Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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414
FXUS64 KMAF 052045
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough moving thru the Panhandles at 18Z,
to be followed by a highly-amplified trough currently over the
western CONUS, which will dominate the weather in West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico into next week.  At the sfc, obs show the cold
front associated w/the aforementioned trough due to fropa KMAF in the
next hours or so, halting afternoon temps in the mid to upper 50s
most locations.  Past model performance, temp progs, and forecast
soundings suggest post-frontal CAA will keep temps below-normal over
the next few days, reinforced by another cold front Sunday.  Thus,
w/little in the way of cloud cover expected over the next few days,
and little wind save for the cold fronts, we`ve opted to generally
stick to the cooler side of guidance in the short term, w/temps
finally climbing to abv-normal by Tuesday afternoon as the west
coast ridge begins encroaching further inland.  Temps increase even
more during the latter half of the week, peaking on Thursday before
a 3rd cold front moves in late Thursday afternoon, taking temps down
a notch of Friday.

Unfortunately, this pattern portends no rain for the region into the
extended.  However, the upshot is that the ridge will result in
fairly benign wind fields, alleviating any critical fire wx concerns
for the moment.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     29  55  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       21  59  25  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         29  61  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  30  59  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 27  51  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          21  55  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          13  55  19  61 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           28  55  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         29  55  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           24  60  24  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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