410
FXUS64 KMAF 242302
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY, HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LOOKING RATHER SPARSE, IF NOT UNLIKELY, AT ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE POISED TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD KEEP
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15KT UNTIL WELL INTO THE NIGHT WHEN THE
GRADIENT SLACKENS, AND LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ON THESE WINDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW VFR OR MVFR
CEILINGS OVER MOST TAF SITES AFTER 25/09Z. ANY LOWER CLOUDS THAT
FORM SHOULD SCATTER OUT NEAR 25/15Z. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
A COOL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AIDED BY LAST
NIGHTS CONVECTION SO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. KEPT POPS HIGHEST IN EAST WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS GREATEST DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...HOWEVER
THERE IS NO SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT SO MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON WHERE TS
WILL DEVELOP. CAPES WILL BE 1-2KJ/KG BUT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 15-25KTS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE TYPE WITH LOW SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL SO
THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS STRONG
WINDS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BIG BEND
TONIGHT PERHAPS EXTENDING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
A PERSISTENT WEST COAST TROUGH WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW KEEPING THE DRYLINE PULLED BACK AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY SO KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY UNTIL THEN. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY THE WEST COAST TROUGH FINALLY
MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS ACTIVATING THE DRYLINE. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW
FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PULLED...SO WILL GO WITH A
WEAKER SOLUTION AND KEEP THE POPS IN THE EAST FOR NOW. A DEEPER
ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTION MAY BRING CONVECTION FURTHER WEST INTO
SE NM AND THE BIG BEND.
HENNIG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 66 85 66 92 / 30 20 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 85 67 91 / 40 20 20 10
CARLSBAD NM 66 95 64 100 / 20 20 10 0
DRYDEN TX 69 90 68 96 / 30 20 20 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 67 84 67 92 / 30 20 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 61 84 61 88 / 20 20 10 0
HOBBS NM 64 87 62 94 / 20 20 10 0
MARFA TX 60 87 58 88 / 30 20 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 67 84 68 91 / 30 20 10 10
ODESSA TX 68 85 67 91 / 30 20 10 0
WINK TX 69 88 67 94 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/10
