Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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829
FXUS64 KMAF 240507
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours at all
southeast New Mexico and West Texas TAF sites.  Thunderstorms may
form this afternoon, but should stay south of said TAF sites.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

As of 2:15 PM CDT Wednesday...Skies are partly cloudy across the
CWA. A strong ridge is centered over southern Colorado with drier
air filtering into the CWA...as dew pts are lower than yesterday.

The ridge will be the dominant feature in the CWA`s weather for
the remainder of the week...and through the weekend. The ridge
will sag south through the weekend as a series of systems move
across the northern tier of states. This will enable the thermal
ridge to edge further east Friday and Saturday. Temps will be
above normal on Thursday...but it will get even hotter Friday and
Saturday with widespread 100+ temps. Along the Rio Grande River
Valley and the Trans Pecos temps could be 105+. Dew pts will be
lower so overnight lows could drop below 75. However...it is
possible that a heat advisory could be needed for the Rio Grande
River Valley and the Trans Pecos Friday and Saturday.

The ridge will begin to retrograde west Sunday and into early next
week. The thermal ridge will be further west as well...so temps
will not be as hot...but will be near or a few degrees above
normal. The flow will become north or northwest early next
week...with the GFS bringing a front to the CWA early next week
whereas the ECMWF is slower. With the model differences have kept
the forecast dry through the extended.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
253
FXUS64 KMAF 232313
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
546 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will
mostly be out of the east to southeast with some gusts possible
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Wednesday...Skies are partly
cloudy across the CWA. A strong ridge is centered over southern
Colorado with drier air filtering into the CWA...as dew pts are
lower than yesterday.

The ridge will be the dominant feature in the CWA`s weather for
the remainder of the week...and through the weekend. The ridge
will sag south through the weekend as a series of systems move
across the northern tier of states. This will enable the thermal
ridge to edge further east Friday and Saturday. Temps will be
above normal on Thursday...but it will get even hotter Friday and
Saturday with widespread 100+ temps. Along the Rio Grande River
Valley and the Trans Pecos temps could be 105+. Dew pts will be
lower so overnight lows could drop below 75. However...it is
possible that a heat advisory could be needed for the Rio Grande
River Valley and the Trans Pecos Friday and Saturday.

The ridge will begin to retrograde west Sunday and into early next
week. The thermal ridge will be further west as well...so temps
will not be as hot...but will be near or a few degrees above
normal. The flow will become north or northwest early next
week...with the GFS bringing a front to the CWA early next week
whereas the ECMWF is slower. With the model differences have kept
the forecast dry through the extended.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
118
FXUS64 KMAF 231913
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
213 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Wednesday...Skies are partly
cloudy across the CWA. A strong ridge is centered over southern
Colorado with drier air filtering into the CWA...as dew pts are
lower than yesterday.

The ridge will be the dominant feature in the CWA`s weather for
the remainder of the week...and through the weekend. The ridge
will sag south through the weekend as a series of systems move
across the northern tier of states. This will enable the thermal
ridge to edge further east Friday and Saturday. Temps will be
above normal on Thursday...but it will get even hotter Friday and
Saturday with widespread 100+ temps. Along the Rio Grande River
Valley and the Trans Pecos temps could be 105+. Dew pts will be
lower so overnight lows could drop below 75. However...it is
possible that a heat advisory could be needed for the Rio Grande
River Valley and the Trans Pecos Friday and Saturday.

The ridge will begin to retrograde west Sunday and into early next
week. The thermal ridge will be further west as well...so temps
will not be as hot...but will be near or a few degrees above
normal. The flow will become north or northwest early next
week...with the GFS bringing a front to the CWA early next week
whereas the ECMWF is slower. With the model differences have kept
the forecast dry through the extended.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 98  72  98  72  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX             102  75 102  75  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM               101  72  99  72  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  78 103  77  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73  97  73  /  10   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          89  67  89  68  /  10  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   97  69  96  69  /  10   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   89  62  89  61  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  72  99  74  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  98  73  97  75  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                   100  74 101  74  /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/33
516
FXUS64 KMAF 231714
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies. Winds will generally be east to southeast at 5 to 10 mph
through the period, with some gusts this afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across southeast New Mexico and West
Texas today and tonight while mid and high clouds decrease.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

A broad upper ridge continues to spin over much of the southwest
CONUS, as seen on WV satellite this morning. This ridge will remain
the dominate weather feature during this forecast package, keeping
conditions generally hot and dry through the weekend.

The hot temperatures continue today under the influence of the upper
ridge with highs just above normal most areas. Have extended the
current Heat Advisory through 15Z just to get through the warm
morning lows but high temperatures do not look to meet advisory
criteria today. Much of the same expected Thursday, if not a degree
or two warmer. The center of the upper ridge will shift slightly
southward Friday and the 850mb thermal ridge looks to intensify just
west of the CWA. By Saturday, afternoon high temperatures will range
from 99-103 most areas with locations along the Pecos and Rio Grande
River Valleys possibly reaching 106, which is well above normal
readings. The airmass will be relatively dry so heat index values
will be close to the ambient temperatures, which will be at or just
above Heat Advisory criteria so one may be needed Friday and
Saturday to highlight river valley areas. With the upper ridge
centered just north of the region through the weekend, generally
ENE flow aloft will hold mid level moisture to the west and a dry
forecast is expected through the beginning of next week.

The upper ridge will retrograde back west Sunday/Monday as an upper
low digs into the Great Lakes region around the longwave trough
over the eastern CONUS. This pattern change would result in north or
northwesterly flow aloft which would likely decrease temperatures
and increase rain chances. For now, will leave downward trending
temperatures but keep extended dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 98  71  99  73  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             102  75 101  74  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               101  71 101  72  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 103  75  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73  98  73  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          89  68  91  68  /  10   0  10   0
HOBBS NM                   97  70  97  70  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   89  62  90  63  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73  99  74  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  98  74  98  75  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                   100  75 101  74  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/27
661
FXUS64 KMAF 231102
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across southeast New Mexico and West
Texas today and tonight while mid and high clouds decrease.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

A broad upper ridge continues to spin over much of the southwest
CONUS, as seen on WV satellite this morning. This ridge will remain
the dominate weather feature during this forecast package, keeping
conditions generally hot and dry through the weekend.

The hot temperatures continue today under the influence of the upper
ridge with highs just above normal most areas. Have extended the
current Heat Advisory through 15Z just to get through the warm
morning lows but high temperatures do not look to meet advisory
criteria today. Much of the same expected Thursday, if not a degree
or two warmer. The center of the upper ridge will shift slightly
southward Friday and the 850mb thermal ridge looks to intensify just
west of the CWA. By Saturday, afternoon high temperatures will range
from 99-103 most areas with locations along the Pecos and Rio Grande
River Valleys possibly reaching 106, which is well above normal
readings. The airmass will be relatively dry so heat index values
will be close to the ambient temperatures, which will be at or just
above Heat Advisory criteria so one may be needed Friday and
Saturday to highlight river valley areas. With the upper ridge
centered just north of the region through the weekend, generally
ENE flow aloft will hold mid level moisture to the west and a dry
forecast is expected through the beginning of next week.

The upper ridge will retrograde back west Sunday/Monday as an upper
low digs into the Great Lakes region around the longwave trough
over the eastern CONUS. This pattern change would result in north or
northwesterly flow aloft which would likely decrease temperatures
and increase rain chances. For now, will leave downward trending
temperatures but keep extended dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 98  71  99  73  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             102  75 101  74  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               101  71 101  72  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 103  75  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73  98  73  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          89  68  91  68  /  10   0  10   0
HOBBS NM                   97  70  97  70  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   89  62  90  63  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73  99  74  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  98  74  98  75  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                   100  75 101  74  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

67/27
185
FXUS64 KMAF 230847
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
347 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A broad upper ridge continues to spin over much of the southwest
CONUS, as seen on WV satellite this morning. This ridge will remain
the dominate weather feature during this forecast package, keeping
conditions generally hot and dry through the weekend.

The hot temperatures continue today under the influence of the upper
ridge with highs just above normal most areas. Have extended the
current Heat Advisory through 15Z just to get through the warm
morning lows but high temperatures do not look to meet advisory
criteria today. Much of the same expected Thursday, if not a degree
or two warmer. The center of the upper ridge will shift slightly
southward Friday and the 850mb thermal ridge looks to intensify just
west of the CWA. By Saturday, afternoon high temperatures will range
from 99-103 most areas with locations along the Pecos and Rio Grande
River Valleys possibly reaching 106, which is well above normal
readings. The airmass will be relatively dry so heat index values
will be close to the ambient temperatures, which will be at or just
above Heat Advisory criteria so one may be needed Friday and
Saturday to highlight river valley areas. With the upper ridge
centered just north of the region through the weekend, generally
ENE flow aloft will hold mid level moisture to the west and a dry
forecast is expected through the beginning of next week.

The upper ridge will retrograde back west Sunday/Monday as an upper
low digs into the Great Lakes region around the longwave trough
over the eastern CONUS. This pattern change would result in north or
northwesterly flow aloft which would likely decrease temperatures
and increase rain chances. For now, will leave downward trending
temperatures but keep extended dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 98  71  99  73  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             102  75 101  74  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               101  71 101  72  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 103  75  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73  98  73  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          89  68  91  68  /  10   0  10   0
HOBBS NM                   97  70  97  70  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   89  62  90  63  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73  99  74  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  98  74  98  75  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                   100  75 101  74  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

67/27
036
FXUS64 KMAF 230212 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
912 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Have sent an update to remove PoPs across most areas with the
exception being the far wrn 1/3 of the CWFA where isold SHRA/TSRA
will be possible for a few more hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Thunderstorms that moved thru the MAF area have dissipated, however
there are cells developing about 30 ese of MAF. These are developing
near an outflow boundary, but are not expected to make it to MAF.
Winds will settle back to e-se at mostly less than 10 mph tonight.
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Tuesday...KMAF radar is showing
convection breaking out in the Sacramento Mtns...Northern Lea
County...and north of the northern tier of counties in the CWA
(Gaines...Dawson...Borden...and Scurry). There is also an isolated
cell WSW of Big Spring. The convection north of the CWA and near
Big Spring wasn`t forecast on any of the models.

Even though the 12Z MAF sounding showed less mid level moisture
recent water vapor imagery is showing that the mid level moisture
has been increasing. There also could be a subtle shortwave in the
water vapor imagery moving south which could be the reason why
there is convection moving south thru the Panhandle.

Convection will diminish overnight as the strong ridge remains
parked over northern New Mexico. After the convection this
evening...have kept the CWA dry right through next weekend and
into early next week...as mid level moisture should decrease in
the mid/upper level ENE flow.

Concerning the hot temperatures...will let the Heat Advisory
expire at 12Z Wed morning as the thermal ridge stays a little
further west. While Heat Advisory criteria might be met in a few
locations...it does not seem as widespread as the past couple of
days. The thermal ridge will edge east Friday and Saturday...which
will result in widespread 100+ temps...with 105+ in the Trans
Pecos and along portions of the Rio Grande River Valley. Even
though the atmosphere will be drier...overnight lows could stay at
or above 75 degrees. A Heat Advisory might be needed for
Friday/Saturday.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  99  73  99  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              76 102  76 100  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                74 100  72 102  /  20  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79 103  80 103  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  97  74  99  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  89  69  93  /  20  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   70  97  70  98  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  89  64  91  /  10  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  99  74  99  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  75  99  75  99  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    76 101  75 102  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$
115
FXUS64 KMAF 222320
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms that moved thru the MAF area have dissipated, however
there are cells developing about 30 ese of MAF. These are developing
near an outflow boundary, but are not expected to make it to MAF.
Winds will settle back to e-se at mostly less than 10 mph tonight.
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Tuesday...KMAF radar is showing
convection breaking out in the Sacramento Mtns...Northern Lea
County...and north of the northern tier of counties in the CWA
(Gaines...Dawson...Borden...and Scurry). There is also an isolated
cell WSW of Big Spring. The convection north of the CWA and near
Big Spring wasn`t forecast on any of the models.

Even though the 12Z MAF sounding showed less mid level moisture
recent water vapor imagery is showing that the mid level moisture
has been increasing. There also could be a subtle shortwave in the
water vapor imagery moving south which could be the reason why
there is convection moving south thru the Panhandle.

Convection will diminish overnight as the strong ridge remains
parked over northern New Mexico. After the convection this
evening...have kept the CWA dry right through next weekend and
into early next week...as mid level moisture should decrease in
the mid/upper level ENE flow.

Concerning the hot temperatures...will let the Heat Advisory
expire at 12Z Wed morning as the thermal ridge stays a little
further west. While Heat Advisory criteria might be met in a few
locations...it does not seem as widespread as the past couple of
days. The thermal ridge will edge east Friday and Saturday...which
will result in widespread 100+ temps...with 105+ in the Trans
Pecos and along portions of the Rio Grande River Valley. Even
though the atmosphere will be drier...overnight lows could stay at
or above 75 degrees. A Heat Advisory might be needed for
Friday/Saturday.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$
950
FXUS64 KMAF 221938
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
238 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Tuesday...KMAF radar is showing
convection breaking out in the Sacramento Mtns...Northern Lea
County...and north of the northern tier of counties in the CWA
(Gaines...Dawson...Borden...and Scurry). There is also an isolated
cell WSW of Big Spring. The convection north of the CWA and near
Big Spring wasn`t forecast on any of the models.

Even though the 12Z MAF sounding showed less mid level moisture
recent water vapor imagery is showing that the mid level moisture
has been increasing. There also could be a subtle shortwave in the
water vapor imagery moving south which could be the reason why
there is convection moving south thru the Panhandle.

Convection will diminish overnight as the strong ridge remains
parked over northern New Mexico. After the convection this
evening...have kept the CWA dry right through next weekend and
into early next week...as mid level moisture should decrease in
the mid/upper level ENE flow.

Concerning the hot temperatures...will let the Heat Advisory
expire at 12Z Wed morning as the thermal ridge stays a little
further west. While Heat Advisory criteria might be met in a few
locations...it does not seem as widespread as the past couple of
days. The thermal ridge will edge east Friday and Saturday...which
will result in widespread 100+ temps...with 105+ in the Trans
Pecos and along portions of the Rio Grande River Valley. Even
though the atmosphere will be drier...overnight lows could stay at
or above 75 degrees. A Heat Advisory might be needed for
Friday/Saturday.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  99  73  99  /  20   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              76 102  76 100  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                74 100  72 102  /  20  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79 103  80 103  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  97  74  99  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  89  69  93  /  20  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   70  97  70  98  /  20  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  89  64  91  /  20  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  99  74  99  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  75  99  75  99  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    76 101  75 102  /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

12/33
489
FXUS64 KMAF 221656
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1156 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms
are expected to remain west of the terminals through the forecast
period. Winds this afternoon with be east to southeast at
10 to 15 mph and gusty. Winds will diminish to less than 10 mph
tonight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

UPDATE...As of 8:30 AM CDT Tuesday...have updated the
grids/forecast for the morning to remove most of the POPS. KMAF
radar as well as regional radars are indc a rapid decrease of
convection this morning. Will take a look at the aftn/evening
forecast after the models come in. One item of note is that the
12Z MAF sounding showed a significant decrease in mid level
moisture which could lead to less convective initiation this
afternoon.

Strobin

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Diminishing convection just
north of the CWA has sent an outflow boundary south into southeast
NM, briefly shifting winds to a northerly direction this morning
at HOB and CNM. Could see isolated to scattered thunderstorms once
again this afternoon and evening mainly across southeast New Mexico,
possibly affecting CNM and HOB. Confidence is too low at this time
to mention in the current forecast. Otherwise, generally southeast
winds remain in place through Wednesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across
southeast New Mexico and West Texas through this week, and next
weekend too.  Subtropical moisture swirling beneath the upper ridge
is allowing for convection over the higher terrain during max
heating, as has occurred the past few days.  We`ve also seen
convection last well into the night under the ua ridge, and this
morning is no different with thunderstorms dropping slowly southward
into portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.  Expect to see a
gradual decrease in intensity/coverage with these storms through
22/12Z, as is typical this time of year with a warm, moist and
unstable airmass encompassing the forecast area.  Temperatures will
warm above normal again this afternoon with thunderstorms expected
to develop over the heated higher terrain, especially since an
h85-5 theta e axis will linger over southeast New Mexico, south
through the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and into the Big Bend
region.  It appears coverage will not be as great as yesterday, but
there could still be a few strong storms capable of locally heavy
rainfall, winds over 50 mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes.  Convection will persist into the night, with a repeat
performance over southeast New Mexico possible, perhaps a little
further west.

Slightly drier low level air will mix down over the region Wednesday
as the mentioned subtropical mid and upper level moisture moves
westward.  This should extinguish rain chances, even over the higher
terrain, Wednesday through at least Friday, although there are some
indications subtropical moisture may increase again by Friday or
Saturday.  Of more pressing concern will be the heat as the upper
ridge doesn`t really budge from it`s current location over the
southern U.S. Plains.  The Heat Advisory currently in effect for
the Rio Grande River from Candelaria, downstream to the Lower Trans
Pecos will remain in effect until Wednesday morning.  However, the
possibility exists for the advisory to be extended along the Rio
Grande, if not expanded over the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday through
Friday.  High temperatures above 105 degrees look to be inevitable
in these areas, but since low temperatures may not stay above 75
degrees will defer extension of the Heat Advisory at this time.

The upper ridge will stay centered over the southern U.S. Plains
into next weekend, but will become more east/west oriented as a
series of shortwave troughs traversing the northern Conus suppress
it somewhat southward.  Thereafter, an upper trough is expected to
deepen over the eastern Conus through early next week.  The upper
ridge will retrograde and amplify over the western Conus, although
it will still maintain a good deal of influence over the region.
At this time it appears we may see temperatures closer to normal by
early next week.  If we`re really lucky, we could see a cold front
and an appreciable increase in rain chances early to mid next week.
Will not go out on a limb right now, especially considering how
treacherously wrong progs can be 5 to 7 days in advance during the
summer months.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  75  99  75  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             100  77 101  78  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               103  75 102  73  /  30  30  10   0
DRYDEN TX                 101  80 103  80  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  76  99  74  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          92  70  92  70  /  20  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   96  72  98  72  /  20  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   91  65  91  66  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  76 100  75  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  99  77 100  76  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                   103  78 101  75  /  10  10  10   0

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

99/33
258
FXUS64 KMAF 221335
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
835 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE...As of 8:30 AM CDT Tuesday...have updated the
grids/forecast for the morning to remove most of the POPS. KMAF
radar as well as regional radars are indc a rapid decrease of
convection this morning. Will take a look at the aftn/evening
forecast after the models come in. One item of note is that the
12Z MAF sounding showed a significant decrease in mid level
moisture which could lead to less convective initiation this
afternoon.

Strobin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Diminishing convection just
north of the CWA has sent an outflow boundary south into southeast
NM, briefly shifting winds to a northerly direction this morning
at HOB and CNM. Could see isolated to scattered thunderstorms once
again this afternoon and evening mainly across southeast New Mexico,
possibly affecting CNM and HOB. Confidence is too low at this time
to mention in the current forecast. Otherwise, generally southeast
winds remain in place through Wednesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across
southeast New Mexico and West Texas through this week, and next
weekend too.  Subtropical moisture swirling beneath the upper ridge
is allowing for convection over the higher terrain during max
heating, as has occurred the past few days.  We`ve also seen
convection last well into the night under the ua ridge, and this
morning is no different with thunderstorms dropping slowly southward
into portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.  Expect to see a
gradual decrease in intensity/coverage with these storms through
22/12Z, as is typical this time of year with a warm, moist and
unstable airmass encompassing the forecast area.  Temperatures will
warm above normal again this afternoon with thunderstorms expected
to develop over the heated higher terrain, especially since an
h85-5 theta e axis will linger over southeast New Mexico, south
through the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and into the Big Bend
region.  It appears coverage will not be as great as yesterday, but
there could still be a few strong storms capable of locally heavy
rainfall, winds over 50 mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes.  Convection will persist into the night, with a repeat
performance over southeast New Mexico possible, perhaps a little
further west.

Slightly drier low level air will mix down over the region Wednesday
as the mentioned subtropical mid and upper level moisture moves
westward.  This should extinguish rain chances, even over the higher
terrain, Wednesday through at least Friday, although there are some
indications subtropical moisture may increase again by Friday or
Saturday.  Of more pressing concern will be the heat as the upper
ridge doesn`t really budge from it`s current location over the
southern U.S. Plains.  The Heat Advisory currently in effect for
the Rio Grande River from Candelaria, downstream to the Lower Trans
Pecos will remain in effect until Wednesday morning.  However, the
possibility exists for the advisory to be extended along the Rio
Grande, if not expanded over the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday through
Friday.  High temperatures above 105 degrees look to be inevitable
in these areas, but since low temperatures may not stay above 75
degrees will defer extension of the Heat Advisory at this time.

The upper ridge will stay centered over the southern U.S. Plains
into next weekend, but will become more east/west oriented as a
series of shortwave troughs traversing the northern Conus suppress
it somewhat southward.  Thereafter, an upper trough is expected to
deepen over the eastern Conus through early next week.  The upper
ridge will retrograde and amplify over the western Conus, although
it will still maintain a good deal of influence over the region.
At this time it appears we may see temperatures closer to normal by
early next week.  If we`re really lucky, we could see a cold front
and an appreciable increase in rain chances early to mid next week.
Will not go out on a limb right now, especially considering how
treacherously wrong progs can be 5 to 7 days in advance during the
summer months.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  75  99  75  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             100  77 101  78  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               103  75 102  73  /  30  30  10   0
DRYDEN TX                 101  80 103  80  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  76  99  74  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          92  70  92  70  /  20  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   96  72  98  72  /  20  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   91  65  91  66  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  76 100  75  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  99  77 100  76  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                   103  78 101  75  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

99/33
017
FXUS64 KMAF 221106
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Diminishing convection just
north of the CWA has sent an outflow boundary south into southeast
NM, briefly shifting winds to a northerly direction this morning
at HOB and CNM. Could see isolated to scattered thunderstorms once
again this afternoon and evening mainly across southeast New Mexico,
possibly affecting CNM and HOB. Confidence is too low at this time
to mention in the current forecast. Otherwise, generally southeast
winds remain in place through Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across
southeast New Mexico and West Texas through this week, and next
weekend too.  Subtropical moisture swirling beneath the upper ridge
is allowing for convection over the higher terrain during max
heating, as has occurred the past few days.  We`ve also seen
convection last well into the night under the ua ridge, and this
morning is no different with thunderstorms dropping slowly southward
into portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.  Expect to see a
gradual decrease in intensity/coverage with these storms through
22/12Z, as is typical this time of year with a warm, moist and
unstable airmass encompassing the forecast area.  Temperatures will
warm above normal again this afternoon with thunderstorms expected
to develop over the heated higher terrain, especially since an
h85-5 theta e axis will linger over southeast New Mexico, south
through the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and into the Big Bend
region.  It appears coverage will not be as great as yesterday, but
there could still be a few strong storms capable of locally heavy
rainfall, winds over 50 mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes.  Convection will persist into the night, with a repeat
performance over southeast New Mexico possible, perhaps a little
further west.

Slightly drier low level air will mix down over the region Wednesday
as the mentioned subtropical mid and upper level moisture moves
westward.  This should extinguish rain chances, even over the higher
terrain, Wednesday through at least Friday, although there are some
indications subtropical moisture may increase again by Friday or
Saturday.  Of more pressing concern will be the heat as the upper
ridge doesn`t really budge from it`s current location over the
southern U.S. Plains.  The Heat Advisory currently in effect for
the Rio Grande River from Candelaria, downstream to the Lower Trans
Pecos will remain in effect until Wednesday morning.  However, the
possibility exists for the advisory to be extended along the Rio
Grande, if not expanded over the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday through
Friday.  High temperatures above 105 degrees look to be inevitable
in these areas, but since low temperatures may not stay above 75
degrees will defer extension of the Heat Advisory at this time.

The upper ridge will stay centered over the southern U.S. Plains
into next weekend, but will become more east/west oriented as a
series of shortwave troughs traversing the northern Conus suppress
it somewhat southward.  Thereafter, an upper trough is expected to
deepen over the eastern Conus through early next week.  The upper
ridge will retrograde and amplify over the western Conus, although
it will still maintain a good deal of influence over the region.
At this time it appears we may see temperatures closer to normal by
early next week.  If we`re really lucky, we could see a cold front
and an appreciable increase in rain chances early to mid next week.
Will not go out on a limb right now, especially considering how
treacherously wrong progs can be 5 to 7 days in advance during the
summer months.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

27
530
FXUS64 KMAF 220908
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
408 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across
southeast New Mexico and West Texas through this week, and next
weekend too.  Subtropical moisture swirling beneath the upper ridge
is allowing for convection over the higher terrain during max
heating, as has occurred the past few days.  We`ve also seen
convection last well into the night under the ua ridge, and this
morning is no different with thunderstorms dropping slowly southward
into portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.  Expect to see a
gradual decrease in intensity/coverage with these storms through
22/12Z, as is typical this time of year with a warm, moist and
unstable airmass encompassing the forecast area.  Temperatures will
warm above normal again this afternoon with thunderstorms expected
to develop over the heated higher terrain, especially since an
h85-5 theta e axis will linger over southeast New Mexico, south
through the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and into the Big Bend
region.  It appears coverage will not be as great as yesterday, but
there could still be a few strong storms capable of locally heavy
rainfall, winds over 50 mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes.  Convection will persist into the night, with a repeat
performance over southeast New Mexico possible, perhaps a little
further west.

Slightly drier low level air will mix down over the region Wednesday
as the mentioned subtropical mid and upper level moisture moves
westward.  This should extinguish rain chances, even over the higher
terrain, Wednesday through at least Friday, although there are some
indications subtropical moisture may increase again by Friday or
Saturday.  Of more pressing concern will be the heat as the upper
ridge doesn`t really budge from it`s current location over the
southern U.S. Plains.  The Heat Advisory currently in effect for
the Rio Grande River from Candelaria, downstream to the Lower Trans
Pecos will remain in effect until Wednesday morning.  However, the
possibility exists for the advisory to be extended along the Rio
Grande, if not expanded over the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday through
Friday.  High temperatures above 105 degrees look to be inevitable
in these areas, but since low temperatures may not stay above 75
degrees will defer extension of the Heat Advisory at this time.

The upper ridge will stay centered over the southern U.S. Plains
into next weekend, but will become more east/west oriented as a
series of shortwave troughs traversing the northern Conus suppress
it somewhat southward.  Thereafter, an upper trough is expected to
deepen over the eastern Conus through early next week.  The upper
ridge will retrograde and amplify over the western Conus, although
it will still maintain a good deal of influence over the region.
At this time it appears we may see temperatures closer to normal by
early next week.  If we`re really lucky, we could see a cold front
and an appreciable increase in rain chances early to mid next week.
Will not go out on a limb right now, especially considering how
treacherously wrong progs can be 5 to 7 days in advance during the
summer months.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  75  99  75  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             100  77 101  78  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               103  75 102  73  /  30  30  10   0
DRYDEN TX                 101  80 103  80  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  76  99  74  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          92  70  92  70  /  20  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   96  72  98  72  /  30  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   91  65  91  66  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  76 100  75  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  99  77 100  76  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                   103  78 101  75  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

27/67
445
FXUS64 KMAF 220510
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Could see isolated to
scattered thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon and evening
mainly across southeast New Mexico, possibly affecting CNM and HOB.
Confidence is too low at this time to mention in the current
forecast. Otherwise, generally southeast winds remain in place
through Tuesday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT Monday...KMAF radar is showing
convection popping in the usual spots such as the Davis Mtns...Big
Bend...and the Guadalupe Mtns. Temps have already warmed into the
90s with even a few 100+ readings.

A large upper ridge is located over Northern New Mexico. A lee
trough will remain over extreme West Texas/Eastern New Mexico.
This will serve as the focus for convection this aftn/evening as
well as Tuesday aftn/evening with the deep layer easterly flow
providing upslope conditions. The convection will be mainly
across the usual mountain locales...possibly moving into the New
Mexico Plains. Temps will be above normal...and with the abundant
low level moisture morning lows will stay near 80 along the Rio
Grande. Therefore...have kept the Heat Advisory going thru Wed
morning along the Rio Grande River Valley.

The ridge will strengthen by mid week with very hot temperatures
and dry conditions as mid level moisture becomes limited. There
will be widespread 100+ temps across the CWA...with 105+ along the
Rio Grande and the Trans Pecos regions. There could be enough low
level moisture with the easterly flow to keep overnight lows above
75 along the Rio Grande and Trans Pecos. The heat advisory might
need to be extended through the end of the week and even into the
weekend along the Rio Grande and possibly include the Trans Pecos.

The 12Z GFS is hinting at some relief from the very hot temperatures
.but not til early next week. Be careful with any outdoor
activities for the next seven days and drink plenty of water.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

27
459
FXUS64 KMAF 212203
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
503 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, under the influence of
an upper ridge centered north of the area. W/the exception of
KCNM/KHOB, current convection should stay west of other terminals
invof a sfc trough. This activity should begin diminishing shortly
as peak heating passes. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu
field most terminals by late morning Tuesday, w/bases 5-6 kft agl.
However, convection Tuesday afternoon should stay W and N.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT Monday...KMAF radar is showing
convection popping in the usual spots such as the Davis Mtns...Big
Bend...and the Guadalupe Mtns. Temps have already warmed into the
90s with even a few 100+ readings.

A large upper ridge is located over Northern New Mexico. A lee
trough will remain over extreme West Texas/Eastern New Mexico.
This will serve as the focus for convection this aftn/evening as
well as Tuesday aftn/evening with the deep layer easterly flow
providing upslope conditions. The convection will be mainly
across the usual mountain locales...possibly moving into the New
Mexico Plains. Temps will be above normal...and with the abundant
low level moisture morning lows will stay near 80 along the Rio
Grande. Therefore...have kept the Heat Advisory going thru Wed
morning along the Rio Grande River Valley.

The ridge will strengthen by mid week with very hot temperatures
and dry conditions as mid level moisture becomes limited. There
will be widespread 100+ temps across the CWA...with 105+ along the
Rio Grande and the Trans Pecos regions. There could be enough low
level moisture with the easterly flow to keep overnight lows above
75 along the Rio Grande and Trans Pecos. The heat advisory might
need to be extended through the end of the week and even into the
weekend along the Rio Grande and possibly include the Trans Pecos.

The 12Z GFS is hinting at some relief from the very hot temperatures
..but not til early next week. Be careful with any outdoor
activities for the next seven days and drink plenty of water.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

44
348
FXUS64 KMAF 211954
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
254 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT Monday...KMAF radar is showing
convection popping in the usual spots such as the Davis Mtns...Big
Bend...and the Guadalupe Mtns. Temps have already warmed into the
90s with even a few 100+ readings.

A large upper ridge is located over Northern New Mexico. A lee
trough will remain over extreme West Texas/Eastern New Mexico.
This will serve as the focus for convection this aftn/evening as
well as Tuesday aftn/evening with the deep layer easterly flow
providing upslope conditions. The convection will be mainly
across the usual mountain locales...possibly moving into the New
Mexico Plains. Temps will be above normal...and with the abundant
low level moisture morning lows will stay near 80 along the Rio
Grande. Therefore...have kept the Heat Advisory going thru Wed
morning along the Rio Grande River Valley.

The ridge will strengthen by mid week with very hot temperatures
and dry conditions as mid level moisture becomes limited. There
will be widespread 100+ temps across the CWA...with 105+ along the
Rio Grande and the Trans Pecos regions. There could be enough low
level moisture with the easterly flow to keep overnight lows above
75 along the Rio Grande and Trans Pecos. The heat advisory might
need to be extended through the end of the week and even into the
weekend along the Rio Grande and possibly include the Trans Pecos.

The 12Z GFS is hinting at some relief from the very hot temperatures
...but not til early next week. Be careful with any outdoor
activities for the next seven days and drink plenty of water.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 75  99  74  98  /  10  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              78  99  78  99  /   0  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                77 102  73 100  /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  80 103  81 102  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           77 100  76  99  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  95  71  92  /  30  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   72  97  71  96  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   66  92  65  90  /  30  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    76  99  74  99  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  78  98  78  98  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    79 103  77 101  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

05/33
337
FXUS64 KMAF 211700
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at southeast New Mexico and southwest
Texas terminals through mid-day Tuesday. There is a slight chance
of thunderstorms mainly near the mountains of southeast New Mexico
and southwest Texas and nearby areas including PEQ and CNM. The
probability of occurrence of thunderstorms at these sites is too
low for inclusion in upcoming terminal forecasts. Winds in and
near these thunderstorms will be variable and gusty. Otherwise, no
significant weather is expected through mid-day Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and West
Texas TAF sites during the next 24 hours.  Thunderstorms which
develop this afternoon could affect kPEQ, KCNM, KINK and KHOB this
afternoon or evening.  However, probabilities are too low to include
in the current TAF issuance.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

Above normal temperatures are expected the next seven days
as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the
southern Rockies eastward to the southern Plains. At the
surface a lee trough is forecast to remain in place across
extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico many days through the next
week. More very intense heating along the surface trough with
upslope flow in the mountains combined with trapped mid level
moisture underneath the upper ridge should generate mainly
afternoon and evening isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains,
portions of the upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall both
today and Tuesday afternoon and evening. High temperatures once
again will be around 105 degrees along the Rio Grande river from
southern Terrell county westward to the Big Bend and Presidio
valley. Will issue a heat advisory through 12Z Wednesday morning
due to high temperatures expected to be at or above 105 degrees
along the Rio Grande with low temperatures expected to be 75 to
80.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to strengthen
and mid level moisture will become limited. Precipitation chances
do not appear high enough at this time to mention in the weather
grids Wednesday through next Monday. Temperatures will continue
to be much above normal. The heat advisory may need to be expanded
both in time and location.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

05
643
FXUS64 KMAF 211052
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and West
Texas TAF sites during the next 24 hours.  Thunderstorms which
develop this afternoon could affect kPEQ, KCNM, KINK and KHOB this
afternoon or evening.  However, probabilities are too low to include
in the current TAF issuance.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

Above normal temperatures are expected the next seven days
as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the
southern Rockies eastward to the southern Plains. At the
surface a lee trough is forecast to remain in place across
extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico many days through the next
week. More very intense heating along the surface trough with
upslope flow in the mountains combined with trapped mid level
moisture underneath the upper ridge should generate mainly
afternoon and evening isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains,
portions of the upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall both
today and Tuesday afternoon and evening. High temperatures once
again will be around 105 degrees along the Rio Grande river from
southern Terrell county westward to the Big Bend and Presidio
valley. Will issue a heat advisory through 12Z Wednesday morning
due to high temperatures expected to be at or above 105 degrees
along the Rio Grande with low temperatures expected to be 75 to
80.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to strengthen
and mid level moisture will become limited. Precipitation chances
do not appear high enough at this time to mention in the weather
grids Wednesday through next Monday. Temperatures will continue
to be much above normal. The heat advisory may need to be expanded
both in time and location.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  74  99  72  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               103  73 102  68  /  20  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                 104  76 103  76  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          101  75 100  73  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          96  70  95  67  /  30  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                   98  69  97  67  /  10  10  20  20
MARFA TX                   93  62  92  61  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  99  71  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  76  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   104  77 103  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

67/12
723
FXUS64 KMAF 210912
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
412 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures are expected the next seven days
as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the
southern Rockies eastward to the southern Plains. At the
surface a lee trough is forecast to remain in place across
extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico many days through the next
week. More very intense heating along the surface trough with
upslope flow in the mountains combined with trapped mid level
moisture underneath the upper ridge should generate mainly
afternoon and evening isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains,
portions of the upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall both
today and Tuesday afternoon and evening. High temperatures once
again will be around 105 degrees along the Rio Grande river from
southern Terrell county westward to the Big Bend and Presidio
valley. Will issue a heat advisory through 12Z Wednesday morning
due to high temperatures expected to be at or above 105 degrees
along the Rio Grande with low temperatures expected to be 75 to
80.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to strengthen
and mid level moisture will become limited. Precipitation chances
do not appear high enough at this time to mention in the weather
grids Wednesday through next Monday. Temperatures will continue
to be much above normal. The heat advisory may need to be expanded
both in time and location.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  74  99  72  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               103  73 102  68  /  20  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                 104  76 103  76  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          101  75 100  73  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          96  70  95  67  /  30  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                   98  69  97  67  /  10  10  20  20
MARFA TX                   93  62  92  61  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  99  71  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  76  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   104  77 103  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

67/12
798
FXUS64 KMAF 210454
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1154 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and West
Texas TAF sites during the next 24 hours.  Thunderstorms which
develop this afternoon should stay west of all TAF sites.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 134 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014/

Summertime wx pattern will continue with the upper ridge the
controlling feature. The upper ridge was centered right over the
area this morning and will slowly shift off to the west by midweek
as it strengthens. 850mb temps are expected to climb through the
week pushing temperatures across the region back above 100 degree.

July has been cooler than June with no 100 degrees days recorded so
far this month at MAF.  However that is expected to change with
readings at or above the Century mark returning by Wednesday and
increasing through the end of the week.  Highs along the Rio Grande
valley should exceed 105 most of the week.  Overnight temps will
also be slow to fall off and be generally in the 70s.

Expect to see storms over the mountains again today and Monday...
radar indicates first echos already beginning to pop.  Low level
moisture remains high... had dewpts as high as 70 at MAF this
morning.  12Z MAF sounding had a PW over 1.5 inches which is very
wet for this far west.  Good moisture should continue as a S to
SE surface wind continues through the week with a leeside trough.
Storms that develop should be slow moving and will have potential
for locally heavy rain.  Rain chances begin decreasing on Tuesday
with not much precip expected through the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
953
FXUS64 KMAF 202156
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours under upper lvl ridging.
Abundant moisture and low convective temps will result in a
widespread cu field developing by late morning Monday, w/bases 6-9
kft agl.  Otherwise, return flow continues.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 134 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Summertime wx pattern will continue with the upper ridge the
controlling feature.  The upper ridge was centered right over the
area this morning and will slowly shift off to the west by midweek
as it strengthens.  850mb temps are expected to climb through the
week pushing temperatures across the region back above 100 degree.

July has been cooler than June with no 100 degrees days recorded so
far this month at MAF.  However that is expected to change with
readings at or above the Century mark returning by Wednesday and
increasing through the end of the week.  Highs along the Rio Grande
valley should exceed 105 most of the week.  Overnight temps will
also be slow to fall off and be generally in the 70s.

Expect to see storms over the mountains again today and Monday...
radar indicates first echos already beginning to pop.  Low level
moisture remains high... had dewpts as high as 70 at MAF this
morning.  12Z MAF sounding had a PW over 1.5 inches which is very
wet for this far west.  Good moisture should continue as a S to
SE surface wind continues through the week with a leeside trough.
Storms that develop should be slow moving and will have potential
for locally heavy rain.  Rain chances begin decreasing on Tuesday
with not much precip expected through the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
182
FXUS64 KMAF 201834
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
134 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Summertime wx pattern will continue with the upper ridge the
controlling feature.  The upper ridge was centered right over the
area this morning and will slowly shift off to the west by midweek
as it strengthens.  850mb temps are expected to climb through the
week pushing temperatures across the region back above 100 degree.

July has been cooler than June with no 100 degrees days recorded so
far this month at MAF.  However that is expected to change with
readings at or above the Century mark returning by Wednesday and
increasing through the end of the week.  Highs along the Rio Grande
valley should exceed 105 most of the week.  Overnight temps will
also be slow to fall off and be generally in the 70s.

Expect to see storms over the mountains again today and Monday...
radar indicates first echos already beginning to pop.  Low level
moisture remains high... had dewpts as high as 70 at MAF this
morning.  12Z MAF sounding had a PW over 1.5 inches which is very
wet for this far west.  Good moisture should continue as a S to
SE surface wind continues through the week with a leeside trough.
Storms that develop should be slow moving and will have potential
for locally heavy rain.  Rain chances begin decreasing on Tuesday
with not much precip expected through the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74  99  73  98  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              74  99  74  98  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                73 101  73 100  /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  76 100  76  99  /  10   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75 101  74  99  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  94  70  95  /  30  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   71  98  71  98  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   65  93  62  93  /  30  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  99  74  99  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  75  99  76  99  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    75 102  76 101  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/72
562
FXUS64 KMAF 201642
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1142 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are forecast through mid-day Monday. Though a few
low clouds could approach the Permian Basin early Monday morning,
it currently appears that low ceilings are not likely to be
observed across southeast New Mexico or southwest Texas, even at
MAF, through Monday morning. With abundant moisture across this
area, scattered convective clouds can be expected mainly this
afternoon along with a few high clouds. A few isolated
thunderstorms are possible mainly late afternoon through mid
evening, though the chance of occurrence is too low for mention in
area terminal forecasts. Thunderstorms will be more common in the
mountainous terrain. Any thunderstorms that develop could produce
strong and variable wind gusts. Otherwise, winds will generally be
south to southeast at less than 12 knots across the area through
Monday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Other than including temporary MVFR ceilings at KMAF, expect VFR
conditions to prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon, but expect the
bulk of the storms to stay west of the TAF sites, so will not
include at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures are expected the next 7 days as an
upper level ridge builds across New Mexico and west Texas through
Tuesday and then shifts northwestward toward the 4 corners region
next Wednesday through Friday. At the surface a lee trough is
forecast to remain in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New
Mexico through early next week. Very intense heating along the
surface trough with upslope flow in the mountains combined with
weak trapped mid level moisture underneath the upper high should
generate mainly afternoon and evening isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast
New Mexico Plains, upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall today
and this evening when moisture will be greatest.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to shift toward
the four corners region. Precipitation chances will decrease as
the upper ridge takes the mid level moisture northwestward away
from the forecast area. Went with the warmer ECMWF temperatures
through the extended based on 850 millibar temperature forecast
consistency.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05
999
FXUS64 KMAF 201128
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
628 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Other than including temporary MVFR ceilings at KMAF, expect VFR
conditions to prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon, but expect the
bulk of the storms to stay west of the TAF sites, so will not
include at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures are expected the next 7 days as an
upper level ridge builds across New Mexico and west Texas through
Tuesday and then shifts northwestward toward the 4 corners region
next Wednesday through Friday. At the surface a lee trough is
forecast to remain in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New
Mexico through early next week. Very intense heating along the
surface trough with upslope flow in the mountains combined with
weak trapped mid level moisture underneath the upper high should
generate mainly afternoon and evening isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast
New Mexico Plains, upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall today
and this evening when moisture will be greatest.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to shift toward
the four corners region. Precipitation chances will decrease as
the upper ridge takes the mid level moisture northwestward away
from the forecast area. Went with the warmer ECMWF temperatures
through the extended based on 850 millibar temperature forecast
consistency.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              98  72  98  74  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               102  68 101  69  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                 102  74 102  75  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          100  73 100  73  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          97  67  95  69  /  30  30  20  20
HOBBS NM                   97  67  99  69  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   94  63  93  62  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  74  99  75  /  20  20  10  10
WINK TX                   102  75 102  75  /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
402
FXUS64 KMAF 200929
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
429 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures are expected the next 7 days as an
upper level ridge builds across New Mexico and west Texas through
Tuesday and then shifts northwestward toward the 4 corners region
next Wednesday through Friday. At the surface a lee trough is
forecast to remain in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New
Mexico through early next week. Very intense heating along the
surface trough with upslope flow in the mountains combined with
weak trapped mid level moisture underneath the upper high should
generate mainly afternoon and evening isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast
New Mexico Plains, upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall today
and this evening when moisture will be greatest.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to shift toward
the four corners region. Precipitation chances will decrease as
the upper ridge takes the mid level moisture northwestward away
from the forecast area. Went with the warmer ECMWF temperatures
through the extended based on 850 millibar temperature forecast
consistency.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              98  72  98  74  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               102  68 101  69  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                 102  74 102  75  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          100  73 100  73  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          97  67  95  69  /  30  30  20  20
HOBBS NM                   97  67  99  69  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   94  63  93  62  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  74  99  75  /  20  20  10  10
WINK TX                   102  75 102  75  /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
871
FXUS64 KMAF 200523
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms could affect KCNM and KHOB through 20/09Z so have
included variable and gusty winds, in addition to TSRA and MVFR
visibility.  Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail areawide
through the day.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over West Texas,
courtesy of a west coast trough trying to muscle in thru Baja.
Yesterday, a MCS developed in N central NM and moved SSE, but died
out before making it into SE NM. Current models attempt to
replicate this scenario tonight, but suggest the MCS might make it
a little further SE. Otherwise, at the sfc, a trough extended from
SW NM ESE down into the Big Bend, and will serve as the focus of
isolated convection for the next couple of days as abundant
diurnal heating combines w/minor disturbances moving down thru the
ridge. Sfc trough is forecast to orient more N-S Sunday and
Monday, and remain over the western half of the CWA. Forecast
soundings look too warm for much hail development, but inverted-V
profiles suggest strong winds will remain a threat. In addition,
KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a PWAT of 1.31"...about 130% of normal.
Given nil steering flow under the ridge, heavy rain will be
possible as well.

Models dissolve the sfc trough by Tuesday and begin moving the upper
ridge NNW over the next week to the Four Corners vicinity.  While
this will spare West Texas/SE NM the worst of the heat, the thermal
ridge will still push H85 temps towards 30C, for widespread
triple-digits by Tuesday or so, and continuing into the
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
675
FXUS64 KMAF 192334
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
634 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions should remain VFR for all TAF locations through the period.
Have a few lingering storms from CNM to E38 but expect these to die
out in the next hour or two.  Not expecting as much low clouds in
the Permian Basin Sunday morning as past few days... only mentioned
SCT stratus at MAF around sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over West Texas, courtesy
of a west coast trough trying to muscle in thru Baja.  Yesterday, a
MCS developed in N central NM and moved SSE, but died out before
making it into SE NM.  Current models attempt to replicate this
scenario tonight, but suggest the MCS might make it a little further
SE.  Otherwise, at the sfc, a trough extended from SW NM ESE down
into the Big Bend, and will serve as the focus of isolated
convection for the next couple of days as abundant diurnal heating
combines w/minor disturbances moving down thru the ridge.  Sfc
trough is forecast to orient more N-S Sunday and Monday, and remain
over the western half of the CWA.  Forecast soundings look too warm
for much hail development, but inverted-V profiles suggest strong
winds will remain a threat.  In addition, KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a
PWAT of 1.31"...about 130% of normal.  Given nil steering flow under
the ridge, heavy rain will be possible as well.

Models dissolve the sfc trough by Tuesday and begin moving the upper
ridge NNW over the next week to the Four Corners vicinity.  While
this will spare West Texas/SE NM the worst of the heat, the thermal
ridge will still push H85 temps towards 30C, for widespread
triple-digits by Tuesday or so, and continuing into the
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
929
FXUS64 KMAF 191921
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
221 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over West Texas, courtesy
of a west coast trough trying to muscle in thru Baja.  Yesterday, a
MCS developed in N central NM and moved SSE, but died out before
making it into SE NM.  Current models attempt to replicate this
scenario tonight, but suggest the MCS might make it a little further
SE.  Otherwise, at the sfc, a trough extended from SW NM ESE down
into the Big Bend, and will serve as the focus of isolated
convection for the next couple of days as abundant diurnal heating
combines w/minor disturbances moving down thru the ridge.  Sfc
trough is forecast to orient more N-S Sunday and Monday, and remain
over the western half of the CWA.  Forecast soundings look too warm
for much hail development, but inverted-V profiles suggest strong
winds will remain a threat.  In addition, KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a
PWAT of 1.31"...about 130% of normal.  Given nil steering flow under
the ridge, heavy rain will be possible as well.

Models dissolve the sfc trough by Tuesday and begin moving the upper
ridge NNW over the next week to the Four Corners vicinity.  While
this will spare West Texas/SE NM the worst of the heat, the thermal
ridge will still push H85 temps towards 30C, for widespread
triple-digits by Tuesday or so, and continuing into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74  97  72  97  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  99  71  98  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                73  98  71  98  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  75  98  73  96  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  99  73  98  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          73  88  73  89  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   70  92  68  96  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   62  89  64  89  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  98  72  98  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  74  97  73  98  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    75  98  73 101  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/44
695
FXUS64 KMAF 191709
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1209 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
By 18 today, low ceilings ha burned off across southeast New
Mexico an southwest Texas leaving only a few low clouds in the
Permian Basin and few high clouds over southwest Texas. During the
afternoon, scattered low clouds will develop and a few thunderstorms
are possible over the mountains of southwest Texas and over
southeast New Mexico. The chance of thunderstorms is too low to
include in terminal forecasts across this area. Skies will remain
generally scattered overnight with a few low clouds developing
near the Permian Basin. Due to the influence of high pressure
building aloft, ceilings are not expected. VFR conditions will
continue through 18Z Sunday. Winds will generally be south to
southeast at 12 knots or less, though occasional gusts below 20
knows are possible.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings are developing/spreading across west Texas into
southeast New Mexico, so will carry at all TAF sites through at
least 19/15Z.  Expect VFR conditions thereafter, however
thunderstorms will be possible at kCNM, KPEQ, KINK and KHOB.
Since probabilities are so low, will not include at any of these
sites at this time.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

Above normal temperatures will return to the forecast area for
the next 7 days as an upper level ridge builds across New Mexico
and west Texas. At the surface a lee trough is forecast to remain
in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico through
early next week. Very intense heating along the surface trough in
the mountains combined with weak disturbances moving south within
the upper ridge should generate mainly afternoon and evening
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains, upper Trans
Pecos and portions of the western Permian Basin most days through
Tuesday.

Beyond next Tuesday went with a dry forecast for now for the
remainder of the extended forecast through next Saturday. Will be
monitoring next Wednesday for a possible frontal passage and
increase chance of precipitation depicted on the ECMWF and CMC, but
confidence was not high for this scenario at this time. For next
Thursday through Saturday the upper ridge is forecast to drift
north across New Mexico with easterly flow aloft in place across
the region. Later shifts will need to monitor for the potential
of isolated storms in the mountains. Temperatures will continue
above normal next Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05
173
FXUS64 KMAF 191101
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings are developing/spreading across west Texas into
southeast New Mexico, so will carry at all TAF sites through at
least 19/15Z.  Expect VFR conditions thereafter, however
thunderstorms will be possible at kCNM, KPEQ, KINK and KHOB.
Since probabilities are so low, will not include at any of these
sites at this time.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

Above normal temperatures will return to the forecast area for
the next 7 days as an upper level ridge builds across New Mexico
and west Texas. At the surface a lee trough is forecast to remain
in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico through
early next week. Very intense heating along the surface trough in
the mountains combined with weak disturbances moving south within
the upper ridge should generate mainly afternoon and evening
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains, upper Trans
Pecos and portions of the western Permian Basin most days through
Tuesday.

Beyond next Tuesday went with a dry forecast for now for the
remainder of the extended forecast through next Saturday. Will be
monitoring next Wednesday for a possible frontal passage and
increase chance of precipitation depicted on the ECMWF and CMC, but
confidence was not high for this scenario at this time. For next
Thursday through Saturday the upper ridge is forecast to drift
north across New Mexico with easterly flow aloft in place across
the region. Later shifts will need to monitor for the potential
of isolated storms in the mountains. Temperatures will continue
above normal next Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  73  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              95  72  97  73  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               100  70 102  70  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  99  74 101  75  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  76 100  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          92  69  93  68  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   96  69  97  71  /  20  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   90  64  91  63  /  30  30  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    96  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  97  75  99  75  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   100  77 103  77  /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
957
FXUS64 KMAF 190923
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
423 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures will return to the forecast area for
the next 7 days as an upper level ridge builds across New Mexico
and west Texas. At the surface a lee trough is forecast to remain
in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico through
early next week. Very intense heating along the surface trough
in the mountains combined with weak disturbances moving south
within the upper ridge should generate mainly afternoon and
evening isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains,
upper Trans Pecos and portions of the western Permian Basin
most days through Tuesday.

Beyond next Tuesday went with a dry forecast for now for the
remainder of the extended forecast through next Saturday. Will be
monitoring next Wednesday for a possible frontal passage and
increase chance of precipitation depicted on the ECMWF and CMC, but
confidence was not high for this scenario at this time. For next
Thursday through Saturday the upper ridge is forecast to drift
north across New Mexico with easterly flow aloft in place across
the region. Later shifts will need to monitor for the potential
of isolated storms in the mountains. Temperatures will continue
above normal next Wednesday through Friday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  73  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              95  72  97  73  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               100  70 102  70  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  99  74 101  75  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  76 100  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          92  69  93  68  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   96  69  97  71  /  20  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   90  64  91  63  /  30  30  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    96  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  97  75  99  75  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   100  77 103  77  /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
334
FXUS64 KMAF 190440
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1140 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail most of the night across southeast New
Mexico and west Texas.  However, MVFR ceilings are expected to
develop late tonight and affect all TAF sites through at least
19/15Z.  Thereafter, VFR conditions will prevail again while
southeasterly surface winds of 15kt or less are expected at all TAF
sites.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014/

Afternoon storms are developing once again across the Big Bend and
Davis Mountains though overall coverage will be less than seen the
past couple of days. Clouds and cool air over the Permian Basin
will ensure the best instability will remain west of the Pecos
River today. Shear values are fairly low so the severe threat
appears minimal with heavy rain leading to localized flash
flooding being the primary threat.

An upper level high will build north out of Mexico over the
weekend keeping convection in the western CWA Saturday then just
about eliminating it on Sunday. Increasing subsidence will bring
an end to the recent pleasant temperatures and reminding us that
it is still July. Temps will approach or exceed 100 across much of
the area Sunday and Monday and may approach Heat Advisory levels
in the Pecos River and Rio Grande valleys. The high center will
continue to move north by the middle of next week bringing deep
easterly flow to west Texas and eastern New Mexico. This should
help cool temperatures slightly though they will remain above
normal the end of the forecast period.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
189
FXUS64 KMAF 182328
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
628 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
A surface trough west of the area will keep the wind out of the E
to SE through the TAF period.  May see return of low clouds around
sunrise with MVFR cigs possible at MAF and HOB.  Could see some
afternoon storms from CNM to MRF but did not mention in the TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Afternoon storms are developing once again across the Big Bend and
Davis Mountains though overall coverage will be less than seen the
past couple of days. Clouds and cool air over the Permian Basin
will ensure the best instability will remain west of the Pecos
River today. Shear values are fairly low so the severe threat
appears minimal with heavy rain leading to localized flash
flooding being the primary threat.

An upper level high will build north out of Mexico over the
weekend keeping convection in the western CWA Saturday then just
about eliminating it on Sunday. Increasing subsidence will bring
an end to the recent pleasant temperatures and reminding us that
it is still July. Temps will approach or exceed 100 across much of
the area Sunday and Monday and may approach Heat Advisory levels
in the Pecos River and Rio Grande valleys. The high center will
continue to move north by the middle of next week bringing deep
easterly flow to west Texas and eastern New Mexico. This should
help cool temperatures slightly though they will remain above
normal the end of the forecast period.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
641
FXUS64 KMAF 181919
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
219 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon storms are developing once again across the Big Bend and
Davis Mountains though overall coverage will be less than seen the
past couple of days. Clouds and cool air over the Permian Basin
will ensure the best instability will remain west of the Pecos
River today. Shear values are fairly low so the severe threat
appears minimal with heavy rain leading to localized flash
flooding being the primary threat.

An upper level high will build north out of Mexico over the
weekend keeping convection in the western CWA Saturday then just
about eliminating it on Sunday. Increasing subsidence will bring
an end to the recent pleasant temperatures and reminding us that
it is still July. Temps will approach or exceed 100 across much of
the area Sunday and Monday and may approach Heat Advisory levels
in the Pecos River and Rio Grande valleys. The high center will
continue to move north by the middle of next week bringing deep
easterly flow to west Texas and eastern New Mexico. This should
help cool temperatures slightly though they will remain above
normal the end of the forecast period.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  95  73  98  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              70  94  74  97  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                71  99  73 100  /  10  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  74  98  75 101  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  97  74 100  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  91  69  93  /  20  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   68  95  71  97  /  10  20  20  10
MARFA TX                   64  89  66  91  /  30  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  95  74  99  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  72  96  74  99  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    73 100  76 103  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10
979
FXUS64 KMAF 181747
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1247 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS will gradually improve during the afternoon, becoming
VFR after 21Z at TAF locations. As surface high pressure slides
east of the area, surface winds will become southeast to south across
the area this afternoon. MVFR or IFR ceilings are expected to
redevelop at KMAF Saturday morning. KHOB, KFST, and KINK could
also see low clouds but to a lesser extent. Shower and
thunderstorm development will remain mostly west of TAF locations later
this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014/

The cold front has pushed all the way to the Rio Grande this
morning aided by widespread convection across the area yesterday.
We are looking at a pretty nice day for mid July with high
temperatures 5-10 degrees below average. Low level moisture along
with easterly upslope flow should allow for convection to fire
this afternoon in the higher terrain of the Davis and Guadalupe
Mtns. The upper ridge begins to build in from the west Saturday
with warming temperatures and diminishing precip chances. Saturday
will not be all that bad yet with highs near normal, but by Sunday
into Monday the upper ridge becomes more established centering
itself over eastern NM. This will send most locations into the
triple digits with areas along the Rio Grande possibly needing a
Heat Advisory early next week. It appears that enough moisture
will be around for a few isolated storms each afternoon in the
Davis Mtns through about midweek before drier air invades from the
east. Have also kept isolated PoPs for Saturday afternoon across
SE NM as a weak upper disturbance moves south over the area.
Otherwise, expect dry and hot conditions next week as the upper
high stays in control of our weather.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03
192
FXUS64 KMAF 181107
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
607 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings have developed over portions of the area this morning,
the viewing of which on satellite imagery is being obstructed by
more extensive mid and high clouds.  Have included MVFR ceilings at
all area TAF sites, in addition to temporary IFR ceilings near 1 kft
until the 18/15Z to 18/18Z timeframe when they begin to lift.  Fog
development is not favored considering the extensive cloud cover so
will not include at any TAF sites.  Expect VFR conditions this
afternoon and tonight.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014/

The cold front has pushed all the way to the Rio Grande this
morning aided by widespread convection across the area yesterday.
We are looking at a pretty nice day for mid July with high
temperatures 5-10 degrees below average. Low level moisture along
with easterly upslope flow should allow for convection to fire
this afternoon in the higher terrain of the Davis and Guadalupe
Mtns. The upper ridge begins to build in from the west Saturday
with warming temperatures and diminishing precip chances. Saturday
will not be all that bad yet with highs near normal, but by Sunday
into Monday the upper ridge becomes more established centering
itself over eastern NM. This will send most locations into the
triple digits with areas along the Rio Grande possibly needing a
Heat Advisory early next week. It appears that enough moisture
will be around for a few isolated storms each afternoon in the
Davis Mtns through about midweek before drier air invades from the
east. Have also kept isolated PoPs for Saturday afternoon across
SE NM as a weak upper disturbance moves south over the area.
Otherwise, expect dry and hot conditions next week as the upper
high stays in control of our weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  69  95  73  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              86  73  96  75  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                91  71  99  72  /  10  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  93  76  98  78  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           90  73  96  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          85  68  92  69  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   87  68  94  70  /  10  10  20  20
MARFA TX                   85  61  90  62  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    87  71  95  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  88  72  96  74  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    93  74 100  76  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29
614
FXUS64 KMAF 180905
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
405 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The cold front has pushed all the way to the Rio Grande this morning
aided by widespread convection across the area yesterday. We are
looking at a pretty nice day for mid July with high temperatures
5-10 degrees below average. Low level moisture along with easterly
upslope flow should allow for convection to fire this afternoon in
the higher terrain of the Davis and Guadalupe Mnts. The upper ridge
begins to build in from the west Saturday with warming temperatures
and diminishing precip chances. Saturday will not be all that bad
yet with highs near normal, but by Sunday into Monday the upper
ridge becomes more established centering itself over eastern NM.
This will send most locations into the triple digits with areas
along the Rio Grande possibly needing a Heat Advisory early next
week. It appears that enough moisture will be around for a few
isolated storms each afternoon in the Davis Mnts through about
midweek before drier air invades from the east. Have also kept
isolated PoPs for Saturday afternoon across SE NM as a weak upper
disturbance moves south over the area. Otherwise, expect dry and hot
conditions next week as the upper high stays in control of our
weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  69  95  73  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              86  73  96  75  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                91  71  99  72  /  10  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  93  76  98  78  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           90  73  96  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          85  68  92  69  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   87  68  94  70  /  10  10  20  20
MARFA TX                   85  61  90  62  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    87  71  95  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  88  72  96  74  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    93  74 100  76  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29
868
FXUS64 KMAF 180504
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect MVFR and IFR ceilings to develop over much of southeast New
Mexico overnight.  Scattered thunderstorms coming off the higher
terrain, along with mid and high cloud spreading over the region
will complicate the low cloud development.  Will carry lower
ceilings at all TAF sites, which should scatter out around 18/15Z.
If more breaks in the clouds occur through 18/12Z, fog may form, but
have not included any at this time.  VFR conditions are expected
from late morning through the afternoon.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
931
FXUS64 KMAF 180209 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
909 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
We have sent an update to the forecast to decrease PoPs especially
n of the Pecos River. Isolated PoPs to the west with tstms still
moving swd near the mtns and showers/tstms still lingering across
the far s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs
possible at most terminals Friday morning. Currently, conditions
have improved and all TAF sites are VFR. Thunderstorms remain
confined to the higher terrain and Big Bend regions this evening,
currently not affecting any terminals. There are a few thunderstorms
that have popped up across SE NM so will continue to monitor radar
trends and amend when needed. Generally northeast winds across the
region and expect light easterly winds through the TAF period.
Thinking at least MVFR (possibly IFR) cigs will return early Friday
morning and stick around through mid morning. Currently have mention
at all but PEQ and FST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is a broad upper trough over the eastern half of the conus
with a shortwave currently moving over Oklahoma on the backside of
this upper trough.  This shortwave is sending a cold front southward
toward the CWA this afternoon.  Upper level lift is being enhanced
over the region as a result of shortwaves moving over/near the
area.  The cold front, which is entering into the northern CWA, will
enhance lift as well.  There is an abundance of moisture across the
area, so showers and thunderstorms are currently developing and
moving across the CWA.  Some of these storms have the potential to
become severe with CAPE values forecast to be well over 1000 J/Kg
and 0 to 6 km bulk shear around 30 kts.  Gusty winds, hail, and
brief heavy rain will be the main threats with these storms.  High
temperatures today will be highly dependent upon the timing of the
front and the amount of sunshine.

The cold front will finish pushing through the area tonight ending
up against the higher terrain by Friday afternoon.  This will be the
main area for showers and thunderstorms, along with the Lower Trans
Pecos, on Friday as the upper trough moves eastward.  A lee surface
trough will be present across far West Texas and eastern New Mexico
so this will aid in lift for thunderstorm development. Cooler
temperatures will be present across the area on Friday with highs
about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

The upper trough and main area of upper lift will be east of the
region by Saturday, so precipitation chances will begin to
decrease.  Although the area will be in west to northwest flow aloft
with a surface trough present, shortwaves may move down over the
area and provide enough lift for thunderstorm development.
Generally expect storms on Saturday to be confined to the higher
terrain, but convection may occur across the northeast CWA as a
shortwave approaches.  Temperatures are expected to warm up to above
normal values beginning on Saturday as upper ridging builds over the
area.  Many places will experience temperatures in the triple digits
over the weekend.  Temperatures will remain hot through early next
week as the upper ridge dominates the weather pattern.  Due to this
ridge, expect thunderstorm chances to remain across the higher
terrain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  88  70  98  /  10  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              65  86  71  97  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  92  70 100  /  10  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  76  94  77  97  /  30  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  90  73  98  /  20  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  88  69  93  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   64  87  69  97  /  10  10  10  20
MARFA TX                   60  86  62  92  /  20  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  89  71  98  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  67  88  72  99  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    69  93  74 102  /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
414
FXUS64 KMAF 172329
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs
possible at most terminals Friday morning. Currently, conditions
have improved and all TAF sites are VFR. Thunderstorms remain
confined to the higher terrain and Big Bend regions this evening,
currently not affecting any terminals. There are a few thunderstorms
that have popped up across SE NM so will continue to monitor radar
trends and amend when needed. Generally northeast winds across the
region and expect light easterly winds through the TAF period.
Thinking at least MVFR (possibly IFR) cigs will return early Friday
morning and stick around through mid morning. Currently have mention
at all but PEQ and FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is a broad upper trough over the eastern half of the conus
with a shortwave currently moving over Oklahoma on the backside of
this upper trough.  This shortwave is sending a cold front southward
toward the CWA this afternoon.  Upper level lift is being enhanced
over the region as a result of shortwaves moving over/near the
area.  The cold front, which is entering into the northern CWA, will
enhance lift as well.  There is an abundance of moisture across the
area, so showers and thunderstorms are currently developing and
moving across the CWA.  Some of these storms have the potential to
become severe with CAPE values forecast to be well over 1000 J/Kg
and 0 to 6 km bulk shear around 30 kts.  Gusty winds, hail, and
brief heavy rain will be the main threats with these storms.  High
temperatures today will be highly dependent upon the timing of the
front and the amount of sunshine.

The cold front will finish pushing through the area tonight ending
up against the higher terrain by Friday afternoon.  This will be the
main area for showers and thunderstorms, along with the Lower Trans
Pecos, on Friday as the upper trough moves eastward.  A lee surface
trough will be present across far West Texas and eastern New Mexico
so this will aid in lift for thunderstorm development. Cooler
temperatures will be present across the area on Friday with highs
about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

The upper trough and main area of upper lift will be east of the
region by Saturday, so precipitation chances will begin to
decrease.  Although the area will be in west to northwest flow aloft
with a surface trough present, shortwaves may move down over the
area and provide enough lift for thunderstorm development.
Generally expect storms on Saturday to be confined to the higher
terrain, but convection may occur across the northeast CWA as a
shortwave approaches.  Temperatures are expected to warm up to above
normal values beginning on Saturday as upper ridging builds over the
area.  Many places will experience temperatures in the triple digits
over the weekend.  Temperatures will remain hot through early next
week as the upper ridge dominates the weather pattern.  Due to this
ridge, expect thunderstorm chances to remain across the higher
terrain.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27
296
FXUS64 KMAF 171931
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

There is a broad upper trough over the eastern half of the conus
with a shortwave currently moving over Oklahoma on the backside of
this upper trough.  This shortwave is sending a cold front southward
toward the CWA this afternoon.  Upper level lift is being enhanced
over the region as a result of shortwaves moving over/near the
area.  The cold front, which is entering into the northern CWA, will
enhance lift as well.  There is an abundance of moisture across the
area, so showers and thunderstorms are currently developing and
moving across the CWA.  Some of these storms have the potential to
become severe with CAPE values forecast to be well over 1000 J/Kg
and 0 to 6 km bulk shear around 30 kts.  Gusty winds, hail, and
brief heavy rain will be the main threats with these storms.  High
temperatures today will be highly dependent upon the timing of the
front and the amount of sunshine.

The cold front will finish pushing through the area tonight ending
up against the higher terrain by Friday afternoon.  This will be the
main area for showers and thunderstorms, along with the Lower Trans
Pecos, on Friday as the upper trough moves eastward.  A lee surface
trough will be present across far West Texas and eastern New Mexico
so this will aid in lift for thunderstorm development. Cooler
temperatures will be present across the area on Friday with highs
about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

The upper trough and main area of upper lift will be east of the
region by Saturday, so precipitation chances will begin to
decrease.  Although the area will be in west to northwest flow aloft
with a surface trough present, shortwaves may move down over the
area and provide enough lift for thunderstorm development.
Generally expect storms on Saturday to be confined to the higher
terrain, but convection may occur across the northeast CWA as a
shortwave approaches.  Temperatures are expected to warm up to above
normal values beginning on Saturday as upper ridging builds over the
area.  Many places will experience temperatures in the triple digits
over the weekend.  Temperatures will remain hot through early next
week as the upper ridge dominates the weather pattern.  Due to this
ridge, expect thunderstorm chances to remain across the higher
terrain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  88  70  98  /  40  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              65  86  71  97  /  50  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  92  70 100  /  20  20  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  76  94  77  97  /  40  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  90  73  98  /  50  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  88  69  93  /  30  30  20  20
HOBBS NM                   64  87  69  97  /  20  20  10  20
MARFA TX                   60  86  62  92  /  40  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  89  71  98  /  40  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  67  88  72  99  /  40  10  10  10
WINK TX                    69  93  74 102  /  40  20  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/80
275
FXUS64 KMAF 171742
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers are diminishing across the area and additional development
will depend on whether skies can clear to provide needed
instability. Given the amount of current cloud cover will leave TS
out of all TAFs for now and amend if needed. MVFR CIGs currently
at HOB will spread to MAF but considerable uncertainty in when
that will occur. Current obs showing SCT016 and this could easily
become BKN within the hour requiring an amendment, though
conditions should improve later this afternoon with another round
of lower CIGS later tonight.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

As expected, a large convective system is rolling across the Red
River Valley this morning with an outflow boundary trailing to its
southwest. This boundary will play a roll in what happens later
today as it will be a focus for convection. It appears the boundary
will settle along or just south of the I-20 corridor by early this
afternoon. Meanwhile, a cold front was sliding south across the TX
PH as an associated shortwave moves into OK. This front will
continue to move south today and likely catch up to the remnant
outflow boundary over our area. Showers and storms will fire along
the front and move southeast within NW flow aloft. Strong heating
south of the front will allow CAPE values to reach in excess of 2500
J/kg. This combined with decent deep layer shear will create a
potential for a few storms to become severe with large hail and
damaging winds. The most favored area for convection will be the
eastern Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

The cold front will push south tonight settling against the higher
terrain. Will maintain a chance for storms along and south of the
Pecos River Friday as upslope flow along with the frontal boundary
provide sufficient lift. Temperatures will cool behind the front and
make for a pleasant July day (except for folks along the Rio Grande
who will remain south of the front). Expect afternoon high temps to
be around 10 degrees below average.

By Saturday, the upper ridge really begins to build in and
strengthen across the area. This means rain chances will diminish
(except for the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains) and temperatures will
soar into the upper 90s and triple digits. Depending on where the
center of the ridge sets up, there may be a chance for a disturbance
or two to affect us from the north. Will keep PoPs low for now as
long range models continue to struggle with the strength of the
ridge next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10
050
FXUS64 KMAF 171007
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
507 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014

.AVIATION...

Area radars show spotty convection invof KFST/KINK, while up
north, a cold front continues moving south, spawning convection
along/behind it. Latest models still bringing the front into KHOB
at around 15Z...and thru KFST 00Z. Prefer to hold off introducing
convection along the front later today, as models have had a poor
grasp on the situation the past couple of days. Forecast soundings
develop a widespread cu field by late morning, w/bases 4.5-6kft
agl. Buffer soundings hint at post-frontal stratus moving in at
KMAF/KFST near the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

As expected, a large convective system is rolling across the Red
River Valley this morning with an outflow boundary trailing to its
southwest. This boundary will play a roll in what happens later
today as it will be a focus for convection. It appears the boundary
will settle along or just south of the I-20 corridor by early this
afternoon. Meanwhile, a cold front was sliding south across the TX
PH as an associated shortwave moves into OK. This front will
continue to move south today and likely catch up to the remnant
outflow boundary over our area. Showers and storms will fire along
the front and move southeast within NW flow aloft. Strong heating
south of the front will allow CAPE values to reach in excess of 2500
J/kg. This combined with decent deep layer shear will create a
potential for a few storms to become severe with large hail and
damaging winds. The most favored area for convection will be the
eastern Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

The cold front will push south tonight settling against the higher
terrain. Will maintain a chance for storms along and south of the
Pecos River Friday as upslope flow along with the frontal boundary
provide sufficient lift. Temperatures will cool behind the front and
make for a pleasant July day (except for folks along the Rio Grande
who will remain south of the front). Expect afternoon high temps to
be around 10 degrees below average.

By Saturday, the upper ridge really begins to build in and
strengthen across the area. This means rain chances will diminish
(except for the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains) and temperatures will
soar into the upper 90s and triple digits. Depending on where the
center of the ridge sets up, there may be a chance for a disturbance
or two to affect us from the north. Will keep PoPs low for now as
long range models continue to struggle with the strength of the
ridge next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
981
FXUS64 KMAF 170916
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
416 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

As expected, a large convective system is rolling across the Red
River Valley this morning with an outflow boundary trailing to its
southwest. This boundary will play a roll in what happens later
today as it will be a focus for convection. It appears the boundary
will settle along or just south of the I-20 corridor by early this
afternoon. Meanwhile, a cold front was sliding south across the TX
PH as an associated shortwave moves into OK. This front will
continue to move south today and likely catch up to the remnant
outflow boundary over our area. Showers and storms will fire along
the front and move southeast within NW flow aloft. Strong heating
south of the front will allow CAPE values to reach in excess of 2500
J/kg. This combined with decent deep layer shear will create a
potential for a few storms to become severe with large hail and
damaging winds. The most favored area for convection will be the
eastern Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

The cold front will push south tonight settling against the higher
terrain. Will maintain a chance for storms along and south of the
Pecos River Friday as upslope flow along with the frontal boundary
provide sufficient lift. Temperatures will cool behind the front and
make for a pleasant July day (except for folks along the Rio Grande
who will remain south of the front). Expect afternoon high temps to
be around 10 degrees below average.

By Saturday, the upper ridge really begins to build in and
strengthen across the area. This means rain chances will diminish
(except for the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains) and temperatures will
soar into the upper 90s and triple digits. Depending on where the
center of the ridge sets up, there may be a chance for a disturbance
or two to affect us from the north. Will keep PoPs low for now as
long range models continue to struggle with the strength of the
ridge next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 91  65  87  70  /  40  40  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              92  68  85  73  /  60  50  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                95  69  92  70  /  20  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 100  78  96  78  /  30  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  69  89  74  /  50  50  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          87  63  85  68  /  20  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   91  64  87  69  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   87  63  86  62  /  40  40  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    91  66  88  71  /  40  40  10  10
ODESSA TX                  92  67  88  72  /  40  40  10  10
WINK TX                    95  69  93  75  /  40  40  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/29

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