Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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807
FXUS64 KMAF 250530
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1230 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
light out of the south to west tonight and will transition to the
west around 15z and become gusty and elevated. Winds will
transition to the southwest around 12z and will remain elevated
until after 00z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 911 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/

UPDATE...
Have updated the forecast for the expiration of the Red Flag
Warning in southeast New Mexico south through the Davis Mountains.
Critical fire weather conditions have ended across these areas
this evening however another afternoon of critical fire weather
conditions will follow Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
West winds will continue across the area the next several days
keeping it breezy, dry, and warm. Winds will be briefly strong in
the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and again tomorrow
afternoon but will not issue a warning due to it`s isolated and
brief nature. Tuesday will be different as an upper level low
moves into the Central Plains. The jet stream wrapping around the
southern periphery of the low will be favorably positioned to
bring stronger and more widespread winds to the Guadalupe
Mountains and thus have continued the High Wind Watch. Some of
these winds will mix into the lower elevations in southeastern New
Mexico and an advisory may be needed for this area in the next 24
to 36 hours.

Models were originally developing a dryline in the central Permian
Basin on Tuesday with the low developing storms in the eastern
Permian Basin. It now appears the dryline will be in the eastern
Permian Basin and unfortunately any precipitation will likely be
east of our CWA. Thursday another low moves into the western U.S.
increasing moisture and instability and giving most locations east
of the Pecos River a chance for rain. Models are not consistent
with the track of the upper low so confidence is not high in the
rain forecast for late in the week, but cities in the east will
have a better chance than cities farther west.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Today began what looks like several fire weather days for the area.
Temperatures have warmed quickly into the 80`s this afternoon and
stronger winds continue to mix down across the western half of the
region. The current Red Flag Warning looks good and will not make
any changes. Very similar conditions are expected tomorrow as
another upper trough develops over the Four Corners. Winds on
Monday look slightly less than today, but still gusty in the
Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains. Will upgrade the watch to a
warning for SE NM and the Guadalupe Mountains for tomorrow. The
upper trough will eject out onto the Plains Tuesday leading to more
fire weather concerns across the area. A dryline will surge east
with most of the region seeing critical rh`s by early afternoon.
Stronger winds will also mix down, especially over the higher
terrain and adjacent plains. A Fire Weather Watch will likely be
needed for these areas, if not further east if drying trends
continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  84  51  83 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       55  77  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         61  92  59  89 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  57  87  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  68  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          51  74  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          44  78  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           58  84  53  84 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         59  84  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           57  85  49  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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