Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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694
FXUS64 KMAF 310509
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1209 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the going forecast, as persistence rules.  WV
imagery shows the col over Texas splitting the upper ridge over the
southern CONUS remains this afternoon, but appears weaker than 24
hours ago.  Models continue this trend over the next few days,
strengthening the ridge and centering it over the Gulf Coast by
Monday afternoon.  This will favor a gradual increase in temps
through at least midweek, before temps drop off slightly as the
ridge centers over the SE CONUS.  Temps should remain above-normal
into the extended, with KMAF on day 27 of its 38-day climatological
maximum. For whatever reason, the NAM/MET has been running too cool
on temps as of late, and the warmer GFS/MAV numbers are preferred.

Rain chances remain low, and confined mainly to the higher terrain.
Models bring a theta-e trough through West Texas later in the week,
but this stays mainly over the lower terrain, so the wrn mountains
will still be in play. Area radars show convection currently trying
to develop over the SW zones, but struggling.  With the ridge
remaining in place, this looks to play out each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  99  69  99 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       73  99  72  98 /  10  20  10  20
Dryden                         72 101  72  99 /  10  20  10   0
Fort Stockton                  71  99  72  99 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 68  91  68  88 /  20  20  20  30
Hobbs                          72  96  69  96 /  10  10  10  20
Marfa                          62  89  63  90 /  20  30  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           76  97  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         76  96  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           77  98  73  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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