Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 192252

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
552 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016


See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.



Latest sfc analysis and area radars show the cold front just north
of the CWA. The prefrontal trough has already shifted winds over
many terminals, making precise fropa difficult. Regardless, sfc
flow will keep veering as the front moves thru, w/winds increasing
overnight. As far as post-frontal stratus, a very dry AMS is in
place, and so cigs will be brief. Buffer soundings bring in a
couple of hours of IFR cigs KFST, and MVFR KMAF...both where
better moisture resides. Other terminals should stay VFR.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 pm CDT...A change to more fall-like
weather across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico for the end of
the work week (finally!). Of course we must get thru todays
summer-like temps. As of 2 pm KMAF has reached 90 degrees which
ties the record set on this date in 1936. There is little doubt
that the record will be broken later this aftn.

A cold front is making its way south across the Northeast New
Mexico Plains and the Northern Texas Panhandle. The cold front
should move across the Permian Basin this evening...thru the
Trans Pecos in the early morning hours...and down to the Rio
Grande by sunrise. There could be a few showers/storms along and
behind the front...mainly in the eastern and southern CWA where
the best moisture resides into Thursday morning. Winds will be
gusty after fropa...but should remain below Advisory levels in the
Plains. Have kept the High Wind Warning for Guadalupe Pass in West
Texas for late tonight into early Thursday aftn as northeast gap
winds could gust to 60 mph. Thursday aftn thru Friday should see
high temps in the upper 60s to upper 70s...a few degrees below
normal with dry conditions.

Ridging will build in from the eastern Pacific thru Sonora and
Chihuahua into Texas over the weekend and into the middle of next
week. In addition...there will be sfc lee troughing across West
Texas and Eastern New Mexico. This will result in temps mainly in
the 80s...5 to 10 degrees above normal (normal high temp for KMAF
over the weekend is 76). There could be an isolated diurnal
thunderstorm over the mtns if the cap breaks.

Looking further out (beyond the current forecast) both the 12Z GFS
and ECMWF are showing a major pattern change for the end of next
week and into the following weekend. In general...models are
bringing a cold upper trough into the Desert SW with deep layer
southwest flow. If...and since it is out 8-10 days things can
change...the models continue this trend it could lead to a wet and
cool pattern across the CWA the end of next week.



Big Spring                     59  72  47  74 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       51  70  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         65  76  52  77 /  10  20   0   0
Fort Stockton                  57  69  47  76 /  20  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  63  44  68 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          49  68  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  65  39  70 /  10  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           58  71  45  74 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         57  71  45  73 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           57  73  44  75 /  10  10   0   0


TX...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 3 PM MDT Thursday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.