Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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907
FXUS64 KMAF 201949
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
249 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
It appears that despite the lack of a surface focus, low level
moisture enhanced from recent rains is giving enough instability
to allow scattered convection to develop. The bulk of it seems to
be getting help from higher terrain west of the Pecos River,
though a few cells are apparently developing due to daytime
heating and hard to discern mesoscale boundaries. A cell currently
in western Pecos County seems to be telling the story of the
vertical structure of the atmosphere...there is some instability,
but a very long anvil indicates the shear may be bigger factor
thus shearing the storms before they are able to grow large enough
to become severe. This isn`t too surprising given the near 50kts
of 0-6km shear to go along with only 500-1000 J/KG CAPE. Further
north in southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin
shear drops dramatically and instability is even lower so
convection should not get too strong in this area. It will be in
the eastern Permian Basin where shear and POTENTIAL instability
will both be high enough to warrant a severe risk, though CIN due
to earlier rains and lingering clouds may be too much to realize
this instability. Therefore we are not looking for widespread
convection or certainly a severe threat though a few storms may
become severe with large hail and strong winds being the primary
threat.

A weak cold front moves into the area with isolated convection
again possible along this boundary in the lower Trans Pecos as
well as the Davis Mountains where orographics will help out. The
front will bring little if any cool air, but southeast flow on the
back of the surface high will push more moisture into the
mountains Tuesday bringing another chance for isolated
thunderstorms.

Wednesday an upper level trough moves into the central plains
increasing westerly flow. This will sharpen a dryline across the
central Permian Basin from which all models once again show
convective initiation. It is possible there will be fire weather
concerns in the western CWA and severe weather concerns in the
eastern CWA on Wednesday. The dry air will push east with the
upper trough Thursday and continue into Friday leaving very dry
and hot (for this time of year) conditions. An upper trough
digging into the four corners area Saturday could bring a return
of rain chances, though there is not enough model consistent to
introduce PoPs into the forecast at this time.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  84  57  83  /  20  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              60  85  58  83  /  30  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                54  84  58  84  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  62  90  62  90  /  20  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  87  60  85  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          54  76  53  77  /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                   53  82  54  82  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   49  79  51  79  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    59  86  58  84  /  20  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  59  86  59  84  /  20  10  10   0
WINK TX                    56  88  61  87  /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/10

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