Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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169
FXUS64 KMAF 310300
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
900 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016

DISCUSSION...

Sfc obs show the PBL has further decoupled w/loss of daytime
heating, and RHs most locations have risen above critical
thresholds. Thus, the RFW for this evening will be allowed to
expire as scheduled. We`ll update grids/products to reflect this,
and adjust other parameters as necessary to mesh w/current
conditions. Updates out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 126 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Have near zonal flow aloft with some weak shortwaves embedded in it.
The next upper trough moves onto the West Coast Sunday afternoon and
rapidly swings east reaching the area by Tuesday.  By late Thursday
high pressure begins to build in from the west as the upper ridge
slides east.

Current forecast looks on track with warm and windy well covered.
As an upper jet noses into the area wind speeds aloft will increase.
Eta has 250mb jet arriving Sunday with wind speeds of 140kts or
greater moving over the area by early Tuesday.  Should see a 700mb
wind of 50kts over the west Sunday increasing to 75kts by Monday.
Will be continue the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupes and the
Van Horn region and allow the Wind Advisory to continue until 00z.
Expect there will be the need for another Wind Advisory tomorrow but
will not add it at this time.  Windy conditions should actually
increase on Monday... may even see a large area of dust get kicked
up and drift across the area.

Temperatures will continue to run unseasonably warm Sunday and
Monday but then a Pacific front will blow through.  A W/SW downslope
wind will help keep temps warm Sunday but readings should stay
several degrees below record.  Lows generally above freezing next
two mornings.  By Tuesday high temps should be about 20 degrees
cooler in the wake of the front with highs in the 40s and 50s.
Warmer readings return by the weekend.

Few clouds except the next few days except a few high ones.  Will
keep forecast dry with no precip expected for the coming week.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions are developing across much of
west Texas and southeast New Mexico this afternoon as rh/s
plunge to less than 15 percent with winds increasing to at or
above 20 mph in strong downslope flow. These critical conditions
will continue the rest of this afternoon and will continue through
mid evening despite sunset due to surface winds remaining strong
in a strong surface pressure gradient. Conditions will improve
later this evening as 20 foot winds relax some and rh/s increase
above 15 percent.

More fire weather concerns are in store for Sunday as strong
westerly winds  aloft continue across much of the region. Fair to
poor recovery tonight will set the stage for critical fire weather
conditions across a significant portion of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico during the day. Rh/s are expected to drop to
5 to 15 percent Sunday afternoon in strong dry downslope flow with
20 foot winds at or above 20 mph across much of the region. Will
continue the Fire Weather Watch for southeast New Mexico and much
of west Texas during the day Sunday. Will let the midnight shift
make the final call on which counties to include in the warning.

More critical fire weather conditions are anticipated across
portions of  west Texas during the day Monday as strong westerly
winds aloft continue as a strong upper level storm system tracks
across the southern Rockies. Deep mixing of strong winds aloft
should easily allow 20 foot winds to exceed 20 mph across all of
west Texas and southeast New Mexico. The strong, dry downslope
should also allow min rh/s to drop to 5 to 15 percent from
portions of the Permian Basin south to the Trans Pecos and much of
the Big Bend. It looks like southeast New Mexico and or portions
of the northern Permian Basin may or may not escape the critical
fire weather conditions due to potential moistening and cooling
produced by an the upper level low pressure area. A Fire Weather
Watch will likely be issued tonight or Sunday for portions of west
Texas and or southeast New Mexico for Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  76  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  77  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         47  82  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  51  79  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 39  65  38  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  73  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          28  70  28  70 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  77  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         47  78  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           41  78  39  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ-Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ-Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.

&&

$$

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