Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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357
FXUS64 KMAF 211122
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
522 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to include fog into the Upper Trans Pecos and northwest
Permian Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Low level moisture continues to spread northwestward into the area
this morning, with patchy fog resulting due to lowering temperature/
dewpoint spread.  A few locations will have visibility drop to 1/4
mile, but this dense fog will not be widespread enough for a Dense
Fog Advisory.  Will update the forecast to add fog further west into
the Upper Trans Pecos, and northwestward into the northwest Permian
Basin.  Think the fog/low cloud deck will begin to lift around
21/16Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

IFR ceilings will affect KMAF this morning through at least 21/16Z,
along with MVFR/IFR visibilities in fog.  Satellite trends
indicate KINK and KPEQ may also be affected by IFR ceiling/
visibility during this time.  It appears no other terminals will
be affected.  Expect VFR conditions by 21/17Z at all area
terminals, but IFR ceilings will likely affect all area TAF sites
in the 22/02Z to 22/06Z time frame and after.  Thunderstorms will
be possible tonight, especially at KMAF, but will forego inclusion
this issuance since any storms are expected to occur near the end
of the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
southern California will be the main feature of interest the
next couple of days. This system will approach the forecast area
tonight and Saturday allowing an anomalous late season increase in
low level moisture surge northwestward from the western Gulf of
Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence associated
with the upper system should act on a unstable atmosphere and
allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing eastward moving
cold front late tonight and Saturday. The best chance of thunderstorms
(good chance to likely) will be across the eastern Permian Basin.
This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture for the
longest period of time. Some of these storms could be strong,
producing hail, in the eastern Permian Basin, given elevated capes
of over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse rates, cold air
aloft and strong shear expected. Precipitation chances will begin
to decrease Saturday afternoon as the system pushes east toward
west central Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday. Strong
mid level flow will be capable of producing high winds in the
mountains particularly across the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet
Sunday and or Monday. Later shifts will need to monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  52  66  45  /   0  30  40   0
BIG SPRING TX              69  55  67  46  /   0  50  70  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  43  72  44  /   0  20  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  73  55  75  48  /   0  20  30   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  49  71  49  /   0  20  30   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  43  60  41  /   0  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   66  50  66  42  /   0  20  30   0
MARFA TX                   68  37  63  33  /   0  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  54  67  46  /   0  30  50   0
ODESSA TX                  68  52  68  46  /   0  30  50   0
WINK TX                    72  51  71  44  /   0  20  30   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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