Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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347
FXUS64 KMAF 221750
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorm potential is the main concern this afternoon/evening.
Currently, high-res guidance is differing on the location of
convective initiation, though storms are possible at INK and FST,
with the best chance at MAF. Main threats with storms will be
large hail, gusty winds, and visibility reductions in heavy rain.
Given uncertainties in exact timing/location, have not included
mention in TAFs at this time. Storms will move east late this
evening, with low ceilings likely returning to MAF after 23/09Z,
improving by mid-morning Monday. Windy conditions will continue,
with W/SW winds west of the dryline, and S/SE winds east of the
dryline.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low over the NW part of the country this morning will
continue to lift NE but additional lobes will rotate down behind it.
Upper ridge over the area will shift east as the trough grows across
the Western US.  This will put the region into SW flow aloft and
allow disturbances to track across the area.  It will take most of
the week for this secondary part of the trough to swing through and
by the time it does another upper low moves onto the NW coast.

Have very good low level moisture in place this morning with dewpts
in the low to mid 60s and even into the 70s in Terrell.  Low clouds
spreading NW.  Did not have that many storms around yesterday but
some of them did produce large hail... with some storms continuing
overnight.  May see a repeat of those today as a slight risk in
effect today for eastern half of the area as storms are expected to
develop along a dryline again today.  Mention of severe storms
already in the zones/grids so will keep that and will continue to
highlight large hail and damaging wind in the HWO.  Storm chances
continue for the east Monday with pops decreasing on Tuesday.  Some
low pops continue through the extended mainly for the east.

Temperatures have been unseasonably warm and running above
guidance... will go over guidance again today as much of the area
should climb into the 90s.  The rest of the week looks warm with 90s
for most of the region each day.  Overnight lows will remain
elevated.

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and breezy conditions expected across western portions of the
region today as a dryline pushes east through the afternoon. Minimum
relative humidity will quickly drop below 15 percent across SE NM
south through the Big Bend. Critical fire weather conditions are
expected to develop across the Guadalupe Mountains where wind speeds
will be greater than 20 mph. Will go ahead and upgrade the Fire
Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains for
this afternoon and early evening. The Guadalupe Mountains will
likely see a repeat event on Monday and a Fire Weather Watch is now
in effect for this area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  93  70  92 /  40  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       61  94  59  93 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         72  91  71  94 /  30  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  67  93  65  95 /  20  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 60  86  58  83 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          60  89  59  91 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                          51  88  49  89 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           69  94  68  95 /  30  20  20  10
Odessa                         69  93  68  95 /  30  10  20  10
Wink                           66  96  65  97 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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