Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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243
FXUS64 KMAF 311054
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
554 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. Light
southeast winds will generally increase to 10 to 15 mph and gusty
by mid to late Morning through early this evening before
diminishing again overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
It is a good thing we are heading into September and not July,
with an upper level ridge building over the area we will see
temperatures above normal but not as high as we saw earlier in
August. Of course the upper high will not be allowed to get very
strong thanks to a trough moving into the western states. The
upper high will eliminate rain chances the next couple of days,
but as the high breaks down we will see increasing convection
beginning in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains by midweek. Late in
the week southwesterly flow will increase as the trough moves into
the four corners region and this will push the mountain convection
east into the western and possibly central Permian Basin by early
next week.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10
703
FXUS64 KMAF 310848
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
348 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
It is a good thing we are heading into September and not July,
with an upper level ridge building over the area we will see
temperatures above normal but not as high as we saw earlier in
August. Of course the upper high will not be allowed to get very
strong thanks to a trough moving into the western states. The
upper high will eliminate rain chances the next couple of days,
but as the high breaks down we will see increasing convection
beginning in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains by midweek. Late in
the week southwesterly flow will increase as the trough moves into
the four corners region and this will push the mountain convection
east into the western and possibly central Permian Basin by early
next week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  92  69  94  71  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    94  66  98  67  /   0   0  10   0
DRYDEN TX                      94  70  95  71  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               93  69  95  70  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  67  87  67  /   0   0  10   0
HOBBS NM                       90  66  93  67  /   0   0  10   0
MARFA TX                       88  58  89  60  /   0   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        93  69  93  70  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      92  69  93  70  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                        95  69  96  71  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10
001
FXUS64 KMAF 310447
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. Light
southeast winds will generally increase to 10 to 15 mph and gusty
by mid to late Monday morning through Monday afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 559 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals through tonight
and Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

Not many changes to current forecast, except to lower temps a bit
in the short-term. WV imagery shows an unusual pattern over West
Texas and Southeast new Mexico, w/a clearly defined trough
circulating south thru Texas and cutting into the upper ridge.
This has allowed for mild temperatures, but little in the way of
precip. In fact, this tough is forecast to persist for awhile,
meandering down into south Texas, then crawling up the Gulf Coast
to Louisiana by late week. The upper ridge will make an effort to
re-establish itself over the region, but thicknesses only increase
slightly thru the week. Thus, while temps will remain above normal
thru the extended, they`ll be closer to normal than they have been
of late. The MAV guidance is warmer than the MET, but both NAM and
GFS soundings suggest favoring the lower end of MOS. Under the
ridge, rain chances look slim, except for development invof the
Sacramentos, where the theta-e ridge resides.

Otherwise, the ridge will remain oriented SW-NE into the extended,
w/chances of convection increasing thru next weekend as an upper
trough traverses the upper CONUS, bringing shortwaves thru SW flow
aloft.  Chances really ramp up Monday w/the arrival of a strong
cold front, but that is beyond the reach of this forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/44
024
FXUS64 KMAF 302259
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals through tonight
and Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

Not many changes to current forecast, except to lower temps a bit
in the short-term. WV imagery shows an unusual pattern over West
Texas and Southeast new Mexico, w/a clearly defined trough
circulating south thru Texas and cutting into the upper ridge.
This has allowed for mild temperatures, but little in the way of
precip. In fact, this tough is forecast to persist for awhile,
meandering down into south Texas, then crawling up the Gulf Coast
to Louisiana by late week. The upper ridge will make an effort to
re-establish itself over the region, but thicknesses only increase
slightly thru the week. Thus, while temps will remain above normal
thru the extended, they`ll be closer to normal than they have been
of late. The MAV guidance is warmer than the MET, but both NAM and
GFS soundings suggest favoring the lower end of MOS. Under the
ridge, rain chances look slim, except for development invof the
Sacramentos, where the theta-e ridge resides.

Otherwise, the ridge will remain oriented SW-NE into the extended,
w/chances of convection increasing thru next weekend as an upper
trough traverses the upper CONUS, bringing shortwaves thru SW flow
aloft.  Chances really ramp up Monday w/the arrival of a strong
cold front, but that is beyond the reach of this forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  66  93  67  92  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    60  93  62  96  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      68  94  69  94  /  10   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               66  94  68  95  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              61  88  64  90  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       60  90  64  91  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                       53  87  54  88  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        64  93  67  92  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      67  93  68  92  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                        64  96  68  97  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/44
063
FXUS64 KMAF 301945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to current forecast, except to lower temps a bit
in the short-term.  WV imagery shows an unusual pattern over West
Texas and Southeast new Mexico, w/a clearly defined trough
circulating south thru Texas and cutting into the upper ridge.  This
has allowed for mild temperatures, but little in the way of precip.
In fact, this tough is forecast to persist for awhile, meandering
down into south Texas, then crawling up the Gulf Coast to Louisiana
by late week.  The upper ridge will make an effort to re-establish
itself over the region, but thicknesses only increase slightly thru
the week.  Thus, while temps will remain above normal thru the
extended, they`ll be closer to normal than they have been of late.
The MAV guidance is warmer than the MET, but both NAM and GFS
soundings suggest favoring the lower end of MOS.  Under the ridge,
rain chances look slim, except for development invof the
Sacramentos, where the theta-e ridge resides.

Otherwise, the ridge will remain oriented SW-NE into the extended,
w/chances of convection increasing thru next weekend as an upper
trough traverses the upper CONUS, bringing shortwaves thru SW flow
aloft.  Chances really ramp up Monday w/the arrival of a strong
cold front, but that is beyond the reach of this forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  66  93  67  92  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    60  93  62  96  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      68  94  69  94  /  10   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               66  94  68  95  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              61  88  64  90  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       60  90  64  91  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                       53  87  54  88  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        64  93  67  92  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      67  93  68  92  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                        64  96  68  97  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/44
580
FXUS64 KMAF 301713
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1213 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all TAF sites. Generally light, SE winds under clear
skies expected areawide.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Abundant clouds kept temperatures below normal yesterday, but we
will have no such luck two days in a row as an upper level ridge
builds into the area. Mostly clear skies will allow for highs go
back to near normal today, then increase above normal once again
for the remainder of this week. Unfortunately the upper air
pattern will become stagnant with the ridge remaining over west
Texas and a trough over east Texas keeping our CWA in an area of
subsidence so not only will temperatures be above normal but there
will be little if any rain chances this week as well. An upper
level trough will move into the west coast next weekend breaking
down the upper ridge and allowing temperatures to cool slightly at
that time.

Hennig

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27
256
FXUS64 KMAF 301058
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
558 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours with decreasing
clouds by afternoon through tonight. Light and variable winds
will become generally southeasterly at under 10 mph by mid
morning and continue through this evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Abundant clouds kept temperatures below normal yesterday, but we
will have no such luck two days in a row as an upper level ridge
builds into the area. Mostly clear skies will allow for highs go
back to near normal today, then increase above normal once again
for the remainder of this week. Unfortunately the upper air
pattern will become stagnant with the ridge remaining over west
Texas and a trough over east Texas keeping our CWA in an area of
subsidence so not only will temperatures be above normal but there
will be little if any rain chances this week as well. An upper
level trough will move into the west coast next weekend breaking
down the upper ridge and allowing temperatures to cool slightly at
that time.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10
272
FXUS64 KMAF 300838
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
338 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Abundant clouds kept temperatures below normal yesterday, but we
will have no such luck two days in a row as an upper level ridge
builds into the area. Mostly clear skies will allow for highs go
back to near normal today, then increase above normal once again
for the remainder of this week. Unfortunately the upper air
pattern will become stagnant with the ridge remaining over west
Texas and a trough over east Texas keeping our CWA in an area of
subsidence so not only will temperatures be above normal but there
will be little if any rain chances this week as well. An upper
level trough will move into the west coast next weekend breaking
down the upper ridge and allowing temperatures to cool slightly at
that time.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  92  68  96  70  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    91  65  97  67  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                      94  69  98  70  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               93  68  97  70  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              86  65  91  68  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                       89  64  94  67  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                       86  58  90  59  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        93  68  96  69  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      92  68  96  70  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                        94  68  99  70  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10
545
FXUS64 KMAF 300451
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1151 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours with decreasing
clouds. Light and variable winds overnight will become generally
southeasterly at under 10 mph by mid Sunday morning through Sunday
evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 601 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
mostly be light and variable tonight and will become south to
southeasterly Sunday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Mid-level cloudiness persists across the eastern half of the region
this afternoon and has resulted in a slow warm up so far today
across these areas. Currently seeing temperatures ranging from the
mid and upper 70s east to the mid and upper 80s west as of 2pm CDT.
This is a nice break from the 90s temps we`ve been seeing lately. A
weak MCV will continue to move east across the Permian Basin with
some lingering light showers persisting across eastern zones. This
activity is showing some signs of weakening and think it will
dissipate shortly. On the other hand, if these areas can get a
little more heating as clouds break up, showers could continue into
the evening hours. Otherwise, currently seeing some
heating/destabilization near the mountain region resulting in
rapidly popping cu seen on VIS satellite. Will carry mention
of thunderstorms across these areas through this evening as well.

Upper ridging remains anchored over the Desert SW today and looks to
remain there heading into the upcoming work week. Skies will begin
to clear tonight and temperatures will climb back into the 90s
most places Sunday. The warming trend will continue Monday with
above normal highs expected through the work week. Not seeing much
in the way of precip through mid/late week with no signs of any
surface features and continued subsidence thanks to the upper
ridge. Toward the end of the week, the upper ridge will slide east
and build NE through the Central/Southern Plains while a lee
surface trough extend south through western portions of the
region. Could see an uptick in rain chances, particularly for SE
NM and western portions of W TX being on the western periphery of
the upper ridge and invof the surface trough. Will continue to
carry some slight chance PoPs Thursday through next weekend across
these areas. Model guidance suggest a slight cooling of 850 mb
temps next weekend and may trend highs a degree or two cooler for
now.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

$$

67/27
352
FXUS64 KMAF 292301
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
mostly be light and variable tonight and will become south to southeasterly
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Mid-level cloudiness persists across the eastern half of the region
this afternoon and has resulted in a slow warm up so far today
across these areas. Currently seeing temperatures ranging from the
mid and upper 70s east to the mid and upper 80s west as of 2pm CDT.
This is a nice break from the 90s temps we`ve been seeing lately. A
weak MCV will continue to move east across the Permian Basin with
some lingering light showers persisting across eastern zones. This
activity is showing some signs of weakening and think it will
dissipate shortly. On the other hand, if these areas can get a
little more heating as clouds break up, showers could continue into
the evening hours. Otherwise, currently seeing some
heating/destabilization near the mountain region resulting in
rapidly popping cu seen on VIS satellite. Will carry mention
of thunderstorms across these areas through this evening as well.

Upper ridging remains anchored over the Desert SW today and looks to
remain there heading into the upcoming work week. Skies will begin
to clear tonight and temperatures will climb back into the 90s
most places Sunday. The warming trend will continue Monday with
above normal highs expected through the work week. Not seeing much
in the way of precip through mid/late week with no signs of any
surface features and continued subsidence thanks to the upper
ridge. Toward the end of the week, the upper ridge will slide east
and build NE through the Central/Southern Plains while a lee
surface trough extend south through western portions of the
region. Could see an uptick in rain chances, particularly for SE
NM and western portions of W TX being on the western periphery of
the upper ridge and invof the surface trough. Will continue to
carry some slight chance PoPs Thursday through next weekend across
these areas. Model guidance suggest a slight cooling of 850 mb
temps next weekend and may trend highs a degree or two cooler for
now.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
015
FXUS64 KMAF 291949
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Mid-level cloudiness persists across the eastern half of the region
this afternoon and has resulted in a slow warm up so far today
across these areas. Currently seeing temperatures ranging from the
mid and upper 70s east to the mid and upper 80s west as of 2pm CDT.
This is a nice break from the 90s temps we`ve been seeing lately. A
weak MCV will continue to move east across the Permian Basin with
some lingering light showers persisting across eastern zones. This
activity is showing some signs of weakening and think it will
dissipate shortly. On the other hand, if these areas can get a
little more heating as clouds break up, showers could continue into
the evening hours. Otherwise, currently seeing some
heating/destabilization near the mountain region resulting in
rapidly popping cu seen on VIS satellite. Will carry mention
of thunderstorms across these areas through this evening as well.

Upper ridging remains anchored over the Desert SW today and looks to
remain there heading into the upcoming work week. Skies will begin
to clear tonight and temperatures will climb back into the 90s
most places Sunday. The warming trend will continue Monday with
above normal highs expected through the work week. Not seeing much
in the way of precip through mid/late week with no signs of any
surface features and continued subsidence thanks to the upper
ridge. Toward the end of the week, the upper ridge will slide east
and build NE through the Central/Southern Plains while a lee
surface trough extend south through western portions of the
region. Could see an uptick in rain chances, particularly for SE
NM and western portions of W TX being on the western periphery of
the upper ridge and invof the surface trough. Will continue to
carry some slight chance PoPs Thursday through next weekend across
these areas. Model guidance suggest a slight cooling of 850 mb
temps next weekend and may trend highs a degree or two cooler for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  66  93  67  96  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    66  93  65  97  /  20   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                      72  97  71  99  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               67  94  67  97  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              64  85  65  89  /  20   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                       63  92  63  93  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                       57  86  55  88  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        67  94  67  97  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      68  93  67  96  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                        67  96  67  98  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/27
886
FXUS64 KMAF 291721
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR expected areawide through tonight.  Lingering showers from
last nights convection should be ending with a few afternoon
storms possible near KCNM.  A boundary moved through last night
with wind at some locations becoming northerly but this should
slowly veer around to the south by evening.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
627
FXUS64 KMAF 291116
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS have dissipated this morning and while more will develop this
afternoon, they should be west of the TAF sites and will not be
included with this issuance. VFR conditions and light southeast or
occasionally variable winds are expected the next 24 hours.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Surface trough currently along a Snyder, Midland, Fort Stockton
line will weaken today but continue to generate the threat of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The best chance will be
northwest of the trough across the Guadalupe Mountains, Southeast
New Mexico Plains and Upper Trans Pecos region of west Texas where
cooler air aloft, upslope flow and terrain effects will be maximized.
Thick cloud cover will keep high temperatures below guidance.
Activity should weaken rapidly this evening with loss of heating
and trough washing out.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
fairly quiet due to the forecast area residing underneath a
decent ridge and on the western subsident side of a weak western
moving upper level low pressure system in the Mississippi Valley
to the western Gulf Coast. The exception to the quiet will be in
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. In these areas very intense
heating along a persistent surface trough along the eastern slopes
of the mountains and upslope flow will keep the threat of mainly
diurnally driven thunderstorms in the forecast in these areas.

Beyond Wednesday through the end of next week intense heating and
upslope flow will keep the chance of thunderstorms continuing in
the mountains. The threat of thunderstorms will also extend
eastward to include the southeast New Mexico plains and Trans
Pecos due to an anticipated slight eastward shift in the position
of the surface trough.

High temperatures will be above normal next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10
633
FXUS64 KMAF 290822
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
322 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Surface trough currently along a Snyder, Midland, Fort Stockton
line will weaken today but continue to generate the threat of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The best chance will be
northwest of the trough across the Guadalupe Mountains, Southeast
New Mexico Plains and Upper Trans Pecos region of west Texas where
cooler air aloft, upslope flow and terrain effects will be maximized.
Thick cloud cover will keep high temperatures below guidance.
Activity should weaken rapidly this evening with loss of heating
and trough washing out.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
fairly quiet due to the forecast area residing underneath a
decent ridge and on the western subsident side of a weak western
moving upper level low pressure system in the Mississippi Valley
to the western Gulf Coast. The exception to the quiet will be in
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. In these areas very intense
heating along a persistent surface trough along the eastern slopes
of the mountains and upslope flow will keep the threat of mainly
diurnally driven thunderstorms in the forecast in these areas.

Beyond Wednesday through the end of next week intense heating and
upslope flow will keep the chance of thunderstorms continuing in
the mountains. The threat of thunderstorms will also extend
eastward to include the southeast New Mexico plains and Trans
Pecos due to an anticipated slight eastward shift in the position
of the surface trough.

High temperatures will be above normal next week.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  89  69  95  69  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    90  67  93  65  /  30  10   0  10
DRYDEN TX                      96  72  98  71  /   0  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               92  69  94  69  /  10  10   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              85  66  86  65  /  40  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       88  65  90  65  /  20  10   0   0
MARFA TX                       83  56  85  55  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        91  69  94  69  /  10  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                      90  70  93  70  /  10  10   0  10
WINK TX                        93  68  97  70  /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12
182
FXUS64 KMAF 290542
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1242 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Storm intensity and lightning is diminishing across the area
tonight though showers will persist the next several hours in
southeast New Mexico and the western Permian Basin. VFR conditions
will persist the next 24 hours. Light winds will generally be from
the south, but outflow boundaries could cause sudden and erratic
changes in wind direction through at least 12Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 141 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The current pattern, which looks to stick around for at least
another week, offers little in the way of widespread precipitation
and keeps temperatures above normal.

An upper ridge to our west will continue to dominate our weather
with little fluctuations expected in its position. With weak low
level features, we did not see much in the way of showers or clouds
yesterday. This afternoon and evening, a surface trough along with an
area of higher theta-e resides across northwest portions of the
forecast area. These features along with strong daytime heating will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southeast
NM and the northwest Permian Basin have the best chance of seeing
any rain. Gusty winds will be possible in and near these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer.

Not much will change Saturday with the surface trough and theta-e
axis still lingering over the same areas. However...mid level
temperatures cool a bit so expect to see afternoon highs closer to
normal tomorrow. The next several mornings look cool and comfortable
as dew points each morning drop into the 40s and 50s.

By next week, the ridge will stay anchored to our west while an
upper low develops over East Texas and stalls. Between these two
features we should see mainly dry conditions continue with
temperatures several degrees above normal.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10
113
FXUS64 KMAF 282306
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
606 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through 04z for most
terminals. There may be some isolated MVFR conditions in the
heavier storm cores; otherwise, VFR conditions are mostly
expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will become variable this
evening, with some gusts near the storms, and will mostly be out
of the east to southeast tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 141 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The current pattern, which looks to stick around for at least
another week, offers little in the way of widespread precipitation
and keeps temperatures above normal.

An upper ridge to our west will continue to dominate our weather
with little fluctuations expected in its position. With weak low
level features, we did not see much in the way of showers or clouds
yesterday. This afternoon and evening, a surface trough along with an
area of higher theta-e resides across northwest portions of the
forecast area. These features along with strong daytime heating will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southeast
NM and the northwest Permian Basin have the best chance of seeing
any rain. Gusty winds will be possible in and near these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer.

Not much will change Saturday with the surface trough and theta-e
axis still lingering over the same areas. However...mid level
temperatures cool a bit so expect to see afternoon highs closer to
normal tomorrow. The next several mornings look cool and comfortable
as dew points each morning drop into the 40s and 50s.

By next week, the ridge will stay anchored to our west while an
upper low develops over East Texas and stalls. Between these two
features we should see mainly dry conditions continue with
temperatures several degrees above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
024
FXUS64 KMAF 281841
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
141 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The current pattern, which looks to stick around for at least
another week, offers little in the way of widespread precipitation
and keeps temperatures above normal.

An upper ridge to our west will continue to dominate our weather
with little fluctuations expected in its position. With weak low
level features, we did not see much in the way of showers or clouds
yesterday. This afternoon and evening, a surface trough along with an
area of higher theta-e resides across northwest portions of the
forecast area. These features along with strong daytime heating will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southeast
NM and the northwest Permian Basin have the best chance of seeing
any rain. Gusty winds will be possible in and near these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer.

Not much will change Saturday with the surface trough and theta-e
axis still lingering over the same areas. However...mid level
temperatures cool a bit so expect to see afternoon highs closer to
normal tomorrow. The next several mornings look cool and comfortable
as dew points each morning drop into the 40s and 50s.

By next week, the ridge will stay anchored to our west while an
upper low develops over East Texas and stalls. Between these two
features we should see mainly dry conditions continue with
temperatures several degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  71  90  69  95  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    69  93  67  95  /  30  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      71 101  72 101  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               71  95  69  97  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              66  83  66  87  /  40  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       66  88  65  92  /  30  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       56  85  56  88  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  94  69  96  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      72  93  70  95  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                        72  96  68  98  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/29
944
FXUS64 KMAF 281724
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. May see some
afternoon storms especially near CNM and HOB. Wind will remain
southerly at most locations.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Very intense heating along and north of a stalled surface trough
from the northern Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos Region of
west Texas will ignite isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
this afternoon and this evening. The best chance will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains where
cooler air aloft and greater instability will reside. Brief
strong winds will be the greatest concern in thunderstorms given
a large temperature/dew point spread expected late this afternoon
and early this evening. Despite considerable clouds expected, high
temperatures today will remain above normal.

For Saturday the stalled surface trough is expected to weaken
so areal coverage of storms is expected to diminish considerably
with activity ending by early Saturday evening.

The forecast for Sunday through the end of next week looks
on the quiet and persistent side due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley to the
Gulf Coast. The exception will be the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains and the plains immediately adjacent to them. In these
areas very intense heating along a surface trough will keep the
threat of mainly diurnally driven storms in the forecast. High
temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
133
FXUS64 KMAF 281128
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Mid level cumulus
will develop this afternoon with -SHRA/TS possible at most TAF
sites though only confident to make mention at CNM and HOB at this
time. Convection will be more isolated south and east of New
Mexico. TS will dissipate by 06Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Very intense heating along and north of a stalled surface trough
from the northern Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos Region of
west Texas will ignite isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
this afternoon and this evening. The best chance will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains where
cooler air aloft and greater instability will reside. Brief
strong winds will be the greatest concern in thunderstorms given
a large temperature/dew point spread expected late this afternoon
and early this evening. Despite considerable clouds expected, high
temperatures today will remain above normal.

For Saturday the stalled surface trough is expected to weaken
so areal coverage of storms is expected to diminish considerably
with activity ending by early Saturday evening.

The forecast for Sunday through the end of next week looks
on the quiet and persistent side due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley to the
Gulf Coast. The exception will be the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains and the plains immediately adjacent to them. In these
areas very intense heating along a surface trough will keep the
threat of mainly diurnally driven storms in the forecast. High
temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10
979
FXUS64 KMAF 280827
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
327 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Very intense heating along and north of a stalled surface trough
from the northern Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos Region of
west Texas will ignite isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
this afternoon and this evening. The best chance will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains where
cooler air aloft and greater instability will reside. Brief
strong winds will be the greatest concern in thunderstorms given
a large temperature/dew point spread expected late this afternoon
and early this evening. Despite considerable clouds expected, high
temperatures today will remain above normal.

For Saturday the stalled surface trough is expected to weaken
so areal coverage of storms is expected to diminish considerably
with activity ending by early Saturday evening.

The forecast for Sunday through the end of next week looks
on the quiet and persistent side due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley to the
Gulf Coast. The exception will be the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains and the plains immediately adjacent to them. In these
areas very intense heating along a surface trough will keep the
threat of mainly diurnally driven storms in the forecast. High
temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  96  70  95  71  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    95  70  94  65  /  30  30  20  10
DRYDEN TX                     100  72 100  72  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               99  70  94  69  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              85  66  88  66  /  20  30  20  10
HOBBS NM                       91  66  90  64  /  20  30  10  10
MARFA TX                       89  59  85  57  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        96  71  95  68  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      96  72  94  70  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                       100  69  97  68  /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12
254
FXUS64 KMAF 280526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions this TAF period. A trough will cause TS to develop
mainly in southeast NM Friday afternoon affecting CNM/HOB 18-00Z.
TS could develop farther south but will leave out of other TAF
sites for now.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change from previous forecasts. Hot tomorrow with a few
locations across the upper Trans Pecos topping triple digits.  A
short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern
High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The
associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak
cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South
Plains by max heating tomorrow. Convergence along this boundary
along with a bit of instability will warrant isolated to scattered
TSRA Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Working against this
is a slug of dry tropospheric air mixing down and lowering surface
moisture, thus limiting PoPs closest to and north of the boundary.
This boundary is expected to dissipate as strong sensible heating
acts frontolytically Saturday. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge
will become pinched between a sharp long wave trough developing
off the NOAM west coast. Lowered thicknesses will keep
temperatures to just a few degrees above normal. With the mid-
tropospheric theta-e ridge aligned over the mountains, isolated
TSRA can be expected there. Elsewhere dry conditions are forecast
until late in the extended as a TUTT low approaches the region.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10
273
FXUS64 KMAF 272235
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
535 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings suggest a cu field developing by late Fri morning
everywhere but KMAF, w/bases 6-7 kft agl. Best chances for
convection will be KCNM near the end of the forecast period as an
upper-lvl trough enters SE NM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change from previous forecasts. Hot tomorrow with a few
locations across the upper Trans Pecos topping triple digits.  A
short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern
High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The
associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak
cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South
Plains by max heating tomorrow. Convergence along this boundary
along with a bit of instability will warrant isolated to scattered
TSRA Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Working against this
is a slug of dry tropospheric air mixing down and lowering surface
moisture, thus limiting PoPs closest to and north of the boundary.
This boundary is expected to dissipate as strong sensible heating
acts frontolytically Saturday. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge
will become pinched between a sharp long wave trough developing
off the NOAM west coast. Lowered thicknesses will keep
temperatures to just a few degrees above normal. With the mid-
tropospheric theta-e ridge aligned over the mountains, isolated
TSRA can be expected there. Elsewhere dry conditions are forecast
until late in the extended as a TUTT low approaches the region.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
417
FXUS64 KMAF 272108
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
408 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change from previous forecasts. Hot tomorrow with a few
locations across the upper Trans Pecos topping triple digits.  A
short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern
High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The
associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak
cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South
Plains by max heating tomorrow. Convergence along this boundary
along with a bit of instability will warrant isolated to scattered
TSRA Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Working against this
is a slug of dry tropospheric air mixing down and lowering surface
moisture, thus limiting PoPs closest to and north of the boundary.
This boundary is expected to dissipate as strong sensible heating
acts frontolytically Saturday. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge
will become pinched between a sharp long wave trough developing
off the NOAM west coast. Lowered thicknesses will keep
temperatures to just a few degrees above normal. With the mid-
tropospheric theta-e ridge aligned over the mountains, isolated
TSRA can be expected there. Elsewhere dry conditions are forecast
until late in the extended as a TUTT low approaches the region.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  71  97  70  96  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    69  96  70  95  /  10  30  30  20
DRYDEN TX                      73 102  72 100  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  99  70  97  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  89  66  88  /  10  20  30  20
HOBBS NM                       67  92  66  91  /  10  20  30  10
MARFA TX                       57  89  59  86  /  10  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  99  71  98  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      73  99  72  96  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                        72 100  69  99  /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/70
904
FXUS64 KMAF 271739
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1239 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites for the next 24
hours.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

Looks like a quiet day as an upper level ridge of high pressure
dominates. The possible exception will be the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains during the afternoon and evening where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible due to upslope flow and intense
heating of the elevated surfaces. High temperatures will continue
to be above normal this afternoon.

For Friday and Saturday a weak frontal boundary is forecast to
track slowly southeast from southeast New Mexico Friday and stall
and weaken across the northern Permian Basin southwest to the
upper Trans Pecos region of southwest Texas Saturday. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms look possible near and northwest of
this line where cooler air aloft will reside. The convective
activity does not appear to have much potential to produce heavy
rainfall with less than impressive surface dew points expected.
Temperatures should remain well above normal both days despite
the boundary with considerable clouds expected.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
mainly quiet due to the forecast area residing on the western
subsident side of a weak western moving upper level low pressure
system from the Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast. The
exception could be the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where
upslope flow and intense heating of the elevated surfaces could
generate isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures are expected
to remain slightly above normal through this period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
864
FXUS64 KMAF 271043
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
543 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

Looks like a quiet day as an upper level ridge of high pressure
dominates. The possible exception will be the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains during the afternoon and evening where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible due to upslope flow and intense
heating of the elevated surfaces. High temperatures will continue
to be above normal this afternoon.

For Friday and Saturday a weak frontal boundary is forecast to
track slowly southeast from southeast New Mexico Friday and stall
and weaken across the northern Permian Basin southwest to the
upper Trans Pecos region of southwest Texas Saturday. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms look possible near and northwest of
this line where cooler air aloft will reside. The convective
activity does not appear to have much potential to produce heavy
rainfall with less than impressive surface dew points expected.
Temperatures should remain well above normal both days despite
the boundary with considerable clouds expected.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
mainly quiet due to the forecast area residing on the western
subsident side of a weak western moving upper level low pressure
system from the Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast. The
exception could be the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where
upslope flow and intense heating of the elevated surfaces could
generate isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures are expected
to remain slightly above normal through this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  94  69  96  69  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    97  67  96  71  /  10  10  20  30
DRYDEN TX                     100  74 102  71  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               97  72  97  70  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  66  88  63  /  10  10  30  30
HOBBS NM                       92  67  91  65  /   0  10  20  30
MARFA TX                       88  56  89  60  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        96  69  97  68  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      95  72  96  69  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                        99  72 100  69  /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
590
FXUS64 KMAF 270810
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
310 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Looks like a quiet day as an upper level ridge of high pressure
dominates. The possible exception will be the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains during the afternoon and evening where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible due to upslope flow and intense
heating of the elevated surfaces. High temperatures will continue
to be above normal this afternoon.

For Friday and Saturday a weak frontal boundary is forecast to
track slowly southeast from southeast New Mexico Friday and stall
and weaken across the northern Permian Basin southwest to the
upper Trans Pecos region of southwest Texas Saturday. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms look possible near and northwest of
this line where cooler air aloft will reside. The convective
activity does not appear to have much potential to produce heavy
rainfall with less than impressive surface dew points expected.
Temperatures should remain well above normal both days despite
the boundary with considerable clouds expected.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
mainly quiet due to the forecast area residing on the western
subsident side of a weak western moving upper level low pressure
system from the Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast. The
exception could be the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where
upslope flow and intense heating of the elevated surfaces could
generate isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures are expected
to remain slightly above normal through this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  94  69  96  69  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    97  67  96  71  /  10  10  20  30
DRYDEN TX                     100  74 102  71  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               97  72  97  70  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  66  88  63  /  10  10  30  30
HOBBS NM                       92  67  91  65  /   0  10  20  30
MARFA TX                       88  56  89  60  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        96  69  97  68  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      95  72  96  69  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                        99  72 100  69  /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
641
FXUS64 KMAF 270429
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1129 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 725 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

Area radars show convection has developed along a boundary
sinking south thru the lwr Trans Pecos, and we`ll do an update to
account for this. We`ll also update other parameters as necessary
based on current obs and short-term models. Updates out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

AVIATION...

Thunderstorm activity this evening is not expected to affect area
terminals, and should gradually weaken after sunset. VFR
conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours with sustained
southeast winds below 12kt.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

At press time, enhanced CU fields are restricted to the Davis
Mountains/Marfa Plateau and southeastern Permian Basin areas of
west Texas. Radar not showing much, although satellite data do
show that some towers got high enough to glaciate. We`ve low order
PoPs in the forecast for the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains after
00Z this evening, so all looks good there. Otherwise look for a
quiet night with near normal temperatures, mostly clear skies, and
light winds.

A developing short wave trough within the monsoon burst over the
intermountain West is forecast to amplify somewhat and top the
seemingly permanent subtropical high over the southern High Plains
tonight and tomorrow. As heights fall over the eastern Gulf of
Alaska, heights begin to build downstream over the midwestern
states, and this along with a gradual deamplification of flow over
the northern Atlantic will serve to dampen the anomalously cold
closed low over eastern QB. As all this is going on, the base of
the mean long wave trough over the eastern CONUS gets calved off
and meanders over the southeastern states. In a nutshell, 1) the
developing short wave trough over the central Rockies proceeds to
amplify further over the northern Midwest and 2) the calved base
of the current long wave trough develops an upper circulation and
begins to retrograde westward. Likely all in response to the
large-scale evolution of future HRCN "Erika" (assuming she doesn`t
croak on dry air first). Surface anticyclogenesis beneath the
northern Midwestern system is expected to force a surface boundary
southwestward.

Okay, so sensible weather effects hereabouts will hinge on how far
the boundary progresses southwest as well as phasing with peak
diurnal heating Friday. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will
likely top the century mark across the Upper Trans Pecos and areas
along the Rio Grande. The models have been trending a bit slower
with the aforementioned boundary, not making it very far over
southeastern New Mexico before diabatic heating north of the
boundary Saturday acts frontolytically. Trying to tie all these
loose ends together, the best chances for PoPs will shift back
toward east central NM eastward across the Texas South Plains
Friday and Friday night, with the bulk of PoPs shifting back
toward the mountains this weekend. Meanwhile, slightly lower
thicknesses associated with the retrograding coastal upper low
will work to keep temperatures below triple digits into the middle
of next week, with 80s in the mountains and 90s elsewhere through
at least next Wednesday. This is good if for no other reason it`ll
be September and we deserve a break, no matter how small.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
321
FXUS64 KMAF 270025
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
725 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show convection has developed along a boundary
sinking south thru the lwr Trans Pecos, and we`ll do an update to
account for this. We`ll also update other parameters as necessary
based on current obs and short-term models. Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorm activity this evening is not expected to affect area
terminals, and should gradually weaken after sunset. VFR
conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours with sustained
southeast winds below 12kt.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

At press time, enhanced CU fields are restricted to the Davis
Mountains/Marfa Plateau and southeastern Permian Basin areas of
west Texas. Radar not showing much, although satellite data do
show that some towers got high enough to glaciate. We`ve low
order PoPs in the forecast for the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains
after 00Z this evening, so all looks good there. Otherwise look
for a quiet night with near normal temperatures, mostly clear
skies, and light winds.

A developing short wave trough within the monsoon burst over the
intermountain West is forecast to amplify somewhat and top the
seemingly permanent subtropical high over the southern High Plains
tonight and tomorrow. As heights fall over the eastern Gulf of
Alaska, heights begin to build downstream over the midwestern
states, and this along with a gradual deamplification of flow over
the northern Atlantic will serve to dampen the anomalously cold
closed low over eastern QB. As all this is going on, the base of
the mean long wave trough over the eastern CONUS gets calved off
and meanders over the southeastern states. In a nutshell, 1) the
developing short wave trough over the central Rockies proceeds to
amplify further over the northern Midwest and 2) the calved base
of the current long wave trough develops an upper circulation and
begins to retrograde westward. Likely all in response to the
large-scale evolution of future HRCN "Erika" (assuming she doesn`t
croak on dry air first). Surface anticyclogenesis beneath the
northern Midwestern system is expected to force a surface boundary
southwestward.

Okay, so sensible weather effects hereabouts will hinge on how far
the boundary progresses southwest as well as phasing with peak
diurnal heating Friday. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will
likely top the century mark across the Upper Trans Pecos and areas
along the Rio Grande. The models have been trending a bit slower
with the aforementioned boundary, not making it very far over
southeastern New Mexico before diabatic heating north of the
boundary Saturday acts frontolytically. Trying to tie all these
loose ends together, the best chances for PoPs will shift back
toward east central NM eastward across the Texas South Plains
Friday and Friday night, with the bulk of PoPs shifting back
toward the mountains this weekend. Meanwhile, slightly lower
thicknesses associated with the retrograding coastal upper low
will work to keep temperatures below triple digits into the middle
of next week, with 80s in the mountains and 90s elsewhere through
at least next Wednesday. This is good if for no other reason it`ll
be September and we deserve a break, no matter how small.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  69  96  72  97  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    66  95  69  96  /  10   0  10  20
DRYDEN TX                      75 101  73 102  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  98  72  98  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              69  88  67  89  /  10  10  10  20
HOBBS NM                       64  93  67  93  /   0   0  10  20
MARFA TX                       57  88  58  89  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  99  72  99  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                      71  97  73  98  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                        71 100  72 101  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44
799
FXUS64 KMAF 262344
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorm activity this evening is not expected to affect area
terminals, and should gradually weaken after sunset. VFR
conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours with sustained
southeast winds below 12kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

At press time, enhanced CU fields are restricted to the Davis
Mountains/Marfa Plateau and southeastern Permian Basin areas of
west Texas. Radar not showing much, although satellite data do
show that some towers got high enough to glaciate. We`ve low
order PoPs in the forecast for the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains
after 00Z this evening, so all looks good there. Otherwise look
for a quiet night with near normal temperatures, mostly clear
skies, and light winds.

A developing short wave trough within the monsoon burst over the
intermountain West is forecast to amplify somewhat and top the
seemingly permanent subtropical high over the southern High Plains
tonight and tomorrow. As heights fall over the eastern Gulf of
Alaska, heights begin to build downstream over the midwestern
states, and this along with a gradual deamplification of flow over
the northern Atlantic will serve to dampen the anomalously cold
closed low over eastern QB. As all this is going on, the base of
the mean long wave trough over the eastern CONUS gets calved off
and meanders over the southeastern states. In a nutshell, 1) the
developing short wave trough over the central Rockies proceeds to
amplify further over the northern Midwest and 2) the calved base
of the current long wave trough develops an upper circulation and
begins to retrograde westward. Likely all in response to the
large-scale evolution of future HRCN "Erika" (assuming she doesn`t
croak on dry air first). Surface anticyclogenesis beneath the
northern Midwestern system is expected to force a surface boundary
southwestward.

Okay, so sensible weather effects hereabouts will hinge on how far
the boundary progresses southwest as well as phasing with peak
diurnal heating Friday. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will
likely top the century mark across the Upper Trans Pecos and areas
along the Rio Grande. The models have been trending a bit slower
with the aforementioned boundary, not making it very far over
southeastern New Mexico before diabatic heating north of the
boundary Saturday acts frontolytically. Trying to tie all these
loose ends together, the best chances for PoPs will shift back
toward east central NM eastward across the Texas South Plains
Friday and Friday night, with the bulk of PoPs shifting back
toward the mountains this weekend. Meanwhile, slightly lower
thicknesses associated with the retrograding coastal upper low
will work to keep temperatures below triple digits into the middle
of next week, with 80s in the mountains and 90s elsewhere through
at least next Wednesday. This is good if for no other reason it`ll
be September and we deserve a break, no matter how small.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
870
FXUS64 KMAF 261926
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
226 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

At press time, enhanced CU fields are restricted to the Davis
Mountains/Marfa Plateau and southeastern Permian Basin areas of
west Texas. Radar not showing much, although satellite data do
show that some towers got high enough to glaciate. We`ve low
order PoPs in the forecast for the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains
after 00Z this evening, so all looks good there. Otherwise look
for a quiet night with near normal temperatures, mostly clear
skies, and light winds.

A developing short wave trough within the monsoon burst over the
intermountain West is forecast to amplify somewhat and top the
seemingly permanent subtropical high over the southern High Plains
tonight and tomorrow. As heights fall over the eastern Gulf of
Alaska, heights begin to build downstream over the midwestern
states, and this along with a gradual deamplification of flow over
the northern Atlantic will serve to dampen the anomalously cold
closed low over eastern QB. As all this is going on, the base of
the mean long wave trough over the eastern CONUS gets calved off
and meanders over the southeastern states. In a nutshell, 1) the
developing short wave trough over the central Rockies proceeds to
amplify further over the northern Midwest and 2) the calved base
of the current long wave trough develops an upper circulation and
begins to retrograde westward. Likely all in response to the
large-scale evolution of future HRCN "Erika" (assuming she doesn`t
croak on dry air first). Surface anticyclogenesis beneath the
northern Midwestern system is expected to force a surface boundary
southwestward.

Okay, so sensible weather effects hereabouts will hinge on how far
the boundary progresses southwest as well as phasing with peak
diurnal heating Friday. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will
likely top the century mark across the Upper Trans Pecos and areas
along the Rio Grande. The models have been trending a bit slower
with the aforementioned boundary, not making it very far over
southeastern New Mexico before diabatic heating north of the
boundary Saturday acts frontolytically. Trying to tie all these
loose ends together, the best chances for PoPs will shift back
toward east central NM eastward across the Texas South Plains
Friday and Friday night, with the bulk of PoPs shifting back
toward the mountains this weekend. Meanwhile, slightly lower
thicknesses associated with the retrograding coastal upper low
will work to keep temperatures below triple digits into the middle
of next week, with 80s in the mountains and 90s elsewhere through
at least next Wednesday. This is good if for no other reason it`ll
be September and we deserve a break, no matter how small.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  72  96  72  97  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    68  95  69  96  /  10   0  10  20
DRYDEN TX                      73 101  73 102  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  98  72  98  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  88  67  89  /  10  10  10  20
HOBBS NM                       67  93  67  93  /   0   0  10  20
MARFA TX                       57  88  58  89  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        70  99  72  99  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                      71  97  73  98  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                        71 100  72 101  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/70
137
FXUS64 KMAF 261726
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VRF conditions will prevail the next 24 hours with southeasterly
winds generally between at 5-10 kts. A few scattered
thunderstorms possible for the higher terrain areas, but expected
to stay away from all terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Looks like a couple of quiet weather days through Thursday as an
upper level ridge of high pressure dominates. The possible
exception will be the Guadalupe and or Davis Mountains during the
afternoon and evenings due to upslope flow amidst intense heating
of the elevated surfaces. High temperatures will continue to be
above normal this afternoon and Thursday afternoon.

For Friday a weak boundary is forecast to track southeast from
New Mexico and stall near a Snyder to Midland to Valentine line
by Friday night. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms look
possible northwest of this line Friday afternoon and Friday night
where cooler air aloft will reside. Any Activity does not look to
be very expansive with an upper ridge in the vicinity. Temperatures
should remain well above normal Friday.

Saturday and Sunday look mainly quiet again as the boundary
weakens. There still could be some isolated diurnal storms
in and near the mountains with marginally unstable upslope flow
in place.

Next Monday through Wednesday looks dry due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level disturbance from south Texas. Temperatures early
next week are expected to be slightly above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
173
FXUS64 KMAF 261043
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
543 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals during the
next 24 hours.  Thunderstorms which develop this afternoon and
evening will likely stay south and west of all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Looks like a couple of quiet weather days through Thursday as an
upper level ridge of high pressure dominates. The possible
exception will be the Guadalupe and or Davis Mountains during the
afternoon and evenings due to upslope flow amidst intense heating
of the elevated surfaces. High temperatures will continue to be
above normal this afternoon and Thursday afternoon.

For Friday a weak boundary is forecast to track southeast from
New Mexico and stall near a Snyder to Midland to Valentine line
by Friday night. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms look
possible northwest of this line Friday afternoon and Friday night
where cooler air aloft will reside. Any Activity does not look to
be very expansive with an upper ridge in the vicinity. Temperatures
should remain well above normal Friday.

Saturday and Sunday look mainly quiet again as the boundary
weakens. There still could be some isolated diurnal storms
in and near the mountains with marginally unstable upslope flow
in place.

Next Monday through Wednesday looks dry due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level disturbance from south Texas. Temperatures early
next week are expected to be slightly above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  97  71  97  73  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    96  66  95  69  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                     102  72 101  73  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               96  70  97  72  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              89  66  89  69  /  20  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       94  66  93  66  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       90  58  89  59  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        97  70  98  72  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                      97  71  97  73  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                       100  71 100  72  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
671
FXUS64 KMAF 260815
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
315 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Looks like a couple of quiet weather days through Thursday as an
upper level ridge of high pressure dominates. The possible
exception will be the Guadalupe and or Davis Mountains during the
afternoon and evenings due to upslope flow amidst intense heating
of the elevated surfaces. High temperatures will continue to be
above normal this afternoon and Thursday afternoon.

For Friday a weak boundary is forecast to track southeast from
New Mexico and stall near a Snyder to Midland to Valentine line
by Friday night. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms look
possible northwest of this line Friday afternoon and Friday night
where cooler air aloft will reside. Any Activity does not look to
be very expansive with an upper ridge in the vicinity. Temperatures
should remain well above normal Friday.

Saturday and Sunday look mainly quiet again as the boundary
weakens. There still could be some isolated diurnal storms
in and near the mountains with marginally unstable upslope flow
in place.

Next Monday through Wednesday looks dry due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level disturbance from south Texas. Temperatures early
next week are expected to be slightly above normal.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  97  71  97  73  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    96  66  95  69  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                     102  72 101  73  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               96  70  97  72  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              89  66  89  69  /  20  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       94  66  93  66  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       90  58  89  59  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        97  70  98  72  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                      97  71  97  73  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                       100  71 100  72  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
376
FXUS64 KMAF 260452
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1152 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cluster of thunderstorms moving southwestward over the Permian
Basin should continue to weaken, so will monitor to see whether to
add TSRA to KMAF.  Gusty northeasterly winds will spread across KMAF
ahead of the convection, but winds should die down within an hour or
so.  Otherwise, southeasterly surface winds around 10kt will
accompany VFR conditions areawide during the next 24 hours.  It
appears isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon will likely not
affect any area terminals.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
698
FXUS64 KMAF 260254
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
954 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show a cluster of cells moving SW thru the Wrn Low
Rolling Plains. This should diminish short of Midland. We`ve done
an update to expand areal coverage in the grids to account for
this.  Updates have been sent.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms have remained east of area TAF sites, and are
expected to gradually diminish through the evening. Aside from
perhaps a weak outflow boundary or two affecting KFST or KMAF,
no impacts are expected from these storms. VFR conditions with
generally light southeasterly winds will prevail through the
forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Short-term focus this evening will be on the potential for
isolated thunderstorms over much of west Texas and southeastern
New Mexico. CAMS, and in particular the last several HRRR runs,
cover much of the Permian Basin in freckles until some cold pool
amalgamation promotes a few clusters. Not certain but suspect the
HRRR is resolving updrafts; then again, a look to the east seems
to support a consensus of the last several HRRR runs as well as
the NSSL WRF. Nothing much was resolved over the Guadalupes or
over the northwestern Permian Basin/central and northern Lea
County where a MOGR CU field is seen in satellite imagery. All
this to say that this evening`s PoPs are aligned in such a way to
capture most of what the Mark 0 Mod 1 eyeball is seeing. An
ingredients-based approach yields very little except for the
potential for sub-severe wind gusts should an updraft persist.
Look for convective activity to die off around sunset with loss of
sensible heating and PBL decoupling.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the consensus here is for the upper
ridge to strengthen overhead. This means we can expect a warmup of
around five degrees over climatology, which puts portions of the
Upper Trans Pecos and the Rio Grande valley into triple-digit
heat. Unless you`re fortunate enough to be in the mountains where
highs will be in the 80s, the rest of us will see highs both days
in the mid to upper 90s. Mid-tropospheric drying is trying to
work its way southwestward but is balanced out a bit by recycled
moisture from the current monsoon burst. Thus we`ll maintain low-
order afternoon and evening PoPs for the mountains.

Friday gets a little interesting. A short wave trough forming
from the monsoon burst becomes entrained in the westerlies
Thursday, then amplifies a bit in northwesterly flow aloft over
the Midwest. The NAM looks to be a bit overdeveloped here while
the GFS and SREF maintain a weaker trough. With the understanding
that the SREF, like any ensemble model, is underdispersive and
tends to smooth the edges of the ensemble envelope, this solution
looks to be closer to what we expect reality to look like 84 hours
out. While upper level support will be lacking, modest surface
pressure rises in the wake of the aforementioned short wave
trough will be enough to send a windshift down across the Texas
Panhandle and perhaps become quasi-stationary over the northern
Permian Basin by Friday afternoon. Again, an ingredients-based
approach argues against anything significant; however, diabatic
heating and weak convergence along this boundary should be enough
to gin up isolated TSRA Friday afternoon and evening.

Going into the weekend and next week, temperatures look to
moderate some while cloudiness and afternoon/evening TSRA will
remain confined to the eastern fringes of the monsoon, namely over
far west Texas and the mountains and adjacent plains of
southeastern New Mexico. Out beyond the extended, an expected
shift toward a -PNA regime ought to shift the subtropical high
east of here, while a shift toward lower heights in the north
Atlantic supports carving out an upper level weakness over the
southeastern states. This weakness is then carried down into the
western Gulf where it becomes a TUTT low, then back north into
Texas by next weekend. Rain chances may increase over the region
as a result, but all this could come to naught, too. Will take a
chance of something than no chance at all.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  73  96  72  97  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                    68  95  67  95  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      73 101  73 100  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  95  71  97  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  88  67  89  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       68  93  67  93  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       58  89  59  89  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  96  71  98  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                      72  96  72  97  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                        72  99  72 100  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44
839
FXUS64 KMAF 252331
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
631 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms have remained east of area TAF sites, and are
expected to gradually diminish through the evening. Aside from
perhaps a weak outflow boundary or two affecting KFST or KMAF,
no impacts are expected from these storms. VFR conditions with
generally light southeasterly winds will prevail through the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Short-term focus this evening will be on the potential for
isolated thunderstorms over much of west Texas and southeastern
New Mexico. CAMS, and in particular the last several HRRR runs,
cover much of the Permian Basin in freckles until some cold pool
amalgamation promotes a few clusters. Not certain but suspect the
HRRR is resolving updrafts; then again, a look to the east seems
to support a consensus of the last several HRRR runs as well as
the NSSL WRF. Nothing much was resolved over the Guadalupes or
over the northwestern Permian Basin/central and northern Lea
County where a MOGR CU field is seen in satellite imagery. All
this to say that this evening`s PoPs are aligned in such a way to
capture most of what the Mark 0 Mod 1 eyeball is seeing. An
ingredients-based approach yields very little except for the
potential for sub-severe wind gusts should an updraft persist.
Look for convective activity to die off around sunset with loss of
sensible heating and PBL decoupling.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the consensus here is for the upper
ridge to strengthen overhead. This means we can expect a warmup of
around five degrees over climatology, which puts portions of the
Upper Trans Pecos and the Rio Grande valley into triple-digit
heat. Unless you`re fortunate enough to be in the mountains where
highs will be in the 80s, the rest of us will see highs both days
in the mid to upper 90s. Mid-tropospheric drying is trying to
work its way southwestward but is balanced out a bit by recycled
moisture from the current monsoon burst. Thus we`ll maintain low-
order afternoon and evening PoPs for the mountains.

Friday gets a little interesting. A short wave trough forming
from the monsoon burst becomes entrained in the westerlies
Thursday, then amplifies a bit in northwesterly flow aloft over
the Midwest. The NAM looks to be a bit overdeveloped here while
the GFS and SREF maintain a weaker trough. With the understanding
that the SREF, like any ensemble model, is underdispersive and
tends to smooth the edges of the ensemble envelope, this solution
looks to be closer to what we expect reality to look like 84 hours
out. While upper level support will be lacking, modest surface
pressure rises in the wake of the aforementioned short wave
trough will be enough to send a windshift down across the Texas
Panhandle and perhaps become quasi-stationary over the northern
Permian Basin by Friday afternoon. Again, an ingredients-based
approach argues against anything significant; however, diabatic
heating and weak convergence along this boundary should be enough
to gin up isolated TSRA Friday afternoon and evening.

Going into the weekend and next week, temperatures look to
moderate some while cloudiness and afternoon/evening TSRA will
remain confined to the eastern fringes of the monsoon, namely over
far west Texas and the mountains and adjacent plains of
southeastern New Mexico. Out beyond the extended, an expected
shift toward a -PNA regime ought to shift the subtropical high
east of here, while a shift toward lower heights in the north
Atlantic supports carving out an upper level weakness over the
southeastern states. This weakness is then carried down into the
western Gulf where it becomes a TUTT low, then back north into
Texas by next weekend. Rain chances may increase over the region
as a result, but all this could come to naught, too. Will take a
chance of something than no chance at all.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
324
FXUS64 KMAF 251947
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
247 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Short-term focus this evening will be on the potential for
isolated thunderstorms over much of west Texas and southeastern
New Mexico. CAMS, and in particular the last several HRRR runs,
cover much of the Permian Basin in freckles until some cold pool
amalgamation promotes a few clusters. Not certain but suspect the
HRRR is resolving updrafts; then again, a look to the east seems
to support a consensus of the last several HRRR runs as well as
the NSSL WRF. Nothing much was resolved over the Guadalupes or
over the northwestern Permian Basin/central and northern Lea
County where a MOGR CU field is seen in satellite imagery. All
this to say that this evening`s PoPs are aligned in such a way to
capture most of what the Mark 0 Mod 1 eyeball is seeing. An
ingredients-based approach yields very little except for the
potential for sub-severe wind gusts should an updraft persist.
Look for convective activity to die off around sunset with loss of
sensible heating and PBL decoupling.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the consensus here is for the upper
ridge to strengthen overhead. This means we can expect a warmup of
around five degrees over climatology, which puts portions of the
Upper Trans Pecos and the Rio Grande valley into triple-digit
heat. Unless you`re fortunate enough to be in the mountains where
highs will be in the 80s, the rest of us will see highs both days
in the mid to upper 90s. Mid-tropospheric drying is trying to
work its way southwestward but is balanced out a bit by recycled
moisture from the current monsoon burst. Thus we`ll maintain low-
order afternoon and evening PoPs for the mountains.

Friday gets a little interesting. A short wave trough forming
from the monsoon burst becomes entrained in the westerlies
Thursday, then amplifies a bit in northwesterly flow aloft over
the Midwest. The NAM looks to be a bit overdeveloped here while
the GFS and SREF maintain a weaker trough. With the understanding
that the SREF, like any ensemble model, is underdispersive and
tends to smooth the edges of the ensemble envelope, this solution
looks to be closer to what we expect reality to look like 84 hours
out. While upper level support will be lacking, modest surface
pressure rises in the wake of the aforementioned short wave
trough will be enough to send a windshift down across the Texas
Panhandle and perhaps become quasi-stationary over the northern
Permian Basin by Friday afternoon. Again, an ingredients-based
approach argues against anything significant; however, diabatic
heating and weak convergence along this boundary should be enough
to gin up isolated TSRA Friday afternoon and evening.

Going into the weekend and next week, temperatures look to
moderate some while cloudiness and afternoon/evening TSRA will
remain confined to the eastern fringes of the monsoon, namely over
far west Texas and the mountains and adjacent plains of
southeastern New Mexico. Out beyond the extended, an expected
shift toward a -PNA regime ought to shift the subtropical high
east of here, while a shift toward lower heights in the north
Atlantic supports carving out an upper level weakness over the
southeastern states. This weakness is then carried down into the
western Gulf where it becomes a TUTT low, then back north into
Texas by next weekend. Rain chances may increase over the region
as a result, but all this could come to naught, too. Will take a
chance of something than no chance at all.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  73  96  72  97  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                    68  95  67  95  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      73 101  73 100  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  95  71  97  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  88  67  89  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       68  93  67  93  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       58  89  59  89  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  96  71  98  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                      72  96  72  97  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                        72  99  72 100  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/70
273
FXUS64 KMAF 251721
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southeast wind this TAF period. Isolated
TS will develop this afternoon mainly near MAF and FST, however
coverage will not be great enough to place TS in any FM groups at
this time and will handle with AMD as needed.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

Intense heating along a Weak surface boundary near the Pecos
River will be the focus for potential thunderstorm development
this afternoon and this evening. Looking for the best chance
across the eastern Permian Basin where low level convergence and
moisture will be maximized. More isolated activity is expected
across the southeast New Mexico Plains and the mountains due
to a marginally unstable upslope flow regime. Expecting activity
to die this evening with loss of heating.

Beyond today looking for above normal temperatures and mainly
quiet weather Thursday and Friday as an upper level ridge of high
pressure builds over the area. Did mention isolated thunderstorms
possible in the afternoon and evening in portions of the
mountains and or southeast New Mexico Plains these days in upslope
flow.

For Friday and Saturday another weak boundary could trigger
isolated thunderstorms across the northern Permian Basin and
the mountains. Any Activity does not look to be very expansive
with an upper ridge in the vicinity. Temperatures should remain
well above normal these days.

For Sunday and next Monday north to northeasterly flow aloft
is expected to prevail around the upper ridge that is forecast
to reside in the Rockies and western high plains. Another weak
surface boundary and upslope flow could generate some isolated
convection in portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico
but will not mention this far out. Will continue to monitor. High
temperatures are expected to cool a few degrees but still remain
above normal these days.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10
360
FXUS64 KMAF 251044
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
544 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 hours.  Thunderstorms
will be possible, especially this afternoon, but probabilities are
too low to include in the current issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

Intense heating along a Weak surface boundary near the Pecos
River will be the focus for potential thunderstorm development
this afternoon and this evening. Looking for the best chance
across the eastern Permian Basin where low level convergence and
moisture will be maximized. More isolated activity is expected
across the southeast New Mexico Plains and the mountains due
to a marginally unstable upslope flow regime. Expecting activity
to die this evening with loss of heating.

Beyond today looking for above normal temperatures and mainly
quiet weather Thursday and Friday as an upper level ridge of high
pressure builds over the area. Did mention isolated thunderstorms
possible in the afternoon and evening in portions of the
mountains and or southeast New Mexico Plains these days in upslope
flow.

For Friday and Saturday another weak boundary could trigger
isolated thunderstorms across the northern Permian Basin and
the mountains. Any Activity does not look to be very expansive
with an upper ridge in the vicinity. Temperatures should remain
well above normal these days.

For Sunday and next Monday north to northeasterly flow aloft
is expected to prevail around the upper ridge that is forecast
to reside in the Rockies and western high plains. Another weak
surface boundary and upslope flow could generate some isolated
convection in portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico
but will not mention this far out. Will continue to monitor. High
temperatures are expected to cool a few degrees but still remain
above normal these days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  95  71  96  72  /  30  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    94  69  95  69  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      99  73 101  73  /  20  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               95  71  95  71  /  20  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  67  90  67  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       92  68  91  68  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                       88  60  88  60  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        94  71  95  71  /  20  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                      94  72  95  73  /  20  20   0   0
WINK TX                        96  73  97  72  /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
382
FXUS64 KMAF 250828
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
328 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Intense heating along a Weak surface boundary near the Pecos
River will be the focus for potential thunderstorm development
this afternoon and this evening. Looking for the best chance
across the eastern Permian Basin where low level convergence and
moisture will be maximized. More isolated activity is expected
across the southeast New Mexico Plains and the mountains due
to a marginally unstable upslope flow regime. Expecting activity
to die this evening with loss of heating.

Beyond today looking for above normal temperatures and mainly
quiet weather Thursday and Friday as an upper level ridge of high
pressure builds over the area. Did mention isolated thunderstorms
possible in the afternoon and evening in portions of the
mountains and or southeast New Mexico Plains these days in upslope
flow.

For Friday and Saturday another weak boundary could trigger
isolated thunderstorms across the northern Permian Basin and
the mountains. Any Activity does not look to be very expansive
with an upper ridge in the vicinity. Temperatures should remain
well above normal these days.

For Sunday and next Monday north to northeasterly flow aloft
is expected to prevail around the upper ridge that is forecast
to reside in the Rockies and western high plains. Another weak
surface boundary and upslope flow could generate some isolated
convection in portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico
but will not mention this far out. Will continue to monitor. High
temperatures are expected to cool a few degrees but still remain
above normal these days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  95  71  96  72  /  30  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    94  69  95  69  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      99  73 101  73  /  20  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               95  71  95  71  /  20  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  67  90  67  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       92  68  91  68  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                       88  60  88  60  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        94  71  95  71  /  20  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                      94  72  95  73  /  20  20   0   0
WINK TX                        96  73  97  72  /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
768
FXUS64 KMAF 250502
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1202 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through tonight, and Tuesday.
Thunderstorms will be possible, especially Tuesday afternoon, but
probabilities are too low to include in the current issuance.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
164
FXUS64 KMAF 242310
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...See 00Z Aviation discussion below.


&&

.AVIATION...As of 6:00 PM CDT Monday...there are mainly scattered
thunderstorms along and south of I-20 this early evening. The
storms are in a weak steering regime...mostly oriented along old
outflow boundaries. As of now...do not think any of the Aviation
sites will be affected by storms. One cell is southwest of KPEQ
and is weakening as it moves NNW. Another cell is south of KINK
and is moving very slowly. Will continue to monitor.

Strobin
&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

33
428
FXUS64 KMAF 241926
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
226 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Current visible satellite shows an enhanced cumulus field
developing along the remnants of the cold front that moved into
the CWA yesterday. Isolated storms are developing in the southern
Permian Basin but most of the activity will be in the Davis
Mountains where moisture and orographics will combine for the
greatest instability. The hi-res models handled yesterday pretty
well so have confidence in precipitation in the higher elevations
today and have adjusted PoPs up accordingly. Cell motion will be
slow so there will be a chance for localized flash flooding from
these storms. Convective activity will not last long into the
evening as the boundary layer quickly stabilizes, the only
exceptions would be isolated outflow boundary interactions.

An upper high will build over eastern New Mexico the remainder of
the week, causing temperatures to increase and decreasing rain
chances. Decreased temperatures slightly tomorrow due to the
cooling effects of recent rains but the ground should be dry by
Wednesday sending high temperatures back well above normal for
this time of year.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  71  95  71  97  /  10  20  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                    68  94  70  96  /  30  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                      73  97  73  99  /  10  20  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               69  95  71  96  /  20  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              66  86  68  89  /  20  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                       67  92  69  93  /  20  10   0   0
MARFA TX                       61  88  62  89  /  20   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        70  94  71  97  /  20  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                      71  94  72  96  /  20  20  10   0
WINK TX                        71  96  73  98  /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/10
674
FXUS64 KMAF 241830
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
130 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 24/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals through 25/18Z.
Beginning to see signs of convective development over the Davis
Mountains south across the Marfa Plateau and much of Brewster
County. Isolated TSRA is possible just about anywhere today, but
confidence is sufficiently low to preclude mention of TSRA at any
one terminal. Shortly after sunset, isolated thunderstorm
development will wane, leaving the area with a bit of convective
debris aloft and light and variable winds at the surface.

&&

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

Latest mesoanalysis suggests an area of convergence and fronto-
genesis along I-10 roughly centered around KFST. In addition,
surface theta analyses indicate something resembling a baroclinic
zone extending from the Davis Mountains east-northeastward to
north central Texas. We do see a weak core west of SH 118 south
of Kent and MOGR CU over much of southwest TX extending northeast
into the southern Permian Basin.

There`s plenty of moisture around with surface Tds in the lower
60s, with localized higher amounts where it rained yesterday.
Precipitable water values are running around 1.5. There`s a bit of
instability to be had, but mid level lapse rates are anemic and
wind shear is pretty much nonexistent. As a result, low-level cold
pools will play a critical role in secondary CI and upscale
growth. The last series of HRRR runs are optimistic about
scattered TSRA across the southern Permian Basin while the NSSL
WRF and TTU WRF are less optimistic. Right now I`m leaning more
toward the less optimistic side, but wouldn`t be surprised to see
CI somewhere in the southern Basin by 21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening but probabilities are too small to mention at this time.
Winds will remain generally light and will shift from the
northeast to the east and southeast during the day today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to current forecast.  Area radars show convection
has diminished across most of the FA, w/only a few -SHRA in NW Eddy
County.  MRMS estimates indicate that the Wrn Low Rolling Plains and
Permian Basin fared best w/regards to rainfall last night,
w/widespread estimates over 1", and totals as high as 5-6".  Latest
sfc analysis shows the old cold front down in the Big Bend Area/Lwr
Trans Pecos, but a secondary surge of cold air is currently moving
thru Southeast New Mexico, the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, and Permian
Basin.  W/these two fronts in the area, as well as residual
boundaries from yesterday`s activity, at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms will persist throughout the day across most of West
Texas and SE NM.  Buffer soundings suggest temps this afternoon will
be blo normal north, abv normal south, although cloud cover,
convection, and antecedent soil moisture will all combine to
frustrate things.

Otherwise, WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the Gulf
Coast, but this is still forecast to build west as the Great Lakes
trough amplifies during the week.  Thicknesses will increase through
Friday, w/a corresponding ramp-up of temperatures to the upper 90s
most locations for the weekend.  Long-range models park the ridge
over the SW CONUS/Nrn Mexico by the end of the extended, w/chances
of rain after today slim-to-none.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70
994
FXUS64 KMAF 241121
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
621 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening but probabilities are too small to mention at this time.
Winds will remain generally light and will shift from the
northeast to the east and southeast during the day today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to current forecast.  Area radars show convection
has diminished across most of the FA, w/only a few -SHRA in NW Eddy
County.  MRMS estimates indicate that the Wrn Low Rolling Plains and
Permian Basin fared best w/regards to rainfall last night,
w/widespread estimates over 1", and totals as high as 5-6".  Latest
sfc analysis shows the old cold front down in the Big Bend Area/Lwr
Trans Pecos, but a secondary surge of cold air is currently moving
thru Southeast New Mexico, the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, and Permian
Basin.  W/these two fronts in the area, as well as residual
boundaries from yesterday`s activity, at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms will persist throughout the day across most of West
Texas and SE NM.  Buffer soundings suggest temps this afternoon will
be blo normal north, abv normal south, although cloud cover,
convection, and antecedent soil moisture will all combine to
frustrate things.

Otherwise, WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the Gulf
Coast, but this is still forecast to build west as the Great Lakes
trough amplifies during the week.  Thicknesses will increase through
Friday, w/a corresponding ramp-up of temperatures to the upper 90s
most locations for the weekend.  Long-range models park the ridge
over the SW CONUS/Nrn Mexico by the end of the extended, w/chances
of rain after today slim-to-none.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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