Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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966
FXUS64 KMAF 172238
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
438 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.UPDATE...

Update to add a mix of wintry precipitation to the higher
elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains.  The latest Aviation
Discussion is included too.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Updated forecast to include mention of snow, freezing rain, and
sleet to the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains this
evening.  The current temperature in The Bowl has hit freezing with
precipitation currently falling in and near the Guadalupe Mountains.
High resolution models are showing precipitation lingering across
that area into this evening with the passage of the upper trough
over the area with temperatures falling farther. Precipitation
will be light, so little to no accumulation is expected this
evening across this area.  80

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms could affect KCNM this evening, while ceilings drop to
IFR at the other area terminals.  Ceilings will probably drop to
LIFR or VLIFR later tonight, and fog will likely drop most terminals
to MVFR.  Expect low clouds and fog to linger through much of
Wednesday morning at most sites.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 100 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

Large upper trough extending from the Canadian border well into
Mexico will develop a closed low over the AZ/NM border.  This low
will slowly slide east the next couple of days as a West Coast
trough pushes it along.  This next trough will reach the 4 corners
region by early Friday moving over NM/TX later that day.

A cold front moved through last night. Temps cooler today in post
frontal conditions with increased clouds cover.  Most of the region
expected to stay in the 40s.  Temps start to recover Wednesday as a
westerly wind sweeps across the area pushing highs into the mid 50s
to lower 60s as sunshine returns.  Even warmer Thursday.

Precip chances return today with showers and a few storms today
moving up from the south that will pass to the north this evening.
Should have another shot at rain this weekend.  Have increased pops
across Lea Co and Northern Permian Basin tonight.  Expect most of
the precip to be north of the area by the time temperatures fall
below freezing but went ahead and threw a mention of mixed precip
northwest after midnight as lows of 30-32 expected. There could be a
brief transition time when temps are low enough for the mix to occur.
Precip should be out of the area by sunrise.

It looks windy Friday and Saturday with a gusty west wind due to an
approaching upper trough before the next cold front blows through
early Sunday.  Will have to monitor high wind potential at GDP these
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  58  40  68 /  60  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  62  38  68 /  50  10   0   0
Dryden                         39  64  43  73 /  40  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  62  44  71 /  40  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 31  54  35  55 /  40  10   0   0
Hobbs                          32  56  36  64 /  60  10   0   0
Marfa                          27  58  29  61 /  30   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           34  57  40  67 /  50  10   0   0
Odessa                         34  57  39  65 /  50  10   0   0
Wink                           34  61  37  68 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/72

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