Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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398
FXUS64 KMAF 200526
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area for the next
couple of hours primarily affecting FST.  Low ceilings will likely
move into the area around 10z.  Additional showers and thunderstorms
will remain possible through the day Sunday but probabilities are
too low to mention in the TAFS at this time.  Winds will generally
be out of the south and west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An initial round of showers and thunderstorms has moved into
southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin this
afternoon. Models remain consistent in indicating daytime heating
causing destabilization in the mountains later this afternoon
and another round of convection to develop and move northeast
overnight. Most areas not currently receiving rain will have to
hope this pans out as this will be the best chance for widespread
rainfall.

Drier air begins moving in from the west tomorrow setting up a
weak dryline across the central CWA. Though weak, there should be
enough low level convergence and upper support from the passing
trough to initiate more convection. CAPE values of 1-1.5 KJ/KG
and 0-6km shear values of 30-50kts indicate there will be some
severe potential hence a slight risk from SPC in our eastern
counties. 0-2km shear values are not impressive so the severe
threat will be mainly large hail and strong winds.

A weak cold front will drop into the area behind the departing
upper trough but will bring very little if any cooling. A zonal
upper pattern will bring a series of trough-ridge couplets, thus a
weak upper ridge Tuesday warms temps with another trough
arriving on Wednesday. This trough will be farther north than the
current one giving a stronger westerly flow and more surface dry
air to the western CWA. Upper lift will not be as favorable
but this may be compensated with a sharper dryline and better low
level convergence as several models are showing some storms
developing Wednesday afternoon. Have added a slight chance for
precip to the forecast but conditions are not at all optimal so
will not get hopes up for rain with this system. Another ridge
late in the week brings a return of warmer and drier conditions.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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