Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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513
FXUS64 KMAF 071126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
Main aviation concerns for the next 24 hours is
low cigs affecting terminals this morning and thunderstorm activity
this afternoon. A large area of showers and thunderstorms continue
to move east of the terminals this morning. Still have a few showers
affecting PEQ and FST however this activity will move east of the
sites over the next few hours. The cold front has sagged a little
further south, resulting in northerly winds at all but FST.
According to model guidance, this front will stall near MAF and FST
this afternoon and will likely serve as the main focus for showers
and thunderstorms later today. Highest confidence for TSRA is at MAF
and FST and decided to include mention late this afternoon through
late tonight. Heavy rainfall will be the main threat and may result
in brief periods of low visibility. Low cigs have been difficult to
track and forecast overnight due to the thunderstorm activity. For
now, will continue to carry MVFR at CNM and IFR at HOB through at
least late morning and continue to monitor trends for amendments.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar is showing an area of moderate to heavy rain in the
northeastern Permian Basin and western low rolling plains.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches have been observed on Texas
Tech mesonet sites in Borden and Scurry Counties which is already
above flash flood guidance. This rain is focused along a weak
cold front that is bisecting the Permian Basin from NE-SW and
where the most widespread rainfall will occur today will depend
on the position of this feature. Additional showers are being
supported by a very slow moving upper level trough moving across
west Texas. Precipitable water values are well above normal so
storms will be proficient rain producers and thus have issued a
Flash Flood Watch for the flooding threat. The greatest flood
potential will be in the eastern portion of the watch area but
with PWATs approaching 2 inches any storm could produce flash
flooding so decided to make the watch large enough to include most
of the CWA except those areas farthest from the upper trough.

Most of the rain is expected today and tomorrow, then will
diminish and shift to the Guadalupe Mountains later this week and
end altogether by the weekend as an upper level high retrogrades
from the southeastern U.S. over into the Central Plains. Well
below normal temperatures today will climb through the next seven
days as subsidence from the upper high increases. GFS and ECMWF
extended MOS guidance are showing highs approaching 100 degrees
early next week but this seems a bit too high. In drought years
deep easterly flow on the southern periphery of the high could
advect hot and dry air in from central Texas but this year there
has been plenty of moisture available so highs in this regime
should hold to the mid 90s.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

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