Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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213
FXUS64 KMAF 230538
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1138 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2015


.AVIATION...
Difficult flying conditions will continue through Monday. IFR to
occasionally LIFR cigs and vsbys will be the rule into the morning
before low clouds slowly lift by afternoon. Freezing rain and sleet
are expected to develop within the next few hours across the area.
Precipitation is expected to taper off by late morning with freezing
drizzle possible into the afternoon. Strong northeast winds will
also subside through the night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2015/

UPDATE...

This is a quick update to lower temperatures tonight a few
degrees. This will likely take wind chill values to near zero
across northern parts of the Permian Basin by morning. Have also
increased PoPs across the region for overnight into the morning
hours as confidence continues to increase in the next round of
wintry precip headed our way. Models show precip becoming
widespread just after midnight and moving off to the northeast.
Ice accumulations in the grids still look on track with near a
quarter inch of freezing rain possible across the Western Low
Rolling Plains with less as you head southwest.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Busy day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, weatherwise.
WV imagery shows the west coast upper trough has amplified westward
as advertised, and sits over central CA, resulting in SW flow aloft
over the region.  At the sfc, analysis shows that the front has made
it almost to KPRS, w/5mb/3 hr pressure rises noted near KINK.
Gradient should remain sufficient enough for gap winds at KGDP
overnight, and a High Wind Warning covers this.  Isentropic upglide
has commenced, and is expected to increase flow just abv the front
continues veering to the south.  KMAF radar is showing modest echoes
for winter precip...but is overshooting most of it.  KATS, KCNM, and
KHOB have all reported -SN over the past couple of hours.  However,
IR imagery shows the higher, colder clouds moving NE out of the
area, which jives w/NAM forecast soundings, which dry out the upper
column somewhat over the next few hours, taking saturation out of
the dendritic growth zones.  Instead, forecast soundings all point to
mainly a FZRA event, w/FZRA extending to south of K6R6 by 12Z
Monday.  Over the north central zones the coldest intrusion is
expected overnight, w/NAM H85 temps of -10 to -12C dipping into the
Wrn Low Rolling Plains.  This will favoring more of a FZRA/IP mix.
From 12-18Z Monday, a little SN might even develop into Lea County.
However, total snow accumulations are expected to be less than an
inch.  More problematic will be ice.  QPFs have not changed much
over the past 24 hours, so the Winter Wx Advisory won`t need
expanding.  However, a few counties in the upper Colorado River
Valley could see storm total ice accumulations exceeding 1/4", so we
will upgrade those to a warning for this issuance.  Regardless, any
ice accumulations will be hazardous, especially for Monday morning
commuters.  Temps will not warm much Monday, especially NE, where
they should remain blo freezing.  Thus, even though precip is
expected to taper to drizzle/freezing drizzle Monday afternoon, icy
surfaces will linger.  For this reason, we will extend the
advisories/warnings thru 00Z Tuesday.  Later shifts may have to
extend it even further, as areas NE won`t climb abv freezing until
Tuesday.

Otherwise, the west coast trough will open, shear, and begin moving
east Monday night, and move thru West Texas/SE NM Tuesday night.
Temps will warm thru midweek, topping out just blo normal Wednesday
afternoon.  A cold front will move thru the area Thursday, bringing
resulting in another shot of winter precip Thursday night/Friday,
before temperatures warm back to abv normal by
Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Monday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Dawson...Mitchell...Scurry.


&&

$$

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