Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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995
FXUS64 KMAF 212350
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
650 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show convection on the wane, w/WV imagery placing the
core of the upper trough near KFST. MPE totals for the past 12 hrs
show highest precip amts south of KFST, where a line of convection
is moving east. Saturated soils and FFMP suggest isolated areas
may see minor flooding over the next few hours...especially NE
zones as the upper trough continues moving NE...but not enough to
extend the watch. Therefore, the Flash Flood Watch will be allowed
to bite the dust at 00Z. We`ll freshen up the grids to update
other parameters as necessary, based on current obs and latest
forecast data. Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
An upper low was located over Northern Mexico this morning lifting
northeast across the area this afternoon.  Behind this low will
have weak ridging aloft resulting in mild wx through most of the
week.  However by Thursday another trough will move down the West
Coast and may develop into a cut off low on Friday.  When this low
finally starts to move east it could bring additional rain to the
area.

Today widespread light to moderate rain has moved up across the
area.  Ground reports of a 1/3 to a 1/2 inch of rain are common with
local amounts higher.  The heaviest rain again today has been over
Pecos Co but the main area of rain is lifting NE into parts of the
region that have not had much rain the past few days.  A flash flood
watch remains in effect until 00z for the southern 2/3rd of the
region... plan on letting it continue until it expires.  Can expect
wrap around precip to move east across the area tonight.  The
Northeast Permian Basin will have best chance of additional rainfall
tonight and models develop the most qpf in that area.  Will have
highest pops NE with chances decreasing to the west.  Next few days
should be dry.

Temps should stay elevated tonight due to the moist airmass and
abundant cloud cover.  Highs will be warmer on Sunday and back into
the 70s.  Monday will be unusually warm as a W/SW wind kicks in as a
surface low sets up over the Panhandle and a trough extends down
across the area.  Guidance warms area locations into the 80s and
even lower 90s Monday... will go several degrees under guidance due
to recent rain but will be a warm day.  Tuesday and Wednesday will
be warm also but a front is expected to move through late Wednesday
so should be cooler on Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 45  75  47  82  /  30  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              47  78  51  84  /  50  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                42  80  45  85  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  51  80  53  85  /  40   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           48  79  52  85  /  40  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          45  73  51  76  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   42  77  45  82  /  20   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   38  75  37  78  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    46  76  49  83  /  40  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  46  76  48  82  /  30  10   0   0
WINK TX                    44  79  45  85  /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Ector...Glasscock...Loving...Marfa Plateau...
     Midland...Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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