Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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963
FXUS64 KMAF 300224
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
924 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated forecast to cancel the Red Flag Warning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Observations across the area are no longer at red flag criteria so
the Red Flag Warning has been cancelled. With very few exceptions,
red flag conditions are not expected for the rest of the night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

As an upper low across NM is lifting newd into SE Colorado with the
assocd Pacific front having moved e of the area leaving very windy
and dry conditions in its wake. NPW remains in effect with no
changes from previous issuance. Winds will subside pretty quickly
early this evening with a loose MSLP gradient overnight. A cooler
start is expected Sat AM, but still warming to around or just
below normal. Meanwhile a cold front will be dropping south
through the plains early Sun AM arriving into nrn CWFA around 12Z
Sun as another upper low to the west quickly fills and lifts thru
nrn NM. This will set-up an overrunning regime in the lower levels
resulting in increased clouds and light precip Sun AM, mostly
north of I-20 where temps may actually slowly fall thru the day as
NE winds increase. By late Sun night/early Mon AM a mid level
speed max atop the low level overrunning will be sufficient for
precip to develop. Most precip will likely be stratiform, but will
mention possibility of an isold embedded storms per lapse rates.
Light precip will attempt to develop wwd into Mon AM, but not
expected to make it thru the mtns. High temps Mon AM will be well
below normal under cloudy skies. Temps will still be well below
normal Tue, even s/w of the Pecos River. Mid level flow amplifies
Wed/Thur with ridging accompanied by a noticeable warm-up Wed-
Fri.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire wx conditions across the wrn half of the CWFA will
subside this evening probably before the scheduled expiration of
03Z. For the next few hrs min RHS around 10% and 20ft west winds
of 20-30 mph and gusty are expected. We have opted to cancel the
Fire Weather Watch for Saturday as winds in the 5kft-10kft layer
are not indicative of widespread concerns, despite min RHs near 10
pct and warmer temps than today. A pattern change on Sun/Mon will
bring much cooler conditions with higher RHs to the mtns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  81  52  66 /  10   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       49  82  49  62 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         60  92  63  85 /  10   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  55  87  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 46  76  46  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  78  45  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          39  78  39  76 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  84  54  70 /  10   0  10  40
Odessa                         53  84  53  70 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  88  54  70 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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