Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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777
FXUS64 KMAF 011652
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1152 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions under mostly clear skies are expected the next 24
hours. South to southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph this afternoon
will become southeast at 10 to 20 mph and gusty tonight at
the west Texas terminals. Winds at the southeastern New Mexico
terminals will be lighter and more variable overnight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light south winds through the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A broad upper trough moving across the northern plains will have
little effect on a strong high pressure ridge over the region.  This
ridge extends from the Pacific to the Atlantic and is responsible
for the current hot wx.  However by midweek the next upper trough
will dig down the West Coast and help the upper ridge to slide
east.  This will result in cooling temperatures for W TX and SE NM.

The first day of September will be unusually hot.  Normal high
temperatures for the Permian Basin for this time of year have fallen
to the lower 90s... however expect most of the region to be at or
above 100 degrees today.  Should reach or exceed 105 degrees for the
Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.  This heat is due to a thermal ridge
extending along the TX/NM line southward to the Rio Grande.  Eta
shows 850 temps will be about the same today as yesterday so expect
near persistence temps.  Went at or above yesterdays highs for today
due to residual heat as overnight temps slow to cool off.  Should be
a couple degrees cooler Tuesday as thermal axis farther west.
Latest MEX guidance has come in cooler Wed through Fri than previous
runs.  Have trended temps down in the extended.

Strong subsidence Sunday resulted in few clouds over the plains and
only a few light showers over northern Brewster county.  Models
continue to develop a few afternoon storms over the Davis mtns...
Marfa Plateau... and northern Big Bend so will leave the isolated
pops in today and Tuesday.  Rest of the forecast is dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  98  71  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             100  74  98  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               105  70 102  70  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                 104  77 101  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          102  74  99  73  /   0  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          97  71  95  69  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                  100  69  98  68  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   94  59  92  58  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  98  73  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                 100  75  99  73  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                   105  74 103  73  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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