Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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119
FXUS64 KMAF 250843
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
343 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Not much change from the previous forecast with hot and dry
conditions expected through the weekend for most areas, as we remain
under the influence of the persistent upper ridge. Above normal
temperatures continue for the next several days as the 850mb ridge
strengthens just west of the CWA. MOS was too cool once again
yesterday so will continue to forecast temps a degree or two warmer
than guidance. In general, afternoon highs will range from the upper
90s to at or just above 100. The exceptions being the higher terrain
where slightly cooler temperatures (upper 80s-low 90s) can be
expected and south along the Rio Grande River Valley, where temps as
high as 105-106 will be possible. With such warm overnight
lows expected along the Rio Grande Valley through the
weekend, went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for these locations
in Brewster and Terrell counties. Saw a few thunderstorms down south
near the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions yesterday
afternoon/evening but for today, think any activity will remain to
the south of the FA.

The upper ridge will begin to shift back west Sunday/Monday as an
strong upper low digs into the Great Lakes region. As a result,
850mb temps will begin to cool across the region and afternoon highs
will decrease to more normal values through the beginning of next
week. The previously mentioned ua low will send a cold front south,
reaching northeast zones Monday or Tuesday. Model guidance keeps
greatest precip chances to the northeast of the CWA however
convection along the front could push it further south into the
area. For now, will keep inherited mention of thunderstorm chances
across northern zones Monday night and Tuesday. Any lingering
boundaries (whether it be the front or outflow boundaries from
Tuesday convection) could also generate thunderstorms across
northern portions into Wednesday. Another cold front could continue
rain chances and cool temperatures further later in the week but
won`t get too excited just yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  72 100  73  /  10   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX             102  74 102  74  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               101  70 102  72  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 103  77 103  78  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           99  73  99  73  /  10   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  68  92  69  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   98  69  98  69  /  10   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   89  59  91  63  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   100  74 100  73  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  99  75  99  74  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                   103  75 103  75  /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

44/27

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