Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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550
FXUS64 KMAF 041010
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
410 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery depicts an upper low INVOF Bay of Calif with
a subtropical jet having shifted e along with the higher theta-e
air aloft. As such precip potential for areas N of I-20 does
diminish today, in part to more shallow/waning isentropic lift
along I295-300. Some sunshine is possible across SE NM this PM
too with highs mostly in 50s N of I-20. By 12Z this morning the
upper low will be moving e and more substantial thickness cooling
will occur across the Trans Pecos. The position of the upper low
will be favorable for increased upper level divergence with some
redevelopment of the mid/upper level jet too. As such the chance
of precip will increase this PM and this will be accompanied by 7h
temps falling to/below 0C across the Trans Pecos. For trend sake
we note that 00Z/04 NAM12 is earliest and farthest N-NW with
precip. What this will amounts to is that precip will transition
from occurring in the region southerly divergence mid level flow
to colder wrap around precip by 06Z/Mon. Considering 7h temps and
85h-5h thickness there will be the potential for snow from the
Glass Mtns along the Pecos/Brewster Co line swd into the Big Bend
Region. Snow level will be around 6500-7000 ft by/before 12Z Mon.
Glass Mtns peaks are around 6000 ft as are other peak just s of
Alpine, of course higher in the Big Bend`s Chisos Mtns and thus
they more favored for snow. Initial thoughts are that Chisos Mtns
could easily fall into advisory criteria snow of 1-3", higher
above 7000 ft early Mon AM. For now we will is an SPS, additional
highlights possibly issued later today? The Davis/Chinati Mtns are
less favorable according to model consensus, but NAM12 does show
potential for accumulating snow btwn 06Z-09Z/Mon there too. The
E-SE PB will have one last chance for rain Mon AM from the wrap
around precip. Otherwise with some sunshine Mon PM highs of 55-65
are expected. A weak cold front will follow Tue in wake of the
upper low keeping high temps in the 50s N of I-20. Meanwhile
arctic air is building in the Yukon Region and will start its
move swd arriving in PB/SE NM probably before 00Z/Thur, even well
before? With NE winds of 20-25 mph for a several hrs behind the
front temps will fall rapidly with lows mostly in the M20s Thur AM
(mid teens nrn Lea Co) and highs 35-40 Thur PM. High winds will be
possible thru GDP Pass with the cold air. Gradual warming Fri/Sat
and continued dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  38  58  39 /  10  20  30   0
Carlsbad                       49  31  64  38 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         53  47  65  44 /  60  70  30   0
Fort Stockton                  47  39  64  43 /  30  60  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  32  55  37 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                          47  30  60  34 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          44  34  56  31 /  60  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  36  61  39 /  10  20  20   0
Odessa                         49  37  60  38 /  10  20  20   0
Wink                           49  37  64  38 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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