Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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245
FXUS64 KMAF 160220
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
820 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014

.UPDATE...

Temperatures are falling quickly over northern Lea Co and the
Marfa Plateau and are already near their forecasted lows. Have
updated to lower overnight temps a few degrees at these locations.
Also increased the cloud cover over the area as cirrus spreads
across the area from the west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR and light winds through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the upper MS valley,
leaving near-zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico in its wake.  This has resulted in CAVU conditions over the
region, w/a very dry AMS in place, and afternoon temps climbing
above-normal.  A sfc ridge is forecast to slide down the Front Range
overnight, veering sfc flow and backdooring a weak cold front into
the area.  Lows overnight will be tricky, as models keep up a sfc
pressure gradient throughout the night as fropa occurs.  Colder
temps than last night are reasonable, but not as cold as the MET
numbers, which would be more realistic absent a
gradient.

Still, CAA behind the front should be sufficient to push temps
Tuesday afternoon blo normal, w/a warmup to temps similar to today`s
by Thursday afternoon as SW flow aloft develops in response to the
next incoming trough.  Models landfall that feature on the west
coast by 06Z Wednesday, and advance it along the US/Mexico brder to
NM by 06Z Friday.  Moisture return by this time is rather anemic,
w/40+ dewpoints only into the Lwr Trans Pecos, but this looks to be
our next shot at convection ahead of the trough, quickly tapering
off to the east Friday.  A brief lull ensures before a secondary,
depper trough arrives Sunday night/Monday, for another round of
convection.  Models are not in real good agreement on the strength
or timing of the trough (nor are they for the first one, for that
matter), but all are warm enough at this point, being Pac systems,
to rule out winter precip.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 33  54  39  56  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              37  57  43  59  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                34  59  35  66  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  42  61  46  55  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           38  60  41  63  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          36  51  42  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   31  54  37  58  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   28  61  32  60  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    33  56  41  59  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  35  59  41  62  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    33  62  41  65  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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