Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 151736

1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2014


The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.



Expect VFR conditions to prevail areawide through the forecast
period, except for temporary MVFR visibility at KCNM, KFST and KPEQ
where thunderstorms have been included between 15/20Z and 16/02Z.
Otherwise, east to southeast winds generally around 10kt or less
will prevail.  67


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2014/


Sending an update to increase PoPs over the Lower Trans Pecos into
the higher terrain.  Also will tweak afternoon high temperatures
according to lower h85 temperatures in the latest progs and
according to expected cloud cover.


Showers and a few thunderstorms persisted over portions of the
Permian Basin and near the Davis Mountains and Big Bend region.
Cloud cover was fairly extensive over the northern half of the
forecast area this morning, but less cloud cover and some better
heating was commencing over the Lower Trans Pecos and over a good
deal of the higher terrain. An MCV is swirling slowly southward
into the northern Permian Basin from the Panhandle, while a
frontal boundary lie across the Permian Basin and a couple of
outflow boundaries have moved into the Lower Trans Pecos and
higher terrain.

Although temperatures look to stay in the 80s north, better heating
over the southern and western forecast area, along with easterly
upslope flow, will likely result in scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon in a moist, modestly unstable airmass.  In addition, it
appears there will be little to no cap over most of the region.
Think gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be the main
threats from any thunderstorms through this afternoon, but
particularly over the Lower Trans Pecos into the higher terrain
where the best heating will occur.  If locations over the
northern/central forecast area can receive enough heating, isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will also be possible along the mentioned
frontal boundary.  An update will follow shortly.




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