Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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204
FXUS64 KMAF 271657
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1157 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 27/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

West Texas and southeastern New Mexico will remain under the
influence of weak upper level disturbances. When combined with
daytime heating and an anomalously moist airmass, scattered
thunderstorms are expected. Outside of the mountains, it`s hard
to tell right now where the best chances for development will be.
As such, we`ve not added a TEMPO group at any terminal this
afternoon and will amend once the picture becomes clearer. Right
now will have to say that the northeastern Permian Basin and
southeastern New Mexico will have the best chances for thunder
this afternoon. Otherwise expect scattered 050-060 this afternoon
with light southeasterly winds. Away from thunderstorms, VFR
conditions are expected through 28/12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 635 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Light southeast winds and VFR conditions expected through the
period. There will be scattered TS developing 18-00Z which could
affect some TAF sites but coverage will be too sparse to mention
in the TAFs at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
West TX and SE NM will remain under fairly weak NE flow aloft with
an upper ridge centered to the NW and an inverted trough to the
east. Much like Tuesday, will likely have several outflow boundaries
lingering across the area this afternoon (thanks to previous day
convection) and may serve as a focus for thunderstorm development
with daytime heating. In addition, easterly upslope winds at the
surface should aid in generating storms near the higher terrain
regions. Pinpointing any given thunderstorm location is too
difficult at this time so will continue to mention isolated to
scattered storms possible anywhere across the area today. Once
again, the main threats with any storm will be gusty winds and
frequent lightning however an isolated severe wind gust (58+ mph)
will be possible. High temperatures near or slightly above normal
today with afternoon readings expected to be in the mid to upper 90s
most locations.

Thursday will be much like today however thunderstorm chances are
slightly lower and look to be confined to maybe the higher terrain
regions. Rain chances decrease Friday and remain nil for most
locations through the weekend as weak upper ridging builds east back
over the region although we could still see a few storms in the
mountains. Otherwise, temperatures will be a bit warmer during this
time with highs in the upper 90s to near or above 100 through the
weekend and beginning of next work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  73  95  74 /  20  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       96  73  96  72 /  30  20  20  10
Dryden                         96  75  96  77 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  95  72  94  74 /  20  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 87  69  87  68 /  40  20  20  10
Hobbs                          93  69  93  69 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          89  65  88  65 /  30  20  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           97  73  96  74 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         96  74  95  75 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                           97  74  97  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/12/70

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