Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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370
FXUS64 KMAF 192123
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
423 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field Monday by late morning,
w/bases 4.5-7 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 140 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered along the NM/CO border this morning will
slowly wobble north. By Monday the ridge axis will stretch from
Southern CA across AZ... CO... KS to MO.  This will allow easterly
flow to move under the ridge.  However by Tuesday the ridge will
begin to build southward and hotter temps will soon follow.

After a string of 100 degree days widespread cloud cover across the
northern half of the area has held temps down so far today. Temps
will be warmer on Monday and back to near normal.  By Tuesday
readings will climb above normal with 100s returning to parts of the
area by Wednesday.  Above normal through the end of the forecast.

A shortwave triggered a MCS this morning that moved down the
east side of the area bringing a nice rain to the NE Permian Basin.
Remains of this feature have pushed south and were beginning tonight
up again across the Lower Trans Pecos as of 18z.  What remains of
rain chances tonight and Monday should be limited to southern CWA.
Model qpf develops some precip across the south tonight but one
model also puts a bullseye over Permian Basin.  Have raised pops
tonight to slight chance close to the Rio Grand but have not added
any pops to the Permian Basin.  Some low random pops in the extended
but nothing significant at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  91  70  94 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       68  95  67  96 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         73  95  74  97 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  70  93  70  95 /  10  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 67  88  66  89 /  10  10   0  10
Hobbs                          66  91  66  93 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          59  86  59  88 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  93  70  96 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         71  93  71  95 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           71  95  70  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/84/44

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