Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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973
FXUS64 KMAF 280513
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1213 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds are expected to remain light throughout the period with
primarily southeast winds Tuesday afternoon. Some areas may
briefly experience low ceilings overnight otherwise VFR conditions
are expected to prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  88  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       67  90  68  93 /  50  30  10  10
Dryden                         73  94  73  95 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  69  89  69  91 /  30  20  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 63  81  65  86 /  40  40  10  10
Hobbs                          65  88  66  91 /  20  20  10  10
Marfa                          63  82  62  84 /  50  50  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           69  91  69  93 /  20  20  10  10
Odessa                         69  90  70  92 /  20  20  10  10
Wink                           69  90  69  93 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
566
FXUS64 KMAF 272320
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
620 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers remain across the area but the coverage is too
sparse to place in the TAFs. Southeast winds and VFR conditions
will hold through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  88  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       67  90  68  93 /  50  30  10  10
Dryden                         73  94  73  95 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  69  89  69  91 /  30  20  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 63  81  65  86 /  40  40  10  10
Hobbs                          65  88  66  91 /  20  20  10  10
Marfa                          63  82  62  84 /  50  50  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           69  91  69  93 /  20  20  10  10
Odessa                         69  90  70  92 /  20  20  10  10
Wink                           69  90  69  93 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
456
FXUS64 KMAF 271857
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
157 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain continues across parts of the area this afternoon as a
slow moving upper low shifts west of the Pecos River. Several
inches of rain fell across parts of Terrell county this morning
and some roads are impassable or washed out. PWATs near and east
of the low are about 1.5 to 1.8 inches so heavy rain and some
flooding will be a concern into tonight, especially along and west
of the Pecos River. The low weakens and moves into northern Mexico
tomorrow as an upper ridge attempts to build in from the
northwest. Increasing subsidence will cause a quick decrease in
precip coverage areawide by midweek, but isolated convection still
cannot be ruled out. The center of the ridge moves southeast
toward South Texas this weekend and may allow for some convection
across the mountains. Temperatures will climb back to normal by
midweek as moisture decreases somewhat. Guidance may be a little
high due to all the rain over the past few days so will stay on
the low side keeping highs generally below 100 for much of the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  88  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       67  90  68  93 /  50  30  10  10
Dryden                         73  94  73  95 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  69  89  69  91 /  30  20  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 63  81  65  86 /  40  40  10  10
Hobbs                          65  88  66  91 /  20  20  10  10
Marfa                          63  82  62  84 /  50  50  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           69  91  69  93 /  20  20  10  10
Odessa                         69  90  70  92 /  20  20  10  10
Wink                           69  90  69  93 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
534
FXUS64 KMAF 271636
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1136 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings have lifted somewhat with slowly warming temperatures,
so expect VFR conditions at most area terminals through tonight.
There will be a chance of showers, and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm or two, so will include RA with lower ceilings at most,
if not all, terminals through the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 935 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

Sending a forecast update this morning to increase PoPs areawide
as the upper low and daytime heating continue to generate
widespread showers and thunderstorms. With PWATs over 1.5 inches,
some of these storms will have the potential to produce 2-3
inches of rain in an hour, so added heavy rain as well. Finally,
high temperatures were lowered several degrees due to the expected
cloud cover and rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  69  92  71 /  40  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       88  67  93  68 /  30  20  10  10
Dryden                         87  72  96  75 /  40  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  85  69  93  70 /  70  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 79  62  84  65 /  30  30  20  10
Hobbs                          84  66  88  67 /  40  10  10  10
Marfa                          78  60  84  60 /  60  40  30  10
Midland Intl Airport           83  69  93  70 /  60  10  10  10
Odessa                         83  70  92  70 /  70  10  10  10
Wink                           83  68  95  71 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
680
FXUS64 KMAF 271435
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
935 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...

Sending a forecast update this morning to increase PoPs areawide
as the upper low and daytime heating continue to generate
widespread showers and thunderstorms. With PWATs over 1.5 inches,
some of these storms will have the potential to produce 2-3
inches of rain in an hour, so added heavy rain as well. Finally,
high temperatures were lowered several degrees due to the expected
cloud cover and rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  69  92  71 /  40  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       88  67  93  68 /  30  20  10  10
Dryden                         87  72  96  75 /  40  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  85  69  93  70 /  70  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 79  62  84  65 /  30  30  20  10
Hobbs                          84  66  88  67 /  40  10  10  10
Marfa                          78  60  84  60 /  60  40  30  10
Midland Intl Airport           83  69  93  70 /  60  10  10  10
Odessa                         83  70  92  70 /  70  10  10  10
Wink                           83  68  95  71 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
957
FXUS64 KMAF 271127
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs this
morning and the potential for thunderstorms at different periods
throughout the TAF period. Currently have some light to moderate
showers across the southern Permian Basin early this morning with
some areas of MVFR cigs hanging around. It is possible that this
activity will intensify slightly and shift west throughout the day
but confidence is fairly low in this scenario at this time so will
not include mention of TSRA at any terminals and make adjustment
later if needed. Otherwise, MVFR cigs are expected to lift by mid
morning and all terminals will return to VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Sub tropical ridge stretches from the Pacific to the Atlantic this
morning and is centered over the 4 corners region.  Upper low over
the region that brought heavy rain to some parts of the area
yesterday will continue to slowly drift west today.  An east coast
trough is expected to increase over the Eastern US but the ridge
will remain entrenched over the west.

Rain and clouds kept temperatures well down yesterday with highs
mainly in the 80s.  Temperatures should be warmer today and slowly
increase each day rising to the upper 90s by late in the week.  Can
still see readings at or above 100 along the Rio Grande each day.

Believe the upper low centered over Permian Basin as of 08z.  As of
early morning still have some heavy showers and a few thunderstorms
over the southern Permian Basin slowly drifting southward across the
Pecos River.  MAF reported 0.35 inch of rain yesterday which puts it
at nearly an inch above normal YTD.  Have the chance for additional
rain today mainly over/near the higher elevations.  With PW in the
1.4 to 1.6 range locally heavy rain will be the main concern... will
continue to highlight in the HWO.  By Tuesday most of the precip
will have shifted west with the mountains again favored.  After that
things begin to dry out with only some rain around the edges of the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  69  92  71 /  20  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       87  67  93  68 /  40  20  10  10
Dryden                         93  72  96  75 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  89  69  93  70 /  30  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  62  84  65 /  50  30  20  10
Hobbs                          86  66  88  67 /  40  10  10  10
Marfa                          80  60  84  60 /  50  40  30  10
Midland Intl Airport           90  69  93  70 /  30  10  10  10
Odessa                         90  70  92  70 /  30  10  10  10
Wink                           91  68  95  71 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
732
FXUS64 KMAF 270822
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
322 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Sub tropical ridge stretches from the Pacific to the Atlantic this
morning and is centered over the 4 corners region.  Upper low over
the region that brought heavy rain to some parts of the area
yesterday will continue to slowly drift west today.  An east coast
trough is expected to increase over the Eastern US but the ridge
will remain entrenched over the west.

Rain and clouds kept temperatures well down yesterday with highs
mainly in the 80s.  Temperatures should be warmer today and slowly
increase each day rising to the upper 90s by late in the week.  Can
still see readings at or above 100 along the Rio Grande each day.

Believe the upper low centered over Permian Basin as of 08z.  As of
early morning still have some heavy showers and a few thunderstorms
over the southern Permian Basin slowly drifting southward across the
Pecos River.  MAF reported 0.35 inch of rain yesterday which puts it
at nearly an inch above normal YTD.  Have the chance for additional
rain today mainly over/near the higher elevations.  With PW in the
1.4 to 1.6 range locally heavy rain will be the main concern... will
continue to highlight in the HWO.  By Tuesday most of the precip
will have shifted west with the mountains again favored.  After that
things begin to dry out with only some rain around the edges of the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  69  92  71 /  20  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       87  67  93  68 /  40  20  10  10
Dryden                         93  72  96  75 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  89  69  93  70 /  30  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  62  84  65 /  50  30  20  10
Hobbs                          86  66  88  67 /  40  10  10  10
Marfa                          80  60  84  60 /  50  40  30  10
Midland Intl Airport           90  69  93  70 /  30  10  10  10
Odessa                         90  70  92  70 /  30  10  10  10
Wink                           91  68  95  71 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
434
FXUS64 KMAF 270517
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1217 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is the potential for
thunderstorms at different periods throughout the TAF period.
Currently have showers near MAF and a few isolated thunderstorms
farther south of the terminal. Not expecting much more activity than
what is already out there so didn`t include mention in the TAFs.
Will continue to monitor trends and amend if needed. Thunderstorm
chances will increase during the day but similar to Sunday, not
exactly clear on when and where this activity will develop. Will
keep mention out of the TAFs for now and make adjustments later if
needed.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the TUTT centered just SW of KMAF, further east
than models forecast 24 hours ago.  Today, most models place the
TUTT too far east, w/some, like the GFS, already in major
disagreement w/the current position.  Corresponding QPF fields are
all over the map, as well. Although models don`t capture this well,
all tend to take the TUTT back east into the Hill Country, then
south into Mexico over the next 36-48 hours.  Meanwhile, out west,
the usual daytime heating/destabilization is taking place over the
higher terrain, w/upslope flow spawning afternoon convection.
Therefore, all areas overnight stand a good chance at getting wet.
We`ll concentrate higher POPs over the NE overnight coincident w/the
TUTT, then shift them west Monday as the TUTT moves east.  As the
TUTT heads south, this will allow the upper ridge covering the srn
CONUS to center/strengthen over the Four Corners area into the
extended.  This will allow the low-lvl theta-e ridge to remain out
west for the next couple of days, promoting convection over the
higher terrain each day. Tuesday, a shortwave will move into central
Texas, and may clip the NE zones.  After that, the ridge is forecast
to sink south a bit, and the focus for convection in the extended
will shift to the nrn zones as shortwaves move thru the top of the
ridge.

For temps, thicknesses invof the TUTT will keep things at or below
normal over the first part of the week, before things ramp up again
as the upper ridge builds NW.  However, w/the ridge staying to the
west as far as forecast, most areas should avoid the triple digits.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  94  73  92 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       68  94  70  95 /  20  10  10  10
Dryden                         71  96  76  96 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  68  95  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 64  86  67  88 /  30  20  10  10
Hobbs                          68  91  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          61  84  61  87 /  20  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           71  95  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         72  94  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           70  97  72  95 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72/
684
FXUS64 KMAF 262328
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered SHRA and TS will continue, diminishing overnight before
increasing again around 12Z. Will be conservative with TS in the
TAFs and amend as necessary as timing any storm at a terminal will
be very difficult. VFR conditions should remain through the TAF
period except perhaps briefly MVFR in passing showers.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the TUTT centered just SW of KMAF, further east
than models forecast 24 hours ago.  Today, most models place the
TUTT too far east, w/some, like the GFS, already in major
disagreement w/the current position.  Corresponding QPF fields are
all over the map, as well. Although models don`t capture this well,
all tend to take the TUTT back east into the Hill Country, then
south into Mexico over the next 36-48 hours.  Meanwhile, out west,
the usual daytime heating/destabilization is taking place over the
higher terrain, w/upslope flow spawning afternoon convection.
Therefore, all areas overnight stand a good chance at getting wet.
We`ll concentrate higher POPs over the NE overnight coincident w/the
TUTT, then shift them west Monday as the TUTT moves east.  As the
TUTT heads south, this will allow the upper ridge covering the srn
CONUS to center/strengthen over the Four Corners area into the
extended.  This will allow the low-lvl theta-e ridge to remain out
west for the next couple of days, promoting convection over the
higher terrain each day. Tuesday, a shortwave will move into central
Texas, and may clip the NE zones.  After that, the ridge is forecast
to sink south a bit, and the focus for convection in the extended
will shift to the nrn zones as shortwaves move thru the top of the
ridge.

For temps, thicknesses invof the TUTT will keep things at or below
normal over the first part of the week, before things ramp up again
as the upper ridge builds NW.  However, w/the ridge staying to the
west as far as forecast, most areas should avoid the triple digits.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  92  71  94 /  40  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       69  88  68  94 /  40  40  20  10
Dryden                         73  95  71  96 /  30  20   0  10
Fort Stockton                  71  92  68  95 /  30  30  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 65  82  64  86 /  40  50  30  20
Hobbs                          67  86  68  91 /  50  40  10  10
Marfa                          66  81  61  84 /  40  50  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           69  92  71  95 /  50  30  10  10
Odessa                         69  92  72  94 /  50  30  10  10
Wink                           70  94  70  97 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
137
FXUS64 KMAF 261945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the TUTT centered just SW of KMAF, further east
than models forecast 24 hours ago.  Today, most models place the
TUTT too far east, w/some, like the GFS, already in major
disagreement w/the current position.  Corresponding QPF fields are
all over the map, as well. Although models don`t capture this well,
all tend to take the TUTT back east into the Hill Country, then
south into Mexico over the next 36-48 hours.  Meanwhile, out west,
the usual daytime heating/destabilization is taking place over the
higher terrain, w/upslope flow spawning afternoon convection.
Therefore, all areas overnight stand a good chance at getting wet.
We`ll concentrate higher POPs over the NE overnight coincident w/the
TUTT, then shift them west Monday as the TUTT moves east.  As the
TUTT heads south, this will allow the upper ridge covering the srn
CONUS to center/strengthen over the Four Corners area into the
extended.  This will allow the low-lvl theta-e ridge to remain out
west for the next couple of days, promoting convection over the
higher terrain each day. Tuesday, a shortwave will move into central
Texas, and may clip the NE zones.  After that, the ridge is forecast
to sink south a bit, and the focus for convection in the extended
will shift to the nrn zones as shortwaves move thru the top of the
ridge.

For temps, thicknesses invof the TUTT will keep things at or below
normal over the first part of the week, before things ramp up again
as the upper ridge builds NW.  However, w/the ridge staying to the
west as far as forecast, most areas should avoid the triple digits.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  92  71  94 /  40  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       69  88  68  94 /  40  40  20  10
Dryden                         73  95  71  96 /  30  20   0  10
Fort Stockton                  71  92  68  95 /  30  30  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 65  82  64  86 /  40  50  30  20
Hobbs                          67  86  68  91 /  50  40  10  10
Marfa                          66  81  61  84 /  40  50  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           69  92  71  95 /  50  30  10  10
Odessa                         69  92  72  94 /  50  30  10  10
Wink                           70  94  70  97 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/44
267
FXUS64 KMAF 261643
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1143 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...

Update to adjust afternoon high temperatures and winds. The latest
Aviation Discussion is also below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A Tutt low over the region will meander over the region through
the day today. Expect thunderstorms to become more common along
and east of the upper low axis, but also out west over the higher
terrain where good heating is ongoing to fuel thunderstorm
development within low level easterly upslope flow regime.
Some of the storms could produce strong winds, especially over the
heated higher terrain later this afternoon.  However heavy
rainfall, if not localized flash flooding, will be a concern due
to PWats near 1.5 inches and fairly slow moving thunderstorms
which could produce affect some areas more than once.  Have not
adjusted Pops, but have lowered afternoon high temperatures,
especially over the Permian Basin.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread through this
afternoon, so have added TSRA to all area terminals generally
between 26/21Z and 27/03Z.  Gusty winds may occur with storms,
especially at KCNM, KPEQ, KINK and KFST where better heating is
expected to occur this afternoon.  Thunderstorms could last well
into the night, so additional TSRA may need to be added to some
terminals.  Ceilings and visibility could dip to MVFR with any
storms, but otherwise expect VFR conditions to prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     84  69  92  69 /  30  30  10  10
Carlsbad                       91  70  92  69 /  30  40  30  10
Dryden                         90  75  92  74 /  30  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  90  71  92  70 /  30  30  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 85  65  83  64 /  30  40  30  10
Hobbs                          87  67  90  66 /  30  40  30  10
Marfa                          88  62  85  61 /  40  30  40  10
Midland Intl Airport           87  70  93  70 /  30  40  10   0
Odessa                         88  71  93  71 /  30  40  20   0
Wink                           93  71  94  70 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
793
FXUS64 KMAF 261116
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concerns for the next 24 hours is the potential
for low clouds early this morning and thunderstorms at different
periods throughout the day today. Currently have persistent SE
winds across most locations with some weak showers and
thunderstorms SW of FST near the Davis Mountains. Looking at
current satellite data, it looks like the low clouds are moving NW
toward FST and MAF but still difficult to see due to extensive
mid/high level cloud shield across the area. Don`t think they`ll
reach FST but will affect MAF shortly. Will continue to monitor
trends and amend if needed. Thunderstorm chances will increase
during the day however not exactly clear on when and where this
activity will develop but think best chances for later this
morning or early afternoon will be at MAF. Will keep mention out
of the TAFs for now and make adjustments later if needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge centered over the Arklatx this morning will shift
west becoming centered over the 4 corners region Monday and remain
over the west the rest of the week. An upper low wandering up
from Mexico today and across the region will result in increased
rain chances today into Monday. In the extended temperatures will
increase and precip chances will decrease.

Presidio and Rio Grande Village continue to be the hot locations
with 101 and 106 degrees on Saturday.  It should be noticeably
cooler today as 850mb temps cool and increased cloud cover limits
insulation. Stayed to the warm side of guidance... if it turns
out a little cooler then it will be pleasant. Temperatures climb
to above normal by late in the week.

This morning Have some storms moving up from Mexico across Del Rio
with some showers streaming across the northern edge of the CWA.
SE/upslope flow will help keep lower levels moist and help storms
develop over the higher elevations.  Best chance of rain for the
plains will be with the upper low.  Guidance pops have really come
up as models bring the low up into the Permian Basin... have
increased pops today through Monday.  Locally heavy rain will be the
main concern with these storms as MAF 00z sounding had PW of 1.2
inches with model soundings pushing it over 1.6 inches tonight.
By Monday the best precip chances should be over the higher
elevations with only a slight chance for the plains with precip only
skirting the area Monday night.  Only random low probability of
storms the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  69  92  69 /  30  30  10  10
Carlsbad                       93  70  92  69 /  30  40  30  10
Dryden                         96  75  92  74 /  30  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  92  71  92  70 /  30  30  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 85  65  83  64 /  30  40  30  10
Hobbs                          89  67  90  66 /  30  40  30  10
Marfa                          86  62  85  61 /  40  30  40  10
Midland Intl Airport           91  70  93  70 /  30  40  10   0
Odessa                         93  71  93  71 /  30  40  20   0
Wink                           94  71  94  70 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
340
FXUS64 KMAF 260839
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
339 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge centered over the Arklatx this morning will shift
west becoming centered over the 4 corners region Monday and remain
over the west the rest of the week. An upper low wandering up
from Mexico today and across the region will result in increased
rain chances today into Monday. In the extended temperatures will
increase and precip chances will decrease.

Presidio and Rio Grande Village continue to be the hot locations
with 101 and 106 degrees on Saturday.  It should be noticeably
cooler today as 850mb temps cool and increased cloud cover limits
insolation.  Stayed to the warm side of guidance... if it turns out
a little cooler then it will be pleasant.  Temperatures climb to
above normal by late in the week.

This morning Have some storms moving up from Mexico across Del Rio
with some showers streaming across the northern edge of the CWA.
SE/upslope flow will help keep lower levels moist and help storms
develop over the higher elevations.  Best chance of rain for the
plains will be with the upper low.  Guidance pops have really come
up as models bring the low up into the Permian Basin... have
increased pops today through Monday.  Locally heavy rain will be the
main concern with these storms as MAF 00z sounding had PW of 1.2
inches with model soundings pushing it over 1.6 inches tonight.
By Monday the best precip chances should be over the higher
elevations with only a slight chance for the plains with precip only
skirting the area Monday night.  Only random low probability of
storms the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  69  92  69 /  30  30  10  10
Carlsbad                       93  70  92  69 /  30  40  30  10
Dryden                         96  75  92  74 /  30  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  92  71  92  70 /  30  30  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 85  65  83  64 /  30  40  30  10
Hobbs                          89  67  90  66 /  30  40  30  10
Marfa                          86  62  85  61 /  40  30  40  10
Midland Intl Airport           91  70  93  70 /  30  40  10   0
Odessa                         93  71  93  71 /  30  40  20   0
Wink                           94  71  94  70 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
240
FXUS64 KMAF 260530
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1230 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concerns for the next 24 hours is the potential
for low clouds early morning and thunderstorms at different periods
through Sunday. Currently have persistent SE winds across most
locations with some light rain showing up on radar just east of HOB.
Hard to tell where the low clouds are developing tonight given the
extensive mid/high level cloud shield across the area. For now,
kept mention of MVFR at MAF at around 09Z and added mention of low
cigs at HOB around 11Z. Will continue to monitor trends and amend
if needed. Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday during the
day however not exactly clear on when and where this activity will
develop so will keep mention out of the TAFs for now and make
adjustments later if needed.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the
upper ridge extending across the srn CONUS, and forecast to remain
anchored in place over the next week.  The TUTT is now centered SE
of the Big Bend Area...further east than all the models depict.
Precip on the eastern side of the TUTT is way out in central Texas,
and w/the TUTT forecast to curve NE into central Texas over the next
couple of days, it appears this feature will yield little in the way
of precipitation for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Instead,
favored areas will remain over the western mtns in upslope return
flow.  Thus, higher POPs will remain over the western half of the FA.

Over the next few days, the TUTT is forecast to arc into central
Texas, then dive south deep into Mexico.  Although little rain is
expected from this, increased cloud cover and decreased thicknesses
should keep temps at or below normal thru midweek.  As the TUTT
moves further south, the upper ridge will shift to the 4 Corners,
allowing the thermal ridge to strengthen.  This will allow temps to
climb above-normal Thursday onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  93  69  90 /  20  10   0  20
Carlsbad                       70  94  67  93 /  30  20  10  10
Dryden                         74  93  71  95 /  20  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  71  93  67  92 /  20  20   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 65  86  64  85 /  30  30  10  10
Hobbs                          66  91  67  90 /  30  20  10  20
Marfa                          62  87  61  85 /  30  40  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           70  94  70  93 /  20  10   0  10
Odessa                         71  94  71  92 /  20  20   0  10
Wink                           71  95  70  93 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72/
681
FXUS64 KMAF 252305
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
605 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Persistence rules with VFR conditions likely prevailing. A few
storms have developed in the higher terrain and may get close to
KPEQ and KFST before diminishing this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the
upper ridge extending across the srn CONUS, and forecast to remain
anchored in place over the next week.  The TUTT is now centered SE
of the Big Bend Area...further east than all the models depict.
Precip on the eastern side of the TUTT is way out in central Texas,
and w/the TUTT forecast to curve NE into central Texas over the next
couple of days, it appears this feature will yield little in the way
of precipitation for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Instead,
favored areas will remain over the western mtns in upslope return
flow.  Thus, higher POPs will remain over the western half of the FA.

Over the next few days, the TUTT is forecast to arc into central
Texas, then dive south deep into Mexico.  Although little rain is
expected from this, increased cloud cover and decreased thicknesses
should keep temps at or below normal thru midweek.  As the TUTT
moves further south, the upper ridge will shift to the 4 Corners,
allowing the thermal ridge to strengthen.  This will allow temps to
climb above-normal Thursday onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  90  69  93 /  10  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       72  97  70  94 /  10  30  30  20
Dryden                         75  96  74  93 /  20  30  20  10
Fort Stockton                  73  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 65  88  65  86 /  20  30  30  30
Hobbs                          70  91  66  91 /  10  30  30  20
Marfa                          64  88  62  87 /  30  40  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           74  92  70  94 /  10  20  20  10
Odessa                         74  93  71  94 /  10  20  20  20
Wink                           74  95  71  95 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
860
FXUS64 KMAF 251945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the
upper ridge extending across the srn CONUS, and forecast to remain
anchored in place over the next week.  The TUTT is now centered SE
of the Big Bend Area...further east than all the models depict.
Precip on the eastern side of the TUTT is way out in central Texas,
and w/the TUTT forecast to curve NE into central Texas over the next
couple of days, it appears this feature will yield little in the way
of precipitation for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Instead,
favored areas will remain over the western mtns in upslope return
flow.  Thus, higher POPs will remain over the western half of the FA.

Over the next few days, the TUTT is forecast to arc into central
Texas, then dive south deep into Mexico.  Although little rain is
expected from this, increased cloud cover and decreased thicknesses
should keep temps at or below normal thru midweek.  As the TUTT
moves further south, the upper ridge will shift to the 4 Corners,
allowing the thermal ridge to strengthen.  This will allow temps to
climb above-normal Thursday onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  90  69  93 /  10  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       72  97  70  94 /  10  30  30  20
Dryden                         75  96  74  93 /  20  30  20  10
Fort Stockton                  73  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 65  88  65  86 /  20  30  30  30
Hobbs                          70  91  66  91 /  10  30  30  20
Marfa                          64  88  62  87 /  30  40  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           74  92  70  94 /  10  20  20  10
Odessa                         74  93  71  94 /  10  20  20  20
Wink                           74  95  71  95 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/44
303
FXUS64 KMAF 251945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the
upper ridge extending across the srn CONUS, and forecast to remain
anchored in place over the next week.  The TUTT is now centered SE
of the Big Bend Area...further east than all the models depict.
Precip on the eastern side of the TUTT is way out in central Texas,
and w/the TUTT forecast to curve NE into central Texas over the next
couple of days, it appears this feature will yield little in the way
of precipitation for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Instead,
favored areas will remain over the western mtns in upslope return
flow.  Thus, higher POPs will remain over the western half of the FA.

Over the next few days, the TUTT is forecast to arc into central
Texas, then dive south deep into Mexico.  Although little rain is
expected from this, increased cloud cover and decreased thicknesses
should keep temps at or below normal thru midweek.  As the TUTT
moves further south, the upper ridge will shift to the 4 Corners,
allowing the thermal ridge to strengthen.  This will allow temps to
climb above-normal Thursday onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  90  69  93 /  10  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       72  97  70  94 /  10  30  30  20
Dryden                         75  96  74  93 /  20  30  20  10
Fort Stockton                  73  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 65  88  65  86 /  20  30  30  30
Hobbs                          70  91  66  91 /  10  30  30  20
Marfa                          64  88  62  87 /  30  40  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           74  92  70  94 /  10  20  20  10
Odessa                         74  93  71  94 /  10  20  20  20
Wink                           74  95  71  95 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/44
138
FXUS64 KMAF 251726
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...

Please see the 25/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all area terminals
through 26/18Z. A few models are suggesting MVFR cigs developing
at KMAF and KFST in the 26/12-15Z time range, but will not include
at this time as confidence is around 1:5 that this will occur.
Otherwise look for gusty SE winds to persist through the next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Gusty SE winds expected through much of
the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge centered over the Gulf coast stretches from the
Atlantic to the Pacific.  The center of this ridge will slowly drift
west becoming centered over the 4 corners region by Monday where it
will remain most of the week.

Temps were a little cooler yesterday as 850mb temps cooled... even
though Rio Grande village reached 108... expect near to a little
cooler again today.  Highs should be below normal Sunday through
Tuesday then increase through the end of the week as the ridge
returns.

A persistent S/SE surface flow will continue to pull moisture into
the region.  Rain chances pick up this weekend as a low wanders up
from Mexico with the best chance looking to be Sunday and Sunday
night.  In addition upslope flow should be enough to generate storms
over the Davis Mtns this afternoon/evening so have bumped up pops.
Rain chances decrease through the week as temperatures increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  71  91  71 /  10  10  20  20
Carlsbad                       97  70  94  70 /  10  10  30  30
Dryden                         96  73  93  72 /  10  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  94  70  90  70 /  10  20  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 93  65  84  64 /  20  20  30  30
Hobbs                          92  68  89  67 /  10  10  30  30
Marfa                          90  61  86  60 /  30  30  40  30
Midland Intl Airport           94  70  92  70 /  10  10  20  20
Odessa                         94  69  91  69 /  10  10  20  20
Wink                           97  71  94  71 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/44
908
FXUS64 KMAF 251116
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Gusty SE winds expected through much of
the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge centered over the Gulf coast stretches from the
Atlantic to the Pacific.  The center of this ridge will slowly drift
west becoming centered over the 4 corners region by Monday where it
will remain most of the week.

Temps were a little cooler yesterday as 850mb temps cooled... even
though Rio Grande village reached 108... expect near to a little
cooler again today.  Highs should be below normal Sunday through
Tuesday then increase through the end of the week as the ridge
returns.

A persistent S/SE surface flow will continue to pull moisture into
the region.  Rain chances pick up this weekend as a low wanders up
from Mexico with the best chance looking to be Sunday and Sunday
night.  In addition upslope flow should be enough to generate storms
over the Davis Mtns this afternoon/evening so have bumped up pops.
Rain chances decrease through the week as temperatures increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  71  91  71 /  10  10  20  20
Carlsbad                       97  70  94  70 /  10  10  30  30
Dryden                         96  73  93  72 /  10  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  94  70  90  70 /  10  20  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 93  65  84  64 /  20  20  30  30
Hobbs                          92  68  89  67 /  10  10  30  30
Marfa                          90  61  86  60 /  30  30  40  30
Midland Intl Airport           94  70  92  70 /  10  10  20  20
Odessa                         94  69  91  69 /  10  10  20  20
Wink                           97  71  94  71 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
236
FXUS64 KMAF 250850
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
350 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge centered over the Gulf coast stretches from the
Atlantic to the Pacific.  The center of this ridge will slowly drift
west becoming centered over the 4 corners region by Monday where it
will remain most of the week.

Temps were a little cooler yesterday as 850mb temps cooled... even
though Rio Grande village reached 108... expect near to a little
cooler again today.  Highs should be below normal Sunday through
Tuesday then increase through the end of the week as the ridge
returns.

A persistent S/SE surface flow will continue to pull moisture into
the region.  Rain chances pick up this weekend as a low wanders up
from Mexico with the best chance looking to be Sunday and Sunday
night.  In addition upslope flow should be enough to generate storms
over the Davis Mtns this afternoon/evening so have bumped up pops.
Rain chances decrease through the week as temperatures increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  71  91  71 /  10  10  20  20
Carlsbad                       97  70  94  70 /  10  10  30  30
Dryden                         96  73  93  72 /  10  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  94  70  90  70 /  10  20  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 93  65  84  64 /  20  20  30  30
Hobbs                          92  68  89  67 /  10  10  30  30
Marfa                          90  61  86  60 /  30  30  40  30
Midland Intl Airport           94  70  92  70 /  10  10  20  20
Odessa                         94  69  91  69 /  10  10  20  20
Wink                           97  71  94  71 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
106
FXUS64 KMAF 250521
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. SE winds 10-12kt sustained overnight
then gusts return by mid/late morning.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge extending across the srn CONUS, and
forecast to move very little over the next week.  However, an upper
trough/TUTT churning SW of Laredo may bring a little relief to West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico in the short term.  This feature is
forecast to curve northward over the next 24 hours, and enter the
Big Bend Area by Saturday afternoon.  It is then forecast to move
north thru the Permian Basin and then back towards central Texas
next week.  This should generally promote an increase in cloud
cover, and keep temperatures near normal into next week.  Best
precip chances should be on the eastern side of the trough,
especially Sunday/Sunday night, but equally decent chances will
remain over the western mtns in upslope flow each day.  However,
these upper troughs can be disappointing, so we`ll keep POPs at a
chance at best attm.

Otherwise, the upper ridge will center over the Gulf Coast states
for the first part of the forecast, then shift back to the Four
Corners next week w/the demise of the upper trough.  This will allow
for a warming trend in the extended, back to above-normal by
midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  93  71  91 /  10  30  30  20
Carlsbad                       72  96  70  91 /  10  30  30  30
Dryden                         73  95  72  93 /  10  30  30  20
Fort Stockton                  72  92  70  91 /  10  30  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 67  88  64  83 /  20  30  30  30
Hobbs                          71  91  67  88 /  10  30  30  30
Marfa                          63  88  62  84 /  20  40  30  50
Midland Intl Airport           73  94  70  92 /  10  30  30  20
Odessa                         72  93  69  91 /  10  30  30  20
Wink                           74  96  70  93 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
299
FXUS64 KMAF 242310
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will continue.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge extending across the srn CONUS, and
forecast to move very little over the next week.  However, an upper
trough/TUTT churning SW of Laredo may bring a little relief to West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico in the short term.  This feature is
forecast to curve northward over the next 24 hours, and enter the
Big Bend Area by Saturday afternoon.  It is then forecast to move
north thru the Permian Basin and then back towards central Texas
next week.  This should generally promote an increase in cloud
cover, and keep temperatures near normal into next week.  Best
precip chances should be on the eastern side of the trough,
especially Sunday/Sunday night, but equally decent chances will
remain over the western mtns in upslope flow each day.  However,
these upper troughs can be disappointing, so we`ll keep POPs at a
chance at best attm.

Otherwise, the upper ridge will center over the Gulf Coast states
for the first part of the forecast, then shift back to the Four
Corners next week w/the demise of the upper trough.  This will allow
for a warming trend in the extended, back to above-normal by
midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  94  74  93 /  10  10  10  30
Carlsbad                       68  98  72  96 /  10  10  10  30
Dryden                         75  97  73  95 /  10  10  10  30
Fort Stockton                  70  94  72  92 /  10  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 66  93  67  88 /  10  10  20  30
Hobbs                          67  92  71  91 /  10  10  10  30
Marfa                          62  90  63  88 /  10  10  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           68  94  73  94 /  10  10  10  30
Odessa                         69  94  72  93 /  10  10  10  30
Wink                           69  97  74  96 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
005
FXUS64 KMAF 241945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge extending across the srn CONUS, and
forecast to move very little over the next week.  However, an upper
trough/TUTT churning SW of Laredo may bring a little relief to West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico in the short term.  This feature is
forecast to curve northward over the next 24 hours, and enter the
Big Bend Area by Saturday afternoon.  It is then forecast to move
north thru the Permian Basin and then back towards central Texas
next week.  This should generally promote an increase in cloud
cover, and keep temperatures near normal into next week.  Best
precip chances should be on the eastern side of the trough,
especially Sunday/Sunday night, but equally decent chances will
remain over the western mtns in upslope flow each day.  However,
these upper troughs can be disappointing, so we`ll keep POPs at a
chance at best attm.

Otherwise, the upper ridge will center over the Gulf Coast states
for the first part of the forecast, then shift back to the Four
Corners next week w/the demise of the upper trough.  This will allow
for a warming trend in the extended, back to above-normal by
midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  94  74  93 /  10  10  10  30
Carlsbad                       68  98  72  96 /  10  10  10  30
Dryden                         75  97  73  95 /  10  10  10  30
Fort Stockton                  70  94  72  92 /  10  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 66  93  67  88 /  10  10  20  30
Hobbs                          67  92  71  91 /  10  10  10  30
Marfa                          62  90  63  88 /  10  10  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           68  94  73  94 /  10  10  10  30
Odessa                         69  94  72  93 /  10  10  10  30
Wink                           69  97  74  96 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/44
280
FXUS64 KMAF 241709
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1209 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
elevated with some gusts out of the southeast this afternoon and
early evening before weakening overnight. Winds will once again
become elevated out of the southeast later Saturday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The sub tropical ridge will continue to dominate wx pattern for the
coming week.  Therefor expect little change from recent summertime
pattern.  Weak disturbances will move off the Gulf and track
westward moving under the center of the ridge and could help produce
some rain.

Yesterday Presidio was 106 and Rio Grande Village was 110.  It
should be a few degrees cooler there today but still well over the
century mark along the Rio Grande.  Slowly decreasing 850mb temps
should result in temperatures closer to normal today and
Saturday.  By Sunday and Monday temps may fall below normal.

At the surface the wind will remain out of the S to SE which will
keep low level moisture elevated.  Overall not much expecting much
in way of rain.  Did have some weak storms pop up during the early
morning over SE NM down to near Van Horn.  Current forecast has some
low pops this morning mainly bordering the western edge of the CWA
and again Saturday and Saturday night.  On Sunday and Monday these
pops expand east into the Permian Basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  71  92  71 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       99  69  97  69 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         96  74  95  74 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  95  71  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 92  67  90  67 /  20  10  20  20
Hobbs                          94  68  92  67 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          91  60  89  61 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           95  71  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         94  71  93  72 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           97  72  96  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
737
FXUS64 KMAF 241111
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
611 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Had a few storms affect CNM early
this morning but activity has diminished greatly in the last hour.
Otherwise, gusty SE winds return to TAF sites by mid day today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The sub tropical ridge will continue to dominate wx pattern for the
coming week.  Therefor expect little change from recent summertime
pattern.  Weak disturbances will move off the Gulf and track
westward moving under the center of the ridge and could help produce
some rain.

Yesterday Presidio was 106 and Rio Grande Village was 110.  It
should be a few degrees cooler there today but still well over the
century mark along the Rio Grande.  Slowly decreasing 850mb temps
should result in temperatures closer to normal today and
Saturday.  By Sunday and Monday temps may fall below normal.

At the surface the wind will remain out of the S to SE which will
keep low level moisture elevated.  Overall not much expecting much
in way of rain.  Did have some weak storms pop up during the early
morning over SE NM down to near Van Horn.  Current forecast has some
low pops this morning mainly bordering the western edge of the CWA
and again Saturday and Saturday night.  On Sunday and Monday these
pops expand east into the Permian Basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  71  92  71 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       99  69  97  69 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         96  74  95  74 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  95  71  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 92  67  90  67 /  20  10  20  20
Hobbs                          94  68  92  67 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          91  60  89  61 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           95  71  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         94  71  93  72 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           97  72  96  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
577
FXUS64 KMAF 240836
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
336 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The sub tropical ridge will continue to dominate wx pattern for the
coming week.  Therefor expect little change from recent summertime
pattern.  Weak disturbances will move off the Gulf and track
westward moving under the center of the ridge and could help produce
some rain.

Yesterday Presidio was 106 and Rio Grande Village was 110.  It
should be a few degrees cooler there today but still well over the
century mark along the Rio Grande.  Slowly decreasing 850mb temps
should result in temperatures closer to normal today and
Saturday.  By Sunday and Monday temps may fall below normal.

At the surface the wind will remain out of the S to SE which will
keep low level moisture elevated.  Overall not much expecting much
in way of rain.  Did have some weak storms pop up during the early
morning over SE NM down to near Van Horn.  Current forecast has some
low pops this morning mainly bordering the western edge of the CWA
and again Saturday and Saturday night.  On Sunday and Monday these
pops expand east into the Permian Basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  71  92  71 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       99  69  97  69 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         96  74  95  74 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  95  71  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 92  67  90  67 /  20  10  20  20
Hobbs                          94  68  92  67 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          91  60  89  61 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           95  71  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         94  71  93  72 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           97  72  96  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
404
FXUS64 KMAF 240527
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1227 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Wind gusts subsiding tonight then
gusts return to TAF sites by mid day today.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fairly quiet weather pattern with near normal temperatures will
continue through Saturday as an upper level low pressure system
across southern Mexico moves northwestward toward the Big Bend
Region. Precipitation chances for the most part will be limited
through Saturday due to the forecast area residing on the western
or subsident side of the system. The exception may be the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains where intense heating on the higher terrain
combined with southeasterly upslope flow could allow isolated
diurnal driven thunderstorms to form.

The chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms will be
on the increase Sunday and Monday as the upper low passes by to
the south, as it moves slowly westward near the Rio Grande River.
By this time the forecast area will reside on the eastern or more
moister laden side of the system. The Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains will have the best chance of precipitation as upslope
flow enhances lift. Temperatures are expected to cool to slightly
below normal values as the upper ridge gets undercut by the upper
low.

For next Tuesday through Thursday precipitation chances will be
on the decrease again with increasing temperatures as the upper
level ridge reasserts itself over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  92  71  91 /   0   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       68  97  69  94 /  10  10  10  20
Dryden                         74  93  74  92 /   0  10  10  20
Fort Stockton                  70  94  71  91 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 67  90  67  87 /  10  20  20  20
Hobbs                          68  92  67  90 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                          60  89  63  87 /  10  20  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           70  94  72  92 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         71  93  72  92 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           72  96  72  94 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
229
FXUS64 KMAF 232338
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
638 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will continue to prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fairly quiet weather pattern with near normal temperatures will
continue through Saturday as an upper level low pressure system
across southern Mexico moves northwestward toward the Big Bend
Region. Precipitation chances for the most part will be limited
through Saturday due to the forecast area residing on the western
or subsident side of the system. The exception may be the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains where intense heating on the higher terrain
combined with southeasterly upslope flow could allow isolated
diurnal driven thunderstorms to form.

The chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms will be
on the increase Sunday and Monday as the upper low passes by to
the south, as it moves slowly westward near the Rio Grande River.
By this time the forecast area will reside on the eastern or more
moister laden side of the system. The Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains will have the best chance of precipitation as upslope
flow enhances lift. Temperatures are expected to cool to slightly
below normal values as the upper ridge gets undercut by the upper
low.

For next Tuesday through Thursday precipitation chances will be
on the decrease again with increasing temperatures as the upper
level ridge reasserts itself over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  93  72  92 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       71  99  68  97 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         73  96  74  93 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  71  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  93  67  90 /  10  20  10  20
Hobbs                          68  94  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          64  92  60  89 /  10  10  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           72  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  94  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           73  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
220
FXUS64 KMAF 231933
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
233 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Fairly quiet weather pattern with near normal temperatures will
continue through Saturday as an upper level low pressure system
across southern Mexico moves northwestward toward the Big Bend
Region. Precipitation chances for the most part will be limited
through Saturday due to the forecast area residing on the western
or subsident side of the system. The exception may be the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains where intense heating on the higher terrain
combined with southeasterly upslope flow could allow isolated
diurnal driven thunderstorms to form.

The chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms will be
on the increase Sunday and Monday as the upper low passes by to
the south, as it moves slowly westward near the Rio Grande River.
By this time the forecast area will reside on the eastern or more
moister laden side of the system. The Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains will have the best chance of precipitation as upslope
flow enhances lift. Temperatures are expected to cool to slightly
below normal values as the upper ridge gets undercut by the upper
low.

For next Tuesday through Thursday precipitation chances will be
on the decrease again with increasing temperatures as the upper
level ridge reasserts itself over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  93  72  92 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       71  99  68  97 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         73  96  74  93 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  71  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  93  67  90 /  10  20  10  20
Hobbs                          68  94  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          64  92  60  89 /  10  10  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           72  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  94  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           73  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/12
671
FXUS64 KMAF 231552
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1052 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by early afternoon over SE
NM, w/bases ~ 10 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 604 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
An outflow boundary from storms in northeastern NM has moved
through CNM and HOB and will arrive at MAF 12-13Z. The wind shift
will be weak and brief at MAF and has not been included in the TAF
though aviation interests should be aware of a wind shift from the
northeast for about an hour of about 5kts. Otherwise southeast
winds will prevail this TAF period along with VFR conditions.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Not much change to the previous forecast with fairly uneventful
weather expect the next few days. Upper ridging will remain broadly
draped over the southern ConUS today and should be strong enough
to keep mountain convection at bay. High temperatures will be
slightly cooler (by a degree or two) today with afternoon readings
ranging from the mid 90s across the Permian Basin, Lower Trans
Pecos and higher terrain to 100-105 across southeast New Mexico,
Upper Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley. The upper ridge will
begin to weaken overhead on Friday as an easterly wave/inverted
trough edges northward toward SW TX. Lower heights along with
persistent SE/upslope flow and mid level moisture in place along
the higher terrain may be enough to generate some
afternoon/evening convection across the mountain regions.

Saturday looks to be very similar to Friday with very little
northward progression of the inverted trough expected. Only thing
worth mentioning is better chances for mountain convection given
slightly lower heights, persistent upslope flow and increased
moisture. Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday and Monday
generally across the higher terrain and southern zones as the
inverted trough moves into SW TX. Temperatures will be cooler during
this time given increased rain chances and cloud cover. Expect highs
in the low to mid 90s most areas. Meanwhile, the upper ridge will
strengthen over the Four Corners region with dry and warming
conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  69  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      103  69 100  69 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                        100  72  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                 100  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 98  69  94  69 /  10  10  20  20
Hobbs                          98  66  95  67 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          96  63  93  63 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           99  70  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  70  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          102  71  98  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/12/44
736
FXUS64 KMAF 231104
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
604 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
An outflow boundary from storms in northeastern NM has moved
through CNM and HOB and will arrive at MAF 12-13Z. The wind shift
will be weak and brief at MAF and has not been included in the TAF
though aviation interests should be aware of a wind shift from the
northeast for about an hour of about 5kts. Otherwise southeast
winds will prevail this TAF period along with VFR conditions.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Not much change to the previous forecast with fairly uneventful
weather expect the next few days. Upper ridging will remain broadly
draped over the southern ConUS today and should be strong enough
to keep mountain convection at bay. High temperatures will be
slightly cooler (by a degree or two) today with afternoon readings
ranging from the mid 90s across the Permian Basin, Lower Trans
Pecos and higher terrain to 100-105 across southeast New Mexico,
Upper Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley. The upper ridge will
begin to weaken overhead on Friday as an easterly wave/inverted
trough edges northward toward SW TX. Lower heights along with
persistent SE/upslope flow and mid level moisture in place along
the higher terrain may be enough to generate some
afternoon/evening convection across the mountain regions.

Saturday looks to be very similar to Friday with very little
northward progression of the inverted trough expected. Only thing
worth mentioning is better chances for mountain convection given
slightly lower heights, persistent upslope flow and increased
moisture. Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday and Monday
generally across the higher terrain and southern zones as the
inverted trough moves into SW TX. Temperatures will be cooler during
this time given increased rain chances and cloud cover. Expect highs
in the low to mid 90s most areas. Meanwhile, the upper ridge will
strengthen over the Four Corners region with dry and warming
conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  69  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      103  69 100  69 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                        100  72  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                 100  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 98  69  94  69 /  10  10  20  20
Hobbs                          98  66  95  67 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          96  63  93  63 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           99  70  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  70  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          102  71  98  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
770
FXUS64 KMAF 230822
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
322 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Not much change to the previous forecast with fairly uneventful
weather expect the next few days. Upper ridging will remain broadly
draped over the southern ConUS today and should be strong enough
to keep mountain convection at bay. High temperatures will be
slightly cooler (by a degree or two) today with afternoon readings
ranging from the mid 90s across the Permian Basin, Lower Trans
Pecos and higher terrain to 100-105 across southeast New Mexico,
Upper Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley. The upper ridge will
begin to weaken overhead on Friday as an easterly wave/inverted
trough edges northward toward SW TX. Lower heights along with
persistent SE/upslope flow and mid level moisture in place along
the higher terrain may be enough to generate some
afternoon/evening convection across the mountain regions.

Saturday looks to be very similar to Friday with very little
northward progression of the inverted trough expected. Only thing
worth mentioning is better chances for mountain convection given
slightly lower heights, persistent upslope flow and increased
moisture. Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday and Monday
generally across the higher terrain and southern zones as the
inverted trough moves into SW TX. Temperatures will be cooler during
this time given increased rain chances and cloud cover. Expect highs
in the low to mid 90s most areas. Meanwhile, the upper ridge will
strengthen over the Four Corners region with dry and warming
conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  69  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      103  69 100  69 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                        100  72  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                 100  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 98  69  94  69 /  10  10  20  20
Hobbs                          98  66  95  67 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          96  63  93  63 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           99  70  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  70  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          102  71  98  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/27
132
FXUS64 KMAF 230502
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1202 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and modest southeast winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Quiet weather pattern will continue through Saturday as upper
level high pressure dominates the region. Slightly cooling
forecast at 850 millibars suggest high temperatures should
cool to near normal values beneath the ridge. Intense heating on
the higher terrain combined with southeasterly upslope flow and
fairly cool 700 millibar temperatures could allow diurnal driven
isolated thunderstorms to form in the Guadalupe and or Davis
Mountains through Saturday.

For Sunday and Monday an upper level low pressure system is
forecast to track westward from the western Gulf of Mexico toward
the Big Bend Region. This would tend to undercut the ridge over
the area and allow for near to even slightly below normal
high temperatures. In addition the chance for showers and
thunderstorms will increase particularly across the Big Bend
Region and the Guadalupe Mountains as the system approaches and
passes by to south.

Precipitation chances with increasing temperatures look in the
offing next Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level ridge
reasserts itself.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  92  70  94 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       69  97  69  99 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         72  94  73  95 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  70  93  71  94 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 70  91  69  91 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                          67  93  67  94 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  90  63  91 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  94  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         71  93  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           72  96  72  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
593
FXUS64 KMAF 222249
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
549 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Elevated
southeast winds will weaken slightly overnight then again become
elevated out of the southeast Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Quiet weather pattern will continue through Saturday as upper
level high pressure dominates the region. Slightly cooling
forecast at 850 millibars suggest high temperatures should
cool to near normal values beneath the ridge. Intense heating on
the higher terrain combined with southeasterly upslope flow and
fairly cool 700 millibar temperatures could allow diurnal driven
isolated thunderstorms to form in the Guadalupe and or Davis
Mountains through Saturday.

For Sunday and Monday an upper level low pressure system is
forecast to track westward from the western Gulf of Mexico toward
the Big Bend Region. This would tend to undercut the ridge over
the area and allow for near to even slightly below normal
high temperatures. In addition the chance for showers and
thunderstorms will increase particularly across the Big Bend
Region and the Guadalupe Mountains as the system approaches and
passes by to south.

Precipitation chances with increasing temperatures look in the
offing next Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level ridge
reasserts itself.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  96  70  92 /   0  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       69 102  69  97 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         72  94  72  94 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  72  99  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 70  95  70  91 /  10  10  20  10
Hobbs                          68  99  67  93 /   0  10  10   0
Marfa                          61  95  62  90 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           71  95  70  94 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         72  95  71  93 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           73 101  72  96 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
045
FXUS64 KMAF 221922
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
222 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Quiet weather pattern will continue through Saturday as upper
level high pressure dominates the region. Slightly cooling
forecast at 850 millibars suggest high temperatures should
cool to near normal values beneath the ridge. Intense heating on
the higher terrain combined with southeasterly upslope flow and
fairly cool 700 millibar temperatures could allow diurnal driven
isolated thunderstorms to form in the Guadalupe and or Davis
Mountains through Saturday.

For Sunday and Monday an upper level low pressure system is
forecast to track westward from the western Gulf of Mexico toward
the Big Bend Region. This would tend to undercut the ridge over
the area and allow for near to even slightly below normal
high temperatures. In addition the chance for showers and
thunderstorms will increase particularly across the Big Bend
Region and the Guadalupe Mountains as the system approaches and
passes by to south.

Precipitation chances with increasing temperatures look in the
offing next Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level ridge
reasserts itself.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  96  70  92 /   0  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       69 102  69  97 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         72  94  72  94 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  72  99  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 70  95  70  91 /  10  10  20  10
Hobbs                          68  99  67  93 /   0  10  10   0
Marfa                          61  95  62  90 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           71  95  70  94 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         72  95  71  93 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           73 101  72  96 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/12
778
FXUS64 KMAF 221115
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
615 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light and occasionally gusty southeast winds
will continue the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Not much change to the previous forecast with fairly uneventful
weather expect the next several days. We will remain under the
influence of a broad upper ridge through Friday, with thunderstorm
chances generally confined to the higher terrain regions. Slightly
drier air at the surface and 850mb thermal ridge will edge east
today, resulting in high temperatures near or above 100 across much
of SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Much of the same can be expected
Thursday then a few degrees cooler Friday through the weekend.

Models continue to show an easterly wave heading NW out of Mexico
toward west Texas this weekend, splitting the upper ridge to the
east and west of the forecast area. This way could potentially
bringing rain chances back to southern portions of the CWA Sunday
and Monday. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave moving south through eastern
NM may generate some convection that could move south into northwest
zones Sunday night. Otherwise, cooler high temperatures expected
Sunday through the beginning of next work week with highs in the low
to mid 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      102  69 102  70 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         98  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  99  71  99  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 95  71  96  70 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          98  68  98  68 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          92  63  94  62 /  10   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           99  72  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         98  73  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          101  73 101  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
586
FXUS64 KMAF 220840
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
340 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Not much change to the previous forecast with fairly uneventful
weather expect the next several days. We will remain under the
influence of a broad upper ridge through Friday, with thunderstorm
chances generally confined to the higher terrain regions. Slightly
drier air at the surface and 850mb thermal ridge will edge east
today, resulting in high temperatures near or above 100 across much
of SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Much of the same can be expected
Thursday then a few degrees cooler Friday through the weekend.

Models continue to show an easterly wave heading NW out of Mexico
toward west Texas this weekend, splitting the upper ridge to the
east and west of the forecast area. This way could potentially
bringing rain chances back to southern portions of the CWA Sunday
and Monday. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave moving south through eastern
NM may generate some convection that could move south into northwest
zones Sunday night. Otherwise, cooler high temperatures expected
Sunday through the beginning of next work week with highs in the low
to mid 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      102  69 102  70 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         98  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  99  71  99  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 95  71  96  70 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          98  68  98  68 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          92  63  94  62 /  10   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           99  72  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         98  73  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          101  73 101  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/27
482
FXUS64 KMAF 220509
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1209 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with light and occasionally gusty southeas winds
expected this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 157 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016/

Quiet weather pattern will continue through Saturday as upper level
high pressure dominates the region. 850 millibar temperature forecasts
suggest above normal temperatures are in the offing beneath the
ridge through Saturday. Intense heating on the higher terrain combined
with southeasterly upslope flow and fairly cool 700 millibar temperatures
could allow diurnal driven isolated thunderstorms to form in the
Guadalupe and or Davis Mountains through Saturday.

Beyond Saturday through early next week, an upper level low pressure
system is forecast to track westward from the western Gulf of
Mexico toward the Big Bend Region. This would tend to undercut the
ridge over the area and allow for high temperatures to cool to
more normal values Sunday through next Tuesday. In addition the
chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase particularly
across the Big Bend Region as the system approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  97  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       70 103  69 100 /   0  10  20   0
Dryden                         72  98  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72  99  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  97  68  93 /  10  10  20  10
Hobbs                          69  98  66  95 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          60  95  60  92 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           73  98  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         74  98  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74 101  72  98 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
326
FXUS64 KMAF 212246
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
546 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

An h85 low level jet will increase to around 40kt over the region
this evening and result in gusty winds at most area terminals as
late as 22/07Z before moving off to the north of the region late.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals
tonight and Wednesday.

67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 157 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016/

Quiet weather pattern will continue through Saturday as upper level
high pressure dominates the region. 850 millibar temperature forecasts
suggest above normal temperatures are in the offing beneath the
ridge through Saturday. Intense heating on the higher terrain combined
with southeasterly upslope flow and fairly cool 700 millibar temperatures
could allow diurnal driven isolated thunderstorms to form in the
Guadalupe and or Davis Mountains through Saturday.

Beyond Saturday through early next week, an upper level low pressure
system is forecast to track westward from the western Gulf of
Mexico toward the Big Bend Region. This would tend to undercut the
ridge over the area and allow for high temperatures to cool to
more normal values Sunday through next Tuesday. In addition the
chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase particularly
across the Big Bend Region as the system approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  96  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       70 101  70 103 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                         73  98  72  98 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  73  99  72  99 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 68  93  71  97 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          68  98  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          63  91  60  95 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           71  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/12
333
FXUS64 KMAF 211857
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
157 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Quiet weather pattern will continue through Saturday as upper level
high pressure dominates the region. 850 millibar temperature forecasts
suggest above normal temperatures are in the offing beneath the
ridge through Saturday. Intense heating on the higher terrain combined
with southeasterly upslope flow and fairly cool 700 millibar temperatures
could allow diurnal driven isolated thunderstorms to form in the
Guadalupe and or Davis Mountains through Saturday.

Beyond Saturday through early next week, an upper level low pressure
system is forecast to track westward from the western Gulf of
Mexico toward the Big Bend Region. This would tend to undercut the
ridge over the area and allow for high temperatures to cool to
more normal values Sunday through next Tuesday. In addition the
chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase particularly
across the Big Bend Region as the system approaches.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  96  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       70 101  70 103 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                         73  98  72  98 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  73  99  72  99 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 68  93  71  97 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          68  98  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          63  91  60  95 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           71  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/12
043
FXUS64 KMAF 211741
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1241 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
No significant weather is expected across southeast New Mexico
or southwest Texas through Wednesday morning. VFR conditions are
forecast for all area terminals. Winds are expected to be south
to southeast at 10 to 12 knots with some gusts expected this
afternoon into the evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 607 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Summer is the season of the upper ridge and the next seven days
are no exception. The best you can hope for is to avoid having the
high pressure center overhead, which we thankfully manage to do
for the most part. High pressure will remain centered over the
four corners region through the end of the week with an
occasional wobble to the east. That will leave southwest Texas and
southeast New Mexico under a general deep easterly or southerly
flow keeping temperatures near or only slightly above normal.
About the only chance for rain will be isolated storms in the
Davis and Guadalupe Mountains.

Several models are showing an easterly wave may move into eastern
Mexico from the Gulf and move northward towards our area by the
weekend. The increase in moisture and cooler temperatures aloft
could provide enough instability for more widely scattered showers
and storms by Sunday, but easterly waves are notoriously hard to
predict so confidence in any rainfall is still low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  96  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72 102  70 103 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         73  99  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  73 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 68  94  71  97 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          69  99  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          65  92  60  95 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           72  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74 102  74 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/05
581
FXUS64 KMAF 211107
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
607 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Summer is the season of the upper ridge and the next seven days
are no exception. The best you can hope for is to avoid having the
high pressure center overhead, which we thankfully manage to do
for the most part. High pressure will remain centered over the
four corners region through the end of the week with an
occasional wobble to the east. That will leave southwest Texas and
southeast New Mexico under a general deep easterly or southerly
flow keeping temperatures near or only slightly above normal.
About the only chance for rain will be isolated storms in the
Davis and Guadalupe Mountains.

Several models are showing an easterly wave may move into eastern
Mexico from the Gulf and move northward towards our area by the
weekend. The increase in moisture and cooler temperatures aloft
could provide enough instability for more widely scattered showers
and storms by Sunday, but easterly waves are notoriously hard to
predict so confidence in any rainfall is still low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  72  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       96  72 102  70 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         96  73  99  72 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  96  73 100  72 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 90  68  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          94  69  99  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          89  65  92  60 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           94  72  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         94  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           97  74 102  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/10
738
FXUS64 KMAF 210817
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
317 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Summer is the season of the upper ridge and the next seven days
are no exception. The best you can hope for is to avoid having the
high pressure center overhead, which we thankfully manage to do
for the most part. High pressure will remain centered over the
four corners region through the end of the week with an
occasional wobble to the east. That will leave southwest Texas and
southeast New Mexico under a general deep easterly or southerly
flow keeping temperatures near or only slightly above normal.
About the only chance for rain will be isolated storms in the
Davis and Guadalupe Mountains.

Several models are showing an easterly wave may move into eastern
Mexico from the Gulf and move northward towards our area by the
weekend. The increase in moisture and cooler temperatures aloft
could provide enough instability for more widely scattered showers
and storms by Sunday, but easterly waves are notoriously hard to
predict so confidence in any rainfall is still low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  72  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       96  72 102  70 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         96  73  99  72 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  96  73 100  72 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 90  68  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          94  69  99  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          89  65  92  60 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           94  72  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         94  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           97  74 102  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/10

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