Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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100
FXUS64 KMAF 091728
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. Light occasionally gusty
south/southwest winds today and tonight will shift from the
northwest late in the TAF period behind a surface trough.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...

It will be hot today and Wednesday, however a couple of cold fronts
will move into the area Wednesday and Friday to cool things off.  We
may see some record high temperatures around the Permian Basin
ahead of the first frontal boundary Wednesday, but the subsequent
cool off will be accompanied by a chance of rain from Wednesday
through Saturday.  An ua ridge continues to roost over the region,
but a passing shortwave trough over the central U.S. Plains will
strengthen a surface low over the Plains, and a surface trough
southward into the region.  A low level thermal ridge will also
spread eastward, and more or less line up with the surface trough.
Temperatures will warm 5 to 10 degrees above normal as a result.
There could be widely scattered thunderstorms in the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains, and the adjacent plains as there appears to be
enough low level moisture over the soon to be heated higher terrain.
Not expecting much coverage, but a dry subcloud layer could result
in gusty winds over 50 mph in some of these storms.

The first cold front will drop south in the wake of the mentioned
Plains shortwave trough, and arrive in northern reaches of the
forecast area Wednesday afternoon/evening.  Afternoon high
temperatures will soar ahead of the frontal boundary, with a few
areas testing record high temperature levels.  Consequently, the
record high for Midland International Airport for September 10th is
101, set in 2000.  There could be more thunderstorms in and near the
Davis and Glass Mountains, in the vicinity of a surface low shifting
south ahead of the front.  Low level moisture will increase a little
behind the front over the northern third or so of the forecast area
into the evening.  Isolated thunderstorms could form in these areas
through the afternoon in a hot, but only modestly unstable airmass.
However, more scattered thunderstorms could form Wednesday evening/
overnight as a weak shortwave trough or two skirts the northwestern
fringe of the weakening ua ridge.  The front will sag south to the
Interstate 20, or Interstate 10, corridor Thursday morning.  The
boundary will likely remain there into the afternoon, with scattered
thunderstorms possible within an easterly upslope flow regime into
the evening and overnight.  Since plentiful moisture appears to pool
along the front, and storms could train along the boundary under
weak flow aloft, heavy rainfall will be possible.  Later shifts will
have to monitor for a better fix on where the front will be Thursday
afternoon/evening, but also for the potential for heavy rainfall, if
not localized flash flooding.

A potent, compact shortwave trough will translate eastward across
the northern U.S. Plains Thursday/Thursday night with an
unseasonably cold airmass dropping rapidly south in it`s wake.  The
airmass is more akin to what we would see in October, so have tended
the timing to the faster models.  High temperatures will not be
spectacularly cool Thursday afternoon, but could be 5 to 10 degrees
below normal north of Interstate 20.  In addition, scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and behind the front
with widespread cloud cover likely aiding in keeping temperatures
down.  As the surface ridge builds farther south into the area
Friday night and Saturday, expect the cloud cover to keep lows from
bottoming out too much Saturday morning, but they could, in turn,
keep high temperatures well below normal.  For now, have gone 15 to
20 degrees below normal for Saturday as cloud cover does appear to
hang around through the day, as does a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms.  Temperatures will begin to warm Sunday and beyond as
the surface ridge eases eastward and the ua ridge remains overhead.
Some models are indicating the development of a tropical system off
the western Mexican coast early next week.  If the ua ridge is still
in a weakened state by then, we may be in a favorable position for
some of the storm`s mid and upper level moisture to spread over the
region.  We could see rain chances increase as a result, and
temperatures remain near or below normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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