532
FXUS64 KMAF 111130
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
630 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR TS WILL BE FST WHERE
IT IS MENTIONED IN A TEMPO GROUP.
HENNIG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL MEXICO WILL
CUTOFF AND VERY GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
BAJA BY MONDAY EVENING. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW GREATLY FAVORS
AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER WITH THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN WEAK
SHEAR VALUES AND CAPES GENERALLY REMAINING WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND THE BIG BEND
WHERE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
FINALLY GET KICKED EAST BY THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE
OF THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY TUESDAY TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO ALSO
INCLUDE THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS.
ABOVE TO MUCH NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING
DEVELOPING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND THIS WILL IMPACT WHERE
THE DRYLINE/MOISTURE EVENTUALLY SETS UP AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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