Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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357
FXUS64 KMAF 231651
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1151 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue at southeast New Mexico
and southwest Texas terminals through Sunday morning. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible mainly from southeast New Mexico into
Davis Mountains area, potentially impacting CNM, HOB, PEQ and INK.
The probability of occurrence is too low to include in area TAFs.
Winds will be generally southerly at less than 12 knots with
stronger southerly winds over the Permian Basin.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas during the next 24 hours.  Isolated thunderstorms are expected
to develop this afternoon and evening, but probabilities are too low
to carry a mention at any area TAF sites.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Our area continues to remain on the west side of the upper ridge
that has been nearly stationary over the Lower Mississippi River
Valley this week. Showers and storms have formed along a sfc trough
axis the last few afternoons and will again today. However, upper
level energy will be displaced well to the north unlike earlier this
week. The upper ridge will also build west across more of our region
today into early next week. For these reasons, only isolated storms
are expected in the higher terrain and adjacent areas for the next
several days. Temperatures will remain about 5 degrees above normal
with very little change in mid level heights.

The upper ridge to our east then begins to break down as a trough
develops across the central U.S. This trough will likely bring a
weak front into the area along with better rain chances late next
week. Timing of the front is in question as the GFS is faster with
the trough while the ECMWF is slower and deeper. Either way we
should see temperatures fall back to near normal for at least a few
days.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05

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