Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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208
FXUS64 KMAF 051108
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
608 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings possible at KMAF
between 05/12Z and 05/15Z, VFR conditions are expected throughout
the forecast period.  Thunderstorms will develop over the higher
terrain this afternoon and spread slowly east.  All terminals,
except KMAF, could see TSRA after 06/01Z, but the probability is
too low for any site so will forego inclusion this issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Things are all quiet tonight across most of Texas and NM. That
won`t last too long though as a cold front brings good rain
chances and continued below normal temperatures.

The upper ridge that has given us mostly dry conditions over the
last couple of days continues to flatten and sink into northern
Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms developed Saturday afternoon along
a theta-e axis that has set up from the Big Bend north into NM. We
will see a similar set-up today with showers and storms spreading a
little further east, possibly to near the Pecos River by late
afternoon. Plenty of moisture remains in place so heavy rain and
even some localized flooding will be possible, especially in the
mountains. Similar conditions are expected Monday afternoon.

The focus then shifts to a cold front that will enter the TX
Panhandle tomorrow. Thunderstorms will develop along the front
and propel it south into our area Monday night. A few severe
storms are not out of the question, but instability will remain
limited by the time storms arrive. Heavy rain will be of greater
concern though as PWATs climb to +2SD with storm motions of only
10 to 15 kts. The front will remain in the area both Tuesday and
Wednesday so will keep storm chances fairly high. A flash flood
watch may be needed in upcoming forecasts.

The upper ridge is then forecast to strengthen over the area late
this week. If we see widespread heavy rainfall across the Southern
Plains this week, the ridge may not build as strong as the models
indicate.

Even though today and Monday will be the warmer than we have seen in
over a week, temperatures will stay below normal. By Tuesday and
Wednesday, the cold front will make its way into the region with
widespread clouds and rain. Look for temps to be well below normal
during this period. We dry out and warm back up as the ridge builds
later in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  93  74  94  73  /  10  10  20  50
CARLSBAD NM                    94  72  96  71  /  20  30  40  50
DRYDEN TX                      95  73  93  74  /  20  30  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX               91  70  93  70  /  20  30  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX              85  67  87  66  /  40  50  30  30
HOBBS NM                       90  68  92  66  /  10  10  40  60
MARFA TX                       86  65  86  66  /  60  40  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        92  72  93  72  /  10  10  30  50
ODESSA TX                      92  73  93  72  /  10  10  30  50
WINK TX                        95  72  97  72  /  10  20  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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