Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 161139

639 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014



Expect falling cigs as low clouds over the South Plains hiding
under extensive mid cloud deck move south. Will see development
of MVFR cigs and vsbys as some fog forms.  Best chance of rain/storms
will be at CNM.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014/


Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, under perpetually OVC skies.  Sfc obs show a weak cold
front in the S. Plains, but models stall it just north of the FA
this morning.  To the SW, T.S. Odile was nearly halfway up the Baja
peninsula, and looks to be the source region for rainfall the next
few days.  KMAF 00Z RAOB came in w/a pwats of 1.67", which is about 2
STD DEVs from normal for this time of year.  Models maintain these
high pwats thru at least Saturday night, w/Tds at KMAF remaining at
64F or better during the duration.  Expect current convection to
develop further and intensify today as a vort band from Odile
develops into the area from the west and over the top of the upper
ridge to the south.  Considered issuing a FFA for wrn zones today,
but would rather wait until Odile has made her turn to the NE.
Otherwise, models keep breaking off disturbances from Odile over the
next few days, and sending them E-SE thru the region.  Given
saturated soils from last week`s rains, FFG area-wide will remain
low, and the flash flood threat will be the main concern.  We`ll
continue to emphasize this in the HWO for now, as well as an SPS.

For temps, overcast skies look to dominate most of this forecast,
w/plenty of mid/high lvl moisture spinning off Odile.  Thus, we`ve
generally narrowed the diurnal spread of the MOS numbers, w/H85 temp
trends and forecast soundings suggesting staying closer to the
warmer GFS as opposed to the cooler ECMWF.  Saturday night,
long-range models are in agreement in bringing a cold front thru the
area, courtesy of an upper trough forecast to dig into the MS
Valley.  This should knock temps down to below-normal Sunday, and
scour excess moisture from the area.  We`ve raised POPs Saturday
night for fropa.

Only other concerns are the Rio Grande, where releases from Luis
Leon may aggravate things later in the week.  Stay tuned.





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