Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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684
FXUS64 KMAF 291821
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
121 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A weak cold front located roughly along an Aspermont TX/Snyder TX/Andrews
TX/Artesia NM line will translate south during the afternoon hours,
eventually reaching the mountains by early evening.  Significant pressure
rises (around 1.5 mb/hr) over the OK and TX panhandles has created a
respectable isallobaric gradient. In spite of strong insolation
limiting already weak low level cold air advection, isallobaric
flow along with deep layer mixing will promote gusty north to
northwest winds behind the front. Localized areas of blowing dust
sourced off plowed South Plains cotton fields is likely. The
presence of wave clouds over the southern Sangre de Christo and
Sandia mountain ranges as well as forecast low to mid level static
stability suggests wind gusts near 30 mph are possible along the
Pecos River valley of southeastern New Mexico.

Latest mesoscale model runs suggest the area of strongest low
level winds will shift southeast, in concert with the southeastern
migration of the surface pressure rises. As a result, there looks
to be a short window where gusty winds will impact the northern
Permian Basin before the PBL decouples around sunset. Winds will
veer overnight and become southeasterly by mid morning. Increasing
upper moisture tapped from the subtropical eastern Pacific will
result in thickening cirriform clouds overnight, with most areas
becoming mostly cloudy around sunrise. Otherwise, sig wx nil.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across area terminals through 30/18Z.
Gusty north to northwest winds are expected this afternoon, with
wind gusts AOA 20 kts at KHOB, KMAF, KCNM, and KINK. Additionally,
moderate turbulence above FL120 is expected just east of the
Guadalupe Mountains. Winds will slack off around sunset and veer
during the overnight hours, becoming southeastery by mid morning
Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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