Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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025
FXUS64 KMAF 061057
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
457 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2015

.UPDATE...

Update to add low clouds and freezing fog to portions of the
forecast area, and send the latest Aviation Discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Low clouds and fog continue to develop along and east of the
Guadalupe, Apache and Davis Mountains early this morning, and
spread northeastward.  A few locations will see visibility drop to
around 1/4 mile at times, but the extent of the fog coverage does
not warrant a Dense Fog Advisory.  Will instead utilize social
media posts to alert residents in these areas.  Since temperatures
are well below freezing, freezing fog will likely allow a thin
layer of ice to form on vehicles and other raised surfaces.  An
updated forecast will follow shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low clouds and fog continue to develop just east of the higher
terrain over southeast New Mexico and west Texas early this
morning, and drift north and east.  Therefore have included
temporary IFR ceilings and MVFR visibility in fog at KCNM, KPEQ
and KINK.  By 06/15Z, or shortly thereafter, expect the low
clouds and fog to lift with VFR conditions prevailing areawide
thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2015/

Sprawling cold surface high pressure centered from the southern
plains to the Mississippi and Ohio Valley will be the main weather
feature through Saturday. Temperatures should continue to slowly
warm both days as the surface high modifies and continues to push
east away from the area. Temperatures however should still remain
well below normal given the lack of surface trough development
expected.

The next southern stream upper level storm system currently off
the coast of Baja will impact the forecast area from Saturday
night through Monday. Forcing with the upper level trough combined
with low level convergence from a reflected surface inverted
trough will produce a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
these periods, with the best chance across west Texas. Temperatures
should continue to warm with the development of the inverted surface
trough but still remain below normal with considerable clouds
expected.

Behind this system a large but much weaker upper level trough will
develop and remain nearly stationary over the forecast area from
Monday night through next Friday. Most of the precipitation
with this trough should remain east of the  forecast area, east
of the trough axis and near the surface reflection in the Gulf
of Mexico and the Gulf Coast states. Temperatures are expected
to continue to warm but remain at or below normal Tuesday
and Wednesday but climb to at or above normal by next Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 50  28  52  34  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              52  30  53  37  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                51  27  52  30  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  54  33  60  41  /   0   0   0  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           56  31  54  41  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          48  30  50  36  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   49  26  51  31  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   56  24  56  36  /   0   0  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  29  54  35  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  50  30  54  37  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    56  29  55  37  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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