Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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442
FXUS64 KMAF 252321
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
521 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions prevailing through Sunday with a general increase
in westerly winds during the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows that the upper trough that was off the PacNW coast
yesterday has dug south to nrn CA, remaining offshore, and slowly
transitioning NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
to zonal.  Closer to home, return has resumed, but afternoon highs
will top out well-below normal, ranging from the upper 50s north to
near 80 south.  Despite the cooler wx, current obs show several
locations in the Guadalupes hitting RF conditions due to a very dry
AMS in place.  See Fire Wx Discussion below for further details.

The west coast trough is forecast to open over SOCAL late tonight,
and move thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Sunday.  This will
be accompanied by a weak Pac front, but afternoon temps should still
rebound to above-normal, hitting the 70s most locations.  Model
soundings over the Guadalupes mix to above 650mb Sunday afternoon,
where 45-50kt westerlies are forecast.  However, mid clouds over the
area may inhibit mixing somewhat, making for a very marginal winds
event.  Because of this, we`ll leave the High Wind Watch in place.

Meanwhile, another upper trough off the PacNW coast is forecast to
open and move inland Sun/Mon, transitioning zonal flow aloft to SW
Monday.  Forecast soundings do not mix as deep Mon as Sun, but 40-
45kt southwesterlies are forecast, w/a little less cloud cover.
We`ll go ahead and issue a High Wind Watch for Monday as well, as
the NAM mtn wave signature looks a little more pronounced than on
Sunday.

Tuesday should be the warmest day this forecast as the upper trough
moves thru the region, w/downslope warming pumping afternoon temps
to the upper 70s and 80s over much of the area.  Unfortunately, a
strong cold front arrives Wednesday to knock temps back down below-
normal, where they will stay for a few days.  Weak return flow
resumes by Thursday, but temps should not get back to above-normal
until Saturday.  Models bring a trough thru the region over the
weekend, and there might be enough moisture in place over the lwr
Trans Pecos by then for a little -RA, but model solutions by this
time are quite discordant, so this will likely change.

FIRE WEATHER...

An active fire weather pattern looks to continue into next week. A
dry air mass remains over the region, and despite a cold front last
night and cooler temperatures today, RHs have dropped below 15
percent across western portions of the forecast area. Fortunately
for most, winds will remain below critical levels, though the
exception is in the Guadalupe Mountains where 30 to 35 mph winds
with higher gusts (especially across higher elevations) will result
in Critical Fire Weather Conditions through early this evening.
Thus, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for that area.

Recovery tonight will be poor across the west, where fire weather
concerns will increase on Sunday.  Temperatures will rebound above
normal, with afternoon RHs expected to drop under 15 percent for
most of the area.  The area of greatest concern is again the
Guadalupe Mountains, where very strong winds will develop by late
morning, and a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from Sunday
morning through Sunday afternoon. Given the low RHs, Elevated Fire
Weather Conditions are expected over a larger portion of the area,
though portions of the southeastern New Mexico Plains and Upper
Trans Pecos may see brief critical fire weather conditions Sunday
afternoon. Model guidance indicates the potential for increased
850mb winds just prior to 00Z Monday across Southeast New Mexico and
portions of northern Culberson and Reeves counties, however, given
the uncertainty in this scenario, as well as the borderline nature
of expected winds, have elected to forego any expansion of the
current Fire Weather Watch.

Winds are expected to further increase on Monday and Tuesday, and
given continued above normal temperatures, poor/fair recovery, and
continued drying of available fuels, elevated/critical fire weather
conditions look to persist.  Cooler temperatures and slightly
increased RH could provide a reprieve on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     40  71  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       35  70  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  79  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  42  78  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 39  61  41  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          34  66  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          27  71  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           42  72  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         41  73  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           34  73  41  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/29
841
FXUS64 KMAF 252045
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows that the upper trough that was off the PacNW coast
yesterday has dug south to nrn CA, remaining offshore, and slowly
transitioning NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
to zonal.  Closer to home, return has resumed, but afternoon highs
will top out well-below normal, ranging from the upper 50s north to
near 80 south.  Despite the cooler wx, current obs show several
locations in the Guadalupes hitting RF conditions due to a very dry
AMS in place.  See Fire Wx Discussion below for further details.

The west coast trough is forecast to open over SOCAL late tonight,
and move thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Sunday.  This will
be accompanied by a weak Pac front, but afternoon temps should still
rebound to above-normal, hitting the 70s most locations.  Model
soundings over the Guadalupes mix to above 650mb Sunday afternoon,
where 45-50kt westerlies are forecast.  However, mid clouds over the
area may inhibit mixing somewhat, making for a very marginal winds
event.  Because of this, we`ll leave the High Wind Watch in place.

Meanwhile, another upper trough off the PacNW coast is forecast to
open and move inland Sun/Mon, transitioning zonal flow aloft to SW
Monday.  Forecast soundings do not mix as deep Mon as Sun, but 40-
45kt southwesterlies are forecast, w/a little less cloud cover.
We`ll go ahead and issue a High Wind Watch for Monday as well, as
the NAM mtn wave signature looks a little more pronounced than on
Sunday.

Tuesday should be the warmest day this forecast as the upper trough
moves thru the region, w/downslope warming pumping afternoon temps
to the upper 70s and 80s over much of the area.  Unfortunately, a
strong cold front arrives Wednesday to knock temps back down below-
normal, where they will stay for a few days.  Weak return flow
resumes by Thursday, but temps should not get back to above-normal
until Saturday.  Models bring a trough thru the region over the
weekend, and there might be enough moisture in place over the lwr
Trans Pecos by then for a little -RA, but model solutions by this
time are quite discordant, so this will likely change.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An active fire weather pattern looks to continue into next week. A
dry air mass remains over the region, and despite a cold front last
night and cooler temperatures today, RHs have dropped below 15
percent across western portions of the forecast area. Fortunately
for most, winds will remain below critical levels, though the
exception is in the Guadalupe Mountains where 30 to 35 mph winds
with higher gusts (especially across higher elevations) will result
in Critical Fire Weather Conditions through early this evening.
Thus, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for that area.

Recovery tonight will be poor across the west, where fire weather
concerns will increase on Sunday.  Temperatures will rebound above
normal, with afternoon RHs expected to drop under 15 percent for
most of the area.  The area of greatest concern is again the
Guadalupe Mountains, where very strong winds will develop by late
morning, and a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from Sunday
morning through Sunday afternoon. Given the low RHs, Elevated Fire
Weather Conditions are expected over a larger portion of the area,
though portions of the southeastern New Mexico Plains and Upper
Trans Pecos may see brief critical fire weather conditions Sunday
afternoon. Model guidance indicates the potential for increased
850mb winds just prior to 00Z Monday across Southeast New Mexico and
portions of northern Culberson and Reeves counties, however, given
the uncertainty in this scenario, as well as the borderline nature
of expected winds, have elected to forego any expansion of the
current Fire Weather Watch.

Winds are expected to further increase on Monday and Tuesday, and
given continued above normal temperatures, poor/fair recovery, and
continued drying of available fuels, elevated/critical fire weather
conditions look to persist.  Cooler temperatures and slightly
increased RH could provide a reprieve on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  40  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       61  35  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         71  44  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  71  42  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  39  61  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          56  34  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          70  27  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           60  42  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         59  41  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           63  34  73  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

84/44
835
FXUS64 KMAF 251740
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1140 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
southeasterly winds through this evening. Winds will veer to the
south tonight, with gusts to around 20KT possible for both MAF and
FST. Sunday morning, winds will begin to shift to the southwest
at all terminals, and could increase and become gusty just beyond
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/


DISCUSSION...
In the upper levels a flat ridge will stretch across the southern
tier of states as an upper trough moves down the CA coast to
Mexico. This trough will quickly swing east but weaken as it
passes across SE NM Sunday. A stronger trough will come ashore the
NW coast Sunday and merge with a southern trough early next week
and pass over the area late Tuesday/early Wednesday. After that
the region will stay on the east side of an upper ridge centered
over the West.

With the weak trough passing over the area Sunday and with 700mb
wind of 45kts or greater will continue with the High Wind Watch for
the Guadalupe Mtns.

A backdoor front moving through the area this morning will result in
below normal temperatures today with highs in the 50s north to 70s
along the Rio Grande.  As of 09z the front appears to be located
near the Pecos River.  The wind will come back around to the south
late in the day and aid the warm up Sunday.  Highs Sunday back into
the 70s and continue through Tuesday.  The upper trough
Tuesday/Wednesday will push a cold front through the area with
cooler temps Wednesday through Friday.

With little low level moisture to work with will continue the dry
forecast through next Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front has moved through most of the Permian Basin early this
morning with very good RH recovery across these areas. Elsewhere RH
recovery has been fairly poor thus far. Winds will become southerly
across the east today with westerly winds returning across the
western half of the CWA. Areas out west will see min RH/s drop to
near 10 percent this afternoon but thankfully wind speeds will
remain below 20 mph most locations. The exception will be for the
Guadalupe Mountains where critical fire weather conditions are
expected to develop as winds increase to 30-35mph sustained with
gusts up to 50mph. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect this
afternoon for the Guadalupe Mountains.

Min RH/s near 10 percent can be expected areawide Sunday with west
winds increasing across the region. Confidence is high that critical
fire weather conditions will develop across the Guadalupe Mountains
given the high winds expected. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued
for this area. The adjacent plains of Southeast NM and West TX could
also see a brief period of near critical wind speeds however
confidence was not high enough at this time to include these areas
in the watch. Will continue to monitor the potential and make
adjustments later if needed. Otherwise, elevated to near critical
fire weather could occur Monday and Tuesday as well, so stay
tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  73  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  72  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  77  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  43  77  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 39  60  39  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          35  69  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          27  73  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  74  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         41  74  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           36  76  39  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
540
FXUS64 KMAF 251116
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
516 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. A cold front has moved through all but
PEQ and FST this morning with light NE winds behind the front.
Winds will veer quickly to the SE by mid day and remain southerly
through the remainder of the TAF period. Only question is CNM
where winds could briefly shift out of the west this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
In the upper levels a flat ridge will stretch across the southern
tier of states as an upper trough moves down the CA coast to
Mexico. This trough will quickly swing east but weaken as it
passes across SE NM Sunday. A stronger trough will come ashore the
NW coast Sunday and merge with a southern trough early next week
and pass over the area late Tuesday/early Wednesday. After that
the region will stay on the east side of an upper ridge centered
over the West.

With the weak trough passing over the area Sunday and with 700mb
wind of 45kts or greater will continue with the High Wind Watch for
the Guadalupe Mtns.

A backdoor front moving through the area this morning will result in
below normal temperatures today with highs in the 50s north to 70s
along the Rio Grande.  As of 09z the front appears to be located
near the Pecos River.  The wind will come back around to the south
late in the day and aid the warm up Sunday.  Highs Sunday back into
the 70s and continue through Tuesday.  The upper trough
Tuesday/Wednesday will push a cold front through the area with
cooler temps Wednesday through Friday.

With little low level moisture to work with will continue the dry
forecast through next Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front has moved through most of the Permian Basin early this
morning with very good RH recovery across these areas. Elsewhere RH
recovery has been fairly poor thus far. Winds will become southerly
across the east today with westerly winds returning across the
western half of the CWA. Areas out west will see min RH/s drop to
near 10 percent this afternoon but thankfully wind speeds will
remain below 20 mph most locations. The exception will be for the
Guadalupe Mountains where critical fire weather conditions are
expected to develop as winds increase to 30-35mph sustained with
gusts up to 50mph. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect this
afternoon for the Guadalupe Mountains.

Min RH/s near 10 percent can be expected areawide Sunday with west
winds increasing across the region. Confidence is high that critical
fire weather conditions will develop across the Guadalupe Mountains
given the high winds expected. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued
for this area. The adjacent plains of Southeast NM and West TX could
also see a brief period of near critical wind speeds however
confidence was not high enough at this time to include these areas
in the watch. Will continue to monitor the potential and make
adjustments later if needed. Otherwise, elevated to near critical
fire weather could occur Monday and Tuesday as well, so stay
tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  42  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       65  36  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         67  43  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  43  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 58  39  60  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          56  35  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          65  27  73  34 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           60  41  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         60  41  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           64  36  76  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

27/72/27
274
FXUS64 KMAF 251013
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
413 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
In the upper levels a flat ridge will stretch across the southern
tier of states as an upper trough moves down the CA coast to
Mexico. This trough will quickly swing east but weaken as it
passes across SE NM Sunday. A stronger trough will come ashore the
NW coast Sunday and merge with a southern trough early next week
and pass over the area late Tuesday/early Wednesday. After that
the region will stay on the east side of an upper ridge centered
over the West.

With the weak trough passing over the area Sunday and with 700mb
wind of 45kts or greater will continue with the High Wind Watch for
the Guadalupe Mtns.

A backdoor front moving through the area this morning will result in
below normal temperatures today with highs in the 50s north to 70s
along the Rio Grande.  As of 09z the front appears to be located
near the Pecos River.  The wind will come back around to the south
late in the day and aid the warm up Sunday.  Highs Sunday back into
the 70s and continue through Tuesday.  The upper trough
Tuesday/Wednesday will push a cold front through the area with
cooler temps Wednesday through Friday.

With little low level moisture to work with will continue the dry
forecast through next Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front has moved through most of the Permian Basin early this
morning with very good RH recovery across these areas. Elsewhere RH
recovery has been fairly poor thus far. Winds will become southerly
across the east today with westerly winds returning across the
western half of the CWA. Areas out west will see min RH/s drop to
near 10 percent this afternoon but thankfully wind speeds will
remain below 20 mph most locations. The exception will be for the
Guadalupe Mountains where critical fire weather conditions are
expected to develop as winds increase to 30-35mph sustained with
gusts up to 50mph. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect this
afternoon for the Guadalupe Mountains.

Min RH/s near 10 percent can be expected areawide Sunday with west
winds increasing across the region. Confidence is high that critical
fire weather conditions will develop across the Guadalupe Mountains
given the high winds expected. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued
for this area. The adjacent plains of Southeast NM and West TX could
also see a brief period of near critical wind speeds however
confidence was not high enough at this time to include these areas
in the watch. Will continue to monitor the potential and make
adjustments later if needed. Otherwise, elevated to near critical
fire weather could occur Monday and Tuesday as well, so stay
tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  42  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       65  36  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         67  43  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  43  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 58  39  60  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          56  35  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          65  27  73  34 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           60  41  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         60  41  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           64  36  76  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

27/72
039
FXUS64 KMAF 250427
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1027 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will continue as a weak wind shift/front moves
through overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  31  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72  30  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         86  44  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  76  37  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 63  33  60  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          65  27  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          70  24  66  28 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           67  32  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         69  33  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74  30  66  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Saturday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Saturday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/29
600
FXUS64 KMAF 242322
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
522 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Strong westerly
winds across the western terminals will diminish shortly. Another
cold front will push south overnight with northeasterly winds
around 10 kts taking over.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows dry, NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico this afternoon.  This should transition to zonal thru
Saturday night as an upper trough off the PacNW coast digs south to
CA by 12Z Sunday.  At the sfc, the cold front continues moderating
afternoon highs, which should top out in the 60s most locations.
Overnight, models backdoor a secondary shot of cold air into the
area, for an even cooler day Saturday.  Despite this, main concerns
continue to be fire wx, as moisture return remains non-existent
attm.  See Fire Wx Discussion below for more details thru Saturday.

Return flow resumes Sunday under zonal flow aloft, and temperatures
rebound to above-normal by Sunday afternoon.  Forecast soundings mix
to above H7 during the afternoon, bringing 40-50kt westerlies to the
sfc in the Guadalupes.  Latest NAM shows a decent mtn wave signature
there Sunday afternoon, so we`ve issued a watch.  W/little moisture
recovery in place, widespread critical fire wx conditions are once
again anticipated.  We considered issuing a watch, but w/2 RFWs in
effect already, to avoid complicating things, we`ll wait until
the next issuance (or the next) to pull the trigger.

Monday and Tuesday are up in the air regarding fire wx.  Flow aloft
gradually transitions to SW by Tuesday afternoon, w/temps remaining
above-normal.  Models had been advertising stronger winds Tuesday
afternoon, but are now hinting at Monday afternoon.  Regardless,
both days look like continuing critical fire wx.  Once models come
into better agreement, specific areas/times can be delineated.

Unfortunately, warm wx comes to an end Tuesday night/Wednesday as a
strong cold front moves through the region, taking temps below normal
Wednesday/Thursday before climbing back to near-normal by Friday.
Grids stay dry, as moisture return remains nil.

FIRE WEATHER...

Temperatures today will be near normal across the northern 2/3rds of
the Permian Basin and portions of southeast New Mexico but above
normal elsewhere.  Minimum RH values this afternoon are expected to
be 15 percent or below across all but the Western Low Rolling
Plains, northeast Permian Basin, and northern portions of Lea
County. 20 foot winds of 20 mph or greater are expected across areas
south and west of the Pecos River, the Guadalupe Mountains,
southeast New Mexico plains, and the far northwest Permian Basin
this afternoon.  These areas are expected to be in very high to
extreme fire danger today and are in a Red Flag Warning into this
evening.  A cold front will backdoor into the area tonight and
tomorrow allowing RH values to improve across the eastern parts of
the area; however, winds will become southerly to southwesterly
Saturday afternoon allowing low RH values to spread across at least
the western half of the CWA. Winds tomorrow afternoon are expected
to be below 20 mph across the area except in the Guadalupe
Mountains.  A Red Flag Warning is in effect for tomorrow afternoon
across the Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  64  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       30  67  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  69  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  37  68  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 33  60  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          27  60  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          24  66  28  72 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           32  64  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         33  65  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           30  66  36  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Saturday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Saturday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/29
551
FXUS64 KMAF 242045
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows dry, NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico this afternoon.  This should transition to zonal thru
Saturday night as an upper trough off the PacNW coast digs south to
CA by 12Z Sunday.  At the sfc, the cold front continues moderating
afternoon highs, which should top out in the 60s most locations.
Overnight, models backdoor a secondary shot of cold air into the
area, for an even cooler day Saturday.  Despite this, main concerns
continue to be fire wx, as moisture return remains non-existent
attm.  See Fire Wx Discussion below for more details thru Saturday.

Return flow resumes Sunday under zonal flow aloft, and temperatures
rebound to above-normal by Sunday afternoon.  Forecast soundings mix
to above H7 during the afternoon, bringing 40-50kt westerlies to the
sfc in the Guadalupes.  Latest NAM shows a decent mtn wave signature
there Sunday afternoon, so we`ve issued a watch.  W/little moisture
recovery in place, widespread critical fire wx conditions are once
again anticipated.  We considered issuing a watch, but w/2 RFWs in
effect already, to avoid complicating things, we`ll wait until
the next issuance (or the next) to pull the trigger.

Monday and Tuesday are up in the air regarding fire wx.  Flow aloft
gradually transitions to SW by Tuesday afternoon, w/temps remaining
above-normal.  Models had been advertising stronger winds Tuesday
afternoon, but are now hinting at Monday afternoon.  Regardless,
both days look like continuing critical fire wx.  Once models come
into better agreement, specific areas/times can be delineated.

Unfortunately, warm wx comes to an end Tuesday night/Wednesday as a
strong cold front moves through the region, taking temps below normal
Wednesday/Thursday before climbing back to near-normal by Friday.
Grids stay dry, as moisture return remains nil.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Temperatures today will be near normal across the northern 2/3rds of
the Permian Basin and portions of southeast New Mexico but above
normal elsewhere.  Minimum RH values this afternoon are expected to
be 15 percent or below across all but the Western Low Rolling
Plains, northeast Permian Basin, and northern portions of Lea
County. 20 foot winds of 20 mph or greater are expected across areas
south and west of the Pecos River, the Guadalupe Mountains,
southeast New Mexico plains, and the far northwest Permian Basin
this afternoon.  These areas are expected to be in very high to
extreme fire danger today and are in a Red Flag Warning into this
evening.  A cold front will backdoor into the area tonight and
tomorrow allowing RH values to improve across the eastern parts of
the area; however, winds will become southerly to southwesterly
Saturday afternoon allowing low RH values to spread across at least
the western half of the CWA. Winds tomorrow afternoon are expected
to be below 20 mph across the area except in the Guadalupe
Mountains.  A Red Flag Warning is in effect for tomorrow afternoon
across the Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  64  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       30  67  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  69  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  37  68  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 33  60  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          27  60  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          24  66  28  72 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           32  64  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         33  65  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           30  66  36  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Saturday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Saturday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

80/44
002
FXUS64 KMAF 241714
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1114 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds are
expected to eventually become gusty out of the northwest to west
at all terminals this afternoon although timing is uncertain at
MAF and INK due to a cold front impacting the area. Winds will
weaken this evening and become easterly to northeasterly at most
terminals Saturday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low over the Central Plains this morning with a broad trough
extending to Mexico will move east today.  another upper trough will
move ashore the West Coast late Saturday and weaken as it moves down
across AZ Sunday and over the area early Monday.  Another upper
trough will follow this one but stay farther north crossing the
plains early Wednesday.

Have a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains... already been
hitting... may decrease a little in the morning then pick up again
during the afternoon.  Have extended the High Wind Warning out
through 00z.

Surface cold front moving down through the Panhandle this morning
will move into the area but not expected to make much progress
through the CWA.  West wind this morning will come around to the NW
during the day.  A secondary push tonight will send it southward
with the wind coming around to the north.  Wind quickly comes back
around to the south Saturday.

Rio Grande Village reported a high of 96 degrees yesterday.
Temperatures will be much cooler today with highs only in the 60s
north of the Pecos River... with 50s and 60s on Saturday.  Readings
will still be pushing 80 along the Rio Grande.  Warmer temps return
Sunday as 70s spread northward.  Another front expected early
Wednesday will knock highs back down into the 60s through the end of
the work week.

Rain chances very low with the lack of moisture but some low pops
may creep into the forecast again the end of next week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Winds remain below 20 mph for most locations tonight however winds
have remained elevated at a few isolated locations. Overnight
relative humidity recovery has been poor thus far with rh/s in the
teens and 20s early this morning. Temperatures will not be as warm
today with highs roughly 15 degrees cooler, however west to
northwest winds will push very dry air into the region which will
result in minimum RH/s rapidly dropping to 5-10 percent areawide.
Critical fire weather conditions are expected today with winds 20 to
25 mph sustained across southeast New Mexico, far NW Permian Basin
and areas west of the Pecos River. A Red Flag Warning is in effect
until this evening, at which point winds will diminish and fire
weather conditions will improve. A cold front will backdoor into the
Permian Basin tonight, resulting in fairly good recovery across the
Permian Basin but poor elsewhere. More critical fire weather could
occur Sunday and Tuesday, so stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  31  60  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       69  31  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         80  42  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72  36  66  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  30  57  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          62  27  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          64  25  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           69  31  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         69  32  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           70  30  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
499
FXUS64 KMAF 241122
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
522 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. W/NW winds generally 15-20kt sustained
with gusts 25-30kt through this afternoon. Light winds tonight then
a cold front expected toward the end of this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low over the Central Plains this morning with a broad trough
extending to Mexico will move east today.  another upper trough will
move ashore the West Coast late Saturday and weaken as it moves down
across AZ Sunday and over the area early Monday.  Another upper
trough will follow this one but stay farther north crossing the
plains early Wednesday.

Have a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains... already been
hitting... may decrease a little in the morning then pick up again
during the afternoon.  Have extended the High Wind Warning out
through 00z.

Surface cold front moving down through the Panhandle this morning
will move into the area but not expected to make much progress
through the CWA.  West wind this morning will come around to the NW
during the day.  A secondary push tonight will send it southward
with the wind coming around to the north.  Wind quickly comes back
around to the south Saturday.

Rio Grande Village reported a high of 96 degrees yesterday.
Temperatures will be much cooler today with highs only in the 60s
north of the Pecos River... with 50s and 60s on Saturday.  Readings
will still be pushing 80 along the Rio Grande.  Warmer temps return
Sunday as 70s spread northward.  Another front expected early
Wednesday will knock highs back down into the 60s through the end of
the work week.

Rain chances very low with the lack of moisture but some low pops
may creep into the forecast again the end of next week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Winds remain below 20 mph for most locations tonight however winds
have remained elevated at a few isolated locations. Overnight
relative humidity recovery has been poor thus far with rh/s in the
teens and 20s early this morning. Temperatures will not be as warm
today with highs roughly 15 degrees cooler, however west to
northwest winds will push very dry air into the region which will
result in minimum RH/s rapidly dropping to 5-10 percent areawide.
Critical fire weather conditions are expected today with winds 20 to
25 mph sustained across southeast New Mexico, far NW Permian Basin
and areas west of the Pecos River. A Red Flag Warning is in effect
until this evening, at which point winds will diminish and fire
weather conditions will improve. A cold front will backdoor into the
Permian Basin tonight, resulting in fairly good recovery across the
Permian Basin but poor elsewhere. More critical fire weather could
occur Sunday and Tuesday, so stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  31  60  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       69  31  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         80  42  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72  36  66  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  30  57  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          62  27  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          64  25  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           69  31  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         69  32  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           70  30  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning to 8 PM
     CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

27/72/27
073
FXUS64 KMAF 241007
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
407 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low over the Central Plains this morning with a broad trough
extending to Mexico will move east today.  another upper trough will
move ashore the West Coast late Saturday and weaken as it moves down
across AZ Sunday and over the area early Monday.  Another upper
trough will follow this one but stay farther north crossing the
plains early Wednesday.

Have a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains... already been
hitting... may decrease a little in the morning then pick up again
during the afternoon.  Have extended the High Wind Warning out
through 00z.

Surface cold front moving down through the Panhandle this morning
will move into the area but not expected to make much progress
through the CWA.  West wind this morning will come around to the NW
during the day.  A secondary push tonight will send it southward
with the wind coming around to the north.  Wind quickly comes back
around to the south Saturday.

Rio Grande Village reported a high of 96 degrees yesterday.
Temperatures will be much cooler today with highs only in the 60s
north of the Pecos River... with 50s and 60s on Saturday.  Readings
will still be pushing 80 along the Rio Grande.  Warmer temps return
Sunday as 70s spread northward.  Another front expected early
Wednesday will knock highs back down into the 60s through the end of
the work week.

Rain chances very low with the lack of moisture but some low pops
may creep into the forecast again the end of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds remain below 20 mph for most locations tonight however winds
have remained elevated at a few isolated locations. Overnight
relative humidity recovery has been poor thus far with rh/s in the
teens and 20s early this morning. Temperatures will not be as warm
today with highs roughly 15 degrees cooler, however west to
northwest winds will push very dry air into the region which will
result in minimum RH/s rapidly dropping to 5-10 percent areawide.
Critical fire weather conditions are expected today with winds 20 to
25 mph sustained across southeast New Mexico, far NW Permian Basin
and areas west of the Pecos River. A Red Flag Warning is in effect
until this evening, at which point winds will diminish and fire
weather conditions will improve. A cold front will backdoor into the
Permian Basin tonight, resulting in fairly good recovery across the
Permian Basin but poor elsewhere. More critical fire weather could
occur Sunday and Tuesday, so stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  31  60  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       69  31  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         80  42  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72  36  66  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  30  57  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          62  27  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          64  25  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           69  31  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         69  32  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           70  30  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning to 8 PM
     CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

27/72
703
FXUS64 KMAF 240433
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1033 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide through the period. West to
northwest winds will increase and become gusty at all area
terminals, but KCNM and KPEQ could have these winds begin as early
as 24/09Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     43  67  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  68  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         53  79  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  48  70  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 37  57  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          37  62  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          36  65  27  66 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           44  69  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         43  69  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           41  69  30  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
120
FXUS64 KMAF 240203
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
803 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.UPDATE...

Update to allow the Red Flag Warning to expire, and expand the
Fire Weather Watch for Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Westerly winds will decrease areawide this evening as temperatures
cool.  Although isolated locations may continue to have critical
fire weather conditions between after 24/02Z, winds in these areas
will decrease more by 24/03Z and likely alleviate fire weather
concerns.  Therefore, will allow the Red Flag Warning to expire at
24/02Z.  RH/s will also rise above 15 percent, but recovery
overnight will be poor.  Temperatures will not be as warm Friday,
however west to northwest winds will push very dry air over the
region which will result in minimum RH/s Friday afternoon of 5-10
percent areawide.  The west to northwest winds will pick up fairly
early, perhaps exceeding 20 mph sustained along and west of the
Pecos River as early as 24/15Z.  These winds could last several
hours, so will add southwest Texas to the Fire Weather Watch Friday
and tentatively start the conditions at 24/15Z as RH/s will likely
drop below 15 percent in many of these areas that early.

A cold front will backdoor into the Permian Basin Friday night and
result in good recovery.  To the south and west of the front,
recovery will be poor.  West to southwest 20 foot winds will
increase to at least 15-20 mph over portions of the Guadalupe
Mountains, SE NM plains, the Van Horn area and the Davis Mountains.
A Fire Danger Statement is looking most likely Saturday afternoon.
More critical fire weather could occur Sunday and Tuesday, so stay
tuned.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 603 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

UPDATE...

Update to allow the High Wind Warning for the southeastern New
Mexico plains, and the Wind Advisory over west Texas, to expire.
The High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains will continue
into Friday afternoon.  Will send another update later this
evening to address fire weather concerns.

DISCUSSION...

Westerly winds are gradually diminishing across the plains of
southeastern New Mexico and west Texas.  This trend will
continue, especially after sunset, so will allow the High Wind
Warning for southeastern New Mexico, and the Wind Advisory for
west Texas, to expire at 600 pm CST.

Strong winds will persist in the Guadalupe Mountains tonight,
Friday morning and early Friday afternoon as a belt of strong mid
level winds persists over the region.  Since these stronger mid
level winds will likely mix down periodically tonight and Friday,
the High Wind Warning will continue there until 200 pm MST.

Critical fire weather conditions will gradually improve this
evening as westerly 20 foot winds decrease and relative humidity
slowly increases.  There does appear to be a fire upstream of
Presidio along the Rio Grande River on satellite imagery, so
diminishing winds will aid control.  Will still likely allow the
Red Flag Warning to expire at 24/02Z.  For Friday, we may add
several locations over southwest Texas to the Fire Weather watch.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 506 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with mostly
clear skies. Gusty west winds will begin to subside after 00z but
remain somewhat elevated overnight. Winds will strengthen out of
the west Friday mid morning then become northwest around 18z with
gusts near 20 kts. Winds are then expected to become westerly
again by Friday evening.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

A strong upper level storm system currently in the northern Rockies
will move east onto the northern Plains late tonight and Friday.
Windy to very windy conditions will continue across much of west
Texas and southeast New Mexico through sunset in the strong
gradient with deep mixing through the column. Will allow the
various wind warnings and advisories to expire early this evening
as surface winds decrease and decouple from the stronger winds
aloft as the storm system pulls away. The exception will be to
keep the High Wind Warning going for the Guadalupe Mountains
through Friday afternoon where winds aloft will remain strong
through Friday afternoon.

As the upper system moves northeast of the forecast area the
associated surface Pacific cold front will move through the region
tonight, bringing cooler temperatures overnight and Friday.
Temperatures, however, will still be well above normal with mostly
clear skies expected. A dry and stronger reinforcing cold front
will push through Friday night bringing more normal temperatures
to the area Friday night and Saturday.

Beyond Saturday a strong and dry flow aloft will continue through
next Tuesday. High temperatures are expected to jump again to
well above normal values through this period with mostly clear
skies and downslope flow. A couple of quick moving storm systems
will probably bring another bout of windy to very windy conditions
area wide Sunday and next Tuesday. Another dry cold front is
expected to push through the forecast area Tuesday night with
cooler but near normal temperatures expected next Wednesday and
Thursday behind the front.

FIRE WEATHER...
At 18Z, Red Flag conditions were noted from Roswell se to Marfa and
Fort Stockton. Strongest 20 foot winds were over Southeast New
Mexico, while the Texas Trans Pecos was cratering on RH. These
two areas are forecast to increase/overlap one another as the
afternoon wears on. RFW conditions are anticipated to diminish
early evening, but RH recovery is forecast to be poor over much of
the region overnight. This will prime the region for another
critical fire weather day Friday, as critical RH will not be far
off, and ERCs above-normal today) inch toward the 90th percentile.
Although a cold front is forecast to bring cooler temperatures to
the area Friday, this should have little, if any, effect on
afternoon RH, as the airmass remains dry. Main concerns will be
winds behind the front, which will be most pronounced over
Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect for this area, and with little changes
to Friday`s grids, we see no need to change it attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     43  67  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  68  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         53  79  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  48  70  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 37  57  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          37  62  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          36  65  27  66 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           44  69  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         43  69  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           41  69  30  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
907
FXUS64 KMAF 240003
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
603 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.UPDATE...

Update to allow the High Wind Warning for the southeastern New
Mexico plains, and the Wind Advisory over west Texas, to expire.
The High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains will continue
into Friday afternoon.  Will send another update later this
evening to address fire weather concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Westerly winds are gradually diminishing across the plains of
southeastern New Mexico and west Texas.  This trend will
continue, especially after sunset, so will allow the High Wind
Warning for southeastern New Mexico, and the Wind Advisory for
west Texas, to expire at 600 pm CST.

Strong winds will persist in the Guadalupe Mountains tonight,
Friday morning and early Friday afternoon as a belt of strong mid
level winds persists over the region.  Since these stronger mid
level winds will likely mix down periodically tonight and Friday,
the High Wind Warning will continue there until 200 pm MST.

Critical fire weather conditions will gradually improve this
evening as westerly 20 foot winds decrease and relative humidity
slowly increases.  There does appear to be a fire upstream of
Presidio along the Rio Grande River on satellite imagery, so
diminishing winds will aid control.  Will still likely allow the
Red Flag Warning to expire at 24/02Z.  For Friday, we may add
several locations over southwest Texas to the Fire Weather watch.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 506 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with mostly
clear skies. Gusty west winds will begin to subside after 00z but
remain somewhat elevated overnight. Winds will strengthen out of
the west Friday mid morning then become northwest around 18z with
gusts near 20 kts. Winds are then expected to become westerly
again by Friday evening.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

A strong upper level storm system currently in the northern Rockies
will move east onto the northern Plains late tonight and Friday.
Windy to very windy conditions will continue across much of west
Texas and southeast New Mexico through sunset in the strong
gradient with deep mixing through the column. Will allow the
various wind warnings and advisories to expire early this evening
as surface winds decrease and decouple from the stronger winds
aloft as the storm system pulls away. The exception will be to
keep the High Wind Warning going for the Guadalupe Mountains
through Friday afternoon where winds aloft will remain strong
through Friday afternoon.

As the upper system moves northeast of the forecast area the
associated surface Pacific cold front will move through the region
tonight, bringing cooler temperatures overnight and Friday.
Temperatures, however, will still be well above normal with mostly
clear skies expected. A dry and stronger reinforcing cold front
will push through Friday night bringing more normal temperatures
to the area Friday night and Saturday.

Beyond Saturday a strong and dry flow aloft will continue through
next Tuesday. High temperatures are expected to jump again to
well above normal values through this period with mostly clear
skies and downslope flow. A couple of quick moving storm systems
will probably bring another bout of windy to very windy conditions
area wide Sunday and next Tuesday. Another dry cold front is
expected to push through the forecast area Tuesday night with
cooler but near normal temperatures expected next Wednesday and
Thursday behind the front.

FIRE WEATHER...
At 18Z, Red Flag conditions were noted from Roswell se to Marfa and
Fort Stockton. Strongest 20 foot winds were over Southeast New
Mexico, while the Texas Trans Pecos was cratering on RH. These
two areas are forecast to increase/overlap one another as the
afternoon wears on. RFW conditions are anticipated to diminish
early evening, but RH recovery is forecast to be poor over much of
the region overnight. This will prime the region for another
critical fire weather day Friday, as critical RH will not be far
off, and ERCs above-normal today) inch toward the 90th percentile.
Although a cold front is forecast to bring cooler temperatures to
the area Friday, this should have little, if any, effect on
afternoon RH, as the airmass remains dry. Main concerns will be
winds behind the front, which will be most pronounced over
Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect for this area, and with little changes
to Friday`s grids, we see no need to change it attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     43  67  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  68  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         53  79  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  48  70  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 37  57  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          37  62  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          36  65  27  66 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           44  69  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         43  69  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           41  69  30  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$
854
FXUS64 KMAF 232306
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
506 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with mostly
clear skies. Gusty west winds will begin to subside after 00z but
remain somewhat elevated overnight. Winds will strengthen out of
the west Friday mid morning then become northwest around 18z with
gusts near 20 kts. Winds are then expected to become westerly
again by Friday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper level storm system currently in the northern Rockies
will move east onto the northern Plains late tonight and Friday.
Windy to very windy conditions will continue across much of west
Texas and southeast New Mexico through sunset in the strong
gradient with deep mixing through the column. Will allow the
various wind warnings and advisories to expire early this evening
as surface winds decrease and decouple from the stronger winds
aloft as the storm system pulls away. The exception will be to
keep the High Wind Warning going for the Guadalupe Mountains
through Friday afternoon where winds aloft will remain strong
through Friday afternoon.

As the upper system moves northeast of the forecast area the
associated surface Pacific cold front will move through the region
tonight, bringing cooler temperatures overnight and Friday.
Temperatures, however, will still be well above normal with mostly
clear skies expected. A dry and stronger reinforcing cold front
will push through Friday night bringing more normal temperatures
to the area Friday night and Saturday.

Beyond Saturday a strong and dry flow aloft will continue through
next Tuesday. High temperatures are expected to jump again to
well above normal values through this period with mostly clear
skies and downslope flow. A couple of quick moving storm systems
will probably bring another bout of windy to very windy conditions
area wide Sunday and next Tuesday. Another dry cold front is
expected to push through the forecast area Tuesday night with
cooler but near normal temperatures expected next Wednesday and
Thursday behind the front.

FIRE WEATHER...
At 18Z, Red Flag conditions were noted from Roswell se to Marfa and
Fort Stockton. Strongest 20 foot winds were over Southeast New
Mexico, while the Texas Trans Pecos was cratering on RH. These
two areas are forecast to increase/overlap one another as the
afternoon wears on. RFW conditions are anticipated to diminish
early evening, but RH recovery is forecast to be poor over much of
the region overnight. This will prime the region for another
critical fire weather day Friday, as critical RH will not be far
off, and ERCs above-normal today) inch toward the 90th percentile.
Although a cold front is forecast to bring cooler temperatures to
the area Friday, this should have little, if any, effect on
afternoon RH, as the airmass remains dry. Main concerns will be
winds behind the front, which will be most pronounced over
Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect for this area, and with little changes
to Friday`s grids, we see no need to change it attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     43  67  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  68  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         53  79  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  48  70  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 37  57  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          37  62  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          36  65  27  66 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           44  69  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         43  69  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           41  69  30  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

&&

$$

99/99/
565
FXUS64 KMAF 232011
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
211 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper level storm system currently in the northern Rockies
will move east onto the northern Plains late tonight and Friday.
Windy to very windy conditions will continue across much of west
Texas and southeast New Mexico through sunset in the strong
gradient with deep mixing through the column. Will allow the
various wind warnings and advisories to expire early this evening
as surface winds decrease and decouple from the stronger winds
aloft as the storm system pulls away. The exception will be to
keep the High Wind Warning going for the Guadalupe Mountains
through Friday afternoon where winds aloft will remain strong
through Friday afternoon.

As the upper system moves northeast of the forecast area the
associated surface Pacific cold front will move through the region
tonight, bringing cooler temperatures overnight and Friday.
Temperatures, however, will still be well above normal with mostly
clear skies expected. A dry and stronger reinforcing cold front
will push through Friday night bringing more normal temperatures
to the area Friday night and Saturday.

Beyond Saturday a strong and dry flow aloft will continue through
next Tuesday. High temperatures are expected to jump again to
well above normal values through this period with mostly clear
skies and downslope flow. A couple of quick moving storm systems
will probably bring another bout of windy to very windy conditions
area wide Sunday and next Tuesday. Another dry cold front is
expected to push through the forecast area Tuesday night with
cooler but near normal temperatures expected next Wednesday and
Thursday behind the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
At 18Z, Red Flag conditions were noted from Roswell se to Marfa and
Fort Stockton. Strongest 20 foot winds were over Southeast New
Mexico, while the Texas Trans Pecos was cratering on RH. These
two areas are forecast to increase/overlap one another as the
afternoon wears on. RFW conditions are anticipated to diminish
early evening, but RH recovery is forecast to be poor over much of
the region overnight. This will prime the region for another
critical fire weather day Friday, as critical RH will not be far
off, and ERCs above-normal today) inch toward the 90th percentile.
Although a cold front is forecast to bring cooler temperatures to
the area Friday, this should have little, if any, effect on
afternoon RH, as the airmass remains dry. Main concerns will be
winds behind the front, which will be most pronounced over
Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect for this area, and with little changes
to Friday`s grids, we see no need to change it attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     43  67  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  68  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         53  79  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  48  70  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 37  57  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          37  62  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          36  65  27  66 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           44  69  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         43  69  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           41  69  30  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

&&

$$

44/12
787
FXUS64 KMAF 231551
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
951 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Westerly winds continue next 24 hours, becoming gusty this
afternoon as an upper trough passes to the north. MVFR
visibilities will be possible this afternoon due to BLDU.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. A few high clouds are
anticipated.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 506 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Very windy conditions expected to develop this afternoon with west
winds gusting to 40kts. Visbilities may be reduced to MVFR with
BLDU at some of the TAF sites, but the main question is how much
recent rains will keep the dust from blowing. For now will only
restrict VIS below VFR at CNM where winds will be strongest, and
make mention of 6SM BLDU at MAF/HOB. Winds will diminish after
sunset.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 427 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

.A very dry, warm and windy day ahead for most areas, leading
to critical/extreme fire weather conditions across some areas.
Please see the Fire Weather section below for more details...

An upper trough, currently swinging through the Rockies, will slowly
move into the Central Plains today with strong upper winds moving
overhead. Meanwhile, a lee surface trough will continue to deepen
across eastern CO resulting in a tightening surface pressure
gradient through NM and W TX. West winds will increase by mid
morning as the pressure gradient tightens then as mixing commences
shortly thereafter, winds will increase further as stronger winds
aloft mix down toward the surface. Will likely see the highest winds
across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and the SE NM Plains and a
High Wind Warning is in effect for these areas mid morning through
early evening. Farther east and south, winds look to be slightly
weaker so will go with a Wind Advisory for the Van Horn and HWY 54
Corridor, Davis Mountains, the Trans Pecos region and much of the
Permian Basin. A few of these locations will likely see high end
Advisory and potentially a brief period of High Wind but it should
be fairly isolated. The potential for blowing dust remains therefore
will keep mention in the forecast for this afternoon. Wind speeds
will diminish after sunset however high winds look to persist across
the Guadalupe Mountains overnight through Friday morning so will
continue the Warning for this area. Otherwise, temperatures will
once again warm to near record highs today with readings in the mid-
upper 80s across much of the region.

Not as windy Friday however somewhat breezy conditions and
temperatures roughly 15 degrees cooler can be expected. A cold front
Saturday will knock temps down a bit further but this will be short-
lived with the return of strong westerly, down-sloping winds by
Sunday and high temperatures will rebound into the 70s. Warm and dry
conditions will persist and there is a good possibility for
critical/extreme fire weather conditions once again Sunday and next
Tuesday with gusty west winds forecast each day.

FIRE WEATHER...
Extremely critical fire weather conditions are still expected across
much of the area today as an upper level trough moves across the
Rockies. This trough will increase west winds today before veering
from the northwest tonight as a cold front moves through the area.
The front will bring cooler temperatures tomorrow, but very dry air
will still remain and winds behind the front will reach 20 mph in
southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and adjacent
plains so have issued a Fire Weather Watch. A second shot of cooler
air arrives Friday night ending the critical fire weather threat for
at least a day before winds begin to increase again Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  44  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  42  68  31 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         90  53  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  87  48  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 68  37  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          76  38  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          77  37  65  27 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           85  44  69  32 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         85  43  69  32 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           84  41  69  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

&&

$$

44/12/44
257
FXUS64 KMAF 231106
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
506 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Very windy conditions expected to develop this afternoon with west
winds gusting to 40kts. Visbilities may be reduced to MVFR with
BLDU at some of the TAF sites, but the main question is how much
recent rains will keep the dust from blowing. For now will only
restrict VIS below VFR at CNM where winds will be strongest, and
make mention of 6SM BLDU at MAF/HOB. Winds will diminish after
sunset.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 427 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

..A very dry, warm and windy day ahead for most areas, leading
to critical/extreme fire weather conditions across some areas.
Please see the Fire Weather section below for more details...

An upper trough, currently swinging through the Rockies, will slowly
move into the Central Plains today with strong upper winds moving
overhead. Meanwhile, a lee surface trough will continue to deepen
across eastern CO resulting in a tightening surface pressure
gradient through NM and W TX. West winds will increase by mid
morning as the pressure gradient tightens then as mixing commences
shortly thereafter, winds will increase further as stronger winds
aloft mix down toward the surface. Will likely see the highest winds
across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and the SE NM Plains and a
High Wind Warning is in effect for these areas mid morning through
early evening. Farther east and south, winds look to be slightly
weaker so will go with a Wind Advisory for the Van Horn and HWY 54
Corridor, Davis Mountains, the Trans Pecos region and much of the
Permian Basin. A few of these locations will likely see high end
Advisory and potentially a brief period of High Wind but it should
be fairly isolated. The potential for blowing dust remains therefore
will keep mention in the forecast for this afternoon. Wind speeds
will diminish after sunset however high winds look to persist across
the Guadalupe Mountains overnight through Friday morning so will
continue the Warning for this area. Otherwise, temperatures will
once again warm to near record highs today with readings in the mid-
upper 80s across much of the region.

Not as windy Friday however somewhat breezy conditions and
temperatures roughly 15 degrees cooler can be expected. A cold front
Saturday will knock temps down a bit further but this will be short-
lived with the return of strong westerly, down-sloping winds by
Sunday and high temperatures will rebound into the 70s. Warm and dry
conditions will persist and there is a good possibility for
critical/extreme fire weather conditions once again Sunday and next
Tuesday with gusty west winds forecast each day.

FIRE WEATHER...
Extremely critical fire weather conditions are still expected across
much of the area today as an upper level trough moves across the
Rockies. This trough will increase west winds today before veering
from the northwest tonight as a cold front moves through the area.
The front will bring cooler temperatures tomorrow, but very dry air
will still remain and winds behind the front will reach 20 mph in
southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and adjacent
plains so have issued a Fire Weather Watch. A second shot of cooler
air arrives Friday night ending the critical fire weather threat for
at least a day before winds begin to increase again Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  44  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  42  68  31 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         90  53  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  87  48  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 68  37  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          76  38  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          77  37  65  27 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           85  44  69  32 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         85  43  69  32 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           84  41  69  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 2 PM MST Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ this morning to 8 PM
     CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 2 PM MST Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     Wind Advisory from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to 6 PM CST /5 PM
     MST/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Howard-Loving-Martin-
     Midland-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

99/99/10
887
FXUS64 KMAF 231027
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
427 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...A very dry, warm and windy day ahead for most areas, leading
to critical/extreme fire weather conditions across some areas.
Please see the Fire Weather section below for more details...

An upper trough, currently swinging through the Rockies, will slowly
move into the Central Plains today with strong upper winds moving
overhead. Meanwhile, a lee surface trough will continue to deepen
across eastern CO resulting in a tightening surface pressure
gradient through NM and W TX. West winds will increase by mid
morning as the pressure gradient tightens then as mixing commences
shortly thereafter, winds will increase further as stronger winds
aloft mix down toward the surface. Will likely see the highest winds
across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and the SE NM Plains and a
High Wind Warning is in effect for these areas mid morning through
early evening. Farther east and south, winds look to be slightly
weaker so will go with a Wind Advisory for the Van Horn and HWY 54
Corridor, Davis Mountains, the Trans Pecos region and much of the
Permian Basin. A few of these locations will likely see high end
Advisory and potentially a brief period of High Wind but it should
be fairly isolated. The potential for blowing dust remains therefore
will keep mention in the forecast for this afternoon. Wind speeds
will diminish after sunset however high winds look to persist across
the Guadalupe Mountains overnight through Friday morning so will
continue the Warning for this area. Otherwise, temperatures will
once again warm to near record highs today with readings in the mid-
upper 80s across much of the region.

Not as windy Friday however somewhat breezy conditions and
temperatures roughly 15 degrees cooler can be expected. A cold front
Saturday will knock temps down a bit further but this will be short-
lived with the return of strong westerly, down-sloping winds by
Sunday and high temperatures will rebound into the 70s. Warm and dry
conditions will persist and there is a good possibility for
critical/extreme fire weather conditions once again Sunday and next
Tuesday with gusty west winds forecast each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Extremely critical fire weather conditions are still expected across
much of the area today as an upper level trough moves across the
Rockies. This trough will increase west winds today before veering
from the northwest tonight as a cold front moves through the area.
The front will bring cooler temperatures tomorrow, but very dry air
will still remain and winds behind the front will reach 20 mph in
southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and adjacent
plains so have issued a Fire Weather Watch. A second shot of cooler
air arrives Friday night ending the critical fire weather threat for
at least a day before winds begin to increase again Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  44  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  42  68  31 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         90  53  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  87  48  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 68  37  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          76  38  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          77  37  65  27 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           85  44  69  32 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         85  43  69  32 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           84  41  69  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 2 PM MST Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ this morning to 8 PM
     CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 2 PM MST Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     Wind Advisory from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to 6 PM CST /5 PM
     MST/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Howard-Loving-Martin-
     Midland-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

10/27
896
FXUS64 KMAF 230423
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1023 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the night and morning.
Westerly winds will increase to 25-35kt sustained by 23/17Z at all
area terminals, with gusts possibly rising to 50kt at some,
particularly KCNM.  Will add MVFR visibility in blowing dust to
KCNM, with other area terminals possibly added on the next
forecast issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/

A powerful upper level storm system moving onto the northwest
Pacific coast will move east through the Rockies tonight and
track across the central Plains on Thursday. Windy to very windy
conditions are expected to develop late Thursday morning and
continue through Thursday afternoon across southeast New Mexico and
much of west Texas. Forecast soundings from the GFS/Canadian/ECMWF
guidance indicate the potential for significantly stronger winds
than forecast by MOS data (characteristic error). The stronger
sounding winds look more reasonable given 40 knot mix layer winds
depicted with strong downslope mixing and consensus 850 millibar
winds of 35 knots. For this reason will issue a High Wind Watch
for the southeast New Mexico plains, Upper Trans Pecos, and much
of the northern Permian Basin for Thursday afternoon. It looks
like it will be a closer call further south in the central Permian
Basin. Will let the mid shift decide to make the final call
regarding any wind advisories or warnings for these areas. Will
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a warning for the Guadalupe
Mountains Thursday and extend it into Friday as the winds aloft
remain stout over that region. It will also be windy in the Davis
Mountains, especially above 6000 feet late Thursday night and
Friday. Later shifts will need to monitor that area also for a
possible wind watch, warning or advisory.

Expecting a dust cloud to develop Thursday afternoon over the dry
lake beds of northern Mexico and southern New Mexico in the strong
gradient and advect over the forecast area late Thursday afternoon
and Thursday evening. Will mention patchy blowing dust in the
products. Near record high temperatures are also expected
Thursday, especially across west Texas where low level thermal
ridging, clear skies and downslope flow will prevail.

Beyond Thursday dry and strong flow aloft will continue through
the weekend and into the middle of next week. Except for
Saturday, high temperatures are expected to remain well above
normal. A couple of quick moving storm systems will probably bring
another bout of windy to very windy conditions area wide Sunday
and next Tuesday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical/extreme fire wx conditions are materializing for Thur,
and even Fri, possibly Sun and Tue. Immediate concerns are of
course for Thu. Sustained west winds of 30-50 mph are expected
across the plains and mountains, respectively, high winds are
possible in the plains. High temps will be 15-20 degrees above
normal and with downslope winds min RHs will fall to near 10 pct
in most areas. This pattern is a particular concern as in the past
this type of system has resulted in the multiple occurrence of
large fires. SE NM and nrn PB are of the most concern. Fuels have
been drying and the grasses will certainly be dry, reflected by
what we think will be a very high to extreme fire danger. Red flag
threat indices will be 6-7 with a few as high as 8 expected which
is considered high end critical to extremely critical. Critical
fire wx is expected to continue Fri. We will hold off on issuance
of a watch for Fri now because there are already a large number of
headlines already out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  86  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  80  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         52  90  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  55  88  48  69 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  68  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          47  77  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          41  78  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           51  85  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         51  85  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           47  84  41  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 2 PM MST Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM
     MST/ Thursday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 2 PM MST Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch Thursday afternoon for Andrews-Borden-Dawson-
     Gaines-Howard-Martin-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$
813
FXUS64 KMAF 222308
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
508 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the night and Thursday
morning.  However, strong west winds of 25-35kt sustained, and
gusts as high as 50kt will affect most area terminals Thursday
afternoon.  MVFR visibility from blowing dust may be added in
later issuances.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/

A powerful upper level storm system moving onto the northwest
Pacific coast will move east through the Rockies tonight and
track across the central Plains on Thursday. Windy to very windy
conditions are expected to develop late Thursday morning and
continue through Thursday afternoon across southeast New Mexico and
much of west Texas. Forecast soundings from the GFS/Canadian/ECMWF
guidance indicate the potential for significantly stronger winds
than forecast by MOS data (characteristic error). The stronger
sounding winds look more reasonable given 40 knot mix layer winds
depicted with strong downslope mixing and consensus 850 millibar
winds of 35 knots. For this reason will issue a High Wind Watch
for the southeast New Mexico plains, Upper Trans Pecos, and much
of the northern Permian Basin for Thursday afternoon. It looks
like it will be a closer call further south in the central Permian
Basin. Will let the mid shift decide to make the final call
regarding any wind advisories or warnings for these areas. Will
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a warning for the Guadalupe
Mountains Thursday and extend it into Friday as the winds aloft
remain stout over that region. It will also be windy in the Davis
Mountains, especially above 6000 feet late Thursday night and
Friday. Later shifts will need to monitor that area also for a
possible wind watch, warning or advisory.

Expecting a dust cloud to develop Thursday afternoon over the dry
lake beds of northern Mexico and southern New Mexico in the strong
gradient and advect over the forecast area late Thursday afternoon
and Thursday evening. Will mention patchy blowing dust in the
products. Near record high temperatures are also expected
Thursday, especially across west Texas where low level thermal
ridging, clear skies and downslope flow will prevail.

Beyond Thursday dry and strong flow aloft will continue through
the weekend and into the middle of next week. Except for
Saturday, high temperatures are expected to remain well above
normal. A couple of quick moving storm systems will probably bring
another bout of windy to very windy conditions area wide Sunday
and next Tuesday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical/extreme fire wx conditions are materializing for Thur,
and even Fri, possibly Sun and Tue. Immediate concerns are of
course for Thu. Sustained west winds of 30-50 mph are expected
across the plains and mountains, respectively, high winds are
possible in the plains. High temps will be 15-20 degrees above
normal and with downslope winds min RHs will fall to near 10 pct
in most areas. This pattern is a particular concern as in the past
this type of system has resulted in the multiple occurrence of
large fires. SE NM and nrn PB are of the most concern. Fuels have
been drying and the grasses will certainly be dry, reflected by
what we think will be a very high to extreme fire danger. Red flag
threat indices will be 6-7 with a few as high as 8 expected which
is considered high end critical to extremely critical. Critical
fire wx is expected to continue Fri. We will hold off on issuance
of a watch for Fri now because there are already a large number of
headlines already out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  86  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  80  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         52  90  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  55  88  48  69 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  68  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          47  77  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          41  78  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           51  85  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         51  85  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           47  84  41  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 2 PM MST Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM
     MST/ Thursday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 2 PM MST Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch Thursday afternoon for Andrews-Borden-Dawson-
     Gaines-Howard-Martin-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/
724
FXUS64 KMAF 222051 CCA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...Correction
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
244 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A powerful upper level storm system moving onto the northwest
Pacific coast will move east through the Rockies tonight and
track across the central Plains on Thursday. Windy to very windy
conditions are expected to develop late Thursday morning and
continue through Thursday afternoon across southeast New Mexico and
much of west Texas. Forecast soundings from the GFS/Canadian/ECMWF
guidance indicate the potential for significantly stronger winds
than forecast by MOS data (characteristic error). The stronger
sounding winds look more reasonable given 40 knot mix layer winds
depicted with strong downslope mixing and consensus 850 millibar
winds of 35 knots. For this reason will issue a High Wind Watch
for the southeast New Mexico plains, Upper Trans Pecos, and much
of the northern Permian Basin for Thursday afternoon. It looks
like it will be a closer call further south in the central Permian
Basin. Will let the mid shift decide to make the final call
regarding any wind advisories or warnings for these areas. Will
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a warning for the Guadalupe
Mountains Thursday and extend it into Friday as the winds aloft
remain stout over that region. It will also be windy in the Davis
Mountains, especially above 6000 feet late Thursday night and
Friday. Later shifts will need to monitor that area also for a
possible wind watch, warning or advisory.

Expecting a dust cloud to develop Thursday afternoon over the dry
lake beds of northern Mexico and southern New Mexico in the strong
gradient and advect over the forecast area late Thursday afternoon
and Thursday evening. Will mention patchy blowing dust in the
products. Near record high temperatures are also expected
Thursday, especially across west Texas where low level thermal
ridging, clear skies and downslope flow will prevail.

Beyond Thursday dry and strong flow aloft will continue through
the weekend and into the middle of next week. Except for
Saturday, high temperatures are expected to remain well above
normal. A couple of quick moving storm systems will probably bring
another bout of windy to very windy conditions area wide Sunday
and next Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical/extremely fire wx conditions are materializing for Thur,
and even Fri, possibly Sun and Tue. Immediate concerns are of course
for Thu. Sustained west winds of 30-50 mph are expected across
the plains and mountains, respectively, high winds are possible in
the plains. High temps will be 15-20 degrees above normal and
with downslope winds min RHs will fall to near 10 pct in most
areas. This pattern is a particular concern as in the past this
type of system has resulted in the multiple occurrence of large
fires. SE NM and nrn PB are of the most concern. Fuels have been
drying and the grasses will certainly be dry, reflected by what we
think will be a very high to extreme fire danger. Red flag threat
indices will be 6-7 with a few as high as 8 expected which is
considered high end critical to extremely critical. Critical fire
wx is expected to continue Fri. We will hold off on issuance of a
watch for Fri now because there are already a large number of
headlines already out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  86  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  80  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         52  90  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  55  88  48  69 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  68  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          47  77  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          41  78  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           51  85  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         51  85  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           47  84  41  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 2 PM MST Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM
     MST/ Thursday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 2 PM MST Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch Thursday afternoon for Andrews-Borden-Dawson-
     Gaines-Howard-Martin-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99
622
FXUS64 KMAF 222044
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
244 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A powerful upper level storm system moving onto the northwest
Pacific coast will move east through the Rockies tonight and
track across the central Plains on Friday. Windy to very windy
conditions are expected to develop late Friday morning and
continue through Friday afternoon across southeast New Mexico and
much of west Texas. Forecast soundings from the GFS/Canadian/ECMWF
guidance indicate the potential for significantly stronger winds
than forecast by MOS data (characteristic error). The stronger
sounding winds look more reasonable given 40 knot mix layer winds
depicted with strong downslope mixing and consensus 850 millibar
winds of 35 knots. For this reason will issue a High Wind Watch
for the southeast New Mexico plains, Upper Trans Pecos, and much
of the northern Permian Basin for Thursday afternoon. It looks
like it will be a closer call further south in the central Permian
Basin. Will let the mid shift decide to make the final call
regarding any wind advisories or warnings for these areas. Will
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a warning for the Guadalupe
Mountains Thursday and extend it into Friday as the winds aloft
remain stout over that region. It will also be windy in the Davis
Mountains, especially above 6000 feet late Thursday night and
Friday. Later shifts will need to monitor that area also for a
possible wind watch, warning or advisory.

Expecting a dust cloud to develop Thursday afternoon over the dry
lake beds of northern Mexico and southern New Mexico in the strong
gradient and advect over the forecast area late Thursday afternoon
and Thursday evening. Will mention patchy blowing dust in the
products. Near record high temperatures are also expected
Thursday, especially across west Texas where low level thermal
ridging, clear skies and downslope flow will prevail.

Beyond Thursday dry and strong flow aloft will continue through
the weekend and into the middle of next week. Except for
Saturday, high temperatures are expected to remain well above
normal. A couple of quick moving storm systems will probably bring
another bout of windy to very windy conditions area wide Sunday
and next Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical/extremely fire wx conditions are materializing for Thur,
and even Fri, possibly Sun and Tue. Immediate concerns are of course
for Thu. Sustained west winds of 30-50 mph are expected across
the plains and mountains, respectively, high winds are possible in
the plains. High temps will be 15-20 degrees above normal and
with downslope winds min RHs will fall to near 10 pct in most
areas. This pattern is a particular concern as in the past this
type of system has resulted in the multiple occurrence of large
fires. SE NM and nrn PB are of the most concern. Fuels have been
drying and the grasses will certainly be dry, reflected by what we
think will be a very high to extreme fire danger. Red flag threat
indices will be 6-7 with a few as high as 8 expected which is
considered high end critical to extremely critical. Critical fire
wx is expected to continue Fri. We will hold off on issuance of a
watch for Fri now because there are already a large number of
headlines already out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  86  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  80  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         52  90  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  55  88  48  69 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  68  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          47  77  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          41  78  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           51  85  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         51  85  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           47  84  41  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 2 PM MST Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM
     MST/ Thursday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 2 PM MST Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch Thursday afternoon for Andrews-Borden-Dawson-
     Gaines-Howard-Martin-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99
391
FXUS64 KMAF 221739
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1139 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions through the period. Winds become more
southwesterly this afternoon around 10kts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The warmest day of the week is expected today with west, downsloping
winds and sunny skies persisting. Westerly flow aloft developing
overhead will advect an 850mb thermal ridge into the region and high
temperatures are expect to warm in to the mid-upper 80s most
locations this afternoon. Meanwhile, a lee surface trough will
develop ahead of the next upper trough swinging through the western
ConUS today. The surface low will continue to strengthen through
Thursday as the upper trough moves east into the Central Plains,
increasing westerly winds across much of the CWA. Confidence is high
that Guadalupe Mountains will see high winds Thursday and likely
overnight into Friday morning as the upper speed max associated with
the upper trough rotates overhead. Winds across SE NM and south
through the Davis Mountains will likely reach advisory criteria (30
mph sustained) through Thursday evening. Very dry conditions are
expected today and tomorrow and could cause some problems for fire
weather. Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more
details.

Will get a cool down Friday as a Pacific front moves through then
another surge of cooler air Saturday with the passage of a cold
front, returning high temperatures to the 60s. This will be short-
lived with the return of south winds by Sunday and high temperatures
will warm to the upper 70s to low 80s through the beginning of next
week.

FIRE WEATHER...
It will be dry across the area today, but winds greater than 20 mph
will only be seen in the Guadalupe Mountains where a Red Flag
Warning is in effect. Critical fire weather conditions will spread
across most of the area tomorrow as an upper trough moves into the
southern Rockies. Strong winds are expected in the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains and very windy conditions will spread east into the
adjacent plains and combined with minimum afternoon humidities
dropping below 10 percent will lead to very critical fire weather
conditions. Upgraded the Thursday watch to a warning and expanded it
eastward to include all of our eastern counties. Conditions will be
more marginal in the eastern Permian Basin with lighter winds and
humidities closer to 15 percent but felt it best to go ahead and
include those counties. A cold front will arrive Friday decreasing
the fire weather threat some, but very low dewpoints will offset the
cooler temperatures some and critical fire weather conditions will
again be possible mainly in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, as
well as the adjacent plains in southeastern New Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  51  86  41 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       87  50  80  40 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         90  52  90  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  89  55  88  46 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 76  49  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          83  47  77  35 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          82  41  78  35 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           87  51  85  42 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         87  51  85  42 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           88  47  84  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM
     MST/ Thursday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
186
FXUS64 KMAF 221108
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
508 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. Modest northwest winds are
expected through at least the first six hours of the TAF. Winds
may become a little more southwesterly this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The warmest day of the week is expected today with west, downsloping
winds and sunny skies persisting. Westerly flow aloft developing
overhead will advect an 850mb thermal ridge into the region and high
temperatures are expect to warm in to the mid-upper 80s most
locations this afternoon. Meanwhile, a lee surface trough will
develop ahead of the next upper trough swinging through the western
ConUS today. The surface low will continue to strengthen through
Thursday as the upper trough moves east into the Central Plains,
increasing westerly winds across much of the CWA. Confidence is high
that Guadalupe Mountains will see high winds Thursday and likely
overnight into Friday morning as the upper speed max associated with
the upper trough rotates overhead. Winds across SE NM and south
through the Davis Mountains will likely reach advisory criteria (30
mph sustained) through Thursday evening. Very dry conditions are
expected today and tomorrow and could cause some problems for fire
weather. Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more
details.

Will get a cool down Friday as a Pacific front moves through then
another surge of cooler air Saturday with the passage of a cold
front, returning high temperatures to the 60s. This will be short-
lived with the return of south winds by Sunday and high temperatures
will warm to the upper 70s to low 80s through the beginning of next
week.

FIRE WEATHER...
It will be dry across the area today, but winds greater than 20 mph
will only be seen in the Guadalupe Mountains where a Red Flag
Warning is in effect. Critical fire weather conditions will spread
across most of the area tomorrow as an upper trough moves into the
southern Rockies. Strong winds are expected in the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains and very windy conditions will spread east into the
adjacent plains and combined with minimum afternoon humidities
dropping below 10 percent will lead to very critical fire weather
conditions. Upgraded the Thursday watch to a warning and expanded it
eastward to include all of our eastern counties. Conditions will be
more marginal in the eastern Permian Basin with lighter winds and
humidities closer to 15 percent but felt it best to go ahead and
include those counties. A cold front will arrive Friday decreasing
the fire weather threat some, but very low dewpoints will offset the
cooler temperatures some and critical fire weather conditions will
again be possible mainly in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, as
well as the adjacent plains in southeastern New Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  51  86  41 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       87  50  80  40 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         90  52  90  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  89  55  88  46 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 76  49  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          83  47  77  35 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          82  41  78  35 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           87  51  85  42 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         87  51  85  42 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           88  47  84  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM
     MST/ Thursday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/10
140
FXUS64 KMAF 220953
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
353 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The warmest day of the week is expected today with west, downsloping
winds and sunny skies persisting. Westerly flow aloft developing
overhead will advect an 850mb thermal ridge into the region and high
temperatures are expect to warm in to the mid-upper 80s most
locations this afternoon. Meanwhile, a lee surface trough will
develop ahead of the next upper trough swinging through the western
ConUS today. The surface low will continue to strengthen through
Thursday as the upper trough moves east into the Central Plains,
increasing westerly winds across much of the CWA. Confidence is high
that Guadalupe Mountains will see high winds Thursday and likely
overnight into Friday morning as the upper speed max associated with
the upper trough rotates overhead. Winds across SE NM and south
through the Davis Mountains will likely reach advisory criteria (30
mph sustained) through Thursday evening. Very dry conditions are
expected today and tomorrow and could cause some problems for fire
weather. Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more
details.

Will get a cool down Friday as a Pacific front moves through then
another surge of cooler air Saturday with the passage of a cold
front, returning high temperatures to the 60s. This will be short-
lived with the return of south winds by Sunday and high temperatures
will warm to the upper 70s to low 80s through the beginning of next
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
It will be dry across the area today, but winds greater than 20 mph
will only be seen in the Guadalupe Mountains where a Red Flag
Warning is in effect. Critical fire weather conditions will spread
across most of the area tomorrow as an upper trough moves into the
southern Rockies. Strong winds are expected in the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains and very windy conditions will spread east into the
adjacent plains and combined with minimum afternoon humidities
dropping below 10 percent will lead to very critical fire weather
conditions. Upgraded the Thursday watch to a warning and expanded it
eastward to include all of our eastern counties. Conditions will be
more marginal in the eastern Permian Basin with lighter winds and
humidities closer to 15 percent but felt it best to go ahead and
include those counties. A cold front will arrive Friday decreasing
the fire weather threat some, but very low dewpoints will offset the
cooler temperatures some and critical fire weather conditions will
again be possible mainly in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, as
well as the adjacent plains in southeastern New Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  51  86  41 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       87  50  80  40 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         90  52  90  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  89  55  88  46 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 76  49  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          83  47  77  35 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          82  41  78  35 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           87  51  85  42 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         87  51  85  42 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           88  47  84  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM MST this morning through this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM MST this morning through this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio
     Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

10/27
735
FXUS64 KMAF 220404
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1004 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

An upper ridge across the forecast area will move east and be
replaced by westerly flow aloft by early Wednesday. Record to
near record warmth is expected across west Texas and southeast
New Mexico Tomorrow and Thursday as low level thermal ridging,
downslope flow and clear skies develop in this flow. By Thursday
a powerful storm system is forecast to track across the central
Plains. In addition to the near record warmth windy to very windy
conditions will develop with high winds possible in the Guadalupe
Mountains Thursday and Thursday evening. Wind Advisories will also
likely be needed across much of the remainder of the area Thursday.

Beyond Thursday more dry westerly flow aloft will continue
through the weekend and into early next week. Except for Saturday,
high temperatures are expected to remain well above normal.
Looks like breezy to very windy conditions will also develop
again next Monday and especially Tuesday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

The trend of unseasonably warm days will continue Wednesday and
Thursday.  May have some localized places approach critical fire wx
conditions on Wednesday and a watch is out for the Guadalupe
Mountains... but Thursday is the main concern. Wind speeds will be
higher Thursday with the approach of an upper trough and the
development of a deep surface low to the north. Minimum Rh values
Thursday will be around 10 percent or less across the region with
20ft winds in excess of 20 mph across a large portion of the area.
Will continue the Fire Weather Watch Thursday for Southeast New
Mexico... the Western Permian Basin... The Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains... Upper Trans Pecos... and Marfa Plateau.  A front on
Friday will bring cooler temperatures and improved fire wx
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     47  86  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       41  85  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         51  90  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  51  88  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  77  50  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          45  82  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          34  79  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  84  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           41  86  47  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio
     Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
368
FXUS64 KMAF 212250
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
450 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail tonight and Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

An upper ridge across the forecast area will move east and be
replaced by westerly flow aloft by early Wednesday. Record to
near record warmth is expected across west Texas and southeast
New Mexico Tomorrow and Thursday as low level thermal ridging,
downslope flow and clear skies develop in this flow. By Thursday
a powerful storm system is forecast to track across the central
Plains. In addition to the near record warmth windy to very windy
conditions will develop with high winds possible in the Guadalupe
Mountains Thursday and Thursday evening. Wind Advisories will also
likely be needed across much of the remainder of the area Thursday.

Beyond Thursday more dry westerly flow aloft will continue
through the weekend and into early next week. Except for Saturday,
high temperatures are expected to remain well above normal.
Looks like breezy to very windy conditions will also develop
again next Monday and especially Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER...
The trend of unseasonably warm days will continue Wednesday and
Thursday.  May have some localized places approach critical fire wx
conditions on Wednesday and a watch is out for the Guadalupe
Mountains... but Thursday is the main concern. Wind speeds will be
higher Thursday with the approach of an upper trough and the
development of a deep surface low to the north. Minimum Rh values
Thursday will be around 10 percent or less across the region with
20ft winds in excess of 20 mph across a large portion of the area.
Will continue the Fire Weather Watch Thursday for Southeast New
Mexico... the Western Permian Basin... The Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains... Upper Trans Pecos... and Marfa Plateau.  A front on
Friday will bring cooler temperatures and improved fire wx
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     47  86  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       41  85  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         51  90  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  51  88  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  77  50  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          45  82  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          34  79  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  84  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           41  86  47  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio
     Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

72/12
342
FXUS64 KMAF 212022
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
222 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge across the forecast area will move east and be
replaced by westerly flow aloft by early Wednesday. Record to
near record warmth is expected across west Texas and southeast
New Mexico Tomorrow and Thursday as low level thermal ridging,
downslope flow and clear skies develop in this flow. By Thursday
a powerful storm system is forecast to track across the central
Plains. In addition to the near record warmth windy to very windy
conditions will develop with high winds possible in the Guadalupe
Mountains Thursday and Thursday evening. Wind Advisories will also
likely be needed across much of the remainder of the area Thursday.

Beyond Thursday more dry westerly flow aloft will continue
through the weekend and into early next week. Except for Saturday,
high temperatures are expected to remain well above normal.
Looks like breezy to very windy conditions will also develop
again next Monday and especially Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The trend of unseasonably warm days will continue Wednesday and
Thursday.  May have some localized places approach critical fire wx
conditions on Wednesday and a watch is out for the Guadalupe
Mountains... but Thursday is the main concern. Wind speeds will be
higher Thursday with the approach of an upper trough and the
development of a deep surface low to the north. Minimum Rh values
Thursday will be around 10 percent or less across the region with
20ft winds in excess of 20 mph across a large portion of the area.
Will continue the Fire Weather Watch Thursday for Southeast New
Mexico... the Western Permian Basin... The Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains... Upper Trans Pecos... and Marfa Plateau.  A front on
Friday will bring cooler temperatures and improved fire wx
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     47  86  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       41  85  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         51  90  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  51  88  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  77  50  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          45  82  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          34  79  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  84  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           41  86  47  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio
     Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

72/12
756
FXUS64 KMAF 211729
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1129 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with clear skies. Wind will remain westerly and may be a
little gusty during the afternoon.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Near record high temperatures are expected the next couple of days
as an upper ridge builds over west Texas and southeastern New
Mexico in the wake of a departing low pressure system currently
over east Texas. This ridge will dampen Thursday due to a trough
over the Pacific northwest moving across the northern Rockies.
The polar jet stream located at the base of this trough will
approach the CWA and strong winds will be possible in the higher
elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains Thursday and
Thursday night. The trough will push a Pacific front through the
area Friday bringing cooler temperatures, followed by a secondary
push of slightly cooler Canadian air on Saturday as the trough
departs to the east. Deep layer moisture will be pushed well east
of the area due to the westerly mid level flow so there will not
be any chance for rain with this system. Warmer conditions return
early next week ahead of yet another storm system impacting the
west coast.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions will persist the next few days, increasing
fire weather concerns across portions of the region. Afternoon rh/s
today will drop to near 15 percent across some areas however 20 foot
winds will remain below 20 mph areawide. Wednesday, afternoon rh/s
10-15 percent can be expected areawide but critical 20 foot winds
will remain confined to the Guadalupe Mountains and a Fire Weather
Watch is now in effect for this area Wednesday afternoon. Elsewhere,
elevated fire weather conditions are possible and Fire Danger
Statement may be needed. Otherwise, overnight recovery Wednesday
night will generally be poor to fair.

An upper trough will pass just north of the region Thursday with a
lee surface trough strengthening in the Central Plains. This will
increase westerly winds across much of the area and 20 foot winds
well above 20 mph can be expected through the afternoon,
particularly across Southeast New Mexico, NW Permian Basin and
southward through the Davis Mountains and Presidio Valley. Critical
fire weather conditions are expected across these locations as RH
values drop to near 10 percent and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect
for these areas Thursday afternoon. Gusty west winds will diminish
Thursday evening, at which point fire weather concerns will
diminish.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  44  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       82  42  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         84  48  88  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  80  49  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  47  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          77  42  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  34  80  39 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           80  45  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         80  46  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           82  40  87  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio
     Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$
288
FXUS64 KMAF 211119
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
519 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals with fairly light winds and clear skies in
place.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Near record high temperatures are expected the next couple of days
as an upper ridge builds over west Texas and southeastern New
Mexico in the wake of a departing low pressure system currently
over east Texas. This ridge will dampen Thursday due to a trough
over the Pacific northwest moving across the northern Rockies.
The polar jet stream located at the base of this trough will
approach the CWA and strong winds will be possible in the higher
elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains Thursday and
Thursday night. The trough will push a Pacific front through the
area Friday bringing cooler temperatures, followed by a secondary
push of slightly cooler Canadian air on Saturday as the trough
departs to the east. Deep layer moisture will be pushed well east
of the area due to the westerly mid level flow so there will not
be any chance for rain with this system. Warmer conditions return
early next week ahead of yet another storm system impacting the
west coast.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions will persist the next few days, increasing
fire weather concerns across portions of the region. Afternoon rh/s
today will drop to near 15 percent across some areas however 20 foot
winds will remain below 20 mph areawide. Wednesday, afternoon rh/s
10-15 percent can be expected areawide but critical 20 foot winds
will remain confined to the Guadalupe Mountains and a Fire Weather
Watch is now in effect for this area Wednesday afternoon. Elsewhere,
elevated fire weather conditions are possible and Fire Danger
Statement may be needed. Otherwise, overnight recovery Wednesday
night will generally be poor to fair.

An upper trough will pass just north of the region Thursday with a
lee surface trough strengthening in the Central Plains. This will
increase westerly winds across much of the area and 20 foot winds
well above 20 mph can be expected through the afternoon,
particularly across Southeast New Mexico, NW Permian Basin and
southward through the Davis Mountains and Presidio Valley. Critical
fire weather conditions are expected across these locations as RH
values drop to near 10 percent and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect
for these areas Thursday afternoon. Gusty west winds will diminish
Thursday evening, at which point fire weather concerns will
diminish.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  44  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       82  42  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         84  48  88  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  80  49  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  47  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          77  42  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  34  80  39 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           80  45  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         80  46  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           82  40  87  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio
     Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

27/10/27
843
FXUS64 KMAF 210943
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
343 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Near record high temperatures are expected the next couple of days
as an upper ridge builds over west Texas and southeastern New
Mexico in the wake of a departing low pressure system currently
over east Texas. This ridge will dampen Thursday due to a trough
over the Pacific northwest moving across the northern Rockies.
The polar jet stream located at the base of this trough will
approach the CWA and strong winds will be possible in the higher
elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains Thursday and
Thursday night. The trough will push a Pacific front through the
area Friday bringing cooler temperatures, followed by a secondary
push of slightly cooler Canadian air on Saturday as the trough
departs to the east. Deep layer moisture will be pushed well east
of the area due to the westerly mid level flow so there will not
be any chance for rain with this system. Warmer conditions return
early next week ahead of yet another storm system impacting the
west coast.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions will persist the next few days, increasing
fire weather concerns across portions of the region. Afternoon rh/s
today will drop to near 15 percent across some areas however 20 foot
winds will remain below 20 mph areawide. Wednesday, afternoon rh/s
10-15 percent can be expected areawide but critical 20 foot winds
will remain confined to the Guadalupe Mountains and a Fire Weather
Watch is now in effect for this area Wednesday afternoon. Elsewhere,
elevated fire weather conditions are possible and Fire Danger
Statement may be needed. Otherwise, overnight recovery Wednesday
night will generally be poor to fair.

An upper trough will pass just north of the region Thursday with a
lee surface trough strengthening in the Central Plains. This will
increase westerly winds across much of the area and 20 foot winds
well above 20 mph can be expected through the afternoon,
particularly across Southeast New Mexico, NW Permian Basin and
southward through the Davis Mountains and Presidio Valley. Critical
fire weather conditions are expected across these locations as RH
values drop to near 10 percent and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect
for these areas Thursday afternoon. Gusty west winds will diminish
Thursday evening, at which point fire weather concerns will
diminish.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  44  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       82  42  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         84  48  88  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  80  49  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  47  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          77  42  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  34  80  39 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           80  45  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         80  46  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           82  40  87  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio
     Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

27/10
523
FXUS64 KMAF 210312
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
912 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Sfc flow will remain
westerly, w/a few high clouds during the day Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 146 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough pushing across TX today with high pressure building in
behind it.  This will provide warm wx for the region.  The next
upper trough will move ashore the West Coast on Wednesday crossing
the Rockies on Thursday and the plains Friday.  After that a flat
ridge will guild across the Southern tier of states through the
weekend.

The passing upper trough wiped the clouds from the area and shoved
them into East TX.  A Leeside trough will set up across the area on
Tuesday... looking at a dry week with low dewpts as a mostly W to NW
wind keeps low level moisture off to the east.  Little expectation
of any rain this week.  Thursday is looking really windy with models
showing a brisk west wind pushing across the area as a surface low
north of the Panhandle drag a trough/Pacific front through the
region.  A weak back door front moves into the area Friday
night/Saturday morning but not much cooling with it.

With the return of sunshine warmer temps have returned. Temperatures
will increase through the week with highs in the mid to upper. 70s
tomorrow... increasing to near record highs Wednesday in the mid
80s.  A few degrees cooler Thursday with windy conditions which will
create fire wx concerns.

FIRE WEATHER...
Much above normal high temperatures and dry conditions will increase
fire weather concerns most days through Thursday. For late this
afternoon, portions of the southeast New Mexico plains and northwest
Permian Basin will have minimum rh/s around 15 percent with near
critical fire weather conditions expected as northwest to north
winds rise to 15-25 mph. Will continue the Fire Danger Statement for
these areas this afternoon. Winds should decrease by sunset with
generally fair overnight recovery expected.

An upper ridge will expand over the region Tuesday with temperatures
well above normal. Since rh/s will struggle to drop below 15
percent, and 20 foot winds will generally be less than 20 mph,
critical fire weather conditions are not expected.

On Wednesday afternoon much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico
will have min rh/s of 10 to 15 percent. 20 foot winds will be a
little stronger than Tuesday as the ridge moves east of the region.
Near critical fire weather conditions are more likely than Tuesday
due to the stronger 20 foot wind speeds and lower rh/s expected.
Recovery Wednesday night is expected to be generally poor to fair.

Thursday is shaping up to be a potentially significant fire weather
day across west Texas and southeast New Mexico as a powerful storm
system passes by to the north across the central Plains. Very windy
conditions along with much above normal temperatures and dry
conditions are expected. Fuels are expected to dry significantly by
Thursday which will enhance the fire weather threat. Stay tuned to
the latest discussions and forecasts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     41  78  46  86 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       38  80  45  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         47  83  50  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  45  80  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 42  69  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  76  43  82 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          29  73  31  80 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  79  47  86 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         42  79  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           38  81  44  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44
570
FXUS64 KMAF 201946
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
146 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper trough pushing across TX today with high pressure building in
behind it.  This will provide warm wx for the region.  The next
upper trough will move ashore the West Coast on Wednesday crossing
the Rockies on Thursday and the plains Friday.  After that a flat
ridge will guild across the Southern tier of states through the
weekend.

The passing upper trough wiped the clouds from the area and shoved
them into East TX.  A Leeside trough will set up across the area on
Tuesday... looking at a dry week with low dewpts as a mostly W to NW
wind keeps low level moisture off to the east.  Little expectation
of any rain this week.  Thursday is looking really windy with models
showing a brisk west wind pushing across the area as a surface low
north of the Panhandle drag a trough/Pacific front through the
region.  A weak back door front moves into the area Friday
night/Saturday morning but not much cooling with it.

With the return of sunshine warmer temps have returned. Temperatures
will increase through the week with highs in the mid to upper. 70s
tomorrow... increasing to near record highs Wednesday in the mid
80s.  A few degrees cooler Thursday with windy conditions which will
create fire wx concerns.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Much above normal high temperatures and dry conditions will increase
fire weather concerns most days through Thursday. For late this
afternoon, portions of the southeast New Mexico plains and northwest
Permian Basin will have minimum rh/s around 15 percent with near
critical fire weather conditions expected as northwest to north
winds rise to 15-25 mph. Will continue the Fire Danger Statement for
these areas this afternoon. Winds should decrease by sunset with
generally fair overnight recovery expected.

An upper ridge will expand over the region Tuesday with temperatures
well above normal. Since rh/s will struggle to drop below 15
percent, and 20 foot winds will generally be less than 20 mph,
critical fire weather conditions are not expected.

On Wednesday afternoon much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico
will have min rh/s of 10 to 15 percent. 20 foot winds will be a
little stronger than Tuesday as the ridge moves east of the region.
Near critical fire weather conditions are more likely than Tuesday
due to the stronger 20 foot wind speeds and lower rh/s expected.
Recovery Wednesday night is expected to be generally poor to fair.

Thursday is shaping up to be a potentially significant fire weather
day across west Texas and southeast New Mexico as a powerful storm
system passes by to the north across the central Plains. Very windy
conditions along with much above normal temperatures and dry
conditions are expected. Fuels are expected to dry significantly by
Thursday which will enhance the fire weather threat. Stay tuned to
the latest discussions and forecasts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     41  78  46  86 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       38  80  45  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         47  83  50  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  45  80  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 42  69  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  76  43  82 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          29  73  31  80 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  79  47  86 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         42  79  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           38  81  44  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/72
413
FXUS64 KMAF 201703
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1103 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours under mostly clear skies.
Winds will generally be west to northwest at 20 to 30 mph and
gusty this afternoon, diminishing to 5 to 10 mph by sunset and
continuing overnight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 504 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today and tonight.
West winds will veer to the northwest and increase to near 20kt
sustained and gusts as high as 30kt. Winds will decrease around
21/00Z, or shortly thereafter.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

The axis of the upper trough is directly overhead this morning and
will continue shifting east today. Clouds have all but cleared the
CWA and subsidence along with dry air on the back side of the
system will make for a beautiful day. Winds may be a little breezy
out of the northwest which could cause some elevated fire weather
conditions especially across SE NM. Weak ridging builds in
through midweek and will combine with a mid level thermal ridge to
boost temperatures well above normal. Highs in the 80`s and yes,
even 90`s, are looking more likely Wednesday and Thursday. While
winds will be fairly light through midweek, conditions change
drastically Thursday. An upper trough will move across the Rockies
while inducing a surface low in the Plains. Strong mixing, dry
air, and hot temperatures will create critical fire weather
conditions across much of the area. We will also see high winds
and advisory conditions over parts of the region. A cold front
will allow temperatures to get back close to normal Friday through
the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...

A surface trough will move into the area today and shift winds to
the northwest and north behind it.  Southeast New Mexico and the
northwest Permian Basin will see stronger northerly winds, and
minimum afternoon RH/s of 10-15 percent in some of areas.  Since the
stronger 20 foot winds will occur prior to the lower RH/s in these
areas, will issue a Fire Danger Statement.  the rest of the forecast
area will have minimum afternoon RH/s above 15 percent, and 20 foot
northwest winds of 10-20 mph.

Recovery tonight will be poor over most of the forecast area as
northwest low level winds funnel dry air into the region.  An upper
ridge will build over the region Tuesday and promote high
temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal.  There will be widespread
minimum RH/s of 10-15 percent Tuesday afternoon, but 20 foot wind
speeds will mainly be less than 20 mph sustained, so critical
conditions are not expected.  Recovery will be poor again Tuesday
night, and as the upper ridge begins to break down, 20 foot wind
speeds of 15-20 mph will affect some locations along and west of the
Pecos River.  Near critical conditions may prompt issuance of a Fire
Danger Statement for Wednesday afternoon.

Persistent, and increasing, westerly flow aloft will occur Wednesday
night and Thursday which will keep recovery poor again Wednesday
night.  An upper level storm system will pass by to the north of the
region on Thursday, and likely result in widespread critical fire
weather conditions from Thursday morning into thursday evening.  If
model trends continue to support this pattern, a Fire Weather Watch
will likely be issued on Tuesday or Tuesday night.  Unfortunately,
poor recovery, and near critical to critical, fire weather
conditions could occur over much of the area Friday through
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  41  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       71  38  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         76  47  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72  44  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 61  42  69  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          70  39  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          64  29  73  31 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           73  41  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         73  42  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74  38  81  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
711
FXUS64 KMAF 201104
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
504 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today and tonight.
West winds will veer to the northwest and increase to near 20kt
sustained and gusts as high as 30kt. Winds will decrease around
21/00Z, or shortly thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

The axis of the upper trough is directly overhead this morning and
will continue shifting east today. Clouds have all but cleared the
CWA and subsidence along with dry air on the back side of the
system will make for a beautiful day. Winds may be a little breezy
out of the northwest which could cause some elevated fire weather
conditions especially across SE NM. Weak ridging builds in
through midweek and will combine with a mid level thermal ridge to
boost temperatures well above normal. Highs in the 80`s and yes,
even 90`s, are looking more likely Wednesday and Thursday. While
winds will be fairly light through midweek, conditions change
drastically Thursday. An upper trough will move across the Rockies
while inducing a surface low in the Plains. Strong mixing, dry
air, and hot temperatures will create critical fire weather
conditions across much of the area. We will also see high winds
and advisory conditions over parts of the region. A cold front
will allow temperatures to get back close to normal Friday through
the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...

A surface trough will move into the area today and shift winds to
the northwest and north behind it.  Southeast New Mexico and the
northwest Permian Basin will see stronger northerly winds, and
minimum afternoon RH/s of 10-15 percent in some of areas.  Since the
stronger 20 foot winds will occur prior to the lower RH/s in these
areas, will issue a Fire Danger Statement.  the rest of the forecast
area will have minimum afternoon RH/s above 15 percent, and 20 foot
northwest winds of 10-20 mph.

Recovery tonight will be poor over most of the forecast area as
northwest low level winds funnel dry air into the region.  An upper
ridge will build over the region Tuesday and promote high
temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal.  There will be widespread
minimum RH/s of 10-15 percent Tuesday afternoon, but 20 foot wind
speeds will mainly be less than 20 mph sustained, so critical
conditions are not expected.  Recovery will be poor again Tuesday
night, and as the upper ridge begins to break down, 20 foot wind
speeds of 15-20 mph will affect some locations along and west of the
Pecos River.  Near critical conditions may prompt issuance of a Fire
Danger Statement for Wednesday afternoon.

Persistent, and increasing, westerly flow aloft will occur Wednesday
night and Thursday which will keep recovery poor again Wednesday
night.  An upper level storm system will pass by to the north of the
region on Thursday, and likely result in widespread critical fire
weather conditions from Thursday morning into thursday evening.  If
model trends continue to support this pattern, a Fire Weather Watch
will likely be issued on Tuesday or Tuesday night.  Unfortunately,
poor recovery, and near critical to critical, fire weather
conditions could occur over much of the area Friday through
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  41  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       71  38  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         76  47  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72  44  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 61  42  69  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          70  39  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          64  29  73  31 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           73  41  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         73  42  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74  38  81  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
274
FXUS64 KMAF 200940
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
340 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The axis of the upper trough is directly overhead this morning and
will continue shifting east today. Clouds have all but cleared the
CWA and subsidence along with dry air on the back side of the
system will make for a beautiful day. Winds may be a little breezy
out of the northwest which could cause some elevated fire weather
conditions especially across SE NM. Weak ridging builds in
through midweek and will combine with a mid level thermal ridge to
boost temperatures well above normal. Highs in the 80`s and yes,
even 90`s, are looking more likely Wednesday and Thursday. While
winds will be fairly light through midweek, conditions change
drastically Thursday. An upper trough will move across the Rockies
while inducing a surface low in the Plains. Strong mixing, dry
air, and hot temperatures will create critical fire weather
conditions across much of the area. We will also see high winds
and advisory conditions over parts of the region. A cold front
will allow temperatures to get back close to normal Friday through
the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A surface trough will move into the area today and shift winds to
the northwest and north behind it.  Southeast New Mexico and the
northwest Permian Basin will see stronger northerly winds, and
minimum afternoon RH/s of 10-15 percent in some of areas.  Since the
stronger 20 foot winds will occur prior to the lower RH/s in these
areas, will issue a Fire Danger Statement.  the rest of the forecast
area will have minimum afternoon RH/s above 15 percent, and 20 foot
northwest winds of 10-20 mph.

Recovery tonight will be poor over most of the forecast area as
northwest low level winds funnel dry air into the region.  An upper
ridge will build over the region Tuesday and promote high
temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal.  There will be widespread
minimum RH/s of 10-15 percent Tuesday afternoon, but 20 foot wind
speeds will mainly be less than 20 mph sustained, so critical
conditions are not expected.  Recovery will be poor again Tuesday
night, and as the upper ridge begins to break down, 20 foot wind
speeds of 15-20 mph will affect some locations along and west of the
Pecos River.  Near critical conditions may prompt issuance of a Fire
Danger Statement for Wednesday afternoon.

Persistent, and increasing, westerly flow aloft will occur Wednesday
night and Thursday which will keep recovery poor again Wednesday
night.  An upper level storm system will pass by to the north of the
region on Thursday, and likely result in widespread critical fire
weather conditions from Thursday morning into thursday evening.  If
model trends continue to support this pattern, a Fire Weather Watch
will likely be issued on Tuesday or Tuesday night.  Unfortunately,
poor recovery, and near critical to critical, fire weather
conditions could occur over much of the area Friday through
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  41  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       71  38  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         76  47  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72  44  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 61  42  69  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          70  39  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          64  29  73  31 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           73  41  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         73  42  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74  38  81  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
710
FXUS64 KMAF 200333
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
933 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. WV imagery shows the
upper trough over central NM, and has entered far west Texas. Expect
cigs to continue to raise/dissipate as the upper trough scours
the area over the next 12 hours or so. Sfc flow will veer to NW
after 12Z Monday, w/buffer soundings suggesting a cu field
developing after 18Z invof KMAF/KHOB, w/bases ~ 5 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 856 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

UPDATE...
Reducing precipitation chances for the rest of the night across
the region.

DISCUSSION...
Lift and moisture ahead of upper trough moving through west Texas
and New Mexico tonight focusing further east with time with only
a few light rain showers remaining from the eastern Permian Basin
south to the Big Bend region. Vorticity center pushing northeast
into Big Bend area providing some lift, though precipitation
limited by stability and lack of significant moisture. Still could
see area of light rain pushing northeast across Terrell County
into the Concho Valley overnight. Little if any measurable
precipitation is expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. WV imagery shows the
upper trough over wrn NM, about to enter far west Texas, preceded
by a line of -SHRA that has just cleared KMAF. Models suggest this
will be it as far as terminals are concerned. Expect cigs to
raise and dissipate as the upper trough scours the area over the
next 18 hours. Sfc flow will veer to NW after 12Z Monday, w/buffer
soundings suggesting a low-based cu field developing before 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 217 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough over AZ this morning will push east today passing over
the region tomorrow.  In its wake high pressure will build over the
area.  The next upper trough will move over the West Coast on
Wednesday and quickly progress east but pass north of the region.
Another strong trough will move ashore Saturday and will have to
watch this one as it approaches on a southern track.

low level moisture flowed into the area this morning with dewpts
into the upper 50s NE with 30s W.  However as of afternoon this
moisture is getting pushed east by a west wind. As of 20z the
dryline has pushed through all but the Scurry/Mitchell county
area. Have had light returns of high based showers on radar for
several hours but these are back in the dry air so most of this
has been evaporating as it falls. Will keep low chance of storms
along and east of an Alpine to Midland line tonight but expect
most storms will form farther east.  There will be the potential
for some severe wx over North... Central... and even South TX
tonight.  The rest of the week looks dry.

With rain exiting the area the main story will be temperatures.
Expect to see readings well above normal this week with 80s
returning by Wednesday.  Thursday looks warm and windy and will
have fire wx concerns developing.  A cold front moves through
Friday knocking highs back into the 60s Friday and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  73  42  76 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       41  72  36  79 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         50  77  47  81 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  45  72  45  77 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  60  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  70  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  63  29  71 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  72  42  76 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         44  72  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  74  37  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/05/44
539
FXUS64 KMAF 200256 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
856 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Reducing precipitation chances for the rest of the night across
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Lift and moisture ahead of upper trough moving through west Texas
and New Mexico tonight focusing further east with time with only
a few light rain showers remaining from the eastern Permian Basin
south to the Big Bend region. Vorticity center pushing northeast
into Big Bend area providing some lift, though precipitation
limited by stability and lack of significant moisture. Still could
see area of light rain pushing northeast across Terrell County
into the Concho Valley overnight. Little if any measurable
precipitation is expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. WV imagery shows the
upper trough over wrn NM, about to enter far west Texas, preceded
by a line of -SHRA that has just cleared KMAF. Models suggest this
will be it as far as terminals are concerned. Expect cigs to
raise and dissipate as the upper trough scours the area over the
next 18 hours. Sfc flow will veer to NW after 12Z Monday, w/buffer
soundings suggesting a low-based cu field developing before 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 217 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough over AZ this morning will push east today passing over
the region tomorrow.  In its wake high pressure will build over the
area.  The next upper trough will move over the West Coast on
Wednesday and quickly progress east but pass north of the region.
Another strong trough will move ashore Saturday and will have to
watch this one as it approaches on a southern track.

low level moisture flowed into the area this morning with dewpts
into the upper 50s NE with 30s W.  However as of afternoon this
moisture is getting pushed east by a west wind. As of 20z the
dryline has pushed through all but the Scurry/Mitchell county
area. Have had light returns of high based showers on radar for
several hours but these are back in the dry air so most of this
has been evaporating as it falls. Will keep low chance of storms
along and east of an Alpine to Midland line tonight but expect
most storms will form farther east.  There will be the potential
for some severe wx over North... Central... and even South TX
tonight.  The rest of the week looks dry.

With rain exiting the area the main story will be temperatures.
Expect to see readings well above normal this week with 80s
returning by Wednesday.  Thursday looks warm and windy and will
have fire wx concerns developing.  A cold front moves through
Friday knocking highs back into the 60s Friday and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  73  42  76 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       41  72  36  79 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         50  77  47  81 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  45  72  45  77 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  60  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  70  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  63  29  71 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  72  42  76 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         44  72  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  74  37  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05
836
FXUS64 KMAF 192218
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
418 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. WV imagery shows the
upper trough over wrn NM, about to enter far west Texas, preceded
by a line of -SHRA that has just cleared KMAF. Models suggest this
will be it as far as terminals are concerned. Expect cigs to
raise and dissipate as the upper trough scours the area over the
next 18 hours. Sfc flow will veer to NW after 12Z Monday, w/buffer
soundings suggesting a low-based cu field developing before 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 217 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough over AZ this morning will push east today passing over
the region tomorrow.  In its wake high pressure will build over the
area.  The next upper trough will move over the West Coast on
Wednesday and quickly progress east but pass north of the region.
Another strong trough will move ashore Saturday and will have to
watch this one as it approaches on a southern track.

low level moisture flowed into the area this morning with dewpts
into the upper 50s NE with 30s W.  However as of afternoon this
moisture is getting pushed east by a west wind. As of 20z the
dryline has pushed through all but the Scurry/Mitchell county
area. Have had light returns of high based showers on radar for
several hours but these are back in the dry air so most of this
has been evaporating as it falls. Will keep low chance of storms
along and east of an Alpine to Midland line tonight but expect
most storms will form farther east.  There will be the potential
for some severe wx over North... Central... and even South TX
tonight.  The rest of the week looks dry.

With rain exiting the area the main story will be temperatures.
Expect to see readings well above normal this week with 80s
returning by Wednesday.  Thursday looks warm and windy and will
have fire wx concerns developing.  A cold front moves through
Friday knocking highs back into the 60s Friday and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  73  42  76 /  50   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       41  72  36  79 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         50  77  47  81 /  50  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  45  72  45  77 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  60  43  67 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  70  37  74 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  63  29  71 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  72  42  76 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                         44  72  42  76 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                           40  74  37  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/05/44
521
FXUS64 KMAF 192017
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
217 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper trough over AZ this morning will push east today passing over
the region tomorrow.  In its wake high pressure will build over the
area.  The next upper trough will move over the West Coast on
Wednesday and quickly progress east but pass north of the region.
Another strong trough will move ashore Saturday and will have to
watch this one as it approaches on a southern track.

low level moisture flowed into the area this morning with dewpts
into the upper 50s NE with 30s W.  However as of afternoon this
moisture is getting pushed east by a west wind. As of 20z the
dryline has pushed through all but the Scurry/Mitchell county
area. Have had light returns of high based showers on radar for
several hours but these are back in the dry air so most of this
has been evaporating as it falls. Will keep low chance of storms
along and east of an Alpine to Midland line tonight but expect
most storms will form farther east.  There will be the potential
for some severe wx over North... Central... and even South TX
tonight.  The rest of the week looks dry.

With rain exiting the area the main story will be temperatures.
Expect to see readings well above normal this week with 80s
returning by Wednesday.  Thursday looks warm and windy and will
have fire wx concerns developing.  A cold front moves through
Friday knocking highs back into the 60s Friday and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  73  42  76 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       41  72  36  79 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         50  77  47  81 /  30  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  45  72  45  77 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  60  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  70  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  63  29  71 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  72  42  76 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         44  72  42  76 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           40  74  37  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/72
906
FXUS64 KMAF 191641
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1041 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions, with an abundance of mid and high clouds, are
expected at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the
next 24 hours. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across west
Texas through tonight but coverage appears to be too low to
include at any terminals. Winds will generally be west to
southwest at 10 to 15 mph, with some higher gusts this afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 502 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Mid and high cloud cover will spread over the region today, along
with westerly surface winds, some of which will be gusty.  VFR
conditions will prevail through tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

A deep upper trough centered over AZ this morning will continue
to move east today. Unfortunately, most of the moisture that has
returned this morning will be shoved east soon by a lead mid
level shortwave. Will keep some isolated PoPs in across the area,
but not expecting much today. Extra cloud cover will won`t help
keep temperatures down much with highs still forecasted to be well
above normal.

Look for quiet, dry conditions to start the new week after the
passage of this system. Weak upper ridging will keep temperatures
on the warm side, but winds should remain fairly light through
midweek. Soon after, another trough will move across the Rockies
inducing a strong surface low over the Plains Thursday. While this
system won`t bring any rain, it will bring plenty of wind and
fire weather. A cold front on Friday will bring temperatures down
back toward normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  45  73  41 /  20  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       67  41  72  37 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         75  49  76  47 /  20  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  72  46  72  45 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  37  60  43 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          65  39  69  37 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  33  63  29 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           71  45  72  41 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         71  45  72  42 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           70  39  73  36 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
451
FXUS64 KMAF 191102
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
502 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mid and high cloud cover will spread over the region today, along
with westerly surface winds, some of which will be gusty.  VFR
conditions will prevail through tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

A deep upper trough centered over AZ this morning will continue
to move east today. Unfortunately, most of the moisture that has
returned this morning will be shoved east soon by a lead mid
level shortwave. Will keep some isolated PoPs in across the area,
but not expecting much today. Extra cloud cover will won`t help
keep temperatures down much with highs still forecasted to be well
above normal.

Look for quiet, dry conditions to start the new week after the
passage of this system. Weak upper ridging will keep temperatures
on the warm side, but winds should remain fairly light through
midweek. Soon after, another trough will move across the Rockies
inducing a strong surface low over the Plains Thursday. While this
system won`t bring any rain, it will bring plenty of wind and
fire weather. A cold front on Friday will bring temperatures down
back toward normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  45  73  41 /  20  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       67  41  72  37 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         75  49  76  47 /  20  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  72  46  72  45 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  37  60  43 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          65  39  69  37 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  33  63  29 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           71  45  72  41 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         71  45  72  42 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           70  39  73  36 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
828
FXUS64 KMAF 190949
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
349 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

A deep upper trough centered over AZ this morning will continue
to move east today. Unfortunately, most of the moisture that has
returned this morning will be shoved east soon by a lead mid
level shortwave. Will keep some isolated PoPs in across the area,
but not expecting much today. Extra cloud cover will won`t help
keep temperatures down much with highs still forecasted to be well
above normal.


Look for quiet, dry conditions to start the new week after the
passage of this system. Weak upper ridging will keep temperatures
on the warm side, but winds should remain fairly light through
midweek. Soon after, another trough will move across the Rockies
inducing a strong surface low over the Plains Thursday. While this
system won`t bring any rain, it will bring plenty of wind and
fire weather. A cold front on Friday will bring temperatures down
back toward normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  45  73  41 /  20  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       67  41  72  37 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         75  49  76  47 /  20  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  72  46  72  45 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  37  60  43 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          65  39  69  37 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  33  63  29 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           71  45  72  41 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         71  45  72  42 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           70  39  73  36 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
909
FXUS64 KMAF 190335
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
935 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/mostly BKN-OVC mid/high
clouds. Return flow will veer to SW after sunrise Sunday,
becoming gusty in the afternoon. A few cu will be possible late
afternoon invof KINK/KPEQ.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 152 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge over the area today will give way to approaching upper
trough moving off the West Coast.  This trough develops into a cut
off low and by tomorrow centered near the 4 corners region.  This
trough will open up and slowly push east Sunday with the ridge
beginning to return by late Monday.  On Wednesday the next upper
trough moves off the coast and quickly moves east crossing the
Rockies Thursday.

Temperatures will be warm this week with highs generally in the 70s
and may hit 80s by midweek.  The normal high temperature for this
time of year in the Permian Basin is 63 so the week looks to be well
above normal.  A front late in the week will knock temps back down
into the 60s.

The development of a leeside trough will turn surface flow back to
the south with the return of low level moisture expected.  Current
dewpts are in the 20s and 30s as of 18z... these should increase to
the 40s to low 50s across the east overnight.  Could see some patchy
fog over the east tomorrow morning.  A dryline is expected to
develop tomorrow and push the moisture east ahead of it.  There is a
low chance of storms developing on the dryline tomorrow over the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos... but most of these
will be east of the area.  Could see strong to severe storms for
North and Central TX tomorrow.

A west wind will kick in tomorrow behind the dryline.  Should be
windy through GDP but stay below high wind criteria... did bump up
speeds a bit in the afternoon.  Could have some fire wx concerns
west of the dryline

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  72  45  73 /   0  20  10   0
Carlsbad                       48  70  41  73 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                         53  75  50  76 /   0  10  20   0
Fort Stockton                  52  73  44  72 /   0  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 42  57  36  61 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          45  67  39  70 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          39  63  36  63 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  73  43  72 /   0  10  10   0
Odessa                         51  73  43  73 /   0  10  10   0
Wink                           49  73  42  73 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/44/44
973
FXUS64 KMAF 190249
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
849 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Sat imagery shows high clouds increasing across West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, which will inhibit rad cooling overnight.
00Z NAM forecast soundings suggest overnight mins can be raised a
couple of degrees. In addition, area radars show returns
increasing out west, and some -SHRA may make it into far western
zones before 12Z. Thus, we`ll do an update to add this, bump up
overnight mins, and adjust other parameters as necessary. Updates
out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/mostly OVC high
clouds. Return flow will veer to SW after sunrise Sunday, becoming
gusty in the afternoon. A few cu will be possible late afternoon
invof KCNM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 152 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge over the area today will give way to approaching upper
trough moving off the West Coast.  This trough develops into a cut
off low and by tomorrow centered near the 4 corners region.  This
trough will open up and slowly push east Sunday with the ridge
beginning to return by late Monday.  On Wednesday the next upper
trough moves off the coast and quickly moves east crossing the
Rockies Thursday.

Temperatures will be warm this week with highs generally in the 70s
and may hit 80s by midweek.  The normal high temperature for this
time of year in the Permian Basin is 63 so the week looks to be well
above normal.  A front late in the week will knock temps back down
into the 60s.

The development of a leeside trough will turn surface flow back to
the south with the return of low level moisture expected.  Current
dewpts are in the 20s and 30s as of 18z... these should increase to
the 40s to low 50s across the east overnight.  Could see some patchy
fog over the east tomorrow morning.  A dryline is expected to
develop tomorrow and push the moisture east ahead of it.  There is a
low chance of storms developing on the dryline tomorrow over the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos... but most of these
will be east of the area.  Could see strong to severe storms for
North and Central TX tomorrow.

A west wind will kick in tomorrow behind the dryline.  Should be
windy through GDP but stay below high wind criteria... did bump up
speeds a bit in the afternoon.  Could have some fire wx concerns
west of the dryline

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  72  45  73 /   0  20  10   0
Carlsbad                       48  70  41  73 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                         53  75  50  76 /   0  10  20   0
Fort Stockton                  52  73  44  72 /   0  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 42  57  36  61 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          45  67  39  70 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          39  63  36  63 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  73  43  72 /   0  10  10   0
Odessa                         51  73  43  73 /   0  10  10   0
Wink                           49  73  42  73 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/44/44

  • National Weather Service
  • Southern Region Headquarters
  • 819 Taylor Street, Room 10A06
  • Fort Worth, TX 76102
  • Page Author: NWS Fort Worth
  • Web Master: SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov
  •  
  • Page last modified: 30-Sep-2016 6:36 PM UTC
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