Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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447
FXUS64 KMAF 150837
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
337 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Subtropical ridge axis will be far enough w today so that a slow
moving shrtwv trof will have a chance to drop sewd in the nw flow
aloft. This will also allow for the mid level theta-e ridge axis
to move ewd and is expected to stretch from SW NM into TX Panhandle.
As such PoPs will be favored in close proximity to said features.
NAM12 sounding at CNM shows high based convection with gusty winds
a concern. NAM/ECMWF is "wetter" than GFS and will opt side a
little closer to METMOS with high end slight chc/low end chc PoPs
across the w-nw. Temperatures still be above normal today, but if
convection forms early enough it will be a little cooler across SE
NM/Upper Trans Pecos. We will opt to keep lingering slght chc PoPs
into the night as well. Pattern continues to play out Saturday
with said mid level theta-e ridge/weakness in height field slowly
drifting sewd and NAM12 staying in convective mode with generous
QPF. Based on the pattern it does make some sense for precip to
be generated. There could be outflow boundaries from Friday`s
storms that serve as focus? Should be better coverage of SHRA/TSRA
across the mtns on Saturday and just a little cooler too. On
Sunday NAM/ECMWF keep said mid level theta-e ridge across the e-s
CWFA while GFS pushes it just out of the CWFA. Mid level flow will
mostly be from the NE by Sunday and will orient the PoPs closer to
consensus theta-e ridge position with temperatures steady to just
slightly cooler. Models diverge thereafter with ECMWF remaining
more moist with a prominent weakness evident in height field through
Friday. Not so sure about this, but there is general agreement in
GEFS/NAFES that a western US trof will persist. Hard to say what
this means for us, but again ECMWF is optimistically cooler/wetter.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 98  71  94  72  /  10  20  30  30
BIG SPRING TX             102  76  95  76  /  10  10  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                97  72  96  71  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                 104  79  98  78  /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  74  96  74  /  10  20  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          88  69  88  68  /  20  20  40  40
HOBBS NM                   96  68  94  68  /  20  20  30  30
MARFA TX                   88  63  86  62  /  10  20  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   100  75  96  75  /  10  20  30  30
ODESSA TX                  98  76  95  75  /  10  20  30  30
WINK TX                    99  74  98  74  /  10  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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