Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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384
FXUS64 KMAF 201105
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
455 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of low ceilings and fog will continue through the morning
hours.  HOB and MAF will be the last to improve with low ceilings
and visibilities possibly past 18z.  There is some uncertainty
whether or not the fog and low ceilings will reach CNM, INK, PEQ,
and FST.  Low ceilings and visibilities are again possible after 00z
with MAF and INK being the most likely terminals to experience these
conditions. Winds will remain light through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A chilly surface ridge jutting southwestward into the region is
contributing to low cloud and fog development over eastern portions
of the forecast area this morning.  This as surface temperatures
cool to near current dewpoints, especially along and west of the
western fringe of a low cloud deck.  Hobbs, Andrews and Midland
have been reporting 1/4 statute miles in fog for a couple of hours,
with satellite imagery indicating other locations devoid of
observational data likely experiencing patchy dense fog.  Since low
clouds are not aggressively developing westward, and saturation of
the lower levels of the atmosphere will continue, will issue a Dense
Fog Advisory from Eddy and Lea Counties, southeastward across the
central Permian Basin until 20/17Z.  Some counties which will be
included in the advisory may see only patchy, or transient dense
fog.  Think it is more prudent to include these counties than have
to expand the advisory later.

Broad upper troughiness will prevail over the region today into
Sunday as a couple of innocuous shortwave troughs pass over, or
north of, the forecast area.  There will be little chance of rain
under this regime while temperatures gradually rise to around 15
degrees above normal Monday afternoon.  A more significant ua trough
digging south through the central/southern Rockies Monday will
contribute to this warming as westerly, downslope surface winds
increase over the area Sunday, and even moreso Monday.  High winds
will be possible in the the Guadalupe Mountains Monday as the ua
trough approaches, and Monday night as the ua trough moves over the
region.  For now, will mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

A cold front will crash south through the region Monday night and
Tuesday which will knock temperatures near to slightly below normal.
The resident time of the attendant surface ridge over the region
will be fairly short-lived as northwest flow aloft over the area
Wednesday becomes westerly on Christmas Day and will likely result
in high temperatures in the 60s and 70s for everyone.  The mild
temperatures will come crashing down again the day after Christmas,
or on Saturday if some of the slower models pan out.  One thing
seems fairly certain, there will not be much chance of precipitation
throughout the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM MST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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