926
FXUS64 KMAF 121735
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LAY PRIMARILY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS DECK THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS TO KFST AND KMAF. VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH STRONGER GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A SUBTROPICAL
DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF MEXICO TOMORROW BUT ANY CHANGES TO FLIGHT
CATEGORY ARE OUTSIDE THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE STOCKTON PLATEAU/LOWER TRANS
PECOS THIS MORNING AND ARE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN. THINK COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SPOTTY SO WILL INCLUDE
TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS AT KMAF UNTIL 12/15Z. SINCE THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS QUESTIONABLE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
KINK FORECAST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. 67
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST TOWARD THE BIG BEND THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN NORTH
INTO WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SYSTEM TODAY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO DEEP EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE APPROACHING LOW AND UPPER FLOW SHOULD
PUSH MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH ON THURSDAY AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE PECOS RIVER IN WEST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
COOL TOWARDS NORMAL AS HEIGHTS FALL UNDER CONTINUED DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAWIDE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH INTO WEST TEXAS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SHEAR OF LESS THAN 30 KNOTS
WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEPART TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW NORMAL IN CLOUDY MOIST REGIME.
BY SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REGAIN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN. THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING A FLATTER RIDGE AND SOME POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
GFS DEPICTS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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