029
FXUS64 KMAF 231052
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas during the next 24 hours.  Isolated thunderstorms are expected
to develop this afternoon and evening, but probabilities are too low
to carry a mention at any area TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Our area continues to remain on the west side of the upper ridge
that has been nearly stationary over the Lower Mississippi River
Valley this week. Showers and storms have formed along a sfc trough
axis the last few afternoons and will again today. However, upper
level energy will be displaced well to the north unlike earlier this
week. The upper ridge will also build west across more of our region
today into early next week. For these reasons, only isolated storms
are expected in the higher terrain and adjacent areas for the next
several days. Temperatures will remain about 5 degrees above normal
with very little change in mid level heights.

The upper ridge to our east then begins to break down as a trough
develops across the central U.S. This trough will likely bring a
weak front into the area along with better rain chances late next
week. Timing of the front is in question as the GFS is faster with
the trough while the ECMWF is slower and deeper. Either way we
should see temperatures fall back to near normal for at least a few
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  71  95  71  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              99  75  97  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                95  68  96  70  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 101  76 100  77  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           95  72  95  72  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          87  66  89  66  /  10  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                   93  66  94  68  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   88  59  87  60  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    96  73  96  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  95  74  95  74  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    98  72  99  73  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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355
FXUS64 KMAF 230914
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
414 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Our area continues to remain on the west side of the upper ridge
that has been nearly stationary over the Lower Mississippi River
Valley this week. Showers and storms have formed along a sfc trough
axis the last few afternoons and will again today. However, upper
level energy will be displaced well to the north unlike earlier this
week. The upper ridge will also build west across more of our region
today into early next week. For these reasons, only isolated storms
are expected in the higher terrain and adjacent areas for the next
several days. Temperatures will remain about 5 degrees above normal
with very little change in mid level heights.

The upper ridge to our east then begins to break down as a trough
develops across the central U.S. This trough will likely bring a
weak front into the area along with better rain chances late next
week. Timing of the front is in question as the GFS is faster with
the trough while the ECMWF is slower and deeper. Either way we
should see temperatures fall back to near normal for at least a few
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  71  95  71  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              99  75  97  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                95  68  96  70  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 101  76 100  77  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           95  72  95  72  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          87  66  89  66  /  10  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                   93  66  94  68  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   88  59  87  60  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    96  73  96  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  95  74  95  74  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    98  72  99  73  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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757
FXUS64 KMAF 230502
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Despite convection moving north from the Davis Mountains, think TSRA
will stay west of KPEQ, KINK and KHOB or decrease before arriving at
these sites.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014/

An upper level high centered over the Mississippi River valley has
built slightly further west today than yesterday. This is evident
in visible satellite imagery showing only cumulus developing in
the higher elevations and in southeast New Mexico, and even that
is ragged cu. The past couple of days have seen convection reach
the Midland/Odessa area but today it will be more limited and
generally west of the Pecos River.

The high will remain stationary through the weekend and into early
next week causing a repeat pattern of slightly above normal highs
and a slight chance for storms out west. Things begin to change by
the middle of next week as a deep upper level trough moves across
the western CONUS and into the Central Plains. All models are in
good agreement with this feature as well as an accompanying
surface front on Wednesday night. Convection will begin to spread
east and southeast ahead of the front Wednesday then will continue
Thursday and perhaps even into Friday before upper ridging once
again starts to dry us out.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


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292
FXUS64 KMAF 222312
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be ongoing
convection near western terminals this evening. Generally have
strong southeast winds at all sites except CNM, where southwest
winds prevail. Currently have scattered TSRA extending from the
Davis Mountains north into southeast New Mexico. This activity is
only affecting PEQ and CNM at the moment but could see HOB and INK
reporting TSRA shortly. FST and MAF will remain dry. Will continue
to monitor radar trends and amend if/when needed. Isolated
thunderstorm chances will continue overnight and Saturday for the
same areas but will hold off on any mention in the TAF beyond this
evening. VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday however any
thunderstorm that affects a terminal may produce heavy rainfall
that will briefly reduce vsbys.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level high centered over the Mississippi River valley has
built slightly further west today than yesterday. This is evident
in visible satellite imagery showing only cumulus developing in
the higher elevations and in southeast New Mexico, and even that
is ragged cu. The past couple of days have seen convection reach
the Midland/Odessa area but today it will be more limited and
generally west of the Pecos River.

The high will remain stationary through the weekend and into early
next week causing a repeat pattern of slightly above normal highs
and a slight chance for storms out west. Things begin to change by
the middle of next week as a deep upper level trough moves across
the western CONUS and into the Central Plains. All models are in
good agreement with this feature as well as an accompanying
surface front on Wednesday night. Convection will begin to spread
east and southeast ahead of the front Wednesday then will continue
Thursday and perhaps even into Friday before upper ridging once
again starts to dry us out.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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267
FXUS64 KMAF 221932
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
232 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level high centered over the Mississippi River valley has
built slightly further west today than yesterday. This is evident
in visible satellite imagery showing only cumulus developing in
the higher elevations and in southeast New Mexico, and even that
is ragged cu. The past couple of days have seen convection reach
the Midland/Odessa area but today it will be more limited and
generally west of the Pecos River.

The high will remain stationary through the weekend and into early
next week causing a repeat pattern of slightly above normal highs
and a slight chance for storms out west. Things begin to change by
the middle of next week as a deep upper level trough moves across
the western CONUS and into the Central Plains. All models are in
good agreement with this feature as well as an accompanying
surface front on Wednesday night. Convection will begin to spread
east and southeast ahead of the front Wednesday then will continue
Thursday and perhaps even into Friday before upper ridging once
again starts to dry us out.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71  95  70  95  /  20  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              71  96  72  96  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                71  95  69  96  /  30  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  72  97  73  97  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  96  71  96  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  86  64  87  /  30  20  10  20
HOBBS NM                   69  94  67  94  /  30  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   63  88  61  88  /  30  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  96  72  96  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  72  95  72  96  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    74  98  72  99  /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/10

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180
FXUS64 KMAF 221723
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1217 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There is a chance of thunderstorms across the area with CNM and PEQ
having the best chances.  Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions
are expected.  Winds will mainly be out of the south with gusts and
elevated winds this afternoon dimishing overnight and returning
Saturday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014/

Our area continues to be sandwiched in between a slow moving
upper low over the Desert SW and the upper ridge over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Not much change is expected today as
compared to yesterday as we still have a sfc trough axis over the
area along with disturbances moving north within the weak flow
aloft. One of these disturbances is likely helping produce heavy
rain across El Paso this morning. Most of the models have come
into a bit better agreement regarding this afternoons rain
chances. The sfc trough axis should lie somewhere across SE NM
south into the Davis Mountains. This is where the highest PoPs
will be placed, tapering down to the east. Even though storms will
likely move north they will also propagate east along outflow
boundaries. PWATS remain near 1.5" so heavy rain is a good
possibility with these storms especially as they train over the
same areas.

Convection will become more isolated and confined mostly to SE NM
and the higher terrain of W TX this weekend and most of next week as
the sfc trough retrogrades west. Temperatures will remain above
normal into next week as the ridge continues its influence over us.

Another trough is expected to dig into the Rockies early next week,
however models disagree with the strength. The ECMWF is deeper with
the trough while the GFS is more progressive and quickly builds a
ridge across the western U.S. Both models push a cold front into the
Southern Plains with precip developing along it. Will not change too
much in the extended just yet as the models continue to resolve the
pattern next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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467
FXUS64 KMAF 221101
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A low level jet over the Permian Basin is lifting to the northeast
with KMAF radar indicating low level winds diminishing.  Therefore,
will not carry low level wind shear at KMAF.  VFR conditions will
prevail areawide through the period.  Thunderstorms will develop
again this afternoon/evening, but probabilities are too low to
carry at any TAF sites.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014/

Our area continues to be sandwiched in between a slow moving
upper low over the Desert SW and the upper ridge over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Not much change is expected today as
compared to yesterday as we still have a sfc trough axis over the
area along with disturbances moving north within the weak flow
aloft. One of these disturbances is likely helping produce heavy
rain across El Paso this morning. Most of the models have come
into a bit better agreement regarding this afternoons rain
chances. The sfc trough axis should lie somewhere across SE NM
south into the Davis Mountains. This is where the highest PoPs
will be placed, tapering down to the east. Even though storms will
likely move north they will also propagate east along outflow
boundaries. PWATS remain near 1.5" so heavy rain is a good
possibility with these storms especially as they train over the
same areas.

Convection will become more isolated and confined mostly to SE NM
and the higher terrain of W TX this weekend and most of next week as
the sfc trough retrogrades west. Temperatures will remain above
normal into next week as the ridge continues its influence over us.

Another trough is expected to dig into the Rockies early next week,
however models disagree with the strength. The ECMWF is deeper with
the trough while the GFS is more progressive and quickly builds a
ridge across the western U.S. Both models push a cold front into the
Southern Plains with precip developing along it. Will not change too
much in the extended just yet as the models continue to resolve the
pattern next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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522
FXUS64 KMAF 220927
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
427 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Our area continues to be sandwiched in between a slow moving upper
low over the Desert SW and the upper ridge over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Not much change is expected today as
compared to yesterday as we still have a sfc trough axis over the
area along with disturbances moving north within the weak flow
aloft. One of these disturbances is likely helping produce heavy
rain across El Paso this morning. Most of the models have come into
a bit better agreement regarding this afternoons rain chances. The
sfc trough axis should lie somewhere across SE NM south into the
Davis Mountains. This is where the highest PoPs will be placed,
tapering down to the east. Even though storms will likely move north
they will also propagate east along outflow boundaries. PWATS remain
near 1.5" so heavy rain is a good possibility with these storms
especially as they train over the same areas.

Convection will become more isolated and confined mostly to SE NM
and the higher terrain of W TX this weekend and most of next week as
the sfc trough retrogrades west. Temperatures will remain above
normal into next week as the ridge continues its influence over us.

Another trough is expected to dig into the Rockies early next week,
however models disagree with the strength. The ECMWF is deeper with
the trough while the GFS is more progressive and quickly builds a
ridge across the western U.S. Both models push a cold front into the
Southern Plains with precip developing along it. Will not change too
much in the extended just yet as the models continue to resolve the
pattern next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  69  95  70  /  20  20  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              97  73  96  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                96  71  95  69  /  30  30  20  10
DRYDEN TX                 101  74 100  77  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  70  96  71  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          84  65  87  66  /  30  30  20  10
HOBBS NM                   94  67  93  67  /  30  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   89  60  88  59  /  30  30  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    97  72  96  73  /  20  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  96  72  95  74  /  20  20  10  10
WINK TX                   100  73  99  73  /  30  30  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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276
FXUS64 KMAF 220429
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1129 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will slowly decrease with time, but will also not
affect any area TAF sites.  VFR conditions are expected to prevail
tonight through Friday.  Thunderstorms will develop again Friday
afternoon, but probabilities are too low to include at any TAF
sites attm.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014/

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern boarder of
California and northern Mexico with an upper ridge over the Gulf
coast states. This is resulting in southwest flow the Texas
panhandle and eastern New Mexico which is bringing in mid-level
subtropical moisture. The increase in moisture along with an
increase in omega values across the Big Bend region, southeast New
Mexico, and the Guadalupe Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across this area this afternoon. Thunderstorms will
also be possible today across most of the Permian Basin and the
Davis Mountains with CAPE values around or above 2,000 J/kg. Bulk
shear values will be low across the whole area so not expecting
widespread severe development. Upper level winds are still fairly
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding. The PWAT value on the
12z MAF sounding was 1.45 which would support heavy rain. High
temperatures today will be near normal and similar to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and mostly western portions of the CWA
through the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern
extent of the precipitation will depend on the strength and
placement of the upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of
next week, an upper trough will move over the Central/Northern
Plains which which will cause the upper ridge to shift eastward and
weaken over the CWA.  The GFS and ECMWF are differing greatly on the
timing and placement of this upper trough.  Temperatures will not
change too much through the forecast period and should remain near
normal despite the presence of a surface trough across eastern New
Mexico and West Texas.  The GFS indicates a cold front moving into
the area next Thursday as a result of the upper trough passing to
the north so will continue to monitor this.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/80

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987
FXUS64 KMAF 212328
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
628 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be ongoing
convection near terminals this evening. Currently have scattered
SHRA/TSRA across the region with strong southerly winds in place.
Activity only affecting PEQ, INK and FST at the moment and think the
other terminals are okay for now, based on current radar trends.
Otherwise, will continue to monitor and amend when needed.
Thunderstorms chances will continue overnight and Friday but will
hold off on any mention in the TAF beyond this evening. VFR
conditions will prevail through Friday however this evenings
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall that will briefly reduce
vsbys. Winds will remain gusty at some sites for the next couple of
hours then increase once again Friday afternoon at MAF and FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern boarder of
California and northern Mexico with an upper ridge over the Gulf
coast states.  This is resulting in southwest flow the Texas
panhandle and eastern New Mexico which is bringing in mid-level
subtropical moisture.  The increase in moisture along with an
increase in omega values across the Big Bend region, southeast New
Mexico, and the Guadalupe Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across this area this afternoon.  Thunderstorms will
also be possible today across most of the Permian Basin and the
Davis Mountains with CAPE values around or above 2,000 J/kg.  Bulk
shear values will be low across the whole area so not expecting
widespread severe development.  Upper level winds are still fairly
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  The PWAT value on the 12z
MAF sounding was 1.45 which would support heavy rain.  High
temperatures today will be near normal and similar to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and mostly western portions of the CWA
through the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern
extent of the precipitation will depend on the strength and
placement of the upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of
next week, an upper trough will move over the Central/Northern
Plains which which will cause the upper ridge to shift eastward and
weaken over the CWA.  The GFS and ECMWF are differing greatly on the
timing and placement of this upper trough.  Temperatures will not
change too much through the forecast period and should remain near
normal despite the presence of a surface trough across eastern New
Mexico and West Texas.  The GFS indicates a cold front moving into
the area next Thursday as a result of the upper trough passing to
the north so will continue to monitor this.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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830
FXUS64 KMAF 211926
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
223 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern boarder of
California and northern Mexico with an upper ridge over the Gulf
coast states.  This is resulting in southwest flow the Texas
panhandle and eastern New Mexico which is bringing in mid-level
subtropical moisture.  The increase in moisture along with an
increase in omega values across the Big Bend region, southeast New
Mexico, and the Guadalupe Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across this area this afternoon.  Thunderstorms will
also be possible today across most of the Permian Basin and the
Davis Mountains with CAPE values around or above 2,000 J/kg.  Bulk
shear values will be low across the whole area so not expecting
widespread severe development.  Upper level winds are still fairly
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  The PWAT value on the 12z
MAF sounding was 1.45 which would support heavy rain.  High
temperatures today will be near normal and similar to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and mostly western portions of the CWA
through the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern
extent of the precipitation will depend on the strength and
placement of the upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of
next week, an upper trough will move over the Central/Northern
Plains which which will cause the upper ridge to shift eastward and
weaken over the CWA.  The GFS and ECMWF are differing greatly on the
timing and placement of this upper trough.  Temperatures will not
change too much through the forecast period and should remain near
normal despite the presence of a surface trough across eastern New
Mexico and West Texas.  The GFS indicates a cold front moving into
the area next Thursday as a result of the upper trough passing to
the north so will continue to monitor this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  94  69  93  /  30  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              73  96  70  95  /  20  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                71  93  70  92  /  30  40  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  74 100  76  99  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  95  70  95  /  20  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  83  63  80  /  30  40  40  30
HOBBS NM                   68  91  67  90  /  30  30  30  30
MARFA TX                   62  88  60  85  /  40  30  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  95  71  94  /  20  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  73  95  71  94  /  20  20  20  20
WINK TX                    76  99  72  97  /  30  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/80

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964
FXUS64 KMAF 211713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and south winds to continue this TAF period. There
will be some isolated TS developing this afternoon/evening from
20Z-02Z but coverage will not be enough to include in TAFs. Any
storms affecting the terminals will be handled with amendments.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The overall pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours. The
upper low has become stationary along the CA coastline as the upper
ridge maintains its position along the Gulf Coast. These systems
will play a great deal into our weather over the next couple of
days. The GFS and NAM have struggled with the strength of the upper
high as well as the location of a sfc trough over the area. This
caused them to generate precip too far west and underestimate the
overall coverage yesterday. The ECMWF has performed the best along
with some of the short term high-res models. Model QPF seems to
align with an upper level shear axis across the area which will
likely help with convection today and Friday. Subtle disturbances
in the weak flow aloft may also enhance convection, but these are
hard to detect until cu begins to develop during the afternoon.
With the above said, higher PoPs are warranted for western
portions of the PB and SE NM for today and Friday. We may again
see some heavy rain as Gulf moisture continues to stream in with
PWATS near 1.5".

Convection should be confined mostly to the higher terrain and SE NM
by the weekend as the upper ridge builds west. Temperatures will
remain a few degrees above normal across most of the area with near
normal values across the west where the better chance for rain lies.

Models begin to diverge next week with the GFS digging a trough
across the Rockies and weakening the ridge. The ECMWF keeps a strong
ridge in place before weakening it late in the week. Will stay with
persistence here and keep it warm and mostly dry until model
solutions converge better.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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639
FXUS64 KMAF 210951
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
451 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Return return flow will continue next 24 hours, w/a 40+kt LLJ forecast
to develop near the end of the forecast period. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field again by late morning,
w/bases 4-8 kft agl. VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours.
Sfc trough is forecast to shift WNW later today, as will the
chances for convection. We`ll insert a mention at KCNM, which
models suggest will have the best chances later today. Latest
buffer soundings for KMAF suggest brief IFR cigs at KMAF this
morning, which received 1/4-1/2" of rain yesterday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The overall pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours. The
upper low has become stationary along the CA coastline as the upper
ridge maintains its position along the Gulf Coast. These systems
will play a great deal into our weather over the next couple of
days. The GFS and NAM have struggled with the strength of the upper
high as well as the location of a sfc trough over the area. This
caused them to generate precip too far west and underestimate the
overall coverage yesterday. The ECMWF has performed the best along
with some of the short term high-res models. Model QPF seems to
align with an upper level shear axis across the area which will
likely help with convection today and Friday. Subtle disturbances
in the weak flow aloft may also enhance convection, but these are
hard to detect until cu begins to develop during the afternoon.
With the above said, higher PoPs are warranted for western
portions of the PB and SE NM for today and Friday. We may again
see some heavy rain as Gulf moisture continues to stream in with
PWATS near 1.5".

Convection should be confined mostly to the higher terrain and SE NM
by the weekend as the upper ridge builds west. Temperatures will
remain a few degrees above normal across most of the area with near
normal values across the west where the better chance for rain lies.

Models begin to diverge next week with the GFS digging a trough
across the Rockies and weakening the ridge. The ECMWF keeps a strong
ridge in place before weakening it late in the week. Will stay with
persistence here and keep it warm and mostly dry until model
solutions converge better.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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226
FXUS64 KMAF 210926
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
426 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The overall pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours. The
upper low has become stationary along the CA coastline as the upper
ridge maintains its position along the Gulf Coast. These systems
will play a great deal into our weather over the next couple of
days. The GFS and NAM have struggled with the strength of the upper
high as well as the location of a sfc trough over the area. This
caused them to generate precip too far west and underestimate the
overall coverage yesterday. The ECMWF has performed the best along
with some of the short term high-res models. Model QPF seems to
align with an upper level shear axis across the area which will
likely help with convection today and Friday. Subtle disturbances
in the weak flow aloft may also enhance convection, but these are
hard to detect until cu begins to develop during the afternoon.
With the above said, higher PoPs are warranted for western
portions of the PB and SE NM for today and Friday. We may again
see some heavy rain as Gulf moisture continues to stream in with
PWATS near 1.5".

Convection should be confined mostly to the higher terrain and SE NM
by the weekend as the upper ridge builds west. Temperatures will
remain a few degrees above normal across most of the area with near
normal values across the west where the better chance for rain lies.

Models begin to diverge next week with the GFS digging a trough
across the Rockies and weakening the ridge. The ECMWF keeps a strong
ridge in place before weakening it late in the week. Will stay with
persistence here and keep it warm and mostly dry until model
solutions converge better.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 94  72  93  69  /  10  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              96  73  96  70  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                96  72  91  70  /  30  30  40  40
DRYDEN TX                  98  73  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           94  71  93  70  /  20  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          88  65  79  63  /  30  30  40  40
HOBBS NM                   92  67  91  66  /  30  30  30  30
MARFA TX                   86  63  85  60  /  30  30  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    95  74  94  71  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  93  74  93  71  /  10  10  20  20
WINK TX                    97  76  95  72  /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/29

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726
FXUS64 KMAF 210553
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1253 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

KMAF radar shows the LLJ has redeveloped tonight, although a bit
weaker than last night, w/~25 kts of return flow overhead. This
return flow will continue next 24 hours, w/a stronger LLJ forecast
to redevelop near the end of the forecast period. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field again by late morning,
w/bases 4-8 kft agl. VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours.
Sfc trough is forecast to shift WNW later today, as will the
chances for convection. We`ll insert a mention at KCNM, which
models suggest wil have the best chances later today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Please see 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Ongoing evening thunderstorms will complicate TAF forecast through
at least 02z... with TEMPO groups included at KMAF, KFST, and KPEQ
for periods of MVFR conditions. Thunderstorm outflow winds will
create gusty and erratic conditions near the aforementioned
terminals. Anticipate convection to wane with loss of daytime
heating, but will amend as necessary based on trends. Otherwise,
mainly VFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast period
with the lone exception being a window for MVFR ceilings at KMAF
between 12-14z. South to southeasterly winds around 10 kts will
increase mid-morning to include gusts around 20 kts in response to
a surface trough along the Texas/New Mexico border. Thunderstorms
will be possible again Thursday afternoon/evening, but look to
remain west of the terminals.

Huffman

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern coast of
California with an upper ridge over the Gulf coast states.  This is
resulting in southwest flow over far West Texas and southeast New
Mexico which is bringing in mid-level subtropical moisture.  The
increase in moisture along with an increase in omega values along
and south of the Davis Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across mainly the western half of the CWA this
afternoon.  Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible today
across parts of the Permian Basin with CAPE values around or above
1,000 J/kg.  Bulk shear values will be low across the whole area so
not expecting widespread severe development.  Upper level winds are
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  Will not issue a Flash
Flood Watch at this time due to QPF amounts not being high enough to
warrant one but will continue to mention flooding threat in HWO.
The PWAT value on the 12z MAF sounding was 1.39 which would support
heavy rain.  High temperatures today will be near normal and similar
to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and western portions of the CWA through
the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern extent of
the precipitation will depend on the strength and placement of the
upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of next week, an upper
trough will move over the Northern Plains which which will cause the
upper ridge to shift eastward and weaken over the CWA.  Temperatures
will not change too much through the forecast period and should
remain near normal despite the presence of a surface trough across
eastern New Mexico and West Texas.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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269
FXUS64 KMAF 210006
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
706 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Ongoing evening thunderstorms will complicate TAF forecast through
at least 02z... with TEMPO groups included at KMAF, KFST, and KPEQ
for periods of MVFR conditions. Thunderstorm outflow winds will
create gusty and erratic conditions near the aforementioned
terminals. Anticipate convection to wane with loss of daytime
heating, but will amend as necessary based on trends. Otherwise,
mainly VFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast period
with the lone exception being a window for MVFR ceilings at KMAF
between 12-14z. South to southeasterly winds around 10 kts will
increase mid-morning to include gusts around 20 kts in response to
a surface trough along the Texas/New Mexico border. Thunderstorms
will be possible again Thursday afternoon/evening, but look to
remain west of the terminals.

Huffman

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern coast of
California with an upper ridge over the Gulf coast states.  This is
resulting in southwest flow over far West Texas and southeast New
Mexico which is bringing in mid-level subtropical moisture.  The
increase in moisture along with an increase in omega values along
and south of the Davis Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across mainly the western half of the CWA this
afternoon.  Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible today
across parts of the Permian Basin with CAPE values around or above
1,000 J/kg.  Bulk shear values will be low across the whole area so
not expecting widespread severe development.  Upper level winds are
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  Will not issue a Flash
Flood Watch at this time due to QPF amounts not being high enough to
warrant one but will continue to mention flooding threat in HWO.
The PWAT value on the 12z MAF sounding was 1.39 which would support
heavy rain.  High temperatures today will be near normal and similar
to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and western portions of the CWA through
the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern extent of
the precipitation will depend on the strength and placement of the
upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of next week, an upper
trough will move over the Northern Plains which which will cause the
upper ridge to shift eastward and weaken over the CWA.  Temperatures
will not change too much through the forecast period and should
remain near normal despite the presence of a surface trough across
eastern New Mexico and West Texas.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

13

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921
FXUS64 KMAF 202112
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
412 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Thunderstorms have developed in slightly higher 850MB theta-e air
and also in closer proximity to the current position of the
surface trough as indicated in the latest observations. Thus, we
have shifted the best chances for thunderstorms into the eastern
portions of Brewster County, Pecos County, and the western half of
Terrell County. Training thunderstorms are evident on radar across
these areas. This certainly supports the potential for localized
flooding late this afternoon and into the evening hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern coast of
California with an upper ridge over the Gulf coast states.  This is
resulting in southwest flow over far West Texas and southeast New
Mexico which is bringing in mid-level subtropical moisture.  The
increase in moisture along with an increase in omega values along
and south of the Davis Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across mainly the western half of the CWA this
afternoon.  Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible today
across parts of the Permian Basin with CAPE values around or above
1,000 J/kg.  Bulk shear values will be low across the whole area so
not expecting widespread severe development.  Upper level winds are
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  Will not issue a Flash
Flood Watch at this time due to QPF amounts not being high enough to
warrant one but will continue to mention flooding threat in HWO.
The PWAT value on the 12z MAF sounding was 1.39 which would support
heavy rain.  High temperatures today will be near normal and similar
to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and western portions of the CWA through
the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern extent of
the precipitation will depend on the strength and placement of the
upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of next week, an upper
trough will move over the Northern Plains which which will cause the
upper ridge to shift eastward and weaken over the CWA.  Temperatures
will not change too much through the forecast period and should
remain near normal despite the presence of a surface trough across
eastern New Mexico and West Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  95  72  93  /  30  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              74  95  73  94  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  94  71  92  /  30  20  20  30
DRYDEN TX                  75  97  73  95  /  50  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  95  72  94  /  50  20  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  87  64  84  /  30  30  30  40
HOBBS NM                   68  93  68  90  /  30  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   62  87  63  85  /  30  40  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  94  73  93  /  30  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  73  94  74  93  /  30  10  10  10
WINK TX                    76  97  75  97  /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

13/03

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853
FXUS64 KMAF 201926
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
225 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern coast of
California with an upper ridge over the Gulf coast states.  This is
resulting in southwest flow over far West Texas and southeast New
Mexico which is bringing in mid-level subtropical moisture.  The
increase in moisture along with an increase in omega values along
and south of the Davis Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across mainly the western half of the CWA this
afternoon.  Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible today
across parts of the Permian Basin with CAPE values around or above
1,000 J/kg.  Bulk shear values will be low across the whole area so
not expecting widespread severe development.  Upper level winds are
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  Will not issue a Flash
Flood Watch at this time due to QPF amounts not being high enough to
warrant one but will continue to mention flooding threat in HWO.
The PWAT value on the 12z MAF sounding was 1.39 which would support
heavy rain.  High temperatures today will be near normal and similar
to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and western portions of the CWA through
the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern extent of
the precipitation will depend on the strength and placement of the
upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of next week, an upper
trough will move over the Northern Plains which which will cause the
upper ridge to shift eastward and weaken over the CWA.  Temperatures
will not change too much through the forecast period and should
remain near normal despite the presence of a surface trough across
eastern New Mexico and West Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  95  72  93  /  20  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              74  95  73  94  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  94  71  92  /  20  20  20  30
DRYDEN TX                  75  97  73  95  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  95  72  94  /  20  20  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  87  64  84  /  20  30  30  40
HOBBS NM                   68  93  68  90  /  20  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   62  87  63  85  /  50  40  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  94  73  93  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  73  94  74  93  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    76  97  75  97  /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/80

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010
FXUS64 KMAF 201744
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1244 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect afternoon storms to fire up across the higher elevations...
most will be west of TAF locations except could see a few near FST
or CNM.  Otherwise gusty southerly wind during the afternoon
should drop off but not die out after sunset.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper low continues to drop south along the CA coast this morning
while a large upper ridge encompasses most of the Gulf Coast region.
In between these two systems a subtropical moisture plume is present
over far West Texas and NM. This brought showers and thunderstorms
to these areas yesterday and is expected to do so again the rest of
the week. Locations that have the best chance of rain will shift
each day as the strength of the upper high fluctuates. The best
chance for storms today will remain across the west with only
isolated convection expected over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos. There is a potential for heavy rain over the Davis Mountains
and adjacent areas where precipitable water values are near 1.5".

Models continue to struggle with the strength of the upper high and
whether it will be strong enough to deflect West Coast trough. Will
continue to keep the best chances for convection over SE NM down to
the Big Bend through the end of the week. PoPs may need to be
expanded east in subsequent forecasts if the ridge is indeed weaker.
Currently do not see any well defined shortwaves to affect the CWA
nor do the models suggest it so will hold off on any Flash Flood
Watch and keep mention of heavy rain in the HWO.

Temperatures will remain near to just above normal except across
western areas where clouds and rain are expected. By early next
week a rather deep upper trough will dig into the Western U.S. This
may help to weaken the ridge and allow better rain chances with
slightly cooler temps.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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555
FXUS64 KMAF 200953
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
453 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

KMAF radar shows the LLJ in full swing tonight, w/~30kt return
flow right off the deck. Expect return flow to continue next 24
hours, except out west, where a westerly component is expected. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning, w/bases
4.5-6 kft agl. Convection will be possible west and south again
today, on the periphery of the upper ridge. For now, we`ll only
include it at KFST, w/MVFR visibilities due to heavy precip.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper low continues to drop south along the CA coast this morning
while a large upper ridge encompasses most of the Gulf Coast region.
In between these two systems a subtropical moisture plume is present
over far West Texas and NM. This brought showers and thunderstorms
to these areas yesterday and is expected to do so again the rest of
the week. Locations that have the best chance of rain will shift
each day as the strength of the upper high fluctuates. The best
chance for storms today will remain across the west with only
isolated convection expected over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos. There is a potential for heavy rain over the Davis Mountains
and adjacent areas where precipitable water values are near 1.5".

Models continue to struggle with the strength of the upper high and
whether it will be strong enough to deflect West Coast trough. Will
continue to keep the best chances for convection over SE NM down to
the Big Bend through the end of the week. PoPs may need to be
expanded east in subsequent forecasts if the ridge is indeed weaker.
Currently do not see any well defined shortwaves to affect the CWA
nor do the models suggest it so will hold off on any Flash Flood
Watch and keep mention of heavy rain in the HWO.

Temperatures will remain near to just above normal except across
western areas where clouds and rain are expected. By early next
week a rather deep upper trough will dig into the Western U.S. This
may help to weaken the ridge and allow better rain chances with
slightly cooler temps.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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954
FXUS64 KMAF 200906
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
406 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

An upper low continues to drop south along the CA coast this morning
while a large upper ridge encompasses most of the Gulf Coast region.
In between these two systems a subtropical moisture plume is present
over far West Texas and NM. This brought showers and thunderstorms
to these areas yesterday and is expected to do so again the rest of
the week. Locations that have the best chance of rain will shift
each day as the strength of the upper high fluctuates. The best
chance for storms today will remain across the west with only
isolated convection expected over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos. There is a potential for heavy rain over the Davis Mountains
and adjacent areas where precipitable water values are near 1.5".

Models continue to struggle with the strength of the upper high and
whether it will be strong enough to deflect West Coast trough. Will
continue to keep the best chances for convection over SE NM down to
the Big Bend through the end of the week. PoPs may need to be
expanded east in subsequent forecasts if the ridge is indeed weaker.
Currently do not see any well defined shortwaves to affect the CWA
nor do the models suggest it so will hold off on any Flash Flood
Watch and keep mention of heavy rain in the HWO.

Temperatures will remain near to just above normal except across
western areas where clouds and rain are expected. By early next
week a rather deep upper trough will dig into the Western U.S. This
may help to weaken the ridge and allow better rain chances with
slightly cooler temps.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 93  72  95  71  /  20  20  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              95  74  96  73  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                95  70  96  70  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  99  75  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           94  71  93  71  /  20  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          87  66  87  64  /  20  20  30  30
HOBBS NM                   92  68  93  68  /  20  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   85  62  85  61  /  40  40  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    95  74  94  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  93  74  94  74  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    97  75  97  74  /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/29

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421
FXUS64 KMAF 200533
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

KMAF radar shows the LLJ in full swing tonight, w/~30kt return
flow right off the deck. Expect return flow to continue next 24
hours. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by late
morning, w/bases 5-6 kft agl. Convection will be possible west and
south aagain today, on the periphery of the upper ridge. For now,
we`ll only include it at KFST, w/MVFR visibilities due to heavy precip.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

UPDATE...
Dropping rain chances east and increasing chances west of the Davis
Mountains.

DISCUSSION...
Convection across much of southwest Texas and New Mexico appears
to be winding down for the evening. Additional convection is
entering west Texas from northern Mexico. NAM model hints that
shortwave may be aiding in continuing development of convection
over this area. With precipitable water values near 1.50", heavy
rainfall is possible from the Rio Grande to the Davis Mountains
overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Storms are slowly decreasing, but there are still some focus areas
and for now will leave in a TEMPO TSRA at FST til 02z. SE winds
around 10kts thru the night are expected. Late in the period TSRA
will again be possible at CNM/FST/INK. PEQ seems the most favored
of the three and will include a PROB30 late Wed PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

UPDATE...
Added isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over
northern portion of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION...

Well-developed cumulus apparent on visibility satellite imagery
over southeast New Mexico and the northern parts of the Permian
Basin. Radar indicating thunderstorms have initiated within this
cumulus field. Would expect continued development of at least
isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon with further
development occurring on intersecting boundaries.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The shear axis which gave the Permian Basin scattered thunderstorms
yesterday is still over west central Texas, but weaker than a day
ago.  Also, the atmosphere is fairly stable where rainfall occurred
yesterday, so scattered thunderstorms look unlikely this afternoon
and evening in these areas.  However, subtropical moisture is
prevalent over the higher terrain, and along with a shortwave trough
over Chihuahua, if not along the Rio Grande River, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Davis and Glass
Mountains, along with the Marfa Plateau, Stockton Plateau and
Lower Trans Pecos.  The main threat from these storms will be
heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

An ua trough will dig further south along the California coast by
Wednesday, while an ua ridge remains entrenched over the
southeastern ConUS.  The forecast area will remain between these
synoptic scale features the next few days until the mentioned ua
trough ejects northeastward over the central Rockies.  Southerly
flow aloft over the region during this time will direct subtropical
mid and upper level moisture over the area, which along with
periodic shortwave troughs, result in thunderstorms chances
continuing into next weekend.  The western half of the forecast area
will have the best chance for thunderstorms, but some models are
indicating thunderstorm activity developing east of a semi permanent
surface trough, that is, over the Permian Basin.  Not quite sold on
the further east solution considering differences in how strong the
ua ridge will be over eastern reaches of the CWA, not to mention
differences amongst models in the timing of the ua trough ejecting.

The potential exists for heavy rainfall and flash flooding over
the higher terrain through the rest of the week considering PWats
will be 1.5 to 2 inches for much of this time.  Will not carry
PoPs quite high enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch, which would
likely be issued for locations west of a Hobbs to Alpine to Big
Bend line, but subsequent shifts may come up with the agreement
necessary to do so.  Will mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook
for now.  Temperatures will be at or slightly above normal through
the week, except over western reaches of the forecast area where
clouds and precipitation will tend to temper readings.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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051
FXUS64 KMAF 200131
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
831 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Dropping rain chances east and increasing chances west of the Davis
Mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Convection across much of southwest Texas and New Mexico appears
to be winding down for the evening. Additional convection is
entering west Texas from northern Mexico. NAM model hints that
shortwave may be aiding in continuing development of convection
over this area. With precipitable water values near 1.50", heavy
rainfall is possible from the Rio Grande to the Davis Mountains
overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Storms are slowly decreasing, but there are still some focus areas
and for now will leave in a TEMPO TSRA at FST til 02z. SE winds
around 10kts thru the night are expected. Late in the period TSRA
will again be possible at CNM/FST/INK. PEQ seems the most favored
of the three and will include a PROB30 late Wed PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

UPDATE...
Added isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over
northern portion of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION...

Well-developed cumulus apparent on visibility satellite imagery
over southeast New Mexico and the northern parts of the Permian
Basin. Radar indicating thunderstorms have initiated within this
cumulus field. Would expect continued development of at least
isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon with further
development occurring on intersecting boundaries.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The shear axis which gave the Permian Basin scattered thunderstorms
yesterday is still over west central Texas, but weaker than a day
ago.  Also, the atmosphere is fairly stable where rainfall occurred
yesterday, so scattered thunderstorms look unlikely this afternoon
and evening in these areas.  However, subtropical moisture is
prevalent over the higher terrain, and along with a shortwave trough
over Chihuahua, if not along the Rio Grande River, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Davis and Glass
Mountains, along with the Marfa Plateau, Stockton Plateau and
Lower Trans Pecos.  The main threat from these storms will be
heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

An ua trough will dig further south along the California coast by
Wednesday, while an ua ridge remains entrenched over the
southeastern ConUS.  The forecast area will remain between these
synoptic scale features the next few days until the mentioned ua
trough ejects northeastward over the central Rockies.  Southerly
flow aloft over the region during this time will direct subtropical
mid and upper level moisture over the area, which along with
periodic shortwave troughs, result in thunderstorms chances
continuing into next weekend.  The western half of the forecast area
will have the best chance for thunderstorms, but some models are
indicating thunderstorm activity developing east of a semi permanent
surface trough, that is, over the Permian Basin.  Not quite sold on
the further east solution considering differences in how strong the
ua ridge will be over eastern reaches of the CWA, not to mention
differences amongst models in the timing of the ua trough ejecting.

The potential exists for heavy rainfall and flash flooding over
the higher terrain through the rest of the week considering PWats
will be 1.5 to 2 inches for much of this time.  Will not carry
PoPs quite high enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch, which would
likely be issued for locations west of a Hobbs to Alpine to Big
Bend line, but subsequent shifts may come up with the agreement
necessary to do so.  Will mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook
for now.  Temperatures will be at or slightly above normal through
the week, except over western reaches of the forecast area where
clouds and precipitation will tend to temper readings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  93  71  93  /  10  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              70  94  76  93  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  95  70  94  /  10  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  75 100  77  98  /  20  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  92  71  93  /  20  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  86  66  84  /  20  40  40  40
HOBBS NM                   64  92  67  91  /  10  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   62  85  62  84  /  50  50  50  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  94  73  92  /  10  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  69  94  74  92  /  10  20  20  20
WINK TX                    73  96  74  94  /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/05

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585
FXUS64 KMAF 192318
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Storms are slowly decreasing, but there are still some focus areas
and for now will leave in a TEMPO TSRA at FST til 02z. SE winds
around 10kts thru the night are expected. Late in the period TSRA
will again be possible at CNM/FST/INK. PEQ seems the most favored
of the three and will include a PROB30 late Wed PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

UPDATE...
Added isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over
northern portion of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION...

Well-developed cumulus apparent on visibility satellite imagery
over southeast New Mexico and the northern parts of the Permian
Basin. Radar indicating thunderstorms have initiated within this
cumulus field. Would expect continued development of at least
isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon with further
development occurring on intersecting boundaries.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The shear axis which gave the Permian Basin scattered thunderstorms
yesterday is still over west central Texas, but weaker than a day
ago.  Also, the atmosphere is fairly stable where rainfall occurred
yesterday, so scattered thunderstorms look unlikely this afternoon
and evening in these areas.  However, subtropical moisture is
prevalent over the higher terrain, and along with a shortwave trough
over Chihuahua, if not along the Rio Grande River, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Davis and Glass
Mountains, along with the Marfa Plateau, Stockton Plateau and
Lower Trans Pecos.  The main threat from these storms will be
heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

An ua trough will dig further south along the California coast by
Wednesday, while an ua ridge remains entrenched over the
southeastern ConUS.  The forecast area will remain between these
synoptic scale features the next few days until the mentioned ua
trough ejects northeastward over the central Rockies.  Southerly
flow aloft over the region during this time will direct subtropical
mid and upper level moisture over the area, which along with
periodic shortwave troughs, result in thunderstorms chances
continuing into next weekend.  The western half of the forecast area
will have the best chance for thunderstorms, but some models are
indicating thunderstorm activity developing east of a semi permanent
surface trough, that is, over the Permian Basin.  Not quite sold on
the further east solution considering differences in how strong the
ua ridge will be over eastern reaches of the CWA, not to mention
differences amongst models in the timing of the ua trough ejecting.

The potential exists for heavy rainfall and flash flooding over
the higher terrain through the rest of the week considering PWats
will be 1.5 to 2 inches for much of this time.  Will not carry
PoPs quite high enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch, which would
likely be issued for locations west of a Hobbs to Alpine to Big
Bend line, but subsequent shifts may come up with the agreement
necessary to do so.  Will mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook
for now.  Temperatures will be at or slightly above normal through
the week, except over western reaches of the forecast area where
clouds and precipitation will tend to temper readings.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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057
FXUS64 KMAF 192018
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
318 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Added isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over
northern portion of the forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Well-developed cumulus apparent on visibility satellite imagery
over southeast New Mexico and the northern parts of the Permian
Basin. Radar indicating thunderstorms have initiated within this
cumulus field. Would expect continued development of at least
isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon with further
development occurring on intersecting boundaries.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The shear axis which gave the Permian Basin scattered thunderstorms
yesterday is still over west central Texas, but weaker than a day
ago.  Also, the atmosphere is fairly stable where rainfall occurred
yesterday, so scattered thunderstorms look unlikely this afternoon
and evening in these areas.  However, subtropical moisture is
prevalent over the higher terrain, and along with a shortwave trough
over Chihuahua, if not along the Rio Grande River, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Davis and Glass
Mountains, along with the Marfa Plateau, Stockton Plateau and
Lower Trans Pecos.  The main threat from these storms will be
heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

An ua trough will dig further south along the California coast by
Wednesday, while an ua ridge remains entrenched over the
southeastern ConUS.  The forecast area will remain between these
synoptic scale features the next few days until the mentioned ua
trough ejects northeastward over the central Rockies.  Southerly
flow aloft over the region during this time will direct subtropical
mid and upper level moisture over the area, which along with
periodic shortwave troughs, result in thunderstorms chances
continuing into next weekend.  The western half of the forecast area
will have the best chance for thunderstorms, but some models are
indicating thunderstorm activity developing east of a semi permanent
surface trough, that is, over the Permian Basin.  Not quite sold on
the further east solution considering differences in how strong the
ua ridge will be over eastern reaches of the CWA, not to mention
differences amongst models in the timing of the ua trough ejecting.

The potential exists for heavy rainfall and flash flooding over
the higher terrain through the rest of the week considering PWats
will be 1.5 to 2 inches for much of this time.  Will not carry
PoPs quite high enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch, which would
likely be issued for locations west of a Hobbs to Alpine to Big
Bend line, but subsequent shifts may come up with the agreement
necessary to do so.  Will mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook
for now.  Temperatures will be at or slightly above normal through
the week, except over western reaches of the forecast area where
clouds and precipitation will tend to temper readings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  93  71  93  /  20  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              70  94  76  93  /  20  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  95  70  94  /  20  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  75 100  77  98  /  30  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  92  71  93  /  30  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  86  66  84  /  40  40  40  40
HOBBS NM                   64  92  67  91  /  20  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   62  85  62  84  /  50  50  50  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  94  73  92  /  20  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  69  94  74  92  /  20  20  20  20
WINK TX                    73  96  74  94  /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05

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473
FXUS64 KMAF 191915
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
215 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The shear axis which gave the Permian Basin scattered thunderstorms
yesterday is still over west central Texas, but weaker than a day
ago.  Also, the atmosphere is fairly stable where rainfall occurred
yesterday, so scattered thunderstorms look unlikely this afternoon
and evening in these areas.  However, subtropical moisture is
prevalent over the higher terrain, and along with a shortwave trough
over Chihuahua, if not along the Rio Grande River, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Davis and Glass
Mountains, along with the Marfa Plateau, Stockton Plateau and
Lower Trans Pecos.  The main threat from these storms will be
heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

An ua trough will dig further south along the California coast by
Wednesday, while an ua ridge remains entrenched over the
southeastern ConUS.  The forecast area will remain between these
synoptic scale features the next few days until the mentioned ua
trough ejects northeastward over the central Rockies.  Southerly
flow aloft over the region during this time will direct subtropical
mid and upper level moisture over the area, which along with
periodic shortwave troughs, result in thunderstorms chances
continuing into next weekend.  The western half of the forecast area
will have the best chance for thunderstorms, but some models are
indicating thunderstorm activity developing east of a semi permanent
surface trough, that is, over the Permian Basin.  Not quite sold on
the further east solution considering differences in how strong the
ua ridge will be over eastern reaches of the CWA, not to mention
differences amongst models in the timing of the ua trough ejecting.

The potential exists for heavy rainfall and flash flooding over
the higher terrain through the rest of the week considering PWats
will be 1.5 to 2 inches for much of this time.  Will not carry
PoPs quite high enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch, which would
likely be issued for locations west of a Hobbs to Alpine to Big
Bend line, but subsequent shifts may come up with the agreement
necessary to do so.  Will mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook
for now.  Temperatures will be at or slightly above normal through
the week, except over western reaches of the forecast area where
clouds and precipitation will tend to temper readings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  93  71  93  /  10  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              70  94  76  93  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  95  70  94  /  20  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  75 100  77  98  /  30  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  92  71  93  /  30  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  86  66  84  /  40  40  40  40
HOBBS NM                   64  92  67  91  /  20  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   62  85  62  84  /  50  50  50  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  94  73  92  /  10  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  69  94  74  92  /  10  20  20  20
WINK TX                    73  96  74  94  /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/67

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840
FXUS64 KMAF 191725
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1218 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the
area with FST and PEQ having the best chances of seeing convection.
Outside of convection, VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will
mostly be out of the south during the period with elevated and gusty
winds occurring this afternoon and evening and late Wednesday
morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge extending up along the Front Range into MT, and split flow to
the west, w/an upper trough just off the west coast near the Bay
Area.  A weak, decaying upper low is positioned over the Hill
Country to the east.  This feature will warrant a slight chance of
convection over the eastern zones this afternoon, while areas west
of the Pecos will see slightly better chances in a weak upslope flow
scenario.  Temps will remain relatively cool, although a bit warmer
than yesterday, w/the H85 thermal ridge extending from the Big Bend
NW into SE NM.

Wednesday, the upper ridge begins nudging east, courtesy of the
incoming west coast trough.  This will open a window over the
western half of the FA for convection into the weekend.  Although
the ridge is forecast to shift east, thicknesses won`t change much,
so temps should remain steady and just above normal into next week.
The GFS/ECMWF are similar in temps in the extended, so we won`t
stray too far from MOS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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638
FXUS64 KMAF 191050
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
550 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
Isolated storms are possible this afternoon mainly away from the
terminals. VFR conditions will prevail with a gusty southeasterly
wind this afternoon diminishing after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge extending up along the Front Range into MT, and split flow to
the west, w/an upper trough just off the west coast near the Bay
Area.  A weak, decaying upper low is positioned over the Hill
Country to the east.  This feature will warrant a slight chance of
convection over the eastern zones this afternoon, while areas west
of the Pecos will see slightly better chances in a weak upslope flow
scenario.  Temps will remain relatively cool, although a bit warmer
than yesterday, w/the H85 thermal ridge extending from the Big Bend
NW into SE NM.

Wednesday, the upper ridge begins nudging east, courtesy of the
incoming west coast trough.  This will open a window over the
western half of the FA for convection into the weekend.  Although
the ridge is forecast to shift east, thicknesses won`t change much,
so temps should remain steady and just above normal into next week.
The GFS/ECMWF are similar in temps in the extended, so we won`t
stray too far from MOS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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405
FXUS64 KMAF 190900
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge extending up along the Front Range into MT, and split flow to
the west, w/an upper trough just off the west coast near the Bay
Area.  A weak, decaying upper low is positioned over the Hill
Country to the east.  This feature will warrant a slight chance of
convection over the eastern zones this afternoon, while areas west
of the Pecos will see slightly better chances in a weak upslope flow
scenario.  Temps will remain relatively cool, although a bit warmer
than yesterday, w/the H85 thermal ridge extending from the Big Bend
NW into SE NM.

Wednesday, the upper ridge begins nudging east, courtesy of the
incoming west coast trough.  This will open a window over the
western half of the FA for convection into the weekend.  Although
the ridge is forecast to shift east, thicknesses won`t change much,
so temps should remain steady and just above normal into next week.
The GFS/ECMWF are similar in temps in the extended, so we won`t
stray too far from MOS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 94  70  92  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              94  72  93  72  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                95  71  90  70  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  95  74  93  73  /  10  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           95  71  94  71  /  10  10  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          85  66  81  66  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   93  69  89  70  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   83  64  83  62  /  40  20  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    94  72  93  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  94  72  93  72  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    98  73  94  73  /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/44

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248
FXUS64 KMAF 190435
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1135 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the afternoon and into
the evening. Thunderstorms are possible once again this afternoon,
but should remain isolated near the terminals so will not include
in any TAFs. Winds will become gusty across the PB and Trans Pecos by
early afternoon before diminishing after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast to lower pops tonight.

DISCUSSION...
Most of the storms have moved out of the area pushing into West
Central TX. May see some redevelopment over the region tonight so
have lowered pops but not removed them.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 125 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A shear axis is evident in water vapor imagery over west central
Texas into the Lower Trans Pecos and into Davis Mountains.  Showers
and thunderstorms have been developing within higher mid level theta
e air over west central Texas all morning in association with this
shear axis, while outflow from that activity appears to be spreading
higher mid level theta e air westward.  This seems to be the impetus
for showers and thunderstorms developing over the western Low
Rolling Plains, with additional convection poised to develop through
the afternoon over the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos and Davis
Mountains, at least according to cumulus developing these areas in
the latest visible satellite imagery, and in the vicinity of a weak
surface trough south.  Think good heating, plenty of moisture
through the column and increasing upslope flow will foster
thunderstorm development into the evening in most of these areas.
Therefore, have increased PoPs for this afternoon and evening, but
particularly from the Davis Mountains, eastward into the Lower Trans
Pecos.  Think gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms, but
PWats of 1.5 to 2 inches over southwest Texas will make heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding the main concern.

Thunderstorm chances will continue the next few days as the ua ridge
currently near the Four Corners region never does really build back
over the area.  Instead, southerly flow aloft comes about over the
area by Tuesday, strengthens Wednesday and Thursday, and still hangs
around Friday as a broad ua trough encompasses much of the western
ConUS behind the main shortwave trough ejecting northeastward
through the Four Corners region Thursday.  Subtropical moisture will
be siphoned north/northeastward over the area during these days
between an ua ridge over the southeastern ConUS and the mentioned
western ua trough.  Therefore, have kept a chance of thunderstorms
going Tuesday through Friday, with the emphasis over the western
half of the forecast area.  Since PWats will rise to 1.5 to 2 inches
Wednesday and Thursday, later shifts will have to determine whether
a Flash Flood Watch will be necessary west of the Pecos River these
days since thunderstorms could train over these areas.  Backed away
from the hotter temperatures through the week, partially due to
models indicating the upper ridge will not build westward over the
region aggressively through late week, and due to the potential for
cloud cover and precipitation over the western half of the CWA.

Rain chances will continue over the western third or so of the
forecast area through next weekend as the ua ridge is still not
progged to build westward emphatically.  Will only keep temperatures
a few degrees above normal into early next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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526
FXUS64 KMAF 190135
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
835 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast to lower pops tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Most of the storms have moved out of the area pushing into West
Central TX. May see some redevelopment over the region tonight so
have lowered pops but not removed them.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas area terminals through Tuesday afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible through mid-evening today generally
south of I-20 with chances too small to include in terminals. Any
thunderstorms that occur will be capable of producing variable and
gusty winds. Thunderstorms are expected to occur again Tuesday
afternoon, though mainly in the mountains. Through the overnight
hours, winds will be generally south to southeast at less than 12
knots across the area, though gusty near thunderstorms. Winds
will become more southerly on Tuesday and strengthen with south
winds around 15 knots in the Permian Basin area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 125 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A shear axis is evident in water vapor imagery over west central
Texas into the Lower Trans Pecos and into Davis Mountains.  Showers
and thunderstorms have been developing within higher mid level theta
e air over west central Texas all morning in association with this
shear axis, while outflow from that activity appears to be spreading
higher mid level theta e air westward.  This seems to be the impetus
for showers and thunderstorms developing over the western Low
Rolling Plains, with additional convection poised to develop through
the afternoon over the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos and Davis
Mountains, at least according to cumulus developing these areas in
the latest visible satellite imagery, and in the vicinity of a weak
surface trough south.  Think good heating, plenty of moisture
through the column and increasing upslope flow will foster
thunderstorm development into the evening in most of these areas.
Therefore, have increased PoPs for this afternoon and evening, but
particularly from the Davis Mountains, eastward into the Lower Trans
Pecos.  Think gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms, but
PWats of 1.5 to 2 inches over southwest Texas will make heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding the main concern.

Thunderstorm chances will continue the next few days as the ua ridge
currently near the Four Corners region never does really build back
over the area.  Instead, southerly flow aloft comes about over the
area by Tuesday, strengthens Wednesday and Thursday, and still hangs
around Friday as a broad ua trough encompasses much of the western
ConUS behind the main shortwave trough ejecting northeastward
through the Four Corners region Thursday.  Subtropical moisture will
be siphoned north/northeastward over the area during these days
between an ua ridge over the southeastern ConUS and the mentioned
western ua trough.  Therefore, have kept a chance of thunderstorms
going Tuesday through Friday, with the emphasis over the western
half of the forecast area.  Since PWats will rise to 1.5 to 2 inches
Wednesday and Thursday, later shifts will have to determine whether
a Flash Flood Watch will be necessary west of the Pecos River these
days since thunderstorms could train over these areas.  Backed away
from the hotter temperatures through the week, partially due to
models indicating the upper ridge will not build westward over the
region aggressively through late week, and due to the potential for
cloud cover and precipitation over the western half of the CWA.

Rain chances will continue over the western third or so of the
forecast area through next weekend as the ua ridge is still not
progged to build westward emphatically.  Will only keep temperatures
a few degrees above normal into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  91  70  93  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  93  74  95  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                69  94  70  94  /  10  20  20  30
DRYDEN TX                  76  97  75  96  /  30  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  91  71  91  /  20  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  85  64  82  /  20  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                   65  90  65  91  /  10  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   60  86  61  84  /  30  30  30  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  93  72  94  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  70  91  72  93  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    70  96  72  96  /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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311
FXUS64 KMAF 182253
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
553 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas area terminals through Tuesday afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible through mid-evening today generally
south of I-20 with chances too small to include in terminals. Any
thunderstorms that occur will be capable of producing variable and
gusty winds. Thunderstorms are expected to occur again Tuesday
afternoon, though mainly in the mountains. Through the overnight
hours, winds will be generally south to southeast at less than 12
knots across the area, though gusty near thunderstorms. Winds
will become more southerly on Tuesday and strengthen with south
winds around 15 knots in the Permian Basin area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 125 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A shear axis is evident in water vapor imagery over west central
Texas into the Lower Trans Pecos and into Davis Mountains.  Showers
and thunderstorms have been developing within higher mid level theta
e air over west central Texas all morning in association with this
shear axis, while outflow from that activity appears to be spreading
higher mid level theta e air westward.  This seems to be the impetus
for showers and thunderstorms developing over the western Low
Rolling Plains, with additional convection poised to develop through
the afternoon over the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos and Davis
Mountains, at least according to cumulus developing these areas in
the latest visible satellite imagery, and in the vicinity of a weak
surface trough south.  Think good heating, plenty of moisture
through the column and increasing upslope flow will foster
thunderstorm development into the evening in most of these areas.
Therefore, have increased PoPs for this afternoon and evening, but
particularly from the Davis Mountains, eastward into the Lower Trans
Pecos.  Think gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms, but
PWats of 1.5 to 2 inches over southwest Texas will make heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding the main concern.

Thunderstorm chances will continue the next few days as the ua ridge
currently near the Four Corners region never does really build back
over the area.  Instead, southerly flow aloft comes about over the
area by Tuesday, strengthens Wednesday and Thursday, and still hangs
around Friday as a broad ua trough encompasses much of the western
ConUS behind the main shortwave trough ejecting northeastward
through the Four Corners region Thursday.  Subtropical moisture will
be siphoned north/northeastward over the area during these days
between an ua ridge over the southeastern ConUS and the mentioned
western ua trough.  Therefore, have kept a chance of thunderstorms
going Tuesday through Friday, with the emphasis over the western
half of the forecast area.  Since PWats will rise to 1.5 to 2 inches
Wednesday and Thursday, later shifts will have to determine whether
a Flash Flood Watch will be necessary west of the Pecos River these
days since thunderstorms could train over these areas.  Backed away
from the hotter temperatures through the week, partially due to
models indicating the upper ridge will not build westward over the
region aggressively through late week, and due to the potential for
cloud cover and precipitation over the western half of the CWA.

Rain chances will continue over the western third or so of the
forecast area through next weekend as the ua ridge is still not
progged to build westward emphatically.  Will only keep temperatures
a few degrees above normal into early next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05

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611
FXUS64 KMAF 181825
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
125 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A shear axis is evident in water vapor imagery over west central
Texas into the Lower Trans Pecos and into Davis Mountains.  Showers
and thunderstorms have been developing within higher mid level theta
e air over west central Texas all morning in association with this
shear axis, while outflow from that activity appears to be spreading
higher mid level theta e air westward.  This seems to be the impetus
for showers and thunderstorms developing over the western Low
Rolling Plains, with additional convection poised to develop through
the afternoon over the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos and Davis
Mountains, at least according to cumulus developing these areas in
the latest visible satellite imagery, and in the vicinity of a weak
surface trough south.  Think good heating, plenty of moisture
through the column and increasing upslope flow will foster
thunderstorm development into the evening in most of these areas.
Therefore, have increased PoPs for this afternoon and evening, but
particularly from the Davis Mountains, eastward into the Lower Trans
Pecos.  Think gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms, but
PWats of 1.5 to 2 inches over southwest Texas will make heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding the main concern.

Thunderstorm chances will continue the next few days as the ua ridge
currently near the Four Corners region never does really build back
over the area.  Instead, southerly flow aloft comes about over the
area by Tuesday, strengthens Wednesday and Thursday, and still hangs
around Friday as a broad ua trough encompasses much of the western
ConUS behind the main shortwave trough ejecting northeastward
through the Four Corners region Thursday.  Subtropical moisture will
be siphoned north/northeastward over the area during these days
between an ua ridge over the southeastern ConUS and the mentioned
western ua trough.  Therefore, have kept a chance of thunderstorms
going Tuesday through Friday, with the emphasis over the western
half of the forecast area.  Since PWats will rise to 1.5 to 2 inches
Wednesday and Thursday, later shifts will have to determine whether
a Flash Flood Watch will be necessary west of the Pecos River these
days since thunderstorms could train over these areas.  Backed away
from the hotter temperatures through the week, partially due to
models indicating the upper ridge will not build westward over the
region aggressively through late week, and due to the potential for
cloud cover and precipitation over the western half of the CWA.

Rain chances will continue over the western third or so of the
forecast area through next weekend as the ua ridge is still not
progged to build westward emphatically.  Will only keep temperatures
a few degrees above normal into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  91  70  93  /  20  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  93  74  95  /  20  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                69  94  70  94  /  10  20  20  30
DRYDEN TX                  76  97  75  96  /  60  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  91  71  91  /  30  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  85  64  82  /  20  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                   65  90  65  91  /  20  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   60  86  61  84  /  60  30  30  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  93  72  94  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  70  91  72  93  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    70  96  72  96  /  20  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/67

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116
FXUS64 KMAF 181725
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1215 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening
for MAF, FST, and PEQ but the best chances are for FST.  Winds will
mostly be out of the east to southeast today with elevated winds
occurring around 00z before weakening.  South to southeast winds will
prevail Tuesday morning with winds becoming gusty toward noon.
There is a very slight chance of lower ceilings for MAF around 12z to
15z Tuesday but did not mention in TAFs due to low probability.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A mid level trof axis across the far s-se CWFA will still be
evident in 5h height field this PM with the 5h theta-e ridge
mostly aligned with said trof. There is model consensus that
today`s precip will be confined to the far e-s-sw today/Tue. Low
end chance PoPs are worthy across parts of the Trans Pecos
today/Tue. 85h temps will remain in the mid/upper 20C range across
most areas today/Tue. This has generally resulted in highs in the
mid/upper 90s, except where tstm outflow has resulted in cooler
temps, like what happened yesterday in Midland. By Wed mid level
pattern change will be complete with subtropical ridge well off to
the e-se (lower heights) with a sly mid level flow. A prominent
mid level theta-e ridge will be oriented from nrn MX into far W
TX/srn NM. The most favored track for shrtwv trofs may be just a
little farther w of CWFA. Still this should be a good set-up with
atypical moist upslope flow into mtns co-located within area of
better insolation near the gradient of mid level theta-e ridge
(which at times has been observed to be a favored area for
initiation). Precipitable water will be near 1 standard deviation
above normal. More of the same Thur however best rain potential
will be more from the Davis-GDP mtns into wrn Eddy Co.. There could
be at least locally heavy rain with flooding concerns. Temps will
be relatively cool Wed/Thur even across the PB where stronger se
winds provide slightly cooling. Friday, subtropical ridge will
build back w some and mid level moist axis will push w. There will
still be ample moisture/heating for slght chc/chc PoPs, mainly
across the w. Mid level theta-e ridge slowly fades Saturday/
Sunday with only low end PoPs warranted.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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804
FXUS64 KMAF 181056
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are widespread this morning with drier mid level
air too. Very loose MSLP gradient this morning as evident in
wind speed 5kts or less. Afternoon tstms will mainly stay s and e
of MAF/FST today, but will have to watch for boundaries moving
into area from east potentially providing focus.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A mid level trof axis across the far s-se CWFA will still be
evident in 5h height field this PM with the 5h theta-e ridge
mostly aligned with said trof. There is model consensus that
today`s precip will be confined to the far e-s-sw today/Tue. Low
end chance PoPs are worthy across parts of the Trans Pecos
today/Tue. 85h temps will remain in the mid/upper 20C range across
most areas today/Tue. This has generally resulted in highs in the
mid/upper 90s, except where tstm outflow has resulted in cooler
temps, like what happened yesterday in Midland. By Wed mid level
pattern change will be complete with subtropical ridge well off to
the e-se (lower heights) with a sly mid level flow. A prominent
mid level theta-e ridge will be oriented from nrn MX into far W
TX/srn NM. The most favored track for shrtwv trofs may be just a
little farther w of CWFA. Still this should be a good set-up with
atypical moist upslope flow into mtns co-located within area of
better insolation near the gradient of mid level theta-e ridge
(which at times has been observed to be a favored area for
initiation). Precipitable water will be near 1 standard deviation
above normal. More of the same Thur however best rain potential
will be more from the Davis-GDP mtns into wrn Eddy Co.. There could
be at least locally heavy rain with flooding concerns. Temps will
be relatively cool Wed/Thur even across the PB where stronger se
winds provide slightly cooling. Friday, subtropical ridge will
build back w some and mid level moist axis will push w. There will
still be ample moisture/heating for slght chc/chc PoPs, mainly
across the w. Mid level theta-e ridge slowly fades Saturday/
Sunday with only low end PoPs warranted.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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681
FXUS64 KMAF 180847
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
347 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A mid level trof axis across the far s-se CWFA will still be
evident in 5h height field this PM with the 5h theta-e ridge
mostly aligned with said trof. There is model consensus that
today`s precip will be confined to the far e-s-sw today/Tue. Low
end chance PoPs are worthy across parts of the Trans Pecos
today/Tue. 85h temps will remain in the mid/upper 20C range across
most areas today/Tue. This has generally resulted in highs in the
mid/upper 90s, except where tstm outflow has resulted in cooler
temps, like what happened yesterday in Midland. By Wed mid level
pattern change will be complete with subtropical ridge well off to
the e-se (lower heights) with a sly mid level flow. A prominent
mid level theta-e ridge will be oriented from nrn MX into far W
TX/srn NM. The most favored track for shrtwv trofs may be just a
little farther w of CWFA. Still this should be a good set-up with
atypical moist upslope flow into mtns co-located within area of
better insolation near the gradient of mid level theta-e ridge
(which at times has been observed to be a favored area for
initiation). Precipitable water will be near 1 standard deviation
above normal. More of the same Thur however best rain potential
will be more from the Davis-GDP mtns into wrn Eddy Co.. There could
be at least locally heavy rain with flooding concerns. Temps will
be relatively cool Wed/Thur even across the PB where stronger se
winds provide slightly cooling. Friday, subtropical ridge will
build back w some and mid level moist axis will push w. There will
still be ample moisture/heating for slght chc/chc PoPs, mainly
across the w. Mid level theta-e ridge slowly fades Saturday/
Sunday with only low end PoPs warranted.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 93  70  92  71  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              97  74  96  75  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                95  70  94  71  /  10  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  96  77  95  75  /  30  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           96  71  95  72  /  20  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          88  66  87  65  /  20  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                   92  67  91  68  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   85  60  84  62  /  20  20  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    94  73  93  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  93  73  92  75  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    97  72  96  73  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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585
FXUS64 KMAF 180616
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
116 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18/06Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through 19/06Z.
May see another round of isolated to scattered TSRA develop early
this afternoon across the Guadalupe/Delaware mountains south through
the Davis Mountains and the Big Bend. Outflow boundaries from these
storms could affect KFST, KPEQ, KINK, and maybe KMAF during the mid
to late afternoon hours. As a result, wind forecasts ought to be
taken with a grain of salt after 21Z or so. Confidence in TSRA
affecting all terminals is too low to mention explicitly in the TAFs.
Light and variable winds this morning will become easterly to south-
easterly during the afternoon hours at speeds generally under 10 kts.
Skies will be VFR with several mid and high level decks coming and
going throughout the day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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724
FXUS64 KMAF 172330
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area
for the next few hours.  Gusty winds and reduced visibilities are
possible with these storms.  Outside of convection, winds will
generally be light out of the southeast and VFR conditions will
exist.  Storms are possible tomorrow for CNM, PEQ, and FST but
probabilities are too low to mention in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 158 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A weak UA trough over the region today will gradually shift eastward
with time, drawn in to the prevailing westerlies drooping southward
over the Ohio and lower Mississippi River valleys.  Most models
shear the ua trough out, with a few actually leaving some mid level
energy behind over west central Texas, or as far southwest as the
Big Bend region..  The ua ridge centered near the Four Corners
region will then make a guest appearance over the region Monday/
Monday night before shifting eastward ahead of a deepening UA trough
over the western ConUS.  The flow aloft over the region will be
southerly for a few days between this UA trough, and the ua ridge
which takes up residence over the southeastern U.S.  Just how long
the ua trough stays over the southwest U.S. before ejecting
northeastward into the central Rockies remains to be seen, but this
will ultimately determine how much time we have for an increased
chance of rain under the southerly flow aloft regime.

Will keep the highest PoPs this afternoon and tonight over the
higher terrain and Lower Trans Pecos, the former due to sufficient
moisture, good heating, upslope flow and an Mesoscale Convective
Vortex (MCV) just west of Presidio, and the latter due to the
proximity of the mentioned UA trough, and another MCV over west
central Texas.  Will also keep the slight thunderstorm chances over
the rest of the area due to remnant outflow boundaries, decent
moisture through the column and expected uncapped environment
through max heating.  A few of the stronger storms could produce
gusty winds near 50 mph, locally heavy rainfall and frequent cloud
to ground lightning strikes.  Will continue the trend of shifting
PoPs south and west Monday and Tuesday as the passing UA ridge will
likely keep a lid on convection elsewhere.

Wednesday through Friday could be interesting, especially over the
higher terrain.  Not only will the flow aloft become southerly, but
there are some indications PWats could jump to at least 1.5 inches
over the higher terrain due to an influx of mid and upper level
moisture from the Pacific.  Some models are entraining rich moisture
northeastward from Tropical Storm Karina, others not so much so.
Still, there is fairly good agreement the ua ridge will not build
aggressively westward back over the region, and along with the UA
trough ejecting northeastward Thursday, a surface trough will
strengthen over the western half of the forecast area for convection
to develop on.  Will make a mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook
for the potential for heavy rain out west mid to late this week.
Temperatures over the next 7 days look to be close to normal, but as
has been the case lately, on the warm side.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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078
FXUS64 KMAF 171858
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
158 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A weak UA trough over the region today will gradually shift eastward
with time, drawn in to the prevailing westerlies drooping southward
over the Ohio and lower Mississippi River valleys.  Most models
shear the ua trough out, with a few actually leaving some mid level
energy behind over west central Texas, or as far southwest as the
Big Bend region..  The ua ridge centered near the Four Corners
region will then make a guest appearance over the region Monday/
Monday night before shifting eastward ahead of a deepening UA trough
over the western ConUS.  The flow aloft over the region will be
southerly for a few days between this UA trough, and the ua ridge
which takes up residence over the southeastern U.S.  Just how long
the ua trough stays over the southwest U.S. before ejecting
northeastward into the central Rockies remains to be seen, but this
will ultimately determine how much time we have for an increased
chance of rain under the southerly flow aloft regime.

Will keep the highest PoPs this afternoon and tonight over the
higher terrain and Lower Trans Pecos, the former due to sufficient
moisture, good heating, upslope flow and an Mesoscale Convective
Vortex (MCV) just west of Presidio, and the latter due to the
proximity of the mentioned UA trough, and another MCV over west
central Texas.  Will also keep the slight thunderstorm chances over
the rest of the area due to remnant outflow boundaries, decent
moisture through the column and expected uncapped environment
through max heating.  A few of the stronger storms could produce
gusty winds near 50 mph, locally heavy rainfall and frequent cloud
to ground lightning strikes.  Will continue the trend of shifting
PoPs south and west Monday and Tuesday as the passing UA ridge will
likely keep a lid on convection elsewhere.

Wednesday through Friday could be interesting, especially over the
higher terrain.  Not only will the flow aloft become southerly, but
there are some indications PWats could jump to at least 1.5 inches
over the higher terrain due to an influx of mid and upper level
moisture from the Pacific.  Some models are entraining rich moisture
northeastward from Tropical Storm Karina, others not so much so.
Still, there is fairly good agreement the ua ridge will not build
aggressively westward back over the region, and along with the UA
trough ejecting northeastward Thursday, a surface trough will
strengthen over the western half of the forecast area for convection
to develop on.  Will make a mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook
for the potential for heavy rain out west mid to late this week.
Temperatures over the next 7 days look to be close to normal, but as
has been the case lately, on the warm side.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  95  71  94  /  20  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  99  75  98  /  20  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  96  71  95  /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  78  97  77  99  /  30  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  95  72  92  /  30  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  91  65  91  /  30  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   67  94  68  92  /  20  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   61  86  61  87  /  30  20  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  96  73  95  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  71  95  74  94  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    72  99  74  97  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/67

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853
FXUS64 KMAF 171728
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will again be possible at TAF
sites later this afternoon. Gusty winds are possible in and near
thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. The best chance for
thunderstorms will remain west of the Pecos River. VFR conditions
are expected to persist through the period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

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315
FXUS64 KMAF 171147
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
647 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 17/06Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible 30NM-50NM SE KFST until mid
morning. Additional TSRA development is expected with afternoon
heating today over the mountains and adjacent plains of west Texas.
At this time it appears that KPEQ and KFST have the best chances of
seeing TSRA later today; however, confidence is not sufficient high
to include in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise expect VFR conditions
with mid and high level cloud decks throughout much of the day. Away
from TSRA activity, winds will be generally easterly to southeasterly
at speeds AOA 10 kts, becoming light and variable around midnight
tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
This afternoon the subtropical ridge will be centered INVOF nrn
AZ and a well established NE 5h wind will be in place across the
CWFA. Still there will be the presence of higher theta-e air across
the area, moreso at 7h than 5h. Meanwhile there are still outflow
boundaries across the area, one such has moved thru SE NM and into
the Upper Trans Pecos this morning. NAM12/ECMWF are rather eager
to develop SHRA/TSRA this PM, TTU WRF does too, but confines
precip more or less to areas of I-20. Current fcst has a pretty
good handle on that and will only need to extend chance PoPs a
little farther e into Terrell Co.. Monday looks to be a down day
precip wise across the plains, but enough mstr/heating in mtns for
diurnally driven SHRA/TSRA in the slght chc range. By Tue the
subtropical ridge breaks down over the area with a short-fetch sly
flow developing. Sly mid level flow is usually a good signal for
precip and higher theta-e air does move back into the area, but no
real evidence of a shrtwv trof. Thus PoPs mainly focused around
the mtns and Lower Trans Pecos. ECMWF/Canadian continue to amplify
the pattern with a well a defined mid level theta-e ridge and a
longer sly mid level fetch, evident in the 5h height field Wed into
Thur. Accordingly so both models bring a slug of higher QPF nwd
Wed and Thur. Of course difficult to say where it will be, but
generally from Big Bend into Upper Trans Pecos/wrn PB seems the
favored areas for now. This could be heavy rain too. A time series
of 85h temps and 5h heights show heights steadily falling thru Wed
and temps slowly decreasing. Wrn areas will likely be below normal
especially Mon-Thur due the clouds/lower heights if not precip.
Fri-Sun heights increase again and sly fetch is shut off with
drier/hotter wx returning for all areas, which is corroborated in
the GEFS ensemble runs of 1-2 positive standard deviations
anomalies.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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839
FXUS64 KMAF 170847
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
347 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
This afternoon the subtropical ridge will be centered INVOF nrn
AZ and a well established NE 5h wind will be in place across the
CWFA. Still there will be the presence of higher theta-e air across
the area, moreso at 7h than 5h. Meanwhile there are still outflow
boundaries across the area, one such has moved thru SE NM and into
the Upper Trans Pecos this morning. NAM12/ECMWF are rather eager
to develop SHRA/TSRA this PM, TTU WRF does too, but confines
precip more or less to areas of I-20. Current fcst has a pretty
good handle on that and will only need to extend chance PoPs a
little farther e into Terrell Co.. Monday looks to be a down day
precip wise across the plains, but enough mstr/heating in mtns for
diurnally driven SHRA/TSRA in the slght chc range. By Tue the
subtropical ridge breaks down over the area with a short-fetch sly
flow developing. Sly mid level flow is usually a good signal for
precip and higher theta-e air does move back into the area, but no
real evidence of a shrtwv trof. Thus PoPs mainly focused around
the mtns and Lower Trans Pecos. ECMWF/Canadian continue to amplify
the pattern with a well a defined mid level theta-e ridge and a
longer sly mid level fetch, evident in the 5h height field Wed into
Thur. Accordingly so both models bring a slug of higher QPF nwd
Wed and Thur. Of course difficult to say where it will be, but
generally from Big Bend into Upper Trans Pecos/wrn PB seems the
favored areas for now. This could be heavy rain too. A time series
of 85h temps and 5h heights show heights steadily falling thru Wed
and temps slowly decreasing. Wrn areas will likely be below normal
especially Mon-Thur due the clouds/lower heights if not precip.
Fri-Sun heights increase again and sly fetch is shut off with
drier/hotter wx returning for all areas, which is corroborated in
the GEFS ensemble runs of 1-2 positive standard deviations
anomalies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 95  69  94  71  /  20  20  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              97  74  97  75  /  20  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                95  70  94  71  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  97  76  95  77  /  30  30  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           92  68  93  72  /  30  30  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          89  65  84  65  /  30  30  20  20
HOBBS NM                   94  67  92  68  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   86  59  84  61  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    95  72  94  73  /  20  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  94  72  93  74  /  20  20  10  10
WINK TX                    97  72  96  74  /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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901
FXUS64 KMAF 170608
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
108 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 17/06Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Another complex situation this morning with surface outflow boundaries
all over the place, multicell TSRA clusters from 60 nm S KFST up to
about KSJT, isolated TSRA from 20 nm N KMDD to near KSNK, and a decaying
MCS near KROW with additional development occurring south near KATS.
Examination of WV imagery indicates the axis of a midlevel shortwave
trough trending WSW-ENE from near KELP through KSWW to KDFW. This trough
is slowly sagging southward and will have an impact on area terminals
through at least sunrise. Deep layer ascent occurring ahead of
the shortwave trough is acting on significant midlevel moisture to
create conditions favorable for continued southeastward propagation
of the multicell clusters as well as additional TSRA development just
about anywhere.

So, what does all this mean in English? Through about noon and outside
of TSRA, look for VFR conditions to prevail with mid and high level
cloud decks. INVOF TSRA, expect gusty winds to maybe 35 kts with
FQT LTGCG and ceilings staying VFR, although visibilities in RA may
fall to AOB 2SM in storm cores. There is also the potential for hybrid
microbursts with the activity this morning.

Surface winds will be chaotic given the TSRA activity but should
gradually become easterly to southeasterly by midday. Drier air
behind the shortwave trough should keep TSRA activity away from
KHOB, KINK, KMAF, and KPEQ, while isolated TSRA may affect KCNM
and KFST sometime in the 21Z-02Z time range. Confidence is too low
right now to include mention of TSRA at these locations, but it
bears watching nonetheless. After 02Z, look for TSRA coverage to
be down across the Big Bend and upper trans-Pecos regions of west
Texas with VFR conditions and light southeasterly winds Sunday
night at all terminals.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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136
FXUS64 KMAF 162316
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible at TAF locations this evening.
Expect gusty winds in and near thunderstorms that develop. VFR
conditions are forecast through the period. Isolated thunderstorms
will again be possible on Sunday with locations to the west and
south having better thunderstorm chances.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

..Updated preliminary point temps/pops...

Upper ridge will remain over the region through the week and does
not appear to be going away anytime soon.  Models do develop a cut
off low off CA coast next week but it does not look to help us much.
The low weakens as it moves east passing over the top of the ridge.
So overall expect little day to day change in wx pattern this week.

Northwest flow around the ridge has allowed a shortwave to track
down across the area today resulting in scattered showers across the
Permian basin this morning and an increase in cloud cover.  These
clouds have lingered into the afternoon and kept temps down across
most of the region with upper 90s observed closer to the Rio
Grande.  Warmer temperatures should return on Sunday with above
normal readings expected most of the week.

Afternoon storms have developed over the mountains as day time
heating kicked in.  These will continue into the evening hours
primarily south of the Pecos river but could be a few showers/storms
across the northern half of the area.  A weak surface trough will
remain across the area and could help a little in storm development.
Will keep highest pops over the Davis Mtns... Marfa Plateau... and
northern Brewster county as afternoon storms look to be a good bet
there next several days.  Locally heavy rain will be possible
tonight and will highlight in HWO but storms are moving which should
lessen flash flood threat.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

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779
FXUS64 KMAF 162038
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
338 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...Updated preliminary point temps/pops...

Upper ridge will remain over the region through the week and does
not appear to be going away anytime soon.  Models do develop a cut
off low off CA coast next week but it does not look to help us much.
The low weakens as it moves east passing over the top of the ridge.
So overall expect little day to day change in wx pattern this week.

Northwest flow around the ridge has allowed a shortwave to track
down across the area today resulting in scattered showers across the
Permian basin this morning and an increase in cloud cover.  These
clouds have lingered into the afternoon and kept temps down across
most of the region with upper 90s observed closer to the Rio
Grande.  Warmer temperatures should return on Sunday with above
normal readings expected most of the week.

Afternoon storms have developed over the mountains as day time
heating kicked in.  These will continue into the evening hours
primarily south of the Pecos river but could be a few showers/storms
across the northern half of the area.  A weak surface trough will
remain across the area and could help a little in storm development.
Will keep highest pops over the Davis Mtns... Marfa Plateau... and
northern Brewster county as afternoon storms look to be a good bet
there next several days.  Locally heavy rain will be possible
tonight and will highlight in HWO but storms are moving which should
lessen flash flood threat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71  95  70  95  /  20  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  96  74  97  /  20  20  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                71  97  70  95  /  30  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  79  98  77  98  /  20  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  96  72  95  /  30  30  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68  88  65  85  /  30  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   68  94  68  93  /  20  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   63  87  62  86  /  30  30  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  96  73  95  /  20  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  74  96  73  93  /  20  20  20  10
WINK TX                    74  99  73  99  /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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131
FXUS64 KMAF 162019
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
319 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge will remain over the region through the week and does
not appear to be going away anytime soon.  Models do develop a cut
off low off CA coast next week but it does not look to help us much.
The low weakens as it moves east passing over the top of the ridge.
So overall expect little day to day change in wx pattern this week.

Northwest flow around the ridge has allowed a shortwave to track
down across the area today resulting in scattered showers across the
Permian basin this morning and an increase in cloud cover.  These
clouds have lingered into the afternoon and kept temps down across
most of the region with upper 90s observed closer to the Rio
Grande.  Warmer temperatures should return on Sunday with above
normal readings expected most of the week.  Nights will be warm.

Afternoon storms have developed over the mountains as day time
heating kicked in.  These will continue into the evening hours
primarily south of the Pecos river but could be a few showers/storms
across the northern half of the area.  A weak surface trough will
remain across the area and could help a little in storm development.
Will keep highest pops over the Davis Mtns... Marfa Plateau... and
northern Brewster county as afternoon storms look to be a good bet
there next several days.  Locally heavy rain will be possible
tonight and will highlight in HWO but storms are moving which should
lessen flash flood threat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71  93  70  95  /  20  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              75  95  74  97  /  20  20  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                71  97  70  92  /  30  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  80 100  77  98  /  20  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  93  72  93  /  30  30  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68  87  65  83  /  30  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   68  92  67  91  /  20  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   61  86  61  86  /  30  30  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  93  73  95  /  20  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  74  93  73  93  /  20  20  20  10
WINK TX                    74  96  73  96  /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/72

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