Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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902
FXUS64 KMAF 091726
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1126 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
become elevated with some gusts out of the south to southwest this
afternoon before weakening and becoming more southerly this
evening. Winds will then shift back toward the southwest to west
by Tuesday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday will be unseasonably warm as strengthening
westerly flow aloft modulates the development of the lee side trof
and attendant low level thermal ridge. Mostly, the said lee trof
will remain in westward position, but a better downslope wind
component will promote adiabatic mixing of low levels and
momentum transport of stronger winds aloft Tue/Wed. Per the westerly
mid level component there will be a better set-up for a mtn wave
across the GDP Mtns Tue/Wed, but winds could increase as soon as
late Mon night when 40kt winds near 725mb level. MOS guidance is
slow to increase winds in the mtns. For now we will not issue a
high watch as onset timing and duration is still an issue. Today
the warmest temps will be across SE NM/Upper Trans Pecos/wrn PB,
then Tue/Wed extending farther east. High temps will be mostly
15-25 degrees above normal today-Wed and 10-15 degrees above on
Thur. Some record high temps will probably be broken. Attention
then turns to the next upper low that will move to INVOF of SW AZ
by Fri PM and cold air will be moving south in advance of the low.
Models are still trying to settle on a common soln. There is
decent agreement with 5h low timing/location, but on the latest
00Z run GFS has brought the colder farther south much earlier. In
general temps sfc-85h are warmer than model data 24hrs ago, making
precip type uncertain for Sat AM. The 85h temps are warm and so
depending on magnitude of cold shallow air a possible precip type
is FZRA? Another complication is that low level moisture will be
in an abundance and there will not be much room for wet bulb
cooling? Best window for precip will Sat AM-Sun AM and in general
the highest PoPs will be e/n of the Pecos River.

FIRE WEATHER...
Positive temp anomalys over these next few days will be accompanied
by decreasing trends in min RHs as well. Mon-Tue the driest air will
reside from the SE NM Plains-Trans Pecos-W PB. By Wed dry air will
have chance to push out farther east with the stronger westerly
winds (25kts at 5kft). MSLP gradient is mostly lacking thus
limiting wind across the low elevations. Winds will be stronger in
the mtns, but RHs will be a little higher. A such these days will
be good candidates for Fire Danger Statements (including today for
SE NM and most of the Trans Pecos) while watching for lower RHs
in the mtns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  46  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       82  47  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         66  44  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  81  53  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 72  48  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          78  43  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          74  39  76  36 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           73  46  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         73  47  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           77  44  83  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/