Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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979
FXUS64 KMAF 131125
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
625 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with isolated afternoon storms expected primarily west of CNM...
PEQ... and FST. Light and variable wind this morning will pick up
out of the SE during the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure will put an end to rain chances for the
next couple of days. An upper trough currently over western
Arizona will move northeast into the northern Rockies by tomorrow,
then will move back southeast into the central plains by the
weekend. The trough will not only weaken the ridge and slow our
warming trend the next few days, it will also bring a chance for
showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night as we catch the
tail end of the system. The best rain chances will be in
southeastern New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin which will
be closest to the upper trough.

A weak cold front associated with the trough will drop into the
southern plains but should remain north of the CWA. The European
and Canadian models are most aggressive with the front not only
pushing it to the Permian Basin, but also indicating a weak shear
axis aloft that combined with the front would cause scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday and Monday. While it
is possible we could see another increase in convection at that
time, am wary about getting too enthusiastic about rain chances at
this time and will leave PoPs just below 15 percent for now. An
expected increase in cloud cover and weaker subsidence however
should at least bring about slightly lower temperatures early next
week.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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