Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 111121

621 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2015

See 12Z aviation discussion below.


Some MVFR CIGs are being observed across the far eastern Permian
Basin but it is looking less likely they will reach the TAF sites
so VFR conditions are now expected to remain through the next 24
hours. Winds will be generally light with a few afternoon gusts.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2015/

West to southwest flow aloft will continue today and this should
strengthen the surface lee low/trough across the west Texas/eastern
New Mexico border. A weak mid level shortwave trough is forecast
by model consensus to move over the surface trough resulting in a
slight chance to a chance of thunderstorms across mainly west Texas.
Not expecting a severe weather outbreak but a few of the storms
will be strong possibly severe especially in the lower Trans Pecos
region and Big Bend given a cape forecast of near 1000 j/kg and 0
to 6 kilometer shear values in the 30 to 40 knot range. The
activity should diminish early this evening with loss of heating,
but will keep a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms going
overnight across mainly west Texas due to height falls associated
with the approach of a potent southern stream system from Baja.

By Sunday through Monday night the Baja system will slowly approach
and track over the forecast area. This will result in an increase
chance of thunderstorms area wide. In addition precipitation
chances will be enhanced during the day Monday, especially across
southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin due to a cold
front interacting with the upper low.

The upper level storm system is forecast to weaken and exit across
north Texas Tuesday with only residual isolated showers and thunderstorms
possible across portions of southeast New Mexico and west Texas.
Behind the cold front high temperatures will drop to below normal
values Monday and Tuesday.

Beyond Tuesday a surface trough/dry line is forecast to become
established again in westerly flow aloft by Wednesday across the
central and or eastern Permian Basin. Temperatures should warm
again to above normal values with the formation of the surface
trough/dry line. A few thunderstorms can not be ruled out along
the dry line Wednesday afternoon but confidence in placement of
the dry line is low this far out, so left the forecast dry for

By next Wednesday night a cold front is forecast to plunge south
through the forecast area as an upper level storm system moves
across the central plains. Confidence was high enough to mention a
slight chance of thunderstorms across the eastern Permian Basin
and lower Trans Pecos with this front.

Cooler (below normal) temperatures and dry weather is expected
behind the cold front next Thursday and Friday with near normal
temperatures returning next Saturday.






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