Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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209
FXUS64 KMAF 201114
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
614 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc analysis shows the cold front extending from about KGDP-KOZA,
colliding w/a wide swath of convection movg NE. IFR/LIFR
cigs/visibilities will not improve much in the way of this
convection, and may deteriorate in heavier downpours over the next
few hours. Conditions may improve to few hrs of MVFR this
afternoon/evening, but MVFR to LIFR conditions will redevelop
toward the end of the forecast period as the upper trough begins
movg east.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

..Confidence in widespread heavy rain and flooding has increased as
we head into tonight and Saturday...

A strong cold front currently along the I-10 corridor continues to
plow south across the region. Temperatures were in the 60`s ahead of
the front cooling to the 40`s behind it. Showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop across the area in response to a shortwave seen
well in WV imagery. Most of this activity will begin to weaken later
this morning as the wave exits the region.

The well advertised upper through to our west has begun to move east
with a large plume of Pacific moisture streaming north well ahead
of it. Disturbances in this flow will likely lead to several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms before the trough passes by
Saturday night. The focus for precipitation today will be mainly
along and south of I-20 closer to where the cold front and best
moisture is. Some heavy rain and localized flooding is possible
within stronger storms mainly in the Lower Trans Pecos.

The upper trough will finally begin to lift across the region
tonight and Saturday. Precipitation chances increase significantly
as stronger lift arrives and PWAT values near record highs for this
time of year (1.25 inches). To add to this, the area will also be in
the left exit region of a 100 kt upper level jet streak most of the
day Saturday. Given all the above, heavy rainfall and flooding is a
good bet for at least the southern half of the area. Given an
already saturated ground with recent rains and rain likely falling
most of the day today, will issue a Flash Flood Watch to include the
Presidio Valley, Big Bend, and Lower Trans Pecos. The watch will
focus on tonight and Saturday when the heaviest rainfall is
expected. It is possible that later shifts will need to expand the
watch north.

Have gone with coolest guidance today and Saturday given thick
clouds and precipitation. A drying and warming trend is expected
Sunday with the passage of the upper trough. Temperatures peak in
the 80s by the middle of next week before another strong cold
front arrives late in the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau...Pecos...Presidio Valley...
     Terrell.


&&

$$

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