Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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733
FXUS64 KMAF 311001
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
501 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Satellite imagery shows post-frontal stratus has develped, mainly
south of I-20, but drier air advecting in from the north is
raising cigs, and all termianls should be VFR by issuance time.
Sfc flow will veer to E over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Today`s forecast will be more of a treat than trick as pleasantly
cool temperatures and mostly sunny skies arrive behind a cold front.
Temperatures have cooled into the 40s and 50s north of the front
which has made it into northern Mexico this morning. Highs will stay
mostly in the 60s across the area this afternoon. Cloudy skies
across the higher terrain will slowly clear through the day. Winds
will turn back to the southeast tonight as sfc ridging over the
Southern Plains quickly moves east. This along with increasing high
clouds will help keep temperatures from falling too much Saturday
morning. Even so, still expecting some of the coldest readings of
the year across the area as lows fall into the 30s and 40s.

Attention then turns to the west as a strong upper trough comes
ashore along the West Coast this weekend. Height falls really begin
to affect the area by Sunday when the trough digs into the Desert
SW. Southwest flow aloft will lead to increasing upper level
moisture and possibly some light showers across western areas. A
cold front enters the region Monday night into Tuesday as the trough
gets closer. This will help to focus showers and thunderstorms more,
especially across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos. Models begin to
diverge by midweek, although they are agreeing with each other more
than yesterday. The GFS, CMC, and ECMWF all develop a cut-off low,
but differ in its location. The GFS develops the low over the Big
Bend region while the CMC and ECMWF are farther west over northern
Mexico. These systems are typically very slow moving and models
usually don`t handle them well several days out. No matter which
model pans out, the potential for heavy rain will exist somewhere
across our area. For this forecast, will side more with the majority
and keep highest PoPs along the front Monday night into Tuesday.
Will also extend PoPs into much of next week. Temperatures will also
be chilly behind the front next week with highs well below normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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062
FXUS64 KMAF 310934
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
434 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today`s forecast will be more of a treat than trick as pleasantly
cool temperatures and mostly sunny skies arrive behind a cold front.
Temperatures have cooled into the 40s and 50s north of the front
which has made it into northern Mexico this morning. Highs will stay
mostly in the 60s across the area this afternoon. Cloudy skies
across the higher terrain will slowly clear through the day. Winds
will turn back to the southeast tonight as sfc ridging over the
Southern Plains quickly moves east. This along with increasing high
clouds will help keep temperatures from falling too much Saturday
morning. Even so, still expecting some of the coldest readings of
the year across the area as lows fall into the 30s and 40s.

Attention then turns to the west as a strong upper trough comes
ashore along the West Coast this weekend. Height falls really begin
to affect the area by Sunday when the trough digs into the Desert
SW. Southwest flow aloft will lead to increasing upper level
moisture and possibly some light showers across western areas. A
cold front enters the region Monday night into Tuesday as the trough
gets closer. This will help to focus showers and thunderstorms more,
especially across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos. Models begin to
diverge by midweek, although they are agreeing with each other more
than yesterday. The GFS, CMC, and ECMWF all develop a cut-off low,
but differ in its location. The GFS develops the low over the Big
Bend region while the CMC and ECMWF are farther west over northern
Mexico. These systems are typically very slow moving and models
usually don`t handle them well several days out. No matter which
model pans out, the potential for heavy rain will exist somewhere
across our area. For this forecast, will side more with the majority
and keep highest PoPs along the front Monday night into Tuesday.
Will also extend PoPs into much of next week. Temperatures will also
be chilly behind the front next week with highs well below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  42  68  49  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              68  42  69  51  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                70  46  74  49  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  74  48  71  52  /  20   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           70  48  73  53  /  10   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  44  69  52  /  10   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   67  39  67  45  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   65  39  70  43  /  10   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  42  68  51  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  69  44  68  51  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    71  45  72  51  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/29

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333
FXUS64 KMAF 310514
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc analysis shows the cold front about midway thru the FA,
satellite imagery showing stratus trying to develop SE of KMAF.
Latest buffer soundings and HRRR keep this low cloud E and S of
KMAF, and develop MVFR cigs at KFST ~09-14Z, before scattering
out.  Otherwise, sfc flow will veer to SE over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Not much change this evening, as VFR flight conditions are
expected to prevail tonight. Toward daybreak, RH progs indicate
the potential for high end MVFR ceilings, mainly affecting KFST
and KPEQ, with slightly lesser confidence for KCNM and KINK. Have
maintained the going TEMPOS in the 08-13Z time frame for these
sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail Friday, with winds
remaining around 10-15kt and gradually veering to the east through
the period. Some showers/thunderstorms are possible to the south
Friday morning, though the low chance precludes mention in the
current TAF.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge axis extending from the 4 corners region up across
Montana will move east the next couple of days with mild wx for the
region.  Behind this ridge an upper trough will move onto the West
Coast and bring increasing chances of rain to the area starting
late in the weekend.  By midweek the next upper ridge begins to
build in from the west as dry wx returns.

A cold front was moving through the area as of early afternoon with
a gusty north wind behind it.  As of 19z the front was just passing
through MAF.  Temps will be cooler tonight and tomorrow behind the
front.  Lows tonight will generally be in the 40s to lower 50s as
the wind comes around to the NE.  Highs tomorrow will be it the 60s
with 70s possible closer to the Rio Grande.  Unless a last minute
shower pops up... Midland will officially end the month of October
with only a trace of precipitation.  This will keep 2014 on track
for one of the 10 driest years on record.

Could see a few showers or storms tonight into tomorrow over the
Lower Trans Pecos with the front but not expecting much from this.
Models do develop some light qpf and may be enough moisture south to
work with.  A better chance of rain looks to be Sunday night through
Tuesday night with the upper trough approaching.  Models not in
agreement as to the strength of the next trough so for now will keep
chance pops as they are.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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717
FXUS64 KMAF 302340
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
640 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Not much change this evening, as VFR flight conditions are
expected to prevail tonight. Toward daybreak, RH progs indicate
the potential for high end MVFR ceilings, mainly affecting KFST
and KPEQ, with slightly lesser confidence for KCNM and KINK. Have
maintained the going TEMPOS in the 08-13Z time frame for these
sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail Friday, with winds
remaining around 10-15kt and gradually veering to the east through
the period. Some showers/thunderstorms are possible to the south
Friday morning, though the low chance precludes mention in the
current TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge axis extending from the 4 corners region up across
Montana will move east the next couple of days with mild wx for the
region.  Behind this ridge an upper trough will move onto the West
Coast and bring increasing chances of rain to the area starting
late in the weekend.  By midweek the next upper ridge begins to
build in from the west as dry wx returns.

A cold front was moving through the area as of early afternoon with
a gusty north wind behind it.  As of 19z the front was just passing
through MAF.  Temps will be cooler tonight and tomorrow behind the
front.  Lows tonight will generally be in the 40s to lower 50s as
the wind comes around to the NE.  Highs tomorrow will be it the 60s
with 70s possible closer to the Rio Grande.  Unless a last minute
shower pops up... Midland will officially end the month of October
with only a trace of precipitation.  This will keep 2014 on track
for one of the 10 driest years on record.

Could see a few showers or storms tonight into tomorrow over the
Lower Trans Pecos with the front but not expecting much from this.
Models do develop some light qpf and may be enough moisture south to
work with.  A better chance of rain looks to be Sunday night through
Tuesday night with the upper trough approaching.  Models not in
agreement as to the strength of the next trough so for now will keep
chance pops as they are.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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241
FXUS64 KMAF 301909
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
209 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge axis extending from the 4 corners region up across
Montana will move east the next couple of days with mild wx for the
region.  Behind this ridge an upper trough will move onto the West
Coast and bring increasing chances of rain to the area starting
late in the weekend.  By midweek the next upper ridge begins to
build in from the west as dry wx returns.

A cold front was moving through the area as of early afternoon with
a gusty north wind behind it.  As of 19z the front was just passing
through MAF.  Temps will be cooler tonight and tomorrow behind the
front.  Lows tonight will generally be in the 40s to lower 50s as
the wind comes around to the NE.  Highs tomorrow will be it the 60s
with 70s possible closer to the Rio Grande.  Unless a last minute
shower pops up... Midland will officially end the month of October
with only a trace of precipitation.  This will keep 2014 on track
for one of the 10 driest years on record.

Could see a few showers or storms tonight into tomorrow over the
Lower Trans Pecos with the front but not expecting much from this.
Models do develop some light qpf and may be enough moisture south to
work with.  A better chance of rain looks to be Sunday night through
Tuesday night with the upper trough approaching.  Models not in
agreement as to the strength of the next trough so for now will keep
chance pops as they are.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 47  65  42  66  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              48  67  42  65  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                47  67  46  70  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  59  71  48  69  /  30  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           52  66  48  72  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          46  60  44  65  /  10  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   43  65  41  65  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   46  62  39  69  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    49  66  43  67  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  51  65  44  67  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    52  68  45  72  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/72

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949
FXUS64 KMAF 301740
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front is currently moving into the area and winds will shift
to the north to northeast with some gusts.  Winds are expected to
weaken around 00z then become elevated again around 03z while
shifting more to the east. MVFR ceilings are possible early tomorrow
morning.  FST and PEQ will have the best chances of seeing low
clouds.  Showers and thunderstorms are possible for tomorrow morning
but chances are too low to put into the TAFS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Warm temperatures today will transition to much cooler as a cold
front arrives just in time for Halloween. Rain chances also return
early next week.

Modest southerly flow has helped to increase low level moisture
across the area this morning which is leading to some low cloud
and fog development. Meanwhile, a cold front has entered the TX
Panhandle and will continue south throughout the day. Drier air
behind the front will help to erode the low clouds as the boundary
makes its way to the I-20 corridor around lunch time. Temperatures
will not warm too much across the northern Permian Basin today
with the earlier frontal passage, but the rest of the region
should see temps well into the 70s and 80s. The front could spark
an isolated shower across the lower Trans Pecos west to the Davis
Mnts tonight into Friday morning as the boundary begins to slow
down.

Temperatures behind the front will cool below normal for Halloween
with highs only making it into the 60s and low 70s. Sfc ridging will
quickly move east Friday night, thus protecting most of the region
from seeing their first freeze.

Upper flow begins to amplify over the weekend as a deep trough moves
onto the West Coast. The initial wave that rounds the base of the
trough on Saturday quickly moves into the northern Rockies. Model
solutions then begin to diverge on the evolution of the trough
thereafter. The GFS continues to be more progressive/drier while the
ECMWF is slower/wetter as it develops a cut-off low to our west. The
ECMWF has had run to run consistency as of late, but the GFS
agrees more with the Canadian and other ensembles so will trend
more toward the GFS for now. Height falls begin to affect the
region Sunday and Monday so we could see areas of light showers
develop almost anywhere. A cold front will move south and begin to
focus showers and thunderstorms along it Monday night into
Tuesday. There exists a potential for heavy rain given abnormally
high PWATS and ample lift from the upper trough and cold front. At
this time it appears the best chance for rain is Monday night and
Tuesday. Depending on what happens with the upper trough, PoPs may
need to be upped later next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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303
FXUS64 KMAF 300953
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
453 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Despite clear skies and light winds, fog/stratus has yet to
develop at 10Z. This puts the HRRR out to lunch. However, latest
NAM buffer soundings still hint at a couple of hours of LIFR
conditions at KMAF, and MVFR at KCNM and KINK. All other terminals
should stay VFR this morning. MVFR cigs will be possible at KINK,
KMAF, and KPEQ tonight as the front moves through. Otherwise, sfc
flow will veer to the north during the next 24 hrs the front settles
into the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Warm temperatures today will transition to much cooler as a cold
front arrives just in time for Halloween. Rain chances also return
early next week.

Modest southerly flow has helped to increase low level moisture
across the area this morning which is leading to some low cloud
and fog development. Meanwhile, a cold front has entered the TX
Panhandle and will continue south throughout the day. Drier air
behind the front will help to erode the low clouds as the boundary
makes its way to the I-20 corridor around lunch time. Temperatures
will not warm too much across the northern Permian Basin today
with the earlier frontal passage, but the rest of the region
should see temps well into the 70s and 80s. The front could spark
an isolated shower across the lower Trans Pecos west to the Davis
Mnts tonight into Friday morning as the boundary begins to slow
down.

Temperatures behind the front will cool below normal for Halloween
with highs only making it into the 60s and low 70s. Sfc ridging will
quickly move east Friday night, thus protecting most of the region
from seeing their first freeze.

Upper flow begins to amplify over the weekend as a deep trough moves
onto the West Coast. The initial wave that rounds the base of the
trough on Saturday quickly moves into the northern Rockies. Model
solutions then begin to diverge on the evolution of the trough
thereafter. The GFS continues to be more progressive/drier while the
ECMWF is slower/wetter as it develops a cut-off low to our west. The
ECMWF has had run to run consistency as of late, but the GFS
agrees more with the Canadian and other ensembles so will trend
more toward the GFS for now. Height falls begin to affect the
region Sunday and Monday so we could see areas of light showers
develop almost anywhere. A cold front will move south and begin to
focus showers and thunderstorms along it Monday night into
Tuesday. There exists a potential for heavy rain given abnormally
high PWATS and ample lift from the upper trough and cold front. At
this time it appears the best chance for rain is Monday night and
Tuesday. Depending on what happens with the upper trough, PoPs may
need to be upped later next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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716
FXUS64 KMAF 300939
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
439 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Warm temperatures today will transition to much cooler as a cold
front arrives just in time for Halloween. Rain chances also return
early next week.

Modest southerly flow has helped to increase low level moisture
across the area this morning which is leading to some low cloud
and fog development. Meanwhile, a cold front has entered the TX
Panhandle and will continue south throughout the day. Drier air
behind the front will help to erode the low clouds as the boundary
makes its way to the I-20 corridor around lunch time. Temperatures
will not warm too much across the northern Permian Basin today
with the earlier frontal passage, but the rest of the region
should see temps well into the 70s and 80s. The front could spark
an isolated shower across the lower Trans Pecos west to the Davis
Mnts tonight into Friday morning as the boundary begins to slow
down.

Temperatures behind the front will cool below normal for Halloween
with highs only making it into the 60s and low 70s. Sfc ridging will
quickly move east Friday night, thus protecting most of the region
from seeing their first freeze.

Upper flow begins to amplify over the weekend as a deep trough moves
onto the West Coast. The initial wave that rounds the base of the
trough on Saturday quickly moves into the northern Rockies. Model
solutions then begin to diverge on the evolution of the trough
thereafter. The GFS continues to be more progressive/drier while the
ECMWF is slower/wetter as it develops a cut-off low to our west. The
ECMWF has had run to run consistency as of late, but the GFS
agrees more with the Canadian and other ensembles so will trend
more toward the GFS for now. Height falls begin to affect the
region Sunday and Monday so we could see areas of light showers
develop almost anywhere. A cold front will move south and begin to
focus showers and thunderstorms along it Monday night into
Tuesday. There exists a potential for heavy rain given abnormally
high PWATS and ample lift from the upper trough and cold front. At
this time it appears the best chance for rain is Monday night and
Tuesday. Depending on what happens with the upper trough, PoPs may
need to be upped later next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  48  67  43  /   0  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              81  48  69  43  /   0  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                80  47  69  46  /   0  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  83  59  73  49  /  10  30  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  53  68  49  /   0  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  46  62  45  /   0  10  10   0
HOBBS NM                   78  43  66  41  /   0  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   79  46  66  39  /  10  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  50  69  44  /   0  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  82  51  67  45  /   0  10  10   0
WINK TX                    85  52  70  46  /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/29

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582
FXUS64 KMAF 300520
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1220 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Clear skies, light winds, buffer soundings, and the HRRR all
develop LIFR/VLIFR cigs/vsbys at all terminals except KHOB and
KFST for 2-3 hours just after sunrise. Buffer soundings and HRRR
differ slightly on location and timing, so this will have to be
adjusted as needed. Otherwise, sfc flow will veer to the north
during the day as a weak cold front settles into the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Shallow low level mstr will creep back into most of that TAF sites
overnight increasing the chance for MVFR VSBY/CIGS, possibly IFR.
High resolution models forecast the RH to be near 100 PCT by near 12Z
at all but CNM/FST. As such have opted to bring down VSBY to 1SM
or less at MAF/HOB/INK/PEQ. Soundings show CIGS/VSBY lifting around
15Z and this makes sense considering how shallow mstr will be.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures are a little warmer today as surface winds are
southeasterly and the surface ridge has moved well to the east of
the region.  An upper trough is over the eastern conus with ridging
over the southwest conus.  This upper pattern has resulted in the
area being under west to northwest flow aloft with possible
shortwaves moving over the region on the backside of this upper
trough.  Due to this upper lift being present, there is a very
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Big Bend and
Davis Mountains area today and tomorrow afternoon but do not have
enough confidence add in pops at this time.  Patchy fog is possible
tonight and early tomorrow morning across portions of the Permian
Basin, southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, and southward to parts of
Brewster County as winds will be light and moisture will remain
across the area.

The upper ridge will become more centered over the region on
Thursday.  A secondary cold front associated with the upper trough
centered over the Great Lakes region will push into the area
Thursday evening.  Lift and moisture convergence will increase
across the area as a result of this front, so there will be a slight
chance of thunderstorms across the CWA on Friday.  Temperatures will
be a cooler behind this front bringing highs into the mid to upper
60s across the Permian Basin on Friday.

Upper ridging will continue across the region on Saturday with the
previously mentioned upper trough over the east coast and another
upper trough over the western conus.  Temperatures will warm
slightly on Saturday as surface winds become more southerly. The
upper trough over the western conus moves closer to the CWA on
Sunday allowing for lee surface troughing to develop across West
Texas and southeast New Mexico.  This will result in a further warm
up on Sunday.

The upper trough will move closer the region on Monday and upper
lift will increase.  The GFS and ECMWF are not in agreement on the
position of the upper trough.  The GFS is faster with the trough and
therefore pushes the rain and an associated cold front through the
area faster.  It appears that the cold front will move through the
area sometime Tuesday.  The ECMWF keeps the rain through Wednesday
while the GFS ends it on Tuesday so pops remain very uncertain for
these two days.  Expect temperatures to be cooler for Tuesday and
Wednesday due to the cold front and increased cloud cover.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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958
FXUS64 KMAF 292325
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
625 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Shallow low level mstr will creep back into most of that TAF sites
overnight increasing the chance for MVFR VSBY/CIGS, possibly IFR.
High resolution models forecast the RH to be near 100 PCT by near 12Z
at all but CNM/FST. As such have opted to bring down VSBY to 1SM
or less at MAF/HOB/INK/PEQ. Soundings show CIGS/VSBY lifting around
15Z and this makes sense considering how shallow mstr will be.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures are a little warmer today as surface winds are
southeasterly and the surface ridge has moved well to the east of
the region.  An upper trough is over the eastern conus with ridging
over the southwest conus.  This upper pattern has resulted in the
area being under west to northwest flow aloft with possible
shortwaves moving over the region on the backside of this upper
trough.  Due to this upper lift being present, there is a very
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Big Bend and
Davis Mountains area today and tomorrow afternoon but do not have
enough confidence add in pops at this time.  Patchy fog is possible
tonight and early tomorrow morning across portions of the Permian
Basin, southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, and southward to parts of
Brewster County as winds will be light and moisture will remain
across the area.

The upper ridge will become more centered over the region on
Thursday.  A secondary cold front associated with the upper trough
centered over the Great Lakes region will push into the area
Thursday evening.  Lift and moisture convergence will increase
across the area as a result of this front, so there will be a slight
chance of thunderstorms across the CWA on Friday.  Temperatures will
be a cooler behind this front bringing highs into the mid to upper
60s across the Permian Basin on Friday.

Upper ridging will continue across the region on Saturday with the
previously mentioned upper trough over the east coast and another
upper trough over the western conus.  Temperatures will warm
slightly on Saturday as surface winds become more southerly. The
upper trough over the western conus moves closer to the CWA on
Sunday allowing for lee surface troughing to develop across West
Texas and southeast New Mexico.  This will result in a further warm
up on Sunday.

The upper trough will move closer the region on Monday and upper
lift will increase.  The GFS and ECMWF are not in agreement on the
position of the upper trough.  The GFS is faster with the trough and
therefore pushes the rain and an associated cold front through the
area faster.  It appears that the cold front will move through the
area sometime Tuesday.  The ECMWF keeps the rain through Wednesday
while the GFS ends it on Tuesday so pops remain very uncertain for
these two days.  Expect temperatures to be cooler for Tuesday and
Wednesday due to the cold front and increased cloud cover.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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606
FXUS64 KMAF 291925
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
224 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures are a little warmer today as surface winds are
southeasterly and the surface ridge has moved well to the east of
the region.  An upper trough is over the eastern conus with ridging
over the southwest conus.  This upper pattern has resulted in the
area being under west to northwest flow aloft with possible
shortwaves moving over the region on the backside of this upper
trough.  Due to this upper lift being present, there is a very
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Big Bend and
Davis Mountains area today and tomorrow afternoon but do not have
enough confidence add in pops at this time.  Patchy fog is possible
tonight and early tomorrow morning across portions of the Permian
Basin, southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, and southward to parts of
Brewster County as winds will be light and moisture will remain
across the area.

The upper ridge will become more centered over the region on
Thursday.  A secondary cold front associated with the upper trough
centered over the Great Lakes region will push into the area
Thursday evening.  Lift and moisture convergence will increase
across the area as a result of this front, so there will be a slight
chance of thunderstorms across the CWA on Friday.  Temperatures will
be a cooler behind this front bringing highs into the mid to upper
60s across the Permian Basin on Friday.

Upper ridging will continue across the region on Saturday with the
previously mentioned upper trough over the east coast and another
upper trough over the western conus.  Temperatures will warm
slightly on Saturday as surface winds become more southerly. The
upper trough over the western conus moves closer to the CWA on
Sunday allowing for lee surface troughing to develop across West
Texas and southeast New Mexico.  This will result in a further warm
up on Sunday.

The upper trough will move closer the region on Monday and upper
lift will increase.  The GFS and ECMWF are not in agreement on the
position of the upper trough.  The GFS is faster with the trough and
therefore pushes the rain and an associated cold front through the
area faster.  It appears that the cold front will move through the
area sometime Tuesday.  The ECMWF keeps the rain through Wednesday
while the GFS ends it on Tuesday so pops remain very uncertain for
these two days.  Expect temperatures to be cooler for Tuesday and
Wednesday due to the cold front and increased cloud cover.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  77  45  66  /   0   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              55  77  45  67  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                48  76  48  69  /   0   0  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  62  81  60  73  /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  82  54  69  /  10  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  74  46  62  /   0   0  20  20
HOBBS NM                   51  75  45  66  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   45  77  48  67  /  10  10  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    55  79  47  68  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  55  79  47  68  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                    55  80  51  70  /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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461
FXUS64 KMAF 291640
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1140 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and tonight, but
conditions are expected to deteriorate late tonight and Thursday
morning.  At least MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be
possible as low level moisture returns tomorrow morning.
Therefore, will introduce the lower conditions at most terminals
around 30/12Z and after.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows a wide, rather flat ridge over the western CONUS,
leaving West Texas and SE NM under cool, stable NW flow aloft at the
moment.  Leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of a shortwave
diving out of Canada will veer sfc flow back to the SE this
afternoon, putting temps on the rebound from yesterday.  Sfc obs
indicate models have been a bit too moist in the short term,
suggesting a wider diurnal spread on temps, which would favor the
NAM MOS numbers and put highs around 10F above normal Thu
afternoon.  Thu night and Fri, a strong cold front associated w/the
Canadian front mentioned above will backdoor the FA, and bring a
slight chance of convection along the front as it moves thru.  Front
looks stronger than 24 hours ago, and we`ve lowered highs Friday
afternoon accordingly--slightly below normal.

Into the weekend, the upper ridge begins shifting further east into
Texas in response to an upper trough making landfall on the west
coast.  However, forecast soundings and H85 temp fields keep warming
temps thru the weekend under SW flow aloft.  In the meantime, a
tropical disturbance currently on WV imagery south of deep south
Mexico is forecast to develop into a tropical storm and move north
into the Gulf of California by 12Z Tuesday.  By this time, a
secondary upper trough is forecast to cut off from the west coast
trough over SW AZ.  This is forecast to draw remnant moisture from
the tropical system into SW flow aloft, and meet w/a strong cold
front Tuesday afternoon over West Texas/SE NM.  Forecast soundings
develop PWATs of 1.4" or better by this time, over 3 STD DEVs above
normal and near the climatological max.  One would be hard-pressed
to conjure up a better scenario for rain for this area than this.
To make matters better, the GFS, ECMWF, and DGEX are in unusually
good agreement on placement of the trough and timing of the front
this far out.  Because of this, we`ll raise convective chances beginning
Monday, and carry increased coverage thru Tuesday night, w/best
chances Tuesday.  These chances will likely need to be extended, as
the trough is not forecast to exit the area until Thursday
night.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/44

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481
FXUS64 KMAF 281932
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
231 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures are much cooler today behind the cold front with
northeast winds across the area.  An upper trough is over the Upper
Midwest with weak ridging over the southwest conus.  Surface winds
will become southeasterly by Wednesday afternoon as the surface
ridge moves eastward.  This will result in slightly warmer
temperatures for the CWA during the day tomorrow.  The area will be
under west to northwest flow aloft with possible shortwaves moving
over the region on the backside of the upper trough.  Due to this
upper lift being present, there is a very slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms across the Big Bend area tomorrow afternoon but
left mention of pops out for now.

The upper ridge will become more centered over the region on
Thursday allowing for upper lift to decrease.  A secondary cold
front associated with the upper trough centered over the Great Lakes
region will push into the area on Friday morning.  Lift and moisture
convergence will increase across the area as a result of this front,
so there will be a slight chance of thunderstorms across the CWA on
Friday.  Temperatures will be a little cooler behind this front
bringing highs from the mid to upper 70s on the previous day to the
lower 70s across the Permian Basin on Friday.

Upper ridging will continue across the region on Saturday with the
previously mentioned upper trough over the east coast and another
upper trough over the western conus.  Temperatures will warm
slightly on Saturday as surface winds become more southerly. The
upper trough over the western conus moves closer to the CWA on
Sunday allowing for lee surface troughing to develop across West
Texas and southeast New Mexico.  A dryline appears to develop across
the area as a result, so there is a slight chance of thunderstorms
developing across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.
Left out rain chances for now but pops may need to be added in on
later shifts.

The upper trough will begin to move over the region on Monday and
upper lift will increase.  The GFS and ECMWF are in agreement on
precipitation developing across the area on Monday so have added
pops to the forecast across the eastern CWA as this area will likely
be on the east side of the dryline.  Showers and thunderstorms will
be moving east of the CWA on Tuesday as the upper trough moves
overhead causing a cold front to push through the area pushing the
dryline south and eastward.  Temperatures will cool into the mid
sixties to lower 70s across the Permian Basin on Tuesday as a result
of this front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 46  73  53  77  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              48  73  52  77  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                49  74  49  78  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  61  76  61  80  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           53  76  56  82  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  72  52  75  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   46  72  53  76  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   43  73  45  77  /   0  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    47  74  54  78  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  47  74  54  78  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    49  76  53  81  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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266
FXUS64 KMAF 281651
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1151 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds have begun to decrease across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas.  VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014/

At 0730Z, WV imagery showed the upper trough entering MN, and
extending SE thru West Texas. KMAF 88D showed the associated cold
front just north of KMAF, a couple of hours ahead of what models
have been forecasting, w/modest pressure rises behind. Forecast
soundings/H85 temp fields suggest temps this afternoon should come
in at or below normal, bringing an end to the unseasonably warm
weather of late. The synoptic pattern for the next 10 days
suggests these temps will not return. Unfortunately, mesoanalysis
indicates very little instability to work with, and models keep
convective initiation NE and E of the FA today as the front pushes
thru.

Upper ridging follows the front Wednesday/Thursday, w/a concurrent
warming trend, but is quickly shunted east as a deep trough makes
landfall on the west coast.  Meanwhile, a weaker trough will dive
out of Canada into the Great Lakes region, and send a secondary shot
of cold air into the area Thursday night, bringing temps back to
normal Friday afternoon.  A recovery on temps is made into the
weekend under SW flow aloft as the west coast trough approaches,
especially Sunday/Monday as leeside troughing on the Front Range
introduces westerly downslope flow west of a dryline into the area.
Models begin diverging on the speed of the trough as it moves thru,
w/the DGEX fastest, followed by the GFS, and then the ECMWF.  All
models bring a cold front into the region anywhere from late Sunday
night (DGEX) to late Monday night (ECMWF), and overtake the dryline,
bringing a chance to the area.  Due to these differences, we`ll
split the difference and mention a slight chance of convection NE
zones Monday, and readjust later as necessary.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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627
FXUS64 KMAF 281053
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
553 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
Cold front has made it to the Pecos River Valley with northerly
winds gusting to 20 kts behind it. Winds will diminish by early
afternoon and VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

At 0730Z, WV imagery showed the upper trough entering MN, and
extending SE thru West Texas.  KMAF 88D showed the associated cold
front just north of KMAF, a couple of hours ahead of what models
have been forecasting, w/modest pressure rises behind.  Forecast
soundings/H85 temp fields suggest temps this afternoon should come
in at or below normal, bringing an end to the unseasonably warm
weather of late.  The synoptic pattern for the next 10 days suggests
these temps will not return.  Unfortunately, mesoanalysis indicates
very little instability to work with, and models keep convective
initiation NE and E of the FA today as the front pushes thru.

Upper ridging follows the front Wednesday/Thursday, w/a concurrent
warming trend, but is quickly shunted east as a deep trough makes
landfall on the west coast.  Meanwhile, a weaker trough will dive
out of Canada into the Great Lakes region, and send a secondary shot
of cold air into the area Thursday night, bringing temps back to
normal Friday afternoon.  A recovery on temps is made into the
weekend under SW flow aloft as the west coast trough approaches,
especially Sunday/Monday as leeside troughing on the Front Range
introduces westerly downslope flow west of a dryline into the area.
Models begin diverging on the speed of the trough as it moves thru,
w/the DGEX fastest, followed by the GFS, and then the ECMWF.  All
models bring a cold front into the region anywhere from late Sunday
night (DGEX) to late Monday night (ECMWF), and overtake the dryline,
bringing a chance to the area.  Due to these differences, we`ll
split the difference and mention a slight chance of convection NE
zones Monday, and readjust later as necessary.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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153
FXUS64 KMAF 280900
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

At 0730Z, WV imagery showed the upper trough entering MN, and
extending SE thru West Texas.  KMAF 88D showed the associated cold
front just north of KMAF, a couple of hours ahead of what models
have been forecasting, w/modest pressure rises behind.  Forecast
soundings/H85 temp fields suggest temps this afternoon should come
in at or below normal, bringing an end to the unseasonably warm
weather of late.  The synoptic pattern for the next 10 days suggests
these temps will not return.  Unfortunately, mesoanalysis indicates
very little instability to work with, and models keep convective
initiation NE and E of the FA today as the front pushes thru.

Upper ridging follows the front Wednesday/Thursday, w/a concurrent
warming trend, but is quickly shunted east as a deep trough makes
landfall on the west coast.  Meanwhile, a weaker trough will dive
out of Canada into the Great Lakes region, and send a secondary shot
of cold air into the area Thursday night, bringing temps back to
normal Friday afternoon.  A recovery on temps is made into the
weekend under SW flow aloft as the west coast trough approaches,
especially Sunday/Monday as leeside troughing on the Front Range
introduces westerly downslope flow west of a dryline into the area.
Models begin diverging on the speed of the trough as it moves thru,
w/the DGEX fastest, followed by the GFS, and then the ECMWF.  All
models bring a cold front into the region anywhere from late Sunday
night (DGEX) to late Monday night (ECMWF), and overtake the dryline,
bringing a chance to the area.  Due to these differences, we`ll
split the difference and mention a slight chance of convection NE
zones Monday, and readjust later as necessary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  48  75  55  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              69  50  75  52  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                65  49  75  49  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  78  62  78  63  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  55  77  57  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  50  70  55  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   67  46  75  52  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   72  43  73  45  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  48  75  53  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  69  47  75  54  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    73  50  77  53  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/44

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223
FXUS64 KMAF 280508
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1208 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
A cold front has made its way into the northern Permian Basin this
morning. This front will slowly push south reaching the Pecos
River around sunrise. Northerly winds will become gusty behind the
front this morning before decreasing during the early afternoon.
High clouds across the region will continue to move east and clear
the area later this morning. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 158 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front will drop south through the region tonight and Tuesday
in the wake of an upper trough crossing over the central Rockies
today and into the Great Lakes region Tuesday.  The center of the
associated surface ridge will settle into north Texas/Oklahoma
Tuesday, then into the Mississippi River Valley Wednesday.  High
temperatures Tuesday will be a good 15 to 20 degrees lower than
today, and near normal Wednesday.  Since the surface ridge will
shift eastward rapidly, low level moisture will return fairly
rapidly Wednesday, and along with a weak secondary shortwave
trough over the region then, allow for a isolated showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday.

An upper ridge will build back over the region Thursday, which is
looking like the warmest day of the week, but another weaker cold
front will drop into the area Friday and hold temperatures at bay
into Saturday.  However, another stronger ua trough will traverse
the western ConUS this weekend, putting the region under increasing
southwesterly flow aloft.  This will allow temperatures to rebound
above normal out west Saturday, and over most of the rest of the
area Sunday.  If model trends continue to amplify this next ua
trough more, rain chances could be introduced in the forecast as
early as Sunday through Tuesday.  Of a little more certainty is
another cold front cooling temperatures back near normal, or below,
Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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099
FXUS64 KMAF 272316
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light southwest winds tonight with a shift from the northeast and
becoming gusty after 12Z with the arrival of a cold front. MVFR
conditions through the period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 158 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front will drop south through the region tonight and Tuesday
in the wake of an upper trough crossing over the central Rockies
today and into the Great Lakes region Tuesday.  The center of the
associated surface ridge will settle into north Texas/Oklahoma
Tuesday, then into the Mississippi River Valley Wednesday.  High
temperatures Tuesday will be a good 15 to 20 degrees lower than
today, and near normal Wednesday.  Since the surface ridge will
shift eastward rapidly, low level moisture will return fairly
rapidly Wednesday, and along with a weak secondary shortwave
trough over the region then, allow for a isolated showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday.

An upper ridge will build back over the region Thursday, which is
looking like the warmest day of the week, but another weaker cold
front will drop into the area Friday and hold temperatures at bay
into Saturday.  However, another stronger ua trough will traverse
the western ConUS this weekend, putting the region under increasing
southwesterly flow aloft.  This will allow temperatures to rebound
above normal out west Saturday, and over most of the rest of the
area Sunday.  If model trends continue to amplify this next ua
trough more, rain chances could be introduced in the forecast as
early as Sunday through Tuesday.  Of a little more certainty is
another cold front cooling temperatures back near normal, or below,
Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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426
FXUS64 KMAF 271858
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
158 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front will drop south through the region tonight and Tuesday
in the wake of an upper trough crossing over the central Rockies
today and into the Great Lakes region Tuesday.  The center of the
associated surface ridge will settle into north Texas/Oklahoma
Tuesday, then into the Mississippi River Valley Wednesday.  High
temperatures Tuesday will be a good 15 to 20 degrees lower than
today, and near normal Wednesday.  Since the surface ridge will
shift eastward rapidly, low level moisture will return fairly
rapidly Wednesday, and along with a weak secondary shortwave
trough over the region then, allow for a isolated showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday.

An upper ridge will build back over the region Thursday, which is
looking like the warmest day of the week, but another weaker cold
front will drop into the area Friday and hold temperatures at bay
into Saturday.  However, another stronger ua trough will traverse
the western ConUS this weekend, putting the region under increasing
southwesterly flow aloft.  This will allow temperatures to rebound
above normal out west Saturday, and over most of the rest of the
area Sunday.  If model trends continue to amplify this next ua
trough more, rain chances could be introduced in the forecast as
early as Sunday through Tuesday.  Of a little more certainty is
another cold front cooling temperatures back near normal, or below,
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 51  70  45  72  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              54  70  47  72  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                53  70  46  73  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  63  81  61  76  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  74  53  74  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  68  49  71  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   46  68  43  71  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   46  74  44  72  /   0   0  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    53  71  46  73  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  54  71  47  73  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    53  71  48  74  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/67

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140
FXUS64 KMAF 271726
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be elevated and gusty out of the west to southwest this
afternoon before weakening by sunset.  A cold front with gusty north
to northeast winds will push through the area beginning around 09z
Tuesday with winds decreasing toward 18z.  Scattered to broken high
clouds will remain over the area through the afternoon.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Modest surface pressure falls will occur today underneath
strengthening mid level flow. Even though today`s MSLP gradient
is not very tight a well mixed PBL will result in increased winds,
25-35 mph in parts of GDP Mtns and w winds of 10-20 mph across SE
NM/PB. These downslope winds will push high temps to near
record/record levels. 85H temps as warm as 24C will result in N90
with an additional 1-2 degrees due the downslope. Models are in
good agreement with FROPA btwn 06Z-09Z Tue AM across PB, n of
I-20. Post-frontal winds may briefly near 20 mph sustained with
passing isallobaric anticyclone of 6-7mb/3hrs. It will be much
cooler (about 20 degrees) Tue PM, U60s-M70s most places and U40s-
L50s Wed AM, mainly n of I-20 where there will be less cloud
cover. -TSRA will be possible Wed AM per NAM12/GFS with return se
low level flow and weak shrtwv trof. Cool temps will persist into
Wed PM/Thur AM. As the mid level ridge amplifies Thur a weak front
will move swd thru the plains keeping temperatures in check. Said
mid level ridge will move overhead Fri with only a modest warm-up
Sat. Precip will be possible by Mon depending on timing of mid
level trof, attm prefer not to shotgun 20 PoPs.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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873
FXUS64 KMAF 271124
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry, VFR conditions with only high clouds will prevail through the
forecast period. Winds today will increase from the west-southwest
by early afternoon to 10-15kt, gusting to 18-22kt. Expect gusts to
diminish quickly after sunset, and winds to weaken briefly ahead
of a cold front that will move through the area overnight and
Tuesday morning. Winds will veer to the north in the wake of the
front, and increase to 10-15kt. Initial timing of the cold front
is for it to reach KCNM and KHOB by roughly 06-07Z, KMAF by around
09-10Z, and southern TAF sites just beyond the end of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Modest surface pressure falls will occur today underneath
strengthening mid level flow. Even though today`s MSLP gradient
is not very tight a well mixed PBL will result in increased winds,
25-35 mph in parts of GDP Mtns and w winds of 10-20 mph across SE
NM/PB. These downslope winds will push high temps to near
record/record levels. 85H temps as warm as 24C will result in N90
with an additional 1-2 degrees due the downslope. Models are in
good agreement with FROPA btwn 06Z-09Z Tue AM across PB, n of
I-20. Post-frontal winds may briefly near 20 mph sustained with
passing isallobaric anticyclone of 6-7mb/3hrs. It will be much
cooler (about 20 degrees) Tue PM, U60s-M70s most places and U40s-
L50s Wed AM, mainly n of I-20 where there will be less cloud
cover. -TSRA will be possible Wed AM per NAM12/GFS with return se
low level flow and weak shrtwv trof. Cool temps will persist into
Wed PM/Thur AM. As the mid level ridge amplifies Thur a weak front
will move swd thru the plains keeping temperatures in check. Said
mid level ridge will move overhead Fri with only a modest warm-up
Sat. Precip will be possible by Mon depending on timing of mid
level trof, attm prefer not to shotgun 20 PoPs.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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932
FXUS64 KMAF 270840
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
340 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Modest surface pressure falls will occur today underneath
strengthening mid level flow. Even though today`s MSLP gradient
is not very tight a well mixed PBL will result in increased winds,
25-35 mph in parts of GDP Mtns and w winds of 10-20 mph across SE
NM/PB. These downslope winds will push high temps to near
record/record levels. 85H temps as warm as 24C will result in N90
with an additional 1-2 degrees due the downslope. Models are in
good agreement with FROPA btwn 06Z-09Z Tue AM across PB, n of
I-20. Post-frontal winds may briefly near 20 mph sustained with
passing isallobaric anticyclone of 6-7mb/3hrs. It will be much
cooler (about 20 degrees) Tue PM, U60s-M70s most places and U40s-
L50s Wed AM, mainly n of I-20 where there will be less cloud
cover. -TSRA will be possible Wed AM per NAM12/GFS with return se
low level flow and weak shrtwv trof. Cool temps will persist into
Wed PM/Thur AM. As the mid level ridge amplifies Thur a weak front
will move swd thru the plains keeping temperatures in check. Said
mid level ridge will move overhead Fri with only a modest warm-up
Sat. Precip will be possible by Mon depending on timing of mid
level trof, attm prefer not to shotgun 20 PoPs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 90  50  68  47  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              90  52  68  49  /   0  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                89  50  68  46  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  92  60  78  60  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           94  56  68  53  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          81  50  65  49  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   87  45  68  41  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   84  44  74  45  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    91  52  69  48  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  90  53  69  48  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    92  51  73  49  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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941
FXUS64 KMAF 270537 CCA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry, VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites. Have
removed the mention of MVFR fog at KMAF around daybreak, given
drier conditions and winds expected to remain around 10kt
overnight. Winds will veer to the west- southwest on Monday and
increase to 12-15kt, and could gust to 18-22kt at times. Gusts
should diminish not long after sunset Monday evening ahead of a
cold front which looks to pass through KCNM and KHOB just beyond
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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128
FXUS64 KMAF 270534
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry, VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites. Have
removed the mention of MVFR fog at KMAF around daybreak, given
drier conditions and winds expected to remain around 10kt
overnight. Winds will veer to the west- southwest on Monday and
increase to 12-15kt, and could gust to 18-22kt at times. Gusts
should diminish not long after sunset Monday evening ahead of a
cold front which will looks to pass through KCNM and KHOB just
beyond the end of the forecast period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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221
FXUS64 KMAF 262353
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
653 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail with high clouds increasing through the
day Monday. Light winds will be present overnight with winds
picking up and becoming westerly early in the afternoon, ahead of a
cold front expected to move through the area late Monday. Could
see some light fog at MAF around sunrise with MVFR conditions possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Increasing southwest flow aloft over the region ahead of an
eastbound ua trough currently over the western ConUS will promote
mild lows tonight and near record, to record, high temperatures
Monday.  Winds in the Guadalupe Mountains will increase on Monday
too, but it appears not enough for high wind speeds to occur,
partially due to an increase in high cloud cover and resultant
dearth of mixing.  The ua trough will cross the central Rockies
Monday with a cold front diving south into the area Monday night/
Tuesday in it`s wake.  Temperatures on Tuesday will be a few degrees
below normal as a result, especially north of Interstate 10.

A secondary shortwave trough will ease over the region Tuesday
night, and could instigate showers and thunderstorms over the Lower
Trans Pecos, Davis/Glass Mountains, if not the Big Bend region into
Wednesday as low level warm air advection increases over the cooler
airmass.  Have inserted a mention in the forecast, but barring a
stronger shortwave trough, coverage will be isolated.  An ua ridge
will build back over the region, but not as strongly as the latest
ua ridge.  In addition, the flow aloft over the ConUS will remain
amplified, which should limit how much we warm on Thursday before
another frontal boundary aids in keeping temperatures closer to
normal levels Friday and Saturday.  Yet another ua trough will move
ashore over the western ConUS this weekend, which will provide a
warmup Sunday/Monday.  Rain chances through these periods do not
look good, but current progs amplify this next ua trough enough for
rain chances to possibly increase early next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


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649
FXUS64 KMAF 261902
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
202 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Increasing southwest flow aloft over the region ahead of an
eastbound ua trough currently over the western ConUS will promote
mild lows tonight and near record, to record, high temperatures
Monday.  Winds in the Guadalupe Mountains will increase on Monday
too, but it appears not enough for high wind speeds to occur,
partially due to an increase in high cloud cover and resultant
dearth of mixing.  The ua trough will cross the central Rockies
Monday with a cold front diving south into the area Monday night/
Tuesday in it`s wake.  Temperatures on Tuesday will be a few degrees
below normal as a result, especially north of Interstate 10.

A secondary shortwave trough will ease over the region Tuesday
night, and could instigate showers and thunderstorms over the Lower
Trans Pecos, Davis/Glass Mountains, if not the Big Bend region into
Wednesday as low level warm air advection increases over the cooler
airmass.  Have inserted a mention in the forecast, but barring a
stronger shortwave trough, coverage will be isolated.  An ua ridge
will build back over the region, but not as strongly as the latest
ua ridge.  In addition, the flow aloft over the ConUS will remain
amplified, which should limit how much we warm on Thursday before
another frontal boundary aids in keeping temperatures closer to
normal levels Friday and Saturday.  Yet another ua trough will move
ashore over the western ConUS this weekend, which will provide a
warmup Sunday/Monday.  Rain chances through these periods do not
look good, but current progs amplify this next ua trough enough for
rain chances to possibly increase early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 61  89  50  71  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              63  89  52  72  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                58  85  50  70  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  60  90  60  83  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           63  92  56  74  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  80  50  69  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   55  83  45  67  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   47  82  45  71  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  90  52  72  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  64  89  53  71  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  90  51  73  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/67

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205
FXUS64 KMAF 261710
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1202 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be mostly light out of the southwest this afternoon
becoming more southerly this evening and overnight.  Winds will be
elevated with possible gusts out of the southwest to west by late
Monday morning.  There is a slight chance for fog/low visibility
developing around 12z Monday for MAF but the probability remains too
low to mention in the TAFs at this time; otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SW flow aloft will promote prominent low level thermal ridging today
and Monday when 85h temps of 22-25C are forecast, yielding fairly
widespread 85-90 degree high temps. Mid level flow will increase
Mon PM to near 30kts at 7h/20kts at 85h for areas n of I-20 and
will be seen at the surface with w winds of 15-20 mph across the
plains and 20-35 mph thru parts of the GDP Mtns. A cold front will
be moving s thru the plains Mon night/early Tue AM. A 3hr isallobaric
anticyclone, per NAM12 suggest that the front will have a good push
(5-8mb/3hr). This too along with a MSLP gradient near 4mb/100nm
indicates that post-frontal winds in the 15-25 mph are likely. A
tight 85h thermal gradient thru the GDP Mtns supports gusty winds
thru GDP Pass too. It will be much cooler Tue with highs in the
70s. The front will be dry, however return flow/low level WAA
could result in -SHRA Wed AM across the Lower Trans Pecos/Srn PB
with extensive low clouds there too. A weak front will be possible
either late Thur or early Fri AM.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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068
FXUS64 KMAF 261108
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
608 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period for
all TAF sites. Light winds this morning will become southwesterly
by early afternoon, though are expected to remain aob 12kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SW flow aloft will promote prominent low level thermal ridging today
and Monday when 85h temps of 22-25C are forecast, yielding fairly
widespread 85-90 degree high temps. Mid level flow will increase
Mon PM to near 30kts at 7h/20kts at 85h for areas n of I-20 and
will be seen at the surface with w winds of 15-20 mph across the
plains and 20-35 mph thru parts of the GDP Mtns. A cold front will
be moving s thru the plains Mon night/early Tue AM. A 3hr isallobaric
anticyclone, per NAM12 suggest that the front will have a good push
(5-8mb/3hr). This too along with a MSLP gradient near 4mb/100nm
indicates that post-frontal winds in the 15-25 mph are likely. A
tight 85h thermal gradient thru the GDP Mtns supports gusty winds
thru GDP Pass too. It will be much cooler Tue with highs in the
70s. The front will be dry, however return flow/low level WAA
could result in -SHRA Wed AM across the Lower Trans Pecos/Srn PB
with extensive low clouds there too. A weak front will be possible
either late Thur or early Fri AM.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/49

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340
FXUS64 KMAF 260851
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
351 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SW flow aloft will promote prominent low level thermal ridging today
and Monday when 85h temps of 22-25C are forecast, yielding fairly
widespread 85-90 degree high temps. Mid level flow will increase
Mon PM to near 30kts at 7h/20kts at 85h for areas n of I-20 and
will be seen at the surface with w winds of 15-20 mph across the
plains and 20-35 mph thru parts of the GDP Mtns. A cold front will
be moving s thru the plains Mon night/early Tue AM. A 3hr isallobaric
anticyclone, per NAM12 suggest that the front will have a good push
(5-8mb/3hr). This too along with a MSLP gradient near 4mb/100nm
indicates that post-frontal winds in the 15-25 mph are likely. A
tight 85h thermal gradient thru the GDP Mtns supports gusty winds
thru GDP Pass too. It will be much cooler Tue with highs in the
70s. The front will be dry, however return flow/low level WAA
could result in -SHRA Wed AM across the Lower Trans Pecos/Srn PB
with extensive low clouds there too. A weak front will be possible
either late Thur or early Fri AM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 88  59  90  52  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              89  62  89  56  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                89  56  89  50  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  87  62  89  62  /   0  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  61  92  57  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          85  59  83  51  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   87  55  85  47  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   80  47  81  47  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    89  60  91  54  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  88  61  89  55  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    90  60  92  53  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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627
FXUS64 KMAF 260525
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR flight conditions with generally light winds will prevail through
the forecast period across all TAF sites. The only change of note
to the going TAFs was to remove the mention of MVFR fog at KHOB
Sunday morning, as recent guidance indicates the potential for fog
development to be very low.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery shows another clear night over West Texas and SE
NM, w/sfc obs showing a little more return flow than 24 hours ago.
Latest NAM develops a 30+kt LLJ overnight. this, and the fact that
very little fog developed last night, fog development looks
doubtful overnight. The HRRR agrees. However, forecast soundings
suggest temps can be lowered a couple of degrees. We`ll do a quick
update for this, and adjust other parameters as necessary. Updates
out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Areal coverage of fog was less this morning than yesterday, with
only a couple of observation sites reporting dense fog this morning,
and satellite imagery verifying very sparse coverage overall.  An
upper ridge over the region will keep well above normal temperatures
going this afternoon and Sunday.  Further drying of the boundary
layer, and more pointedly the ground, in addition to the warmer
afternoon temperatures taking longer to cool to surface dewpoints
overnight will likely continue the trend of less fog the next couple
of mornings.

The next couple of days temperatures will approach, if not eclipse,
record levels as the ua ridge over the region flattens due to an ua
trough traversing the western/central ConUS.  The record high
temperature for Midland International Airport is 90 degrees for
today, the 25th, but also the 26th and 27th in 2011, 1950 and 1988
respectively.  Although record highs are not looking likely this
afternoon, a surface trough developing south into the area Sunday,
and the associated low level thermal ridge, could allow temps to
warm near record levels.  On Monday, increasing southwesterly flow
aloft will aid and abet southwest to west downslope, surface winds,
which could also promote temperatures warming to near, or above,
record levels.  The only caveat Monday will be some increase in high
clouds tempering readings a little.  Southwest winds will increase
the most in the Guadalupe Mountains Monday, but at this time it does
not appear mid level winds will be strong enough for high winds
there.

A fairly significant cool down is expected Tuesday as a cold front
drops south into the region in the wake of the mentioned ua trough.
Subsequent shifts will have to monitor whether a high gap wind event
will be possible in Guadalupe Pass behind the front.  High
temperatures will end up 2 to 5 degrees below normal Tuesday
afternoon, especially north of Interstate 10.  In addition,
temperatures could cool into the upper 50s over southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin late Tuesday afternoon.  Seasonal
temperatures will prevail areawide Wednesday before a gradual
warming trend sets in Thursday and beyond.  Just how much it warms
late next week will depend on how aggressively an ua ridge builds
eastward over the region, and will likely split the difference
between more/less aggressive model offerings.  As far as rain
chances, showers and thunderstorms could affect the Lower Trans
Pecos, westward into the Davis Mountains and Big Bend region Tuesday
to Thursday.  Since the amplitude of the passing ua troughs are not
progged to be very deep, and the quality of moisture over the region
is not progged to be very good, will leave the extended forecast dry
for now.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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255
FXUS64 KMAF 260216
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
916 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery shows another clear night over West Texas and SE
NM, w/sfc obs showing a little more return flow than 24 hours ago.
Latest NAM develops a 30+kt LLJ overnight. this, and the fact that
very little fog developed last night, fog development looks
doubtful overnight. The HRRR agrees. However, forecast soundings
suggest temps can be lowered a couple of degrees. We`ll do a quick
update for this, and adjust other parameters as necessary. Updates
out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Areal coverage of fog was less this morning than yesterday, with
only a couple of observation sites reporting dense fog this morning,
and satellite imagery verifying very sparse coverage overall.  An
upper ridge over the region will keep well above normal temperatures
going this afternoon and Sunday.  Further drying of the boundary
layer, and more pointedly the ground, in addition to the warmer
afternoon temperatures taking longer to cool to surface dewpoints
overnight will likely continue the trend of less fog the next couple
of mornings.

The next couple of days temperatures will approach, if not eclipse,
record levels as the ua ridge over the region flattens due to an ua
trough traversing the western/central ConUS.  The record high
temperature for Midland International Airport is 90 degrees for
today, the 25th, but also the 26th and 27th in 2011, 1950 and 1988
respectively.  Although record highs are not looking likely this
afternoon, a surface trough developing south into the area Sunday,
and the associated low level thermal ridge, could allow temps to
warm near record levels.  On Monday, increasing southwesterly flow
aloft will aid and abet southwest to west downslope, surface winds,
which could also promote temperatures warming to near, or above,
record levels.  The only caveat Monday will be some increase in high
clouds tempering readings a little.  Southwest winds will increase
the most in the Guadalupe Mountains Monday, but at this time it does
not appear mid level winds will be strong enough for high winds
there.

A fairly significant cool down is expected Tuesday as a cold front
drops south into the region in the wake of the mentioned ua trough.
Subsequent shifts will have to monitor whether a high gap wind event
will be possible in Guadalupe Pass behind the front.  High
temperatures will end up 2 to 5 degrees below normal Tuesday
afternoon, especially north of Interstate 10.  In addition,
temperatures could cool into the upper 50s over southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin late Tuesday afternoon.  Seasonal
temperatures will prevail areawide Wednesday before a gradual
warming trend sets in Thursday and beyond.  Just how much it warms
late next week will depend on how aggressively an ua ridge builds
eastward over the region, and will likely split the difference
between more/less aggressive model offerings.  As far as rain
chances, showers and thunderstorms could affect the Lower Trans
Pecos, westward into the Davis Mountains and Big Bend region Tuesday
to Thursday.  Since the amplitude of the passing ua troughs are not
progged to be very deep, and the quality of moisture over the region
is not progged to be very good, will leave the extended forecast dry
for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 55  88  59  88  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              58  89  62  90  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                53  89  56  89  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  60  87  62  89  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  90  61  90  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  85  59  83  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   53  87  55  85  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   44  80  47  81  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  89  61  90  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  88  62  89  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    55  90  61  90  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44

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718
FXUS64 KMAF 252209
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
509 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions with clear skies are expected the next 24
hours. The only exception was to add a TEMPO group for MVFR vsbys
in BR at KHOB in the 11z-13z Sunday time frame.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Areal coverage of fog was less this morning than yesterday, with
only a couple of observation sites reporting dense fog this morning,
and satellite imagery verifying very sparse coverage overall.  An
upper ridge over the region will keep well above normal temperatures
going this afternoon and Sunday.  Further drying of the boundary
layer, and more pointedly the ground, in addition to the warmer
afternoon temperatures taking longer to cool to surface dewpoints
overnight will likely continue the trend of less fog the next couple
of mornings.

The next couple of days temperatures will approach, if not eclipse,
record levels as the ua ridge over the region flattens due to an ua
trough traversing the western/central ConUS.  The record high
temperature for Midland International Airport is 90 degrees for
today, the 25th, but also the 26th and 27th in 2011, 1950 and 1988
respectively.  Although record highs are not looking likely this
afternoon, a surface trough developing south into the area Sunday,
and the associated low level thermal ridge, could allow temps to
warm near record levels.  On Monday, increasing southwesterly flow
aloft will aid and abet southwest to west downslope, surface winds,
which could also promote temperatures warming to near, or above,
record levels.  The only caveat Monday will be some increase in high
clouds tempering readings a little.  Southwest winds will increase
the most in the Guadalupe Mountains Monday, but at this time it does
not appear mid level winds will be strong enough for high winds
there.

A fairly significant cool down is expected Tuesday as a cold front
drops south into the region in the wake of the mentioned ua trough.
Subsequent shifts will have to monitor whether a high gap wind event
will be possible in Guadalupe Pass behind the front.  High
temperatures will end up 2 to 5 degrees below normal Tuesday
afternoon, especially north of Interstate 10.  In addition,
temperatures could cool into the upper 50s over southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin late Tuesday afternoon.  Seasonal
temperatures will prevail areawide Wednesday before a gradual
warming trend sets in Thursday and beyond.  Just how much it warms
late next week will depend on how aggressively an ua ridge builds
eastward over the region, and will likely split the difference
between more/less aggressive model offerings.  As far as rain
chances, showers and thunderstorms could affect the Lower Trans
Pecos, westward into the Davis Mountains and Big Bend region Tuesday
to Thursday.  Since the amplitude of the passing ua troughs are not
progged to be very deep, and the quality of moisture over the region
is not progged to be very good, will leave the extended forecast dry
for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 59  88  59  88  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              61  89  62  90  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  89  56  89  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  87  62  89  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           62  90  61  90  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  85  59  83  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   53  87  55  85  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   47  80  47  81  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  89  61  90  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  61  88  62  89  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  90  61  90  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/67

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227
FXUS64 KMAF 251848
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
148 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Areal coverage of fog was less this morning than yesterday, with
only a couple of observation sites reporting dense fog this morning,
and satellite imagery verifying very sparse coverage overall.  An
upper ridge over the region will keep well above normal temperatures
going this afternoon and Sunday.  Further drying of the boundary
layer, and more pointedly the ground, in addition to the warmer
afternoon temperatures taking longer to cool to surface dewpoints
overnight will likely continue the trend of less fog the next couple
of mornings.

The next couple of days temperatures will approach, if not eclipse,
record levels as the ua ridge over the region flattens due to an ua
trough traversing the western/central ConUS.  The record high
temperature for Midland International Airport is 90 degrees for
today, the 25th, but also the 26th and 27th in 2011, 1950 and 1988
respectively.  Although record highs are not looking likely this
afternoon, a surface trough developing south into the area Sunday,
and the associated low level thermal ridge, could allow temps to
warm near record levels.  On Monday, increasing southwesterly flow
aloft will aid and abet southwest to west downslope, surface winds,
which could also promote temperatures warming to near, or above,
record levels.  The only caveat Monday will be some increase in high
clouds tempering readings a little.  Southwest winds will increase
the most in the Guadalupe Mountains Monday, but at this time it does
not appear mid level winds will be strong enough for high winds
there.

A fairly significant cool down is expected Tuesday as a cold front
drops south into the region in the wake of the mentioned ua trough.
Subsequent shifts will have to monitor whether a high gap wind event
will be possible in Guadalupe Pass behind the front.  High
temperatures will end up 2 to 5 degrees below normal Tuesday
afternoon, especially north of Interstate 10.  In addition,
temperatures could cool into the upper 50s over southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin late Tuesday afternoon.  Seasonal
temperatures will prevail areawide Wednesday before a gradual
warming trend sets in Thursday and beyond.  Just how much it warms
late next week will depend on how aggressively an ua ridge builds
eastward over the region, and will likely split the difference
between more/less aggressive model offerings.  As far as rain
chances, showers and thunderstorms could affect the Lower Trans
Pecos, westward into the Davis Mountains and Big Bend region Tuesday
to Thursday.  Since the amplitude of the passing ua troughs are not
progged to be very deep, and the quality of moisture over the region
is not progged to be very good, will leave the extended forecast dry
for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 59  88  59  88  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              61  89  62  90  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  89  56  89  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  87  62  89  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           62  90  61  90  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  85  59  83  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   53  87  55  85  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   47  80  47  81  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  89  61  90  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  61  88  62  89  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  90  61  90  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/67

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704
FXUS64 KMAF 251730
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1227 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will generally remain light out of the south through the
period.  There is a slight chance of fog for HOB, INK, and PEQ
Sunday morning but do not have much confidence in this; otherwise,
conditions will be VFR.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Another clear, cool morning is on tap today, though we do not
expect to see a repeat of the dense fog experienced the last two
mornings. Boundary layer moisture has decreased, and at this time,
temperature-dewpoint spreads across the Southeast New Mexico
Plains, Permian Basin, and Trans Pecos are still in the 4-7 degree
range. Some shallow, light, patchy fog may develop in the hours
around daybreak, but it should not cause the problems nor
visibility restrictions of the past two days, and should be quick
to burn off by mid-morning. Temperatures will rebound nicely today
after a cool morning, as high pressure and upper level ridging
continue to develop over New Mexico and West Texas. Highs today
should be at least a degree or two warmer than yesterday for all
locations, with low to middle 80s across higher elevations, upper
80s elsewhere, and near 90 degrees in the Trans Pecos and Rio
Grande Valley. The warm weather will stick around through Monday,
though Sunday looks to be the warmest day in the near-term, with
near record high temperatures currently forecast.

The GFS and ECMWF continue to be in good agreement regarding the
evolution of the weather pattern moving into next week, and thus,
not many changes were made to the going forecast through the
extended. The ridge of high pressure which will dominate sensible
weather across our area this weekend will gradually flatten and
shift to the east ahead of a developing Pacific trough.  This trough
will progress through the central CONUS, accompanied by a cold front
progged to move through the area early on Tuesday. While the front
will be dry, it will serve to reduce temperatures closer to seasonal
normals for midweek.

A secondary shortwave rounding the back side of the trough will
move through the area late Tuesday night and early Wednesday, and
while the GFS and ECMWF both indicate some light QPF associated
with this feature, the trend has been for the precipitation to
shift further south and east. Have currently maintained the low
PoPs for this time frame, though confidence is beginning to wane
for measurable precipitation over southeastern zones next week.
Given the good agreement and model continuity displayed by the GFS
and ECMWF, have followed those modeled trends for the pattern
evolution next week. However, it does bear mentioning that the 00Z
and 06Z runs of the NAM, the first to capture the upcoming front,
indicate a slower FROPA, as well as the chance for some
precipitation along the front as it moves through the area Tuesday
morning into Tuesday afternoon. However, will wait for the NAM to
come more in line with other guidance before making any sweeping
changes. Otherwise, beyond midweek, another ridge looks to develop
over the southwestern CONUS, which would mean dry weather for the
end of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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626
FXUS64 KMAF 251135
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
635 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
At isolated locations the temp/dwpnt spreads are 0-1, but most
place area 2-4 with no signs of fog or low clouds attm. Sounding
data is inconsistent and based on trends light fog with brief
window of IFR CIGS seems appropriate mainly at MAF/HOB. Any
fog/CIGS that do form will burn off quickly with little in the way
of winds thru the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Another clear, cool morning is on tap today, though we do not
expect to see a repeat of the dense fog experienced the last two
mornings. Boundary layer moisture has decreased, and at this time,
temperature-dewpoint spreads across the Southeast New Mexico
Plains, Permian Basin, and Trans Pecos are still in the 4-7 degree
range. Some shallow, light, patchy fog may develop in the hours
around daybreak, but it should not cause the problems nor
visibility restrictions of the past two days, and should be quick
to burn off by mid-morning. Temperatures will rebound nicely today
after a cool morning, as high pressure and upper level ridging
continue to develop over New Mexico and West Texas. Highs today
should be at least a degree or two warmer than yesterday for all
locations, with low to middle 80s across higher elevations, upper
80s elsewhere, and near 90 degrees in the Trans Pecos and Rio
Grande Valley. The warm weather will stick around through Monday,
though Sunday looks to be the warmest day in the near-term, with
near record high temperatures currently forecast.

The GFS and ECMWF continue to be in good agreement regarding the
evolution of the weather pattern moving into next week, and thus,
not many changes were made to the going forecast through the
extended. The ridge of high pressure which will dominate sensible
weather across our area this weekend will gradually flatten and
shift to the east ahead of a developing Pacific trough.  This trough
will progress through the central CONUS, accompanied by a cold front
progged to move through the area early on Tuesday. While the front
will be dry, it will serve to reduce temperatures closer to seasonal
normals for midweek.

A secondary shortwave rounding the back side of the trough will
move through the area late Tuesday night and early Wednesday, and
while the GFS and ECMWF both indicate some light QPF associated
with this feature, the trend has been for the precipitation to
shift further south and east. Have currently maintained the low
PoPs for this time frame, though confidence is beginning to wane
for measurable precipitation over southeastern zones next week.
Given the good agreement and model continuity displayed by the GFS
and ECMWF, have followed those modeled trends for the pattern
evolution next week. However, it does bear mentioning that the 00Z
and 06Z runs of the NAM, the first to capture the upcoming front,
indicate a slower FROPA, as well as the chance for some
precipitation along the front as it moves through the area Tuesday
morning into Tuesday afternoon. However, will wait for the NAM to
come more in line with other guidance before making any sweeping
changes. Otherwise, beyond midweek, another ridge looks to develop
over the southwestern CONUS, which would mean dry weather for the
end of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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996
FXUS64 KMAF 250942
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
442 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Another clear, cool morning is on tap today, though we do not
expect to see a repeat of the dense fog experienced the last two
mornings. Boundary layer moisture has decreased, and at this time,
temperature-dewpoint spreads across the Southeast New Mexico
Plains, Permian Basin, and Trans Pecos are still in the 4-7 degree
range. Some shallow, light, patchy fog may develop in the hours
around daybreak, but it should not cause the problems nor
visibility restrictions of the past two days, and should be quick
to burn off by mid-morning. Temperatures will rebound nicely today
after a cool morning, as high pressure and upper level ridging
continue to develop over New Mexico and West Texas. Highs today
should be at least a degree or two warmer than yesterday for all
locations, with low to middle 80s across higher elevations, upper
80s elsewhere, and near 90 degrees in the Trans Pecos and Rio
Grande Valley. The warm weather will stick around through Monday,
though Sunday looks to be the warmest day in the near-term, with
near record high temperatures currently forecast.

The GFS and ECMWF continue to be in good agreement regarding the
evolution of the weather pattern moving into next week, and thus,
not many changes were made to the going forecast through the
extended. The ridge of high pressure which will dominate sensible
weather across our area this weekend will gradually flatten and
shift to the east ahead of a developing Pacific trough.  This trough
will progress through the central CONUS, accompanied by a cold front
progged to move through the area early on Tuesday. While the front
will be dry, it will serve to reduce temperatures closer to seasonal
normals for midweek.

A secondary shortwave rounding the back side of the trough will
move through the area late Tuesday night and early Wednesday, and
while the GFS and ECMWF both indicate some light QPF associated
with this feature, the trend has been for the precipitation to
shift further south and east. Have currently maintained the low
PoPs for this time frame, though confidence is beginning to wane
for measurable precipitation over southeastern zones next week.
Given the good agreement and model continuity displayed by the GFS
and ECMWF, have followed those modeled trends for the pattern
evolution next week. However, it does bear mentioning that the 00Z
and 06Z runs of the NAM, the first to capture the upcoming front,
indicate a slower FROPA, as well as the chance for some
precipitation along the front as it moves through the area Tuesday
morning into Tuesday afternoon. However, will wait for the NAM to
come more in line with other guidance before making any sweeping
changes. Otherwise, beyond midweek, another ridge looks to develop
over the southwestern CONUS, which would mean dry weather for the
end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  57  88  60  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              87  59  89  60  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                87  53  91  62  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  87  60  89  60  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  61  91  63  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          80  58  84  63  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   86  52  88  56  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   81  46  83  49  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    88  57  89  59  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  88  59  89  60  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    88  57  93  59  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/84

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561
FXUS64 KMAF 250530
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1230 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main decision for tonight is whether there will be IFR fog again
this morning. Surface data indicates that dwpnts are lower (T/Td
spreads are greater) and there is less dew now than at this time
last night. HRRR model does show high RH/s toward 12Z, but not as
impressive as last nights. NAM BUFR soundings are more supportive
of IFR CIGS around 003FT, possibly as early as 10Z. As such have
opted to play the CIG card moreso than FG. Mstr will burn of quickly
before 15Z with winds on the light side.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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441
FXUS64 KMAF 250220
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
920 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery shows clear skies under an upper level ridge
centered over West Texas tonight. Sfc obs show winds have
decoupled, and w/no LLJ expected overnight, another bout of fog
seems likely. However, latest NAM suggests temps can be lowered a
bit, especially out west. We`ll do a quick update for this, and
adjust other parameters as necessary.  Updates out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Today began similar to yesterday with fog thickening this morning
and bringing visibilities down to a quarter mile or less at several
locations.  The fog dissipated around mid morning leaving clear
skies, except for a few cumulus in the Davis/Glass Mountains.  With
the quick burn off of fog, temps are rising quicker than yesterday.
Since the boundary layer will be a little drier from above normal
temperatures this afternoon, there will be a little less moisture
tomorrow morning, but still patchy fog looks possible.

The upper ridge continues to build across Mexico and West Texas.
This should result in above normal temps through the weekend.  Some
areas along the Upper Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley may see
lower to mid 90s on Sunday and Monday.  The ridge will then start to
flatten out with the approach of a trough that will swing across the
Central US.  The associated cold front will move into the area
Tuesday and knock temps to near, or below, normal Tuesday afternoon,
with seasonal temps expected areawide Wednesday.  The lack of
moisture over the area as the front passes does not bode well for
showers.  There is a secondary shortwave that looks to pass over the
area and with some increased moisture that warrants increasing PoPs
along the Lower Trans Pecos and parts of the Davis Mountains.  Will
still leave out any mention of showers with not a lot of confidence
several days out. Beyond Thursday it looks like another ridge will
start to build across the Southwest US and move our way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  87  58  87  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              58  88  60  88  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  87  50  90  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  61  88  60  88  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  88  61  91  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  84  54  84  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   53  86  49  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   44  82  48  82  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  87  57  88  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  88  59  88  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    54  88  57  92  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44

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998
FXUS64 KMAF 242326
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with clear skies and light winds are expected
for much of the TAF period. The exception will be from 10z to 15z
Saturday where a moist surface layer and light wind support TEMPO
LIFR conditions at most terminals except KFST and KCNM.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Today began similar to yesterday with fog thickening this morning
and bringing visibilities down to a quarter mile or less at several
locations.  The fog dissipated around mid morning leaving clear
skies, except for a few cumulus in the Davis/Glass Mountains.  With
the quick burn off of fog, temps are rising quicker than yesterday.
Since the boundary layer will be a little drier from above normal
temperatures this afternoon, there will be a little less moisture
tomorrow morning, but still patchy fog looks possible.

The upper ridge continues to build across Mexico and West Texas.
This should result in above normal temps through the weekend.  Some
areas along the Upper Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley may see
lower to mid 90s on Sunday and Monday.  The ridge will then start to
flatten out with the approach of a trough that will swing across the
Central US.  The associated cold front will move into the area
Tuesday and knock temps to near, or below, normal Tuesday afternoon,
with seasonal temps expected areawide Wednesday.  The lack of
moisture over the area as the front passes does not bode well for
showers.  There is a secondary shortwave that looks to pass over the
area and with some increased moisture that warrants increasing PoPs
along the Lower Trans Pecos and parts of the Davis Mountains.  Will
still leave out any mention of showers with not a lot of confidence
several days out. Beyond Thursday it looks like another ridge will
start to build across the Southwest US and move our way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  87  58  87  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              56  88  60  88  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  87  50  90  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  59  88  60  88  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  88  61  91  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  84  54  84  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   53  86  49  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   51  82  48  82  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  87  57  88  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  88  59  88  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    55  88  57  92  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/06

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767
FXUS64 KMAF 241908
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
208 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today began similar to yesterday with fog thickening this morning
and bringing visibilities down to a quarter mile or less at several
locations.  The fog dissipated around mid morning leaving clear
skies, except for a few cumulus in the Davis/Glass Mountains.  With
the quick burn off of fog, temps are rising quicker than yesterday.
Since the boundary layer will be a little drier from above normal
temperatures this afternoon, there will be a little less moisture
tomorrow morning, but still patchy fog looks possible.

The upper ridge continues to build across Mexico and West Texas.
This should result in above normal temps through the weekend.  Some
areas along the Upper Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley may see
lower to mid 90s on Sunday and Monday.  The ridge will then start to
flatten out with the approach of a trough that will swing across the
Central US.  The associated cold front will move into the area
Tuesday and knock temps to near, or below, normal Tuesday afternoon,
with seasonal temps expected areawide Wednesday.  The lack of
moisture over the area as the front passes does not bode well for
showers.  There is a secondary shortwave that looks to pass over the
area and with some increased moisture that warrants increasing PoPs
along the Lower Trans Pecos and parts of the Davis Mountains.  Will
still leave out any mention of showers with not a lot of confidence
several days out. Beyond Thursday it looks like another ridge will
start to build across the Southwest US and move our way.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  87  58  87  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              56  88  60  88  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  87  50  90  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  59  88  60  88  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  88  61  91  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  84  54  84  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   53  86  49  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   51  82  48  82  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  87  57  88  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  88  59  88  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    55  88  57  92  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/06

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558
FXUS64 KMAF 241710
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and tonight across
southeast New Mexico and west Texas.  However, fog could form again
late tonight.  Will not include a reduction in visibility at this
time since any fog development will occur near the end of the
forecast period.  67

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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660
FXUS64 KMAF 241549
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1049 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to cancel the Dense Fog Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Fog was dissipating rapidly across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas as of 24/1540Z.  Although the visibility was less than 1 mile
at Pecos and Snyder at this time, rapid improvement will occur by
24/16Z.  Therefore, will cancel the rest of the Dense Fog Advisory.
The forecast looks good through the rest of the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast for Fog Advisory.

DISCUSSION...
Visibilities beginning to fall across the area as fog thickens.
Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the Permian Basin... Trans
Pecos... and Southeast New Mexico.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Fog increasing across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin with vsbys
expected to fall to LIFR at HOB... INK... and PEQ... and IFR at
MAF. Not much stratus expected. By late morning most of the fog
should be gone with conditions improving to VFR areawide. Wind
will be southerly at 10kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clear skies and light winds have once again provided great
conditions for radiation fog to develop across parts of the area.
Given boundary layer moisture this morning is less than 24 hours
ago, widespread dense fog is not expected, though motorists and
others traveling this morning should be prepared for patchy fog that
could cause temporary visibility restrictions.

Upper ridging and high pressure will continue to build across the
region today, allowing for temperatures to rise to the middle 80s
across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon, with
upper 70s expected over the Marfa Plateau and Guadalupe Mountains.
The warming trend will continue through the weekend, with near
record high temperatures possible on Sunday, with highs Sunday
currently forecast to be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with
the exception of the Southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos, and
Rio Grande Valley where low to possibly middle 90s are not out of
the question. The forecast high for Midland Sunday is 89 degrees,
one degree shy of the record of 90 set in 1950.

The aforementioned  upper level ridge will begin to flatten out
Sunday into Monday as the next Pacific trough works its way
eastward. Recent model runs have come into better agreement
regarding the trough passage early next week, as well as the
accompanying cold front which is expected to move through the area
early on Tuesday. Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of the
front, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage, though will serve
to drop temperatures into the 70s across Southeast New Mexico and
West Texas for midweek. Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a
secondary shortwave rounding the back side of the trough late
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with both models generating light
QPF over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains in southeasterly
return flow.  Thus, have maintained the low PoPs over this area,
though have still held off on mention of showers for the time being,
given how much can change between now and then.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


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240
FXUS64 KMAF 241154
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
654 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast for Fog Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Visibilities beginning to fall across the area as fog thickens.
Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the Permian Basin... Trans
Pecos... and Southeast New Mexico.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Fog increasing across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin with vsbys
expected to fall to LIFR at HOB... INK... and PEQ... and IFR at
MAF. Not much stratus expected. By late morning most of the fog
should be gone with conditions improving to VFR areawide. Wind
will be southerly at 10kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clear skies and light winds have once again provided great
conditions for radiation fog to develop across parts of the area.
Given boundary layer moisture this morning is less than 24 hours
ago, widespread dense fog is not expected, though motorists and
others traveling this morning should be prepared for patchy fog that
could cause temporary visibility restrictions.

Upper ridging and high pressure will continue to build across the
region today, allowing for temperatures to rise to the middle 80s
across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon, with
upper 70s expected over the Marfa Plateau and Guadalupe Mountains.
The warming trend will continue through the weekend, with near
record high temperatures possible on Sunday, with highs Sunday
currently forecast to be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with
the exception of the Southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos, and
Rio Grande Valley where low to possibly middle 90s are not out of
the question. The forecast high for Midland Sunday is 89 degrees,
one degree shy of the record of 90 set in 1950.

The aforementioned  upper level ridge will begin to flatten out
Sunday into Monday as the next Pacific trough works its way
eastward. Recent model runs have come into better agreement
regarding the trough passage early next week, as well as the
accompanying cold front which is expected to move through the area
early on Tuesday. Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of the
front, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage, though will serve
to drop temperatures into the 70s across Southeast New Mexico and
West Texas for midweek. Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a
secondary shortwave rounding the back side of the trough late
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with both models generating light
QPF over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains in southeasterly
return flow.  Thus, have maintained the low PoPs over this area,
though have still held off on mention of showers for the time being,
given how much can change between now and then.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  56  85  58  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              85  59  86  60  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                84  54  87  57  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  85  59  87  60  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  60  88  61  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  59  81  62  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   84  54  86  55  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   79  46  80  48  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  58  86  57  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  85  59  86  59  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    88  57  91  57  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM MDT this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CDT this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

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723
FXUS64 KMAF 241120
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Fog increasing across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin with vsbys
expected to fall to LIFR at HOB... INK... and PEQ... and IFR at
MAF. Not much stratus expected. By late morning most of the fog
should be gone with conditions improving to VFR areawide. Wind
will be southerly at 10kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clear skies and light winds have once again provided great
conditions for radiation fog to develop across parts of the area.
Given boundary layer moisture this morning is less than 24 hours
ago, widespread dense fog is not expected, though motorists and
others traveling this morning should be prepared for patchy fog that
could cause temporary visibility restrictions.

Upper ridging and high pressure will continue to build across the
region today, allowing for temperatures to rise to the middle 80s
across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon, with
upper 70s expected over the Marfa Plateau and Guadalupe Mountains.
The warming trend will continue through the weekend, with near
record high temperatures possible on Sunday, with highs Sunday
currently forecast to be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with
the exception of the Southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos, and
Rio Grande Valley where low to possibly middle 90s are not out of
the question. The forecast high for Midland Sunday is 89 degrees,
one degree shy of the record of 90 set in 1950.

The aforementioned  upper level ridge will begin to flatten out
Sunday into Monday as the next Pacific trough works its way
eastward. Recent model runs have come into better agreement
regarding the trough passage early next week, as well as the
accompanying cold front which is expected to move through the area
early on Tuesday. Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of the
front, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage, though will serve
to drop temperatures into the 70s across Southeast New Mexico and
West Texas for midweek. Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a
secondary shortwave rounding the back side of the trough late
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with both models generating light
QPF over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains in southeasterly
return flow.  Thus, have maintained the low PoPs over this area,
though have still held off on mention of showers for the time being,
given how much can change between now and then.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland

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