Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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325
FXUS64 KMAF 121814 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
114 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12/1800Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A messy and complicated forecast! In simple terms, expect at the
best IFR conditions at all area terminals through 13/18Z. A cold
front extends along I-20 at press time and this front will
translate southward during the afternoon and evening. A tight
pressure gradient behind this front will result in gusty north to
northwest winds, with northeast winds most pronounced through
Guadalupe Pass. GA interests are urged to keep abreast of changes
and be aware of low-level turbulence INVOF Guadalupe Pass this
afternoon and evening. Winds will lie down late this evening, but
IFR conditions will prevail.

Moist warm air advection/moist isentropic upglide (at least 1 1/2
S.D. above the mean for the middle of September) will mean
occasional rain/rain showers through at least mid evening. Weak
shortwave troughs embedded within this wet subtropical fetch may
cool the column aloft just enough to support a tall & skinny CAPE
profile. Should we get some acceleration in the -10C/-20C layer
there may be enough inductive ice-ice charging and separation of
charge to gin up a few lightning flashes. We expect a gradual
decrease in precipitation from north to south Saturday.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014/

UPDATE...

Please see a forecast update below.

DISCUSSION...

Just a matter of time before the southward-plunging cold front
intersects what looks to me to be something akin to a warm front
more or less along of I-20.  QPF seems reasonable and have changed
accordingly, with the highest QPF over the northern Basin to the
western Low Rolling Plains. Threat of heavy rainfall remains and
we will continue to watch and issue warnings or statements as the
situation dictates.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

MVFR, and some IFR, ceilings have formed over the area and are
affecting most TAF sites this morning.  TSRA will be possible and
have included in all TAF sites this morning.  A strong cold front
will move south through area TAF sites in the 12/15Z to 12/19Z time
frame with strong, gusty northerly winds in it`s wake.  Expect MVFR
ceilings and visibilities to occur behind the front due to light to
moderate rain and fog.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The potential for flash flooding will continue today and tonight
across much of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, the Trans Pecos and the Van Horn
Highway 54 Corridor. Warm advection above a weakening surface
front across the central Permian Basin will combine with upper
level disturbances and a secondary cold front to produce numerous
showers and thunderstorms across southeast New Mexico and the
northern and central Permian Basin today. Weak steering flow
aloft and precipitable water in excess of 1.5 inches will enhance
the flash flood potential. The flash flood threat will extend
further south into the southern Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and
Davis Mountains this afternoon and tonight as the stronger
secondary cold front pushes into the very moist air mass
in those areas. Temperatures this afternoon will actually be
falling as the secondary cold front moves through.

More stratiform rain is expected tonight across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico behind the secondary front with warm advection
and upper level divergence continuing. Although rainfall intensity
is expected to be lower tonight due to increased stability,
saturated grounds from rainfall during the day today will will
leave areas in the watch area susceptible to additional flooding.

Below to much below normal temperatures are expected Saturday
through next Monday as cool surface high pressure builds into the
region with widespread cloudiness. Precipitation chances will
remain in the forecast across portions of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico as moisture feeds northward from Mexico and
the eastern Pacific due to tropical activity. A more aggressive
northwestward push of tropical moisture is possible and will need
to be watched for possible upgrade and expansion of precipitation
chances these periods.

Beyond Monday another cold front and upper level trough will keep
the chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast across
most areas next Tuesday and Wednesday with near to below normal
temperatures.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Saturday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Pecos...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

70

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