Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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427
FXUS64 KMAF 282258
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
541 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Gusty and
elevated north to northeast winds will begin to diminish over the
next few hours.  Winds will become light and variable into the
overnight hours and will continue into Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure area centered across extreme northeast
Texas will continue to move northeast away from the region.
At the surface unseasonably cool surface high pressure is
centered over the extreme eastern high plains of Colorado and New
Mexico. This surface high is forecast to slide southeast tonight
and be centered over and near the Davis Mountains and Marfa
Plateau by sunrise. Will go ahead and issue a late season Freeze
Warning for the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau for late tonight
and early Tuesday morning. It will be a close call. Some locations
will probably not freeze but the potential exists for a few locations
to fall into the 30 to 32 degree range given that some snow flurries
were reported in the Davis Mountains this morning and skies will
clear with the center of the surface high passing over that region.

It will be dry with moderating temperatures expected Wednesday
through Saturday as an upper ridge slowly builds and remains over
the forecast area. Temperatures will still be below normal Wednesday
but should become above normal by Friday and Saturday as 850
millibar temperatures continue to warm.

The flow aloft is forecast to become zonal by Sunday and Monday.
A dryline is forecast to sharpen in this flow and head toward the
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region late in the afternoon
both days. Guidance is breaking out some convection in these areas
both days and could be reasonable given the amount of mid level
moisture that is also depicted. Temperatures will be above normal
with low level thermal ridging in place.

Thunderstorm chances will increase area wide by Tuesday due to a
upper level low pressure system approaching from the desert
southwest.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WARNING from 5 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

99

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