Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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598
FXUS64 KMAF 290535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with few clouds. Light S/SW wind overnight will come around to the
north during the day as a weak front moves through the area.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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136
FXUS64 KMAF 282256
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
No aviation issues expected over the next day so will continue
with VFR conditions in the TAFs. Winds may get a little gusty
though Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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024
FXUS64 KMAF 281707
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will
mostly be out of the southwest to west with a gradual change to the
northwest for some locations this afternoon.  Winds will weaken
overnight and will be somewhat variable.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The warming trend continues today as upper ridging to the west,
along with the 850mb thermal ridge, inch eastward throughout the
day. Generally have westerly winds at the surface and sunny skies
which will aide in afternoon temperatures warming to the upper 80s
and low 90s. Could see a short period of near critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon across portions of the Guadalupe
Mountains and will handle this with a Fire Danger Statement for
this area. Much of the same can be expected Sunday regardless of a
slow wind shift to the N throughout the day. MOS Guidance has
proved to be a little too warm lately so will undercut temps
slightly at most places for today and tomorrow. This lovely
stretch of warm temps will briefly come to an end with the arrival
of a cold front Sunday evening. Near normal temperatures (70s) can
be expected Monday and Tuesday.

Models continue to advertise an upper trough approaching the region
from the west early next week. Thunderstorm chances look to begin
late Monday night and continue on into Tuesday as upper forcing for
ascent moves across the region. Best chances will generally be
confined to the eastern half of the CWA, where best low level
moisture will reside. Model soundings continue to indicate somewhat
dry air in the mid-levels, which could definitely be a limiting
factor in thunderstorm development so kept PoPs to chance and slight
chance.

Beyond Tuesday, dry conditions and above normal temperatures return
under zonal flow aloft. Another cold front will move through late in
the week and we could start next weekend with below normal temps and
potential rain chances. Will keep PoPs below mention for now.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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154
FXUS64 KMAF 281121
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with mostly clear skies today. Light southerly wind
this morning will become more westerly and increase in speed by
midday as leeside trough deepens.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The warming trend continues today as upper ridging to the west,
along with the 850mb thermal ridge, inch eastward throughout the
day. Generally have westerly winds at the surface and sunny skies
which will aide in afternoon temperatures warming to the upper 80s
and low 90s. Could see a short period of near critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon across portions of the Guadalupe
Mountains and will handle this with a Fire Danger Statement for
this area. Much of the same can be expected Sunday regardless of a
slow wind shift to the N throughout the day. MOS Guidance has
proved to be a little too warm lately so will undercut temps
slightly at most places for today and tomorrow. This lovely
stretch of warm temps will briefly come to an end with the arrival
of a cold front Sunday evening. Near normal temperatures (70s) can
be expected Monday and Tuesday.

Models continue to advertise an upper trough approaching the region
from the west early next week. Thunderstorm chances look to begin
late Monday night and continue on into Tuesday as upper forcing for
ascent moves across the region. Best chances will generally be
confined to the eastern half of the CWA, where best low level
moisture will reside. Model soundings continue to indicate somewhat
dry air in the mid-levels, which could definitely be a limiting
factor in thunderstorm development so kept PoPs to chance and slight
chance.

Beyond Tuesday, dry conditions and above normal temperatures return
under zonal flow aloft. Another cold front will move through late in
the week and we could start next weekend with below normal temps and
potential rain chances. Will keep PoPs below mention for now.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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025
FXUS64 KMAF 280536
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1236 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with clear skies across the region.  Light southerly wind tonight
will become more westerly during the day as surface trough deepens.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows a broad ridge over the western CONUS, leaving West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico under NW flow aloft.  SW sfc flow has
allowed afternoon temps to rebound to near-normal, w/a couple of
degrees left to go.

Upper ridge will begin breaking down and nudging east over the next
24 hours in response to a trough making landfall in the PacNW.
However, heights/thicknesses will continue increasing thru Sunday as
the ridge moves overhead, resulting in well-abv normal temps
Sat/Sun, w/Sun especially feeling like late May.  However, despite
this, guidance seems a bit warm, w/diurnal spreads to big, perhaps
because both the NAM and GFS initialized too dry on sfc Td.
Forecast soundings and H85 temps suggest staying on the lower end.
Even so, temps should be the warmest yet this spring, w/an elevated
fire danger Saturday from the Guadalupes to the Davis/Apache Mtns.

Unfortunately, this comes to an end Sunday night as a cold front
from the aforementioned PacNW trough moves thru the area, w/fropa at
KMAF at around 23Z Sun.  Latest ECMWF is faster, but w/fronts
weakening as Spring progresses, and diurnal heating Sunday
afternoon, the front will probably stall for a few hrs Sunday
afternoon to the north.  This should take temps back down to around
normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary trough will make landfall in SoCal/Nrn Baja
and approach the region, transitioning flow aloft to SW Monday.
Monday night and Tuesday, the trough will move thru the region,
w/the GFS slightly faster/shallower than the ECMWF/DGEX/CMC.  W/the
50 deg isodrosotherm forecast to be west of mid-CWA by 06Z Tuesday,
this will be our best shot at rain this forecast.  Forecast
soundings of the lwr Trans Pecos develop SBCapes in excess of 1000
J/kg, w/PWATs of around 1", or 3 std devs abv normal.  Attm, shear
looks lousy w/the arrival of the trough, but wet-bulb zero heights
will be favorable for a marginal hail threat.

Otherwise, a gradual warmup follows the trough under zonal flow
aloft, w/flat, dirty ridging in place, w/temps above-normal into the
extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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520
FXUS64 KMAF 272323
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will
mostly be light out of the south to southwest before becoming
westerly to northwesterly Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows a broad ridge over the western CONUS, leaving West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico under NW flow aloft.  SW sfc flow has
allowed afternoon temps to rebound to near-normal, w/a couple of
degrees left to go.

Upper ridge will begin breaking down and nudging east over the next
24 hours in response to a trough making landfall in the PacNW.
However, heights/thicknesses will continue increasing thru Sunday as
the ridge moves overhead, resulting in well-abv normal temps
Sat/Sun, w/Sun especially feeling like late May.  However, despite
this, guidance seems a bit warm, w/diurnal spreads to big, perhaps
because both the NAM and GFS initialized too dry on sfc Td.
Forecast soundings and H85 temps suggest staying on the lower end.
Even so, temps should be the warmest yet this spring, w/an elevated
fire danger Saturday from the Guadalupes to the Davis/Apache Mtns.

Unfortunately, this comes to an end Sunday night as a cold front
from the aforementioned PacNW trough moves thru the area, w/fropa at
KMAF at around 23Z Sun.  Latest ECMWF is faster, but w/fronts
weakening as Spring progresses, and diurnal heating Sunday
afternoon, the front will probably stall for a few hrs Sunday
afternoon to the north.  This should take temps back down to around
normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary trough will make landfall in SoCal/Nrn Baja
and approach the region, transitioning flow aloft to SW Monday.
Monday night and Tuesday, the trough will move thru the region,
w/the GFS slightly faster/shallower than the ECMWF/DGEX/CMC.  W/the
50 deg isodrosotherm forecast to be west of mid-CWA by 06Z Tuesday,
this will be our best shot at rain this forecast.  Forecast
soundings of the lwr Trans Pecos develop SBCapes in excess of 1000
J/kg, w/PWATs of around 1", or 3 std devs abv normal.  Attm, shear
looks lousy w/the arrival of the trough, but wet-bulb zero heights
will be favorable for a marginal hail threat.

Otherwise, a gradual warmup follows the trough under zonal flow
aloft, w/flat, dirty ridging in place, w/temps above-normal into the
extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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133
FXUS64 KMAF 271704
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions under clear skies with light winds.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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336
FXUS64 KMAF 271100
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mostly clear skies and light southwest winds the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Light winds, clear skies and cool temps tonight with surface high
pressure in place. Dry NW flow aloft will continue today with an
upper trough to the east and upper ridging to the west. At the
surface, lee troughing will extend southward through eastern NM
today and downsloping SW winds at the surface will become more
established areawide. As a result, afternoon high temperatures will
rebound to the upper 70s and 80s.

Upper ridging (to the west) and 850mb thermal ridge will shift
eastward Saturday, allowing temps to warm to the upper 80s to near
90 across the CWA. Could see the same for Sunday, however models
suggest a cold front may affect highs depending on timing of the
northerly wind shift. As of now, the front looks to enter northern
zones Sunday evening so we have a good chance of at least warming
into the 80s most areas and 90s south near the Rio Grande. Will
continue to monitor the arrival time of the front for any
adjustments to the highs in future forecast packages. Conditions
will be slightly cooler on Monday.

Still not expecting any precip with the initial frontal passage
however an eastward moving upper disturbance (advertised by the
GFS and ECMWF) may provide some support for thunderstorm
development Monday night and Tuesday. Confidence is increasing
regarding thunderstorm chances but still a little uncertain of the
outcome so will continue with fairly low PoPs for now. Beyond
Tuesday, dry conditions and above normal temperatures return under
zonal flow aloft.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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148
FXUS64 KMAF 270502
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1202 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light southwest winds through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015/

A nice and quiet weekend is expected with a dry northwesterly flow
aloft regime in place. Much above normal temperatures are expected
for most areas due to the formation of surface lee troughing with
downslope flow and mostly clear skies.

An upper level trough digging across the the plains will push
a cold front south into the forecast area either Sunday or
Monday. Obviously this front could impact the high temperature
forecast for Sunday, so later shifts will need to monitor.
Either way temperatures will only get bumped back to near
normal values by Monday. A weak and quick southern stream Pacific
storm system looks in the offing late Monday resulting in a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Behind this system zonal flow is forecast with much above normal
temperatures developing again next Tuesday through Thursday as
another surface lee trough forms with downslope and low
level thermal ridging anticipated.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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806
FXUS64 KMAF 262316
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015/

A nice and quiet weekend is expected with a dry northwesterly flow
aloft regime in place. Much above normal temperatures are expected
for most areas due to the formation of surface lee troughing with
downslope flow and mostly clear skies.

An upper level trough digging across the the plains will push
a cold front south into the forecast area either Sunday or
Monday. Obviously this front could impact the high temperature
forecast for Sunday, so later shifts will need to monitor.
Either way temperatures will only get bumped back to near
normal values by Monday. A weak and quick southern stream Pacific
storm system looks in the offing late Monday resulting in a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Behind this system zonal flow is forecast with much above normal
temperatures developing again next Tuesday through Thursday as
another surface lee trough forms with downslope and low
level thermal ridging anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 42  81  48  88  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              44  81  48  91  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                39  81  43  89  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  43  79  50  91  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           45  83  56  90  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  73  52  82  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   39  78  45  86  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   28  75  33  83  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    43  80  47  88  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  44  81  51  88  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    39  84  46  90  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/12

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194
FXUS64 KMAF 261713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours...after MVFR cigs sctter
out at KFST.  Northerly flow will back to the SW.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front has pushed south through the region fairly quickly
tonight with gusty north winds persisting areawide. Although winds
are fairly strong, most locations are below Wind Advisory
criteria and we don`t expect winds to come back up. As a result,
went ahead and cancelled the Wind Advisory. High winds through
Guadalupe Pass will continue through mid morning and a High Wind
Warning remains for this location. Winds will diminish through the
morning hours as the surface pressure gradient relaxes and a
surface ridge settles into the area. High temperatures will be
about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday with readings in the 60s
most places.

Dry NW flow aloft will develop today as an upper trough moves east
of the region. At the surface, lee troughing will develop by Friday
resulting in the return of downsloping SW winds at the surface. This
will allow temperatures to rebound to the 70s and 80s Friday and
Saturday. Upper ridging and warmer 850mb temps will shift eastward
Sunday and highs will warm to the upper 80s and low 90s across the
region. The warm/dry pattern looks to be interrupted early next week
with the passage of a weak cold front that will knock temps back
into the 70s and low 80s for Monday. As of now, not expecting any
precip with the initial arrival of the cold front however an
eastward moving upper disturbance may provide some support for
thunderstorm development Monday night and Tuesday. Still quite a bit
of disagreement amongst the forecast models regarding the exact
strength and track of this system so slight chance PoPs look good
for now.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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226
FXUS64 KMAF 261514
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1014 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.UPDATE...

Current ob at KGDP shows winds just under criteria, w/latest
models indicating pressure gradients relaxing into this afternoon.
We`ll do a quick update to remove the High Wind Warning from the
grids, and freshen up other parameters as necessary.  Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
North winds will continue subsiding today, becoming light and
shifting from the southwest after 00Z. Near MVFR CIGs are
developing across the area this morning but should only persist
for a couple of hours before dissipating or moving southeast.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front has pushed south through the region fairly quickly
tonight with gusty north winds persisting areawide. Although winds
are fairly strong, most locations are below Wind Advisory
criteria and we don`t expect winds to come back up. As a result,
went ahead and cancelled the Wind Advisory. High winds through
Guadalupe Pass will continue through mid morning and a High Wind
Warning remains for this location. Winds will diminish through the
morning hours as the surface pressure gradient relaxes and a
surface ridge settles into the area. High temperatures will be
about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday with readings in the 60s
most places.

Dry NW flow aloft will develop today as an upper trough moves east
of the region. At the surface, lee troughing will develop by Friday
resulting in the return of downsloping SW winds at the surface. This
will allow temperatures to rebound to the 70s and 80s Friday and
Saturday. Upper ridging and warmer 850mb temps will shift eastward
Sunday and highs will warm to the upper 80s and low 90s across the
region. The warm/dry pattern looks to be interrupted early next week
with the passage of a weak cold front that will knock temps back
into the 70s and low 80s for Monday. As of now, not expecting any
precip with the initial arrival of the cold front however an
eastward moving upper disturbance may provide some support for
thunderstorm development Monday night and Tuesday. Still quite a bit
of disagreement amongst the forecast models regarding the exact
strength and track of this system so slight chance PoPs look good
for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  41  79  47  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              66  43  81  49  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                65  38  81  47  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  69  44  79  48  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           62  43  80  51  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  43  73  51  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   63  39  78  45  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   61  31  73  37  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  41  79  47  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  64  43  79  49  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    65  38  81  45  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/12

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432
FXUS64 KMAF 261116
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
North winds will continue subsiding today, becoming light and
shifting from the southwest after 00Z. Near MVFR CIGs are
developing across the area this morning but should only persist
for a couple of hours before dissipating or moving southeast.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front has pushed south through the region fairly quickly
tonight with gusty north winds persisting areawide. Although winds
are fairly strong, most locations are below Wind Advisory
criteria and we don`t expect winds to come back up. As a result,
went ahead and cancelled the Wind Advisory. High winds through
Guadalupe Pass will continue through mid morning and a High Wind
Warning remains for this location. Winds will diminish through the
morning hours as the surface pressure gradient relaxes and a
surface ridge settles into the area. High temperatures will be
about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday with readings in the 60s
most places.

Dry NW flow aloft will develop today as an upper trough moves east
of the region. At the surface, lee troughing will develop by Friday
resulting in the return of downsloping SW winds at the surface. This
will allow temperatures to rebound to the 70s and 80s Friday and
Saturday. Upper ridging and warmer 850mb temps will shift eastward
Sunday and highs will warm to the upper 80s and low 90s across the
region. The warm/dry pattern looks to be interrupted early next week
with the passage of a weak cold front that will knock temps back
into the 70s and low 80s for Monday. As of now, not expecting any
precip with the initial arrival of the cold front however an
eastward moving upper disturbance may provide some support for
thunderstorm development Monday night and Tuesday. Still quite a bit
of disagreement amongst the forecast models regarding the exact
strength and track of this system so slight chance PoPs look good
for now.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10

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721
FXUS64 KMAF 260531
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1231 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front will bring gusty north winds to the TAF sites the
next 6 hours. BLDU will restrict visibilities mainly at MAF and
possibly INK through 08Z before winds diminish some and VIS
improves. MVFR CIGs showing on ASOS observations are not real, but
blowing dust being mistakenly reported as CIG so it has not been
included in any TAFs. Winds will be much lighter after 12Z
becoming southerly late in the TAF period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Strong cold front currently across the Texas Panhandle will
quickly plunge south overnight and be well south of the region
in Mexico by sunrise Thursday morning. Consensus progged surface
pressure gradient suggest that the stronger mav guidance winds
look more reasonable tonight. Will issue a Wind Advisory for
southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas tonight except the
Presidio Valley. Will continue the High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Pass of west Texas tonight through mid Thursday morning
and increase wind speeds by 10 mph. In addition Low level
convergence along the advancing front with some forcing from the
upper trough could spark some showers and thunderstorms across the
extreme eastern Permian Basin in the deeper moisture. Due to the
expected winds will include areas of blowing dust across all of
west Texas and southeast New Mexico.

Dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop behind the
upper trough Thursday through the weekend. After a cool Thursday
high temperatures will climb to much above normal values again by
Friday as more surface lee troughing develops with downslope flow
and mostly clear skies expected.

A Pacific storm system looks in the offing early next week with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms expected at this time
next Monday night and Tuesday. Near to above normal temperatures
are expected early next week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Very warm this afternoon as temperatures have climbed into the 80s.
This has combined with dry conditions over some parts of the area to
produce rh values below 15 percent.  West winds in the 10 to 20 mph
range have produced near critical conditions across SE NM... the
Trans Pecos... and Western Permian Basin.  A check of area RAWS
sites show 20ft winds near but below 20 mph range but localized Red
Flag conditions are possible.  A Fire Danger Statement remains in
effect for these areas.  Wind speeds should begin to decrease
by late afternoon.  A strong cold front will blow through the region
tonight with a gusty north wind with 20ft winds exceeded 20 mph but
rh values will be increasing as moisture increases and temperatures
fall.  Cooler temperatures and higher rh expected tomorrow.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY until 7 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...Crane...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10

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441
FXUS64 KMAF 252346
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
646 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A
cold front is currently moving south through eastern New Mexico
and the Texas Panhandle, expected to reach KHOB and KCNM by
02-03Z, KMAF and KINK by around 04Z, KPEQ by 05Z, and finally KFST
by 06Z. Winds will shift to the north and increase, with gusts
over 30kt possible. The gusts will gradually diminish through
Thursday morning, though breezy conditions could continue into the
afternoon, particularly for KMAF and KFST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Strong cold front currently across the Texas Panhandle will
quickly plunge south overnight and be well south of the region
in Mexico by sunrise Thursday morning. Consensus progged surface
pressure gradient suggest that the stronger mav guidance winds
look more reasonable tonight. Will issue a Wind Advisory for
southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas tonight except the
Presidio Valley. Will continue the High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Pass of west Texas tonight through mid Thursday morning
and increase wind speeds by 10 mph. In addition Low level
convergence along the advancing front with some forcing from the
upper trough could spark some showers and thunderstorms across the
extreme eastern Permian Basin in the deeper moisture. Due to the
expected winds will include areas of blowing dust across all of
west Texas and southeast New Mexico.

Dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop behind the
upper trough Thursday through the weekend. After a cool Thursday
high temperatures will climb to much above normal values again by
Friday as more surface lee troughing develops with downslope flow
and mostly clear skies expected.

A Pacific storm system looks in the offing early next week with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms expected at this time
next Monday night and Tuesday. Near to above normal temperatures
are expected early next week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Very warm this afternoon as temperatures have climbed into the 80s.
This has combined with dry conditions over some parts of the area to
produce rh values below 15 percent.  West winds in the 10 to 20 mph
range have produced near critical conditions across SE NM... the
Trans Pecos... and Western Permian Basin.  A check of area RAWS
sites show 20ft winds near but below 20 mph range but localized Red
Flag conditions are possible.  A Fire Danger Statement remains in
effect for these areas.  Wind speeds should begin to decrease
by late afternoon.  A strong cold front will blow through the region
tonight with a gusty north wind with 20ft winds exceeded 20 mph but
rh values will be increasing as moisture increases and temperatures
fall.  Cooler temperatures and higher rh expected tomorrow.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY until 7 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Thursday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Marfa Plateau...Pecos...Terrell.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Thursday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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379
FXUS64 KMAF 251735
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
West wind has begun to pick up as the wind aloft mixes down. CNM
has highest wind so far but this should spread east to other TAF
sites. Wind should decrease late afternoon/early evening before a
strong cold front blows into the area tonight with a very gusty
north wind... gusts to 30kts or more possible as is blowing dust.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Current satellite shows an upper level trough over northern
Wyoming. This trough will move into the Central Plains today
increasing westerly winds and pushing drier air across most of the
area. This dry air and clear skies will send highs today well
above normal reaching the mid 80s for many locations.

The upper trough will move east tonight sending a cold front south
arriving in the Permian Basin around sunset. Winds behind the
front will shift from the northeast and become very windy for a
short period before quickly diminishing early Thursday morning.
Sustained wind speeds may exceed 30 mph briefly tonight but the
duration is not expected to be long enough to warrant the issuance
of an advisory at this time. Winds at Guadalupe Pass will become
strong and the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a warning.

Thursday will be around 20 degrees cooler and a very pleasant day
as winds continue to diminish. An upper level ridge over the
western U.S. will move east over the weekend and dampen, bringing
a return of westerly mid and upper level flow. This will cause
temperatures to warm back up above normal with Saturday and Sunday
providing good BBQ weather.

Models continue to show an upper level low approaching Texas and
New Mexico early next week. The GFS and ECMWF continue to handle
the location of this feature differently though the ECMWF seems to
be trending more towards the GFS solution of a southerly track
across southern California and along the U.S./Mexico border. The
Canadian GEM also agrees with this southerly track. The main
difference between these models is the strength of the low. The
GFS is strongest and thus shows better rain chances than the other
models. Will continue the slight chance PoPs during this time
period and will wait for better agreement before making any
significant PoP changes.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will increase from the west today as a surface low deepens
just NE of the CWA. In addition, above normal temps and very dry
conditions will result in afternoon minimum relative humidities
near 10-15 percent most areas. With 20 foot winds approaching or
exceeding critical thresholds across most locations, elevated to
near critical fire weather concerns can be expected. Greatest
concern will be across the Guadalupe Mountains, where low end Red
Flag conditions will be possible for 3-4 hours at the most.
Confidence is not high enough to go with a Red Flag Warning so
will handle the Guadalupes as well as southeast NM and much of
west TX with a Fire Danger Statement. Fire weather concerns will
diminish this evening as relative humidities increase above
critical values.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Thursday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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609
FXUS64 KMAF 251116
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hour is brief gusty winds
behind a strong cold front tonight. Otherwise...VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Light southerly winds this morning will
quickly increase from the west to 15-18kt sustained, gusting to
25-27kt by the afternoon. Winds will diminish for a couple of hours
this evening before a strong cold front arrives around 26/03Z at
CNM, HOB, INK and MAF then FST and PEQ by 26/04Z. Expect north winds
near 20-25kt sustained and gusts near 30-35kt. Occasionally higher
wind speeds will be possible. Low visibilities due to BLDU is
definitely possible but will hold off on mention in the TAF for
now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Current satellite shows an upper level trough over northern
Wyoming. This trough will move into the Central Plains today
increasing westerly winds and pushing drier air across most of the
area. This dry air and clear skies will send highs today well
above normal reaching the mid 80s for many locations.

The upper trough will move east tonight sending a cold front south
arriving in the Permian Basin around sunset. Winds behind the
front will shift from the northeast and become very windy for a
short period before quickly diminishing early Thursday morning.
Sustained wind speeds may exceed 30 mph briefly tonight but the
duration is not expected to be long enough to warrant the issuance
of an advisory at this time. Winds at Guadalupe Pass will become
strong and the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a warning.

Thursday will be around 20 degrees cooler and a very pleasant day
as winds continue to diminish. An upper level ridge over the
western U.S. will move east over the weekend and dampen, bringing
a return of westerly mid and upper level flow. This will cause
temperatures to warm back up above normal with Saturday and Sunday
providing good BBQ weather.

Models continue to show an upper level low approaching Texas and
New Mexico early next week. The GFS and ECMWF continue to handle
the location of this feature differently though the ECMWF seems to
be trending more towards the GFS solution of a southerly track
across southern California and along the U.S./Mexico border. The
Canadian GEM also agrees with this southerly track. The main
difference between these models is the strength of the low. The
GFS is strongest and thus shows better rain chances than the other
models. Will continue the slight chance PoPs during this time
period and will wait for better agreement before making any
significant PoP changes.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will increase from the west today as a surface low deepens
just NE of the CWA. In addition, above normal temps and very dry
conditions will result in afternoon minimum relative humidities
near 10-15 percent most areas. With 20 foot winds approaching or
exceeding critical thresholds across most locations, elevated to
near critical fire weather concerns can be expected. Greatest
concern will be across the Guadalupe Mountains, where low end Red
Flag conditions will be possible for 3-4 hours at the most.
Confidence is not high enough to go with a Red Flag Warning so
will handle the Guadalupes as well as southeast NM and much of
west TX with a Fire Danger Statement. Fire weather concerns will
diminish this evening as relative humidities increase above
critical values.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Thursday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

27

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388
FXUS64 KMAF 250507
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hour, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Light southerly winds overnight will
increase from the west to 15-18kt sustained and gusting to 25-30kt
during the afternoon. A strong cold front will arrive around 26/03Z
at CNM, HOB, INK and MAF then FST and PEQ just beyond this TAF
period. Behind the front, expect north winds near 20-25kt sustained
and gusts near 30-35kt. Low visibilities due to BLDU is definitely
possible but will hold off on mention in the TAF for now.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Westerly flow aloft will continue through tomorrow resulting in
continued much above normal temperatures. Dryline will surge east
from the eastern slopes of the mountains to the Concho Valley and
Big Country by late tomorrow afternoon. Behind the dryline breezy
westerly winds will develop in areas with very windy conditions
expected in the Guadalupe Mountains. Low level thermal ridging and
downslope flow will allow temperatures to climb to much above
normal Wednesday afternoon. Large upper level trough moving across
the mid section of the country will drop a cold front south into
the forecast area Wednesday night. Low level convergence along the
front with some forcing from the upper trough could spark isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the extreme eastern Permian Basin
in the deeper moisture. Strong surface pressure gradient behind
the front will produce very windy conditions with high winds
possible through Guadalupe Pass. Will issue a High Wind Watch for
that location Wednesday night through mid Thursday morning. In
addition a wind advisory may be needed for portions of the plains
of southeast New Mexico and or west Texas. Have also added patchy
blowing dust for areas mainly north of the Pecos River.

Dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop behind the
upper trough Thursday through the weekend. After a cool
Thursday high temperatures will climb to above normal again
by Friday as more surface lee troughing develops with downslope
flow and mostly clear skies expected.

A Pacific storm system looks in the offing early next week
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms expected
at this time next Monday and Tuesday. Above normal temperatures
are also expected to continue.

FIRE WEATHER...

Unseasonably warm temperatures expected again Wednesday will result
in minimum rh values of 15 percent or less across SE NM and most of
W TX.  Much of this area received beneficial rain the past week
lowering the fire danger... but not much fell across Eddy and
Culberson counties.  The wind will be out of the west tomorrow
and 20ft wind speeds are expected to be higher with some locations
reaching the 15 to 20 mph range.  This will result in elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions... especially for the
Guadalupe Mountains... Delaware Mountains... and surrounding plains.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

27

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118
FXUS64 KMAF 242320
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
WSW winds will remain aob 12KT tonight, but will increase on
Wednesday afternoon, gusting to 20-30KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Westerly flow aloft will continue through tomorrow resulting in
continued much above normal temperatures. Dryline will surge east
from the eastern slopes of the mountains to the Concho Valley and
Big Country by late tomorrow afternoon. Behind the dryline breezy
westerly winds will develop in areas with very windy conditions
expected in the Guadalupe Mountains. Low level thermal ridging and
downslope flow will allow temperatures to climb to much above
normal Wednesday afternoon. Large upper level trough moving across
the mid section of the country will drop a cold front south into
the forecast area Wednesday night. Low level convergence along the
front with some forcing from the upper trough could spark isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the extreme eastern Permian Basin
in the deeper moisture. Strong surface pressure gradient behind
the front will produce very windy conditions with high winds
possible through Guadalupe Pass. Will issue a High Wind Watch for
that location Wednesday night through mid Thursday morning. In
addition a wind advisory may be needed for portions of the plains
of southeast New Mexico and or west Texas. Have also added patchy
blowing dust for areas mainly north of the Pecos River.

Dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop behind the
upper trough Thursday through the weekend. After a cool
Thursday high temperatures will climb to above normal again
by Friday as more surface lee troughing develops with downslope
flow and mostly clear skies expected.

A Pacific storm system looks in the offing early next week
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms expected
at this time next Monday and Tuesday. Above normal temperatures
are also expected to continue.

FIRE WEATHER...

Unseasonably warm temperatures expected again Wednesday will result
in minimum rh values of 15 percent or less across SE NM and most of
W TX.  Much of this area received beneficial rain the past week
lowering the fire danger... but not much fell across Eddy and
Culberson counties.  The wind will be out of the west tomorrow
and 20ft wind speeds are expected to be higher with some locations
reaching the 15 to 20 mph range.  This will result in elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions... especially for the
Guadalupe Mountains... Delaware Mountains... and surrounding plains.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241728
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with mostly clear skies. W to NW wind this afternoon will come
around to the S/SW by this evening. A few TAF sites near a surface
trough may be a little gusty this afternoon.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Current upper air analysis shows a relatively broad jet stream
over the southern United States. This zonal flow will continue today
and tomorrow keeping temperatures above normal. The flow will
amplify late Wednesday with the development of a west coast
ridge/central U.S. trough couplet. This will send a cold front
through the area early Thursday bringing temperatures back down
below normal, even if only briefly. There may be an initial shot
of windy conditions immediately behind the front which could
approach advisory levels, but models are showing these winds will
quickly diminish and thus do not anticipate the need for an
advisory at this time. West winds ahead of the cold front
will push dry air across much of the area and cause the
development of a weak dryline in the far eastern Permian Basin.
The greatest convergence and moisture will be along and east of
the intersection of the dryline and cold front which is where the
highest rain chances were placed Wednesday night.

The upper ridge will broaden as it slowly moves east leaving west
Texas in northwesterly upper flow and a slow warming trend through
the weekend. Early next week could get interesting again, not so
much because of a weak front in the area on Monday, but mostly due
to another upper low approaching from the west. Both the ECMWF and
GFS show this feature moving into Arizona on Monday though the
trajectory of the ECMWF has it dropping southeast out of northern
California while the GFS has a more easterly movement from
southern California and northern Mexico. The GFS solution would be
wetter as it brings better lift across southern New Mexico and
West Texas so PoPs will largely depend on which model solution
proves correct. Currently there is too much uncertainty to go
higher than slight chance PoPs.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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006
FXUS64 KMAF 241102
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No aviation concerns for the next 24 hour, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Otherwise...light SW winds will briefly
veer to the NW this morning then quickly recover from the south by
this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Current upper air analysis shows a relatively broad jet stream
over the southern United States. This zonal flow will continue today
and tomorrow keeping temperatures above normal. The flow will
amplify late Wednesday with the development of a west coast
ridge/central U.S. trough couplet. This will send a cold front
through the area early Thursday bringing temperatures back down
below normal, even if only briefly. There may be an initial shot
of windy conditions immediately behind the front which could
approach advisory levels, but models are showing these winds will
quickly diminish and thus do not anticipate the need for an
advisory at this time. West winds ahead of the cold front
will push dry air across much of the area and cause the
development of a weak dryline in the far eastern Permian Basin.
The greatest convergence and moisture will be along and east of
the intersection of the dryline and cold front which is where the
highest rain chances were placed Wednesday night.

The upper ridge will broaden as it slowly moves east leaving west
Texas in northwesterly upper flow and a slow warming trend through
the weekend. Early next week could get interesting again, not so
much because of a weak front in the area on Monday, but mostly due
to another upper low approaching from the west. Both the ECMWF and
GFS show this feature moving into Arizona on Monday though the
trajectory of the ECMWF has it dropping southeast out of northern
California while the GFS has a more easterly movement from
southern California and northern Mexico. The GFS solution would be
wetter as it brings better lift across southern New Mexico and
West Texas so PoPs will largely depend on which model solution
proves correct. Currently there is too much uncertainty to go
higher than slight chance PoPs.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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366
FXUS64 KMAF 240435
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1135 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No aviation concerns for the next 24 hour, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Otherwise...light SW winds will briefly
veer to the NW Tuesday morning then return southerly by the evening.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 146 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Will have a flat ridge over the area the next several days bringing
mild wx to the region with mostly sunny days and clear nights
through midweek.  This will give way to a mid level trough swinging
down across the Rockies as an upper ridge builds across the West
Coast.

Unrestricted sunshine and warm temperatures aloft pushing surface
temps into the 80s this afternoon.  These unusually warm readings
expected again Tuesday and Wednesday... could see readings into the
90s along the Rio Grande.  Lows in the 40s and 50s.  A cold front
late Wednesday/early Thursday will bring much cooler air to the
region.  Behind the front expect highs in the 50s and 60s Thursday
with lows in the 30s and 40s that night.  Front looks to be
accompanied by a tight pressure gradient so expect a windy fropa.
Still a ways out but this will create the potential for a high wind
event at GDP.  By the weekend readings warm back to around
normal.

Not much in the way of rain chances this week... may have some
around the edges of the area Wednesday night as a shortwave trough
swings down across NM.  Otherwise it looks dry this week.

FIRE WEATHER...
A Fire Danger Statement was issued for Southeast New Mexico this
afternoon. Warm... dry and breezy conditions will continue across
SE NM on Tuesday and Wednesday and could result in a continuation
of near critical fire wx conditions. Minimum rh of 15 percent or
less will be possible across SE NM... the upper Trans Pecos... and
Western Permian Basin each day. Weak 20ft winds look to be the
limiting factor on Tuesday but these may be stronger on Wednesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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720
FXUS64 KMAF 232250
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
550 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 146 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Will have a flat ridge over the area the next several days bringing
mild wx to the region with mostly sunny days and clear nights
through midweek.  This will give way to a mid level trough swinging
down across the Rockies as an upper ridge builds across the West
Coast.

Unrestricted sunshine and warm temperatures aloft pushing surface
temps into the 80s this afternoon.  These unusually warm readings
expected again Tuesday and Wednesday... could see readings into the
90s along the Rio Grande.  Lows in the 40s and 50s.  A cold front
late Wednesday/early Thursday will bring much cooler air to the
region.  Behind the front expect highs in the 50s and 60s Thursday
with lows in the 30s and 40s that night.  Front looks to be
accompanied by a tight pressure gradient so expect a windy fropa.
Still a ways out but this will create the potential for a high wind
event at GDP.  By the weekend readings warm back to around
normal.

Not much in the way of rain chances this week... may have some
around the edges of the area Wednesday night as a shortwave trough
swings down across NM.  Otherwise it looks dry this week.

FIRE WEATHER...
A Fire Danger Statement was issued for Southeast New Mexico this
afternoon. Warm... dry and breezy conditions will continue across
SE NM on Tuesday and Wednesday and could result in a continuation
of near critical fire wx conditions. Minimum rh of 15 percent or
less will be possible across SE NM... the upper Trans Pecos... and
Western Permian Basin each day. Weak 20ft winds look to be the
limiting factor on Tuesday but these may be stronger on Wednesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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326
FXUS64 KMAF 231715
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1215 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals.
Southwest winds will generally increase to 10 to 20 mph and gusty
by mid afternoon. By sunset winds should generally diminish to
less than 10 mph with light winds continuing overnight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Westerly winds
will increase this afternoon to around 15 kts before decreasing
around sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Despite recent rainfall and a clear sky this morning, it appears low
level winds will provide enough mixing to prevent fog from
developing aggressively.  Therefore, have removed it from the
forecast.  Temperatures will warm well above normal today and stay
that way through Wednesday as a low amplitude ua ridge moves east of
the region, and is replaced by nearly zonal flow aloft.  A low level
thermal ridge, such as it is in early Spring, will remain over the
region and along with downslope winds result in readings 10 to 15
degrees above normal each afternoon.  We will approach record high
territory, but think we`ll stay below records by around 5 degrees or
so.

An ua trough will translate eastward over the U.S. Plains Wednesday,
and amplify over the eastern ConUS through late week.  A cold front
will push south through the forecast area Wednesday night as a
result.  There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms over the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos as the front passes
through Wednesday night, but this may be subject to change if the
mentioned ua trough amplifies further west.  For now, will go with
the more consolidated ua trough and drier forecast through the rest
of the week.

Temperatures will cool below normal Thursday behind the front, and
stay slightly below Friday.  However, readings will warm back above
normal next weekend as the region will be caught between an east
coast ua trough and west coast ua ridge.  Temperatures during this
time will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal while the forecast remains
dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase this week as the area dries out
from the recent wet pattern. Winds will increase from the west this
afternoon as a sfc trough develops over the Panhandles. In addition,
rh`s will drop to 10-15 percent. Near critical conditions will be
possible across the Guadalupe Mountains and SE NM Plains. Will issue
a Fire Danger Statement for now with an upgrade to RFW possible,
especially in the Guadalupe Mountains. We will see a bit of a break
Tuesday with weaker winds. By Wednesday, winds will increase once
again across the Guadalupe Mountains with rh`s dropping to near 15
percent during the afternoon. A cold front will arrive Wednesday
night bringing moisture back to the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 85  50  85  48  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              89  57  88  54  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                86  49  84  46  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  88  57  89  57  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           85  55  85  53  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  52  77  51  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   83  47  81  45  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   78  39  79  37  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  54  86  51  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  85  55  85  51  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    88  48  88  46  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/67

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202
FXUS64 KMAF 231108
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
608 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Westerly winds
will increase this afternoon to around 15 kts before decreasing
around sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Despite recent rainfall and a clear sky this morning, it appears low
level winds will provide enough mixing to prevent fog from
developing aggressively.  Therefore, have removed it from the
forecast.  Temperatures will warm well above normal today and stay
that way through Wednesday as a low amplitude ua ridge moves east of
the region, and is replaced by nearly zonal flow aloft.  A low level
thermal ridge, such as it is in early Spring, will remain over the
region and along with downslope winds result in readings 10 to 15
degrees above normal each afternoon.  We will approach record high
territory, but think we`ll stay below records by around 5 degrees or
so.

An ua trough will translate eastward over the U.S. Plains Wednesday,
and amplify over the eastern ConUS through late week.  A cold front
will push south through the forecast area Wednesday night as a
result.  There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms over the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos as the front passes
through Wednesday night, but this may be subject to change if the
mentioned ua trough amplifies further west.  For now, will go with
the more consolidated ua trough and drier forecast through the rest
of the week.

Temperatures will cool below normal Thursday behind the front, and
stay slightly below Friday.  However, readings will warm back above
normal next weekend as the region will be caught between an east
coast ua trough and west coast ua ridge.  Temperatures during this
time will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal while the forecast remains
dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase this week as the area dries out
from the recent wet pattern. Winds will increase from the west this
afternoon as a sfc trough develops over the Panhandles. In addition,
rh`s will drop to 10-15 percent. Near critical conditions will be
possible across the Guadalupe Mountains and SE NM Plains. Will issue
a Fire Danger Statement for now with an upgrade to RFW possible,
especially in the Guadalupe Mountains. We will see a bit of a break
Tuesday with weaker winds. By Wednesday, winds will increase once
again across the Guadalupe Mountains with rh`s dropping to near 15
percent during the afternoon. A cold front will arrive Wednesday
night bringing moisture back to the region.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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945
FXUS64 KMAF 230452
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1152 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Some light fog is
possible at the terminal around sunrise, but will quickly burn off
once the sun comes up. Winds will also increase to around 15 kts
from the southwest during the afternoon.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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632
FXUS64 KMAF 222156
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
456 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

All terminals should remain VFR next 24 hours unless fog develops
near sunrise. Abundant heating/insolation and a little wind today
have made good headway in beginning to dry out soils from
yesterday`s rains. Currently, favorable fog development looks to
be in the Pecos Rvr Valley, and KPEQ may see a few hours of light
development Monday morning, according to buffer soundings.
However, we`ll keep things VFR for now. Otherwise, winds will veer
to SW by Monday afternoon, and become gusty.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
As the upper low that brought rain to the area moves off to the
east... high pressure aloft will build into the region.  This will
provide warm and dry wx for the region the next few days.  The next
upper trough will swing across the Southern Rockies on Thursday
and into the area early Friday.

Sunny skies stretch across the area this afternoon as temperatures
climb rapidly into the 70s.  Temps will fall tonight into the 40s and
50s.  With wet ground from recent rain and clear skies overnight could
see patchy fog Monday morning mainly east and along the Pecos River
Valley.  The combination of an upper ridge and W/SW surface wind
will push temps up into the 80s Monday.  These warm readings will
continue Tuesday and Wednesday.  Guidance looks a little too warm
after rain so have gone slightly under.  A cold front moves through
late Wednesday so should be cooler Thursday... but conditions warm
quickly Friday through the weekend.  Fropa may be pretty windy...
will have to monitor possible high wind event through GDP.

Forecast looks dry through most of the week... long range models try
to skirt the area mid week with a few showers or storms but not
expecting much.  Will have to watch next trough to see if becomes a
rain producer or not.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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702
FXUS64 KMAF 221724
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies. Winds will be westerly this afternoon at 10 to 15 mph and
gusty. By sunset winds should diminish to less than 10 mph. There
is some chance that some patchy fog could form toward sunrise
Monday but confidence was not high enough at this time to mention.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
Low clouds have slowly moved east with fog developing on the edge
of the cloud deck. Low vsbys due to fog will continue until the
sun burns it off later this morning. A few terminals may lower to
a mile or less, but in general vsbys will be around 3-5 miles.
Westerly winds will kick in around 22/16Z with VFR conditions
returning this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The ua trough responsible for widespread rainfall is already east of
the region and will be replaced by a low amplitude ua ridge.
Needless to say, but the rain chances are done with for this
system.  Areas of fog have developed under a decreasing cloud cover
and weak surface pressure regime, and considering how moist the
ground is, will have to monitor for the issuance of a Dense Fog
Advisory.  Temperatures will begin to warm up today, but will be
tempered by evaporation of ground moisture.  As clear skies and a
light wind regime occurs again tonight, at least patchy fog will
form, especially over the Permian Basin where surface dewpoints will
be higher.  Even warmer temperatures are expected Monday as nearly
zonal flow aloft will result in westerly winds increasing and
spreading further eastward across the area.  There may still be
enough ground moisture to temper highs, but think this will become
less both Monday and Tuesday afternoon.  Therefore, have kept
forecast high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal in most
locations.

On Tuesday/Wednesday, an ua trough will amplify over the central
U.S. Plains and Midwest.  Height falls from this ua trough will back
low level winds and bring low level moisture westward into the
region.  A dryline will form on Tuesday and sharpen somewhat
Wednesday.  However, the mentioned ua trough will not be deep enough
to impart much lift to our area, and the dryline will mix east of
our area both Tuesday and Wednesday.  Therefore, will leave rain
chances out of the forecast.  Temperatures will stay above normal
Wednesday since the next cold front to affect the area won`t arrive
until Wednesday night.  Temperatures will drop a few degrees below
normal Thursday, while readings Friday will depend on how amplified
the next ua trough turns out.  For now, will go between the warmer
and cooler solutions, and keep the forecast mainly dry.  This also
appears to be feasible for the rest of the extended as a deep ua
trough will envelope the eastern ConUS while an ua ridge expands
over the western ConUS, leaving us high and dry in between.  There
is an outside chance a cutoff low could pinch off from the eastern
ConUS ua trough Thursday and loiter over the southwestern ConUS or
northern Mexico.  Will wait and see whether this feature
materializes before changing the forecast to accommodate any rain
chances in the extended.

CLIMATE...

With the good winter precipitation and the rain over the last
several days, this is one of the wettest starts to a year on record.
Let`s hope it keeps up!

Highest Precipitation Amounts through March 21st

Rank    Value (inches)  Year
  1         5.01        1939
  2         4.39        1932
  3         4.34        2015
  4         4.30        1949
  5         4.28        1970

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 47  82  50  81  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  84  54  83  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                45  85  48  81  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  53  85  56  85  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           52  85  54  83  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  76  51  74  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   45  82  47  78  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   37  78  40  76  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    49  83  51  82  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  48  82  52  82  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    45  85  47  82  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/67

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608
FXUS64 KMAF 221106
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
Low clouds have slowly moved east with fog developing on the edge
of the cloud deck. Low vsbys due to fog will continue until the
sun burns it off later this morning. A few terminals may lower to
a mile or less, but in general vsbys will be around 3-5 miles.
Westerly winds will kick in around 22/16Z with VFR conditions
returning this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The ua trough responsible for widespread rainfall is already east of
the region and will be replaced by a low amplitude ua ridge.
Needless to say, but the rain chances are done with for this
system.  Areas of fog have developed under a decreasing cloud cover
and weak surface pressure regime, and considering how moist the
ground is, will have to monitor for the issuance of a Dense Fog
Advisory.  Temperatures will begin to warm up today, but will be
tempered by evaporation of ground moisture.  As clear skies and a
light wind regime occurs again tonight, at least patchy fog will
form, especially over the Permian Basin where surface dewpoints will
be higher.  Even warmer temperatures are expected Monday as nearly
zonal flow aloft will result in westerly winds increasing and
spreading further eastward across the area.  There may still be
enough ground moisture to temper highs, but think this will become
less both Monday and Tuesday afternoon.  Therefore, have kept
forecast high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal in most
locations.

On Tuesday/Wednesday, an ua trough will amplify over the central
U.S. Plains and Midwest.  Height falls from this ua trough will back
low level winds and bring low level moisture westward into the
region.  A dryline will form on Tuesday and sharpen somewhat
Wednesday.  However, the mentioned ua trough will not be deep enough
to impart much lift to our area, and the dryline will mix east of
our area both Tuesday and Wednesday.  Therefore, will leave rain
chances out of the forecast.  Temperatures will stay above normal
Wednesday since the next cold front to affect the area won`t arrive
until Wednesday night.  Temperatures will drop a few degrees below
normal Thursday, while readings Friday will depend on how amplified
the next ua trough turns out.  For now, will go between the warmer
and cooler solutions, and keep the forecast mainly dry.  This also
appears to be feasible for the rest of the extended as a deep ua
trough will envelope the eastern ConUS while an ua ridge expands
over the western ConUS, leaving us high and dry in between.  There
is an outside chance a cutoff low could pinch off from the eastern
ConUS ua trough Thursday and loiter over the southwestern ConUS or
northern Mexico.  Will wait and see whether this feature
materializes before changing the forecast to accommodate any rain
chances in the extended.

CLIMATE...

With the good winter precipitation and the rain over the last
several days, this is one of the wettest starts to a year on record.
Let`s hope it keeps up!

Highest Precipitation Amounts through March 21st

Rank    Value (inches)  Year
  1         5.01        1939
  2         4.39        1932
  3         4.34        2015
  4         4.30        1949
  5         4.28        1970

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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