Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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452
FXUS64 KMAF 261723
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1123 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF issuance
MVFR cigs in place across all terminals through the afternoon and
overnight. Ceilings may rise at KFST and KCNM briefly but it
should not last as another disturbance moves across the region
tonight. Light snow is expected to develop mainly across the
northern terminals around midnight and continue most of Friday.
Lowered vsbys possibly down to a mile at times are likely.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated the forecast for Light snow across the far eastern Permian
Basin and western low rolling plains.

DISCUSSION...
Radar and observations show light snow falling from near Gail, to
Snyder, to Colorado City this morning. There may be some light
accumulations of up to around 1/2", which should limit impacts
across this area though temperatures are below freezing so caution
should be exercised especially along I-20 near Colorado City. Snow
will diminish this afternoon but more is possible later tonight.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS have made it to HOB, nearing CNM and an hr or so out
from MAF. Winds have recently increased at HOB and expect this will
be the trend at other sites thru the mid morning. MVFR CIGS are
generally expected to hold thru the day, possibly lifting some late
before lowering again overnight. There will be an increased chance
of snow tonight especially at HOB and have included prevailing
-SHSN toward end of the forecast there.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

North to northeast winds are across the area with light snow showers
across northern portions of the Permian Basin and southeast New
Mexico.  Colder temperatures are moving into the region behind the
cold front with highs expected to be in the 40s and 50s across most
of the area.  There is a slight chance of a snow/sleet/light rain mix
across the northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, the
Guadalupe Mountains, and the Upper Trans Pecos today with a broad
upper trough in place across most of the conus.  High winds are
possible through Guadalupe Pass this evening through early tomorrow
morning as the pressure gradient increases across this area.  MOSS
guidance is indicating high winds for this time period so a High
Wind Watch is being issued.  Precipitation chances will increase
across the area tonight with the best chances being across northern
Lea County and the northern Permian Basin.  Expect precipitation
across this area to be in the form of snow with a mixture of sleet
and snow possible further south to the mountains of West Texas.  A
rain/snow mix will be possible across the Big Bend and southern
Terrell County.

The precipitation will gradually shift to the east on Friday
afternoon with highs in the 20s across most of the Permian Basin.
The wintry precipitation is expected to continue through Saturday
with the best chances being across the Western Low Rolling Plains,
eastern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos.  High temperatures on
Saturday will warm up into the 40s and 50s across much of the area
so precipitation will transition over to rain as afternoon
approaches.  Up to 2 inches of snow is possible across northern Lea
County with an inch or more possible across the northern Permian
Basin.  Did not issue a Winter Weather Advisory at this time
although one may need to be issued later today depending on
forecasted QPF/snow amounts.  Will go ahead and issue an SPS to
cover the hazards.

An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California over the weekend with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly.  Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as surface winds become southerly and the clouds
decrease in coverage.  On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area.  Showers with an
isolated thunderstorm may develop Monday afternoon as a result of
the increase in lift.  High temperatures on Monday are not expected
to be quite as warm due to an increase in cloud cover.  Temperatures
will warm slightly on Tuesday with a slight chance of rain across
the Guadalupe Mountains as the upper trough gets closer to the
region.  The upper trough will begin passing over the area on
Wednesday with the models keeping most of the precipitation north of
the CWA.  Strong west winds are expected on Wednesday as the base of
the upper trough moves over the area.  A cold front associated with
the upper trough will move into the area Wednesday evening allowing
for colder temperatures on Thursday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from 7 PM MST this evening through Friday
     morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29

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