Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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766
FXUS64 KMAF 240823
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
323 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain has continued this morning as a line of storms
progresses east across SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Several inches
of rain has fallen across these areas since Tuesday evening. Flash
flooding will continue to be the main concern this morning as this
rain falls over already saturated ground. Models indicate this
area of storms will diminish over the next few hours as they
approach the Permian Basin, but we shall see.

Little pattern change today as an upper trough over the Rockies
continues to pull moisture across the area. Heavy rain appears
almost a certainty this afternoon as PWATs remain 1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal. Location of the heaviest rain is a little
more uncertain with no discernible surface boundary. As clouds
clear and surface heating occurs during the day, visible satellite
may reveal any leftover outflow boundaries. Will orient highest
PoPs out west where the surface trough is located and model QPF is
greatest. Training cells are possible once again and may lead to
more flash flooding. Precip will have trouble moving east due to
dry air aloft and subsidence from the mid level ridge so well
trend PoPs down sharply from west to east.

The large subtropical ridge over the SE U.S. will keep the trough
from moving east quickly so storm chances will linger through the
week, especially across the western half of the area. The heavy rain
potential will need to be monitored as a moist atmosphere remains
in place into the weekend. Models don`t show much of a pattern
change through next week so PoPs look to stay fairly high with
temperatures below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  70  92  68 /  30  30  20  20
Carlsbad                       88  66  86  65 /  30  20  50  50
Dryden                         92  72  93  72 /  20  30  20  20
Fort Stockton                  89  68  90  68 /  40  40  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 81  63  78  61 /  40  20  50  40
Hobbs                          84  64  84  64 /  50  40  40  40
Marfa                          81  60  80  61 /  50  40  50  40
Midland Intl Airport           89  70  91  68 /  40  40  20  20
Odessa                         88  69  89  69 /  50  50  20  20
Wink                           89  69  91  69 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29

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