Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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444
FXUS64 KMAF 192327
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
527 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Some fog may
lower visibilities around KPEQ and KMAF during the morning, but
this should be short-lived. Southwest winds will increase during
the afternoon with gusts over 25 kts possible at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Swift west to northwest flow aloft is expected through
Saturday resulting in above normal temperatures and dry
conditions. Surface lee trough will become a fixture and
intensify in this flow. Breezy to windy conditions look
likely in the mountains and adjacent plains, especially
Friday. Have issued a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Pass
Friday and Friday evening as mid level westerly winds funnel
through that region.

A very extensive and broad upper level trough is forecast
to develop across much of the nation by later this weekend
and this feature will push much colder air into the forecast
area by Sunday and Monday. In addition an overrunning pattern
aided by a strong jet aloft is expected to develop and could
result in light freezing and or frozen precipitation late
Sunday through Monday across a significant portion of west
Texas and the southeast New Mexico Plains, For now have
mentioned this possibility in the Hazardous Weather Outlook
but later shifts will need to monitor for possible upgrade.

Behind this system, moderating but below normal temperatures
are expected next Tuesday through Thursday. Will keep
this portion of the extended dry for now.

FIRE WEATHER...
Upper ridging over the wrn CONUS will dampen over the next 24-36
hrs, w/nw flow aloft transitioning to zonal.  A leeside sfc trough
currently over SE CO will sink se into the Texas Panhandle
overnight, veering sfc flow over West Texas and SE NM to west.
Westerly downslope 20ft winds and unseasonably-warm temperatures
Friday afternoon will result in critical RH`s over all of SE NM and
most of West Texas.  In the Guadalupes, forecast soundings mix out
to around 725mb, where models are carrying winds NW 40+ kts Friday
afternoon.  This will result in RFTIs of 5-6 (high) in and adjacent
to the Guadalupes.  Combined w/high to very high forecast fire
danger, critical fire wx conditions will be possible in the
Guadalupes and adjacent areas south Friday afternoon.  How far south
remains in question, so we`re going with a Fire Wx Watch this
forecast, and will let the mid shift make the call on whether to
upgrade some or all of it to a warning.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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