920
FXUS64 KMAF 201125
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
625 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS HAVE ENDED LEAVING BEHIND OVERCAST CONDITIONS.
WINDS HAVE ALSO BRIEFLY DECREASED BUT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW STORMS EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS. WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WILL START THE DAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO AND
EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TO THE CANADIAN BORDER AS AN UPPER
LOW SPINS OVER THE NORTHWEST. AS THIS LOW WOBBLES EAST THE SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BUT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS WITH CENTER OF THE RIDGE RETURNING WEST TO NEAR THE 4
CORNERS REGION WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED.
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED AGAIN WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WEST WITH EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING FROM PRESIDIO...
TO ORLA... TO ARTESIA. A NOCTURNAL JET GUSTING OVER 30KTS WAS
PUMPING FRESH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA KEEPING DEWPTS HIGH. EXPECT
STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODEL QPF STARTS
DEVELOPING LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE MORNING BETWEEN THE GUADALUPES
AND DAVIS MTNS WHICH HAPPENS TO BE THE SAME PLACE SOME SHOWERS
KICKED OFF YESTERDAY MORNING SO WILL KEEP SOME POPS EARLY FOR THE
WEST. STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON MAY TRACK INTO
THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN BY EVENING. BUMPED UP POPS TODAY TO LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS SE NM. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN IT WILL LOOK SIMILAR ON FRIDAY WITH STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT SE NM WILL GET HEAVIEST RAINFALL. SATURDAY
QPF EXTENDS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE BIG BEND AND A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SO HAVE EXTENDED POPS. HAD A LITTLE SEVERE
WX YESTERDAY SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S. PW OF 1.0
TO 1.2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED SO SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 90S THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WARMEST GUIDANCE HAS STILL BEEN JUST A LITTLE
TOO COOL SO WILL STAY A LITTLE ABOVE TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK UNDER THE RIDGE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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