Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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793
FXUS64 KMAF 261116
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concerns for the next 24 hours is the potential
for low clouds early this morning and thunderstorms at different
periods throughout the day today. Currently have persistent SE
winds across most locations with some weak showers and
thunderstorms SW of FST near the Davis Mountains. Looking at
current satellite data, it looks like the low clouds are moving NW
toward FST and MAF but still difficult to see due to extensive
mid/high level cloud shield across the area. Don`t think they`ll
reach FST but will affect MAF shortly. Will continue to monitor
trends and amend if needed. Thunderstorm chances will increase
during the day however not exactly clear on when and where this
activity will develop but think best chances for later this
morning or early afternoon will be at MAF. Will keep mention out
of the TAFs for now and make adjustments later if needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge centered over the Arklatx this morning will shift
west becoming centered over the 4 corners region Monday and remain
over the west the rest of the week. An upper low wandering up
from Mexico today and across the region will result in increased
rain chances today into Monday. In the extended temperatures will
increase and precip chances will decrease.

Presidio and Rio Grande Village continue to be the hot locations
with 101 and 106 degrees on Saturday.  It should be noticeably
cooler today as 850mb temps cool and increased cloud cover limits
insulation. Stayed to the warm side of guidance... if it turns
out a little cooler then it will be pleasant. Temperatures climb
to above normal by late in the week.

This morning Have some storms moving up from Mexico across Del Rio
with some showers streaming across the northern edge of the CWA.
SE/upslope flow will help keep lower levels moist and help storms
develop over the higher elevations.  Best chance of rain for the
plains will be with the upper low.  Guidance pops have really come
up as models bring the low up into the Permian Basin... have
increased pops today through Monday.  Locally heavy rain will be the
main concern with these storms as MAF 00z sounding had PW of 1.2
inches with model soundings pushing it over 1.6 inches tonight.
By Monday the best precip chances should be over the higher
elevations with only a slight chance for the plains with precip only
skirting the area Monday night.  Only random low probability of
storms the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  69  92  69 /  30  30  10  10
Carlsbad                       93  70  92  69 /  30  40  30  10
Dryden                         96  75  92  74 /  30  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  92  71  92  70 /  30  30  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 85  65  83  64 /  30  40  30  10
Hobbs                          89  67  90  66 /  30  40  30  10
Marfa                          86  62  85  61 /  40  30  40  10
Midland Intl Airport           91  70  93  70 /  30  40  10   0
Odessa                         93  71  93  71 /  30  40  20   0
Wink                           94  71  94  70 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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