Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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772
FXUS64 KMAF 201107
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
507 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR ceilings over west central Texas should stay east of all west
Texas terminals this morning.  Therefore, VFR conditions will
prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The warming trend will continue today as zonal flow aloft
continues above a surface lee trough. Under mostly sunny skies
temperatures will climb several degrees above normal. A quiet
night is expected tonight with the zonal flow and surface lee
trough continuing with temperatures dropping to near normal values
under clear to partly cloudy skies. The flow aloft is expected to
turn southwesterly Friday ahead of a potent southern stream storm
system approaching from the desert southwest. Temperatures will
continue several degrees above normal with surface low pressure
developing over the area and Gulf moisture continuing to
increase.

The aforementioned potent southern stream system will approach
the forecast area Friday night and Saturday allowing an anomalous
late season increase in low level moisture from the western Gulf
of Mexico, Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence
associated with the upper system should act on a unstable
atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing
eastward moving cold front. Some of these storms will be strong to
possibly severe in the eastern Permian Basin given elevated capes
of over 1000 j/kg and strong shear expected.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Wednesday with below normal temperatures
expected next Monday through Wednesday. The strong mid level flow
will be capable of producing strong winds in the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains Monday through Tuesday. Later shifts will need to
monitor.

More cold air could spill back into the area by Thanksgiving.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  36  68  45  /   0   0   0  40
BIG SPRING TX              70  40  68  50  /   0   0  10  60
CARLSBAD NM                68  34  69  41  /   0   0   0  30
DRYDEN TX                  69  47  73  53  /   0  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  43  73  48  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  42  66  40  /   0   0   0  30
HOBBS NM                   67  33  66  42  /   0   0   0  30
MARFA TX                   67  29  68  35  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  37  70  48  /   0   0   0  50
ODESSA TX                  69  39  70  48  /   0   0   0  40
WINK TX                    72  39  73  46  /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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