Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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388
FXUS64 KMAF 291654
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1154 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A nearly stationary upper level disturbance across western New
Mexico will interact with copious amounts of moisture to produce
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and continuing overnight across west Texas and southeast New
Mexico. Confidence was high enough to include TEMPO MVFR groups
for rain and thunderstorms at all the terminals beginning late
this afternoon and continuing overnight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 557 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Showers persist over the Permian basin, but thunderstorms have
waned. Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the day, if not
most of the night. Thunderstorms are expected to develop again
this afternoon, but will wait another issuance to get a better
handle on which terminals will be affected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 416 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

Heavy rain has fallen across much of Lea Co and the northwest
Permian Basin overnight. Some spots have picked up over 5 inches
of rain causing areas of flash flooding. Scattered showers and a
few storms continue across the central Permian Basin early this
morning. Expect this to continue for a few more hours before this
morning round of convection dissipates.

Little will change today as an upper low slowly moves east into NM
and keeps deep moisture streaming overhead. Lift east of the low
will combine with surface heating to help generate scattered showers
and thunderstorms, especially across SE NM and the higher terrain of
W TX. Convection may spread east again overnight as a modest low
level jet develops. Heavy rain will remain the greatest concern over
the next few days with PWATs well over our seasonal norms. Will
issue a Flash Flood Watch for the western 3/4 of the CWA. This is
where the heaviest rain has fallen over the past few days and
where the best chance for convection will be today/tonight.

The upper low will more or less evolve into a weakness early this
week. This weakness will stick around leading to more showers and
thunderstorms each day through at least Thursday. Temperatures
will also remain below normal until at least the latter part of
the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  86  69  87 /  50  50  40  40
Carlsbad                       66  75  65  80 /  70  70  60  50
Dryden                         71  87  71  88 /  50  50  40  40
Fort Stockton                  66  82  66  85 /  60  50  40  40
Guadalupe Pass                 60  69  60  73 /  60  70  50  50
Hobbs                          64  76  64  80 /  60  60  60  50
Marfa                          62  74  61  77 /  50  60  50  40
Midland Intl Airport           68  83  68  85 /  50  50  50  40
Odessa                         68  84  68  85 /  50  50  50  40
Wink                           68  82  68  85 /  60  60  50  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

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