Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 161011

511 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014


Area radars show convection persisting south of KCNM, but less strong
than last issuance. Expect VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Models
continue to handle this convection poorly, so we`ll forgo
inserting a mention of convection unless needed. However,
forecast soundings suggest a widespread cu field developing by
late morning, w/bases 4.5-7kft agl.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014/


Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing most of the morning
across SE NM and the Guadalupe Mountains likely due to a weak wave
moving south across the TX PH. This activity may hold on for a few
more hours before dissipating so have kept higher PoPs over these
areas into this morning. Nonetheless, heavy rain has likely
created flash flooding in and around Guadalupe Mountains NP and
along the Black River.

An anomalously strong upper trough over the eastern Great Lakes
combined with a West Coast ridge have placed our region in weak
northwesterly mid level flow. Similar to yesterday, scattered
showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon. Without a
strong wave nearby, the most favored locations will again be the
higher terrain in and around the Davis Mountains and across SE NM.
Elsewhere, any left over outflow boundaries will need to be
monitored as strong sfc heating will create a moderately unstable
environment for convection to form in. Deep layer shear will remain
weak through this evening so expect storms to be mostly slow
movers producing heavy rain. High temperatures will be greatly
affected by how much cloud cover hangs around into the afternoon.
This time of year a little sunshine can go a long way so even with
a few peaks of sun temperatures should make it to near seasonal

Meanwhile, another shortwave will slide down the front range of the
Rockies tonight and move across the S. Plains on Thursday. This will
bring a cold front into the area Thursday along with a decent
chance of rain. Models continue to suggest widespread thunderstorm
development across the TX PH this afternoon with possible upscale
growth into one or more MCS`s by evening. This activity will likely
slide southeast into the Red River Valley by Thursday morning with
an outflow boundary/cold front extending west across the TX S.
Plains or Permian Basin. It is yet to be known how far south this
front will push, but more showers and thunderstorms are expected to
form along this boundary Thursday afternoon. Heavy rain will be the
main threat with rich low level moisture already in place and PWATS
>1.5". High temperatures Thursday afternoon will depend on how far
south and west the front makes it. 80`s can be expected north of the
boundary with 90`s and 100`s ahead of it. Temperatures fall 5-10
degrees below seasonal norms Friday as the front gets a better
push south. This will keep most of the shower and thunderstorm
activity mainly along and south of the I-10 corridor.

Enjoy the brief relief from the heat as the upper ridge to our west
strengthens this weekend and centers itself overhead. Afternoon
highs will reach well into the 90`s and 100`s beginning Saturday and
lasting into much of next week. Mid level temps warm as subsidence
increases so expect rain chances to be confined mainly to the
Davis Mountains remaining isolated at best.





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