Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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737
FXUS64 KMAF 120857
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
357 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure area centered near Baja will move toward
west Texas today and tonight and then move only very slowly across
the Permian Basin and Texas Panhandle Monday through Monday night.
As this system approaches through tonight, the chance of showers
and thunderstorms will increase areawide. The best chance of
showers and thunderstorms appears to be Monday as a southward
moving cold front provides an additional focus for precipitation.
Prefer the quicker higher resolution guidance (arw,nmm,nam) with
the cold front and precipitation on Monday. Much cooler temperatures
are expected Monday behind the front with the precipitation and
later shifts may need to lower high temperatures if current trends
in the guidance continue. More wraparound precipitation expected
Monday night as the upper low departs into the Texas Panhandle.
By Tuesday the upper low will finally move away from the region
with a lingering chance of showers expected in the extreme
northeastern Permian Basin. It will remain cool with cyclonic
flow remaining over the forecast area.

By next Wednesday the next upper low is forecast to dig into
the Rockies from the Pacific northwest. A surface trough/dry line
is forecast to become established again in the southwesterly flow
aloft across the central and or eastern Permian Basin. Temperatures
should warm again to above normal values with the formation of the
surface trough/dry line. A few thunderstorms can not be ruled out
along the surface trough/dry line Wednesday afternoon but confidence
in placement of the dry line is low so left the forecast dry for
now. By Wednesday night through Thursday night the upper low is
forecast to slowly continue to dig across the southern Rockies. As
the upper low approaches the forecast area upper level forcing
will increase and confidence is high enough to mention a slight
chance of thunderstorms most areas these periods.

For Friday through Saturday the upper low is forecast to meander
around either the Rockies or the western high plains. Since guidance
has not reached a consensus on the track of this system yet will
leave dry for now these days but later shifts will need to
monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  52  66  48  /  40  40  60  40
BIG SPRING TX              80  54  67  54  /  40  50  60  50
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  67  47  /  30  40  70  30
DRYDEN TX                  80  58  79  59  /  50  40  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           78  52  73  52  /  50  20  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  46  59  45  /  30  30  60  20
HOBBS NM                   75  49  62  46  /  30  40  70  40
MARFA TX                   67  44  64  41  /  40  20  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    79  54  69  50  /  50  40  50  40
ODESSA TX                  78  53  68  51  /  50  30  50  40
WINK TX                    80  51  70  51  /  40  20  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12

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