Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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889
FXUS64 KMAF 261925
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
225 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Ely mid level flow continues across the area (12Z MAF sounding)
with subtropical ridge centered INVOF central NM. Only shot for
isold shra/tsra today is in/around the Davis Mtns with water
showing drying/subsidence across the CWFA. As early as Sun PM the
ridge will start build to the nw. 85h temps will still be warm
U20s-N30C and so high temps will still be around 100. NAM12 is
again optimistically developing precip from Davis-GDP Mtns Sun PM.
Grids already have isold PoPs and will make no change to that. 85h
temps do trend down about 1C Mon, but 5h heights of 595 dam
indicate it will still be hot. A surface boundary still looks to
straddle the nrn CWFA Mon PM and may serve as a focus for tstms
for the nrn tier. NAM12 continues with the "wettest" trend among
the models. Dwpnts will be hier in wake of boundary and instability
is better there too. This with daytime may result in tstms INVOF
boundary. Needless to say boundary position will be final determinant.
We still have isold/slght chc PoPs across the far n and will make
little change for now. Tue there is a shrtwv trof in the nw flow
however NAM12 is outlier being farther s across the S Plains. As
such it develops precip farthest s. There is a general consensus
that a nw-se axis of precip that is favored and it catches n-ne
CWFA. Only changes that we will make is to bring isold PoPS just
a little father s. 85h temps will have cooled to N25C across PB,
still U20S C across the sw-w. A broad sfc low will develop SE-E
NM Wed and a low level thermal ridge will build along the sfc trof
axis, thus hotter on Wed. ECMWF continues to be quickest with
fropa Thur. A front and nw mid level flow should be a good combo
for precip, but timing issues are yet resolved. Will trend PoPs up
some and farther s Thur-Fri. The wetter 00Z/12Z GFS make more sense
than drier ECMWF as the nw flow aloft persist, but will be dependent
on theta-e ridge, shrtwv trof/s, etc.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  97  73  93  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              76 101  75  92  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70 100  74  97  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77 104  77 100  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  98  72  97  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   70  97  70  93  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   62  90  63  87  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  99  73  96  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  76  98  74  96  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    73 100  73  98  /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.

&&

$$

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