Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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961
FXUS64 KMAF 130548
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1248 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
An upper level storm system across New Mexico will combine with a
southward moving cold front in the Texas Panhandle to result in
deteriorating conditions at a majority of the west Texas and
southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Ahead of the
front, light winds and moist air will result in MVFR ceilings and
fog for a few hours around sunrise at KMAF, KINK, KHOB, KCNM.
Behind the front north to northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph and
gusty with MVFR ceilings with light rain is expected to develop at
KCNM and KHOB my mid to late Monday morning and spread south to
KMAF and KINK around 19z. Mainly VFR conditions are expected at
KPEQ and KFST through Monday afternoon with TEMPO conditions in
thunderstorms possible at KPEQ in the 21z-24z time frame.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across
the area through the next 24 hours.  Winds will be gusty in and near
storms.  Winds are primarily expected to be out of the south to
southwest although they will be variable with convection around the
area.  A cold front with elevated and gusty north winds will come
into the area Monday afternoon.  Low ceilings are possible for CNM
around 12z and everywhere else beginning Monday late afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor clearly depicts an upper low sw of KELP with a model
initialized 50-60kt 4h jet. Broad mid level lift is evident too as
seen in cyclonically curved cloud shield on IR, along with cooling
cloud tops. Summary model depiction of this is probably best seen
thru NAM/GFS OMEGA fields, which translate lift across the CWFA
between thru 03z. Lift will be within the 3rd standard deviation
positive PW anomalies and SHRA/TSRA should proliferate in this
environment. Between 18Z-19Z there were approx 300 lightning
strikes within 10-100 miles s of Rio Grande. The models attempt to
capture precip shield that moves SW-NE today, with a low level
wind shift from S to W. Heavy rain is a concern too with such high
ambient mstr content, however cells will be moving about 30 mph,
so flooding concerns will remain mostly local but certainly exist!
A few stong/severe storms cannot be ruled out either in this modest
CAPE/low shear environment, downburst winds/hail. Convection will
probably be strongest on leading edge of the reference rain cooled
air and by late in the day/early this evening there could be a few
areas of further enhancement. One could be across the central PB
where the airmass may have greatest SB destabilization and a
second across the Lower Trans Pecos where richest surface mstr
will be. PoPs will mostly wane into the night. There will be an
exception though, SE NM. Around 12Z wrap around precip will
develop in the area from S Plains into E-SE NM. Cold front is now
shown to arrive much earlier Monday and this will tend to renew
precip development for areas n of I-20, where it will be
noticeably cooler. Precip decreases Mon night/early Tue AM, but
there will be lingering showers, followed by cool, but drier
conditions Tue PM. A mid level trof will deepen near the 4-Corners
Wed with high based SHRA/TSRA possible W-NW late Wed PM into the
night. Assocd frontal timing is uncertain due to uncertainty wrt
where upper low will be. GFS brings the upper low across to the n
with drier/cooler low level air Fri-Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$



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