Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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399
FXUS64 KMAF 230928
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
428 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

SKC skies and light winds have promoted efficient radiational
cooling this AM, resulting in saturated sfc conditions over much
of the area. As such, LIFR-MVFR conditions will prevail at some
terminals for a few hours this morning, especially SE NM. Buffer
soundings suggest stratus/fog scattering out around noon, followed
by a cu field, w/bases 4-5 kft agl. Redevelopment will be possible
at KINK near the end of the forecast period, but we`ll keep
conditions VFR there for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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