Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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350
FXUS64 KMAF 230454
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1154 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Enough
moisture is around to possibly see some lower cigs but do not have
enough confidence to include at this time. After several days of
rain across the area, much less coverage is expected Tuesday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge stretches over the region with the remains of T.S.
Odile continuing to rotate around the area.  This will result in
potential for more heavy rain for Southeast New Mexico and parts of
West Texas tonight... however that looks to be ending.  An upper
trough will move ashore the west coast Wednesday/Thursday and push
to the Great Basin by Saturday. This will help to weaken the
ridge.

Heavy rain continues to fall this afternoon over South Central and
Southeast New Mexico... and from west of ELP to Andrews.  The rain
is tropical in nature producing heavier rain than would be expected.
Some of the heaviest rain today has been around the Guadalupe Mtns
National Park... since 12z rainfall totals included Bat Draw
0.99... Mckittrick Canyon 1.95... Pinery 2.45... The Bowl at 4.69
inches.

Still dealing with ongoing flooding across Eddy county and along the
Pecos River between Mentone and Pecos.  Surface flow will remain out
of SE to S which will keep low level moisture high.  Current dewpts
range from around 60 in the east to 72 at CNM.  the MAF 12z sounding
still have a PW of 1.7 inches which is down from 1.9 inches Sunday
morning.  Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible tonight.
Have trimmed some of the eastern counties from the Flash Flood Watch
as they have not received as much rain lately... but extended the
watch out through tonight for Southeast New Mexico... the Upper
Trans Pecos... and Van Horn/Hwy 54 corridor.

In the short term temperatures will be increasing as more sunshine
can be expected.  In the long term temperatures should remain near
or below normal in the 80s.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 AM MDT Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

29

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