Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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199
FXUS64 KMAF 011915
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
215 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Saturday...Convection is starting
to develop over the Davis/Guadalupe Mtns and adjacent Plains.
KMAF radar is showing a boundary over the Permian Basin...and high
resolution models are depicting convection forming along the
boundary this aftn/evening.

Models are hinting at more convection tonight and Sunday...
especially over the Mtns and Northern PB as the ridge remains
centered in AZ/NM and slightly weakens allowing weak shortwaves
move across.

The ridge will edge further east and strengthen in response to a
trough moving to the West Coast. Convection will be confined
mainly to the mountains by Tuesday.

Beginning Wed and continuing into next weekend the ridge will be
centered over the Southern Plains. It looks like the increased
subsidence will inhibit convection...even over the mountains.

The bigger news will be the very hot temps. With H85 temps
between 30-31C (ECMWF) and 30-34C (GFS) there will be widespread
triple digit heat across the Plains next week. It looks like the
hottest days will be Wednesday thru Friday with 105-110 possible
in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  72  98  74  99  /  20  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                    71  97  73  98  /  20  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      75 100  74 100  /  20  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               73  99  74 101  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  91  69  90  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       70  96  72  96  /  30  10  20  20
MARFA TX                       61  91  62  91  /  20  20  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        73  99  74 100  /  30  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                      73  99  75 100  /  30  20  10  10
WINK TX                        75 103  76 104  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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