Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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681
FXUS64 KMAF 020456
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1156 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals. A weakening upper level
storm system across the Rockies and Plains will generate
considerable clouds through Monday morning in the 4k to 8k layer.
Decreasing clouds are expected Monday afternoon. Winds will
generally be northerly at 10 to 15 mph through Monday morning and
then become easterly at 5 to 10 mph Monday afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 538 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

It appears the low cloud deck will persist over all southeast New
Mexico and west texas overnight, but will mainly stay low VFR.  KCNM
and KHOB may see a period of high MVFR ceilings through 02/04Z, but
do not expect these to last.  The cloud deck will dissipate Monday,
likely by 02/15Z, or shortly thereafter.  VFR will prevail after.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

The unseasonably strong cold front has already made it to near
the Rio Grande with scattered very light showers still across the
E-NE PB. Have made some late adjustment to drop high temps a few
degrees and lower PoPs across the west for the rest of the
afternoon. Isentropic ascent along I295-305 has been persisting,
but will tend to decrease overnight as winds in that layer back to
NE. Higher up on the I305 surface there will a boundary across the
ern Lower Trans Pecos and points ewd which will serve to renew
precip possibilities toward early Mon AM thru 18Z, aided somewhat
by an upper jet passing to the N. After 18Z precip chance will
drop off to nil. After a cool start Mon AM (widespread lows in the
40s) some afternoon insolation will serve to push high temps into
the M60s-L70s for most areas, warmer along the Rio Grande. A mid
level trof is to drop sewd early Wed AM which may serve to build
surface high pressure south at least into the nrn CWFA. Otherwise
thickness will increase Wed PM and a warming trend will follow
through Sat. It does look hot and dry Fri-Sat across the Trans
Pecos/SE NM with 85h temps of 25-30C. Dryline storms will be
possible east and south, maybe as early as Fri if moisture return
occurs quick enough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  44  66  46 /  30  30  10   0
Carlsbad                       54  43  68  46 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                         76  54  70  52 /  40  50  30  10
Fort Stockton                  63  49  68  50 /  30  20  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  38  62  47 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          52  40  67  44 /  30  10   0   0
Marfa                          63  39  65  39 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           61  45  69  48 /  30  20  10   0
Odessa                         61  45  69  49 /  30  20  10   0
Wink                           61  47  72  48 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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